Last week on the "Football Diehards" podcast that I
co-host with JJ Wenner, I laid out my draft plan for early
(1-4), middle
(5-8) and late
(9-12) draft slots. We spent about 30-40 minutes talking about
each area of the draft. Please check it out.
"My Guys" At Pick 100 or Later
RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt, WAS - ACTIVATE THE
BILL CROSKEY-MERRITT HIVE!! (Or whatever the kids say nowadays.)
He debuted at No. 200 on last
week's PPR Big Board because I knew he had to be on my board.
I also had a great feeling he would emerge as the starting running
back for the Commanders, but there did not appear to be a realistic
path to it happening before Week 1. The stunner was the news over
the weekend that Washington is listening to trade offers for Brian
Robinson Jr. It is not so much the notion that Robinson is on
the block that should get folks excited; it is the fact that Washington
made it public that he is available and Croskey-Merritt is having
a great camp. So why the buzz about a seventh-round draft pick?
Because he should never have been available that late.
The primary reason Croskey-Merritt was still available until
late in the 2025 draft was a ridiculous jersey number confusion
issue during his time at Alabama State and being part of a deep
draft class at running back. The NCAA determined that his 2019
season at Alabama State was not a redshirt year as originally
classified, making him ineligible for the 2024 season with Arizona,
which led to him sitting out all but one game in his final year.
He did not land on my radar until I saw him at the East-West Shrine
Game. To say he played at a different speed than everyone else
in that game might be an understatement. Bringing it back to this
summer, it now seems clear he has convinced the Commanders that
he gives them an explosive element that Robinson cannot. There
is a very real possibility that this ranking is too low if/when
Robinson is traded/waived. If Robinson is jettisoned over the
next two weeks, it feels relatively safe to project JCM for Robinson's
early-down workload (but do more with it) with Chris Rodriguez
mixing in on occasion every third series or so. Austin Ekeler
will continue to handle most of the passing-down work.
WR Demario Douglas, NE - As I noted earlier
with Hunter Henry, the offensive environment in New England last
year was awful. Like every Patriot, Douglas was sucked into the
black hole. While his statistics improved in 2024 (66-621-3 versus
49-561-0 as a rookie in 2023), there was little rhyme or reason
to when Douglas was worth starting in fantasy. The consistency
of his targets seemed to get better once Drake Maye took over,
but former OC Alex Van Pelt never quite figured out how to utilize
his talents consistently. That should not be a problem under new
OC Josh McDaniels, who has made a living of peppering his slot
receivers with targets.
It does not say here that Douglas is the next Wes Welker, Julian
Edelman or Jakobi Meyers. What it will say here is that "Pop"
is nearly impossible to cover one-on-one when he gets a free release,
which is something he is almost guaranteed to see as the primary
slot option in New England. Expect McDaniels to take advantage
of Douglas' quickness in a way Van Pelt could not, in part because
of how much better New England's offensive line should be this
season. Stefon Diggs will undoubtedly steal some of Douglas' snaps
inside, but I doubt it will be enough to keep Douglas from setting
career highs across the board. He may never be much of a red zone
threat, but 80-catch upside - even if it comes the way Wan'Dale
Robinson delivered it last year - usually plays in PPR leagues.
RB Trey Benson, ARI - As a player I ranked as
my RB56 on my final PPR draft
board last summer, I did not have many shares of Benson in
his rookie year. (It's not personal, it's just business.) Lo and
behold, I guess I went from a hater to a … lover? Here's
the thing: HC Jonathan Gannon and James Conner both expect Benson
to see more work than last year. Kyler Murray believes Benson
is primed for a big year. OK, fine. That is what coaches and players
are supposed to say about a teammate. The fact of the matter is
that he was quite efficient after the first month of last season
when he actually saw the ball. He just did not see the ball a
lot because Conner was playing so well. However, that is not the
main reason why I have him ranked so highly.
Much like Jordan Mason above, Benson is a powerful runner operating
as the primary handcuff behind an aging running back. The thing
about Conner is that he has never played a full season and typically
misses at least three games. The Cardinals want to run the ball
as much as possible and Benson is the only back on the roster
after Conner who can handle a heavy workload. Yes, Benson's vision
and anticipation need to improve. With that said, he brings more
explosiveness to the table than Conner. Benson is worth drafting
based on his handcuff value alone, but the likelihood that he
will also give his fantasy managers at least 8-10 touches per
week this year is worth more than a 12th-round selection in fantasy
drafts.
QB J.J. McCarthy, MIN - The easiest argument
to make for McCarthy is that HC Kevin O'Connell has made career
backups Nick Mullens and Josh Dobbs look good at times and oversaw
an almost unthinkable season from Sam Darnold last year. Before
that, he had Kirk Cousins on a career-best track before the latter
suffered an Achilles tear midway through the 2023 season. Each
of O'Connell's three offenses in Minnesota has ranked no worse
than sixth in the league in passing yards or passing touchdowns.
While we should expect O'Connell to rely more heavily on the rushing
attack than any of his previous Vikings' teams to ease McCarthy's
transition into the NFL, I doubt Minnesota will dip much lower
than last year's 548 pass attempts. With the weapons McCarthy
has at his disposal, it would be shocking if he did not play well
almost immediately.
The thing that most casual fantasy football managers are missing
with McCarthy is his athletic ability. He can run. He rushed for
at least 50 yards five times in his college career. I would not
be surprised if he pushed for 400 yards on the ground as soon
as this season. That kind of rushing floor puts him in the same
class as Brock Purdy last year. Purdy finished as the overall
QB12 in 2024 despite missing two games and attempting just 455
passes in part because he was highly efficient and ran for 323
yards and five touchdowns. With a better supporting cast and similar
athleticism, it would not surprise me if McCarthy has a similar
year.
RB Braelon Allen, NYJ - I will not claim to
know what the Jets have in store regarding their backfield usage.
Is Breece Hall in a committee or is it all the talk about it just
a ruse? I am not sure I care. What I do know is that New York
has the personnel to play smash-mouth football. Last season, the
Eagles led the league with a whopping 621 rush attempts. Next
was Baltimore with 554 and Detroit with 534. I mention the Lions
in part because new Jets OC Tanner Engstrand was in Detroit pre-Dan
Campbell. It is also worth mentioning that Engstrand's most prominent
coaching influences have been Jim Harbaugh and Campbell. He will
want to run the ball as much as possible, and it seems likely
he will do it by committee. Even if Hall is in a committee, the
odds are strong that he will see at least 225 carries, which would
be a career high. Assuming New York runs as often as some of the
most run-heavy teams from 2024, it leaves about 300 carries for
Justin Fields and the rest of the offense to split.
Enter Allen, who reportedly looks like a new man in camp this
summer. The thought coming out of New York for months is that
Hall will play the Jahmyr Gibbs role in Engstrand's offense while
Allen will be utilized somewhat like David Montgomery. There are
obvious differences in the two situations (Gibbs is special and
Montgomery is annually underrated, Engstrand probably is not Ben
Johnson and Fields is not Jared Goff, etc.), but the point to
be made here is that even if Fields takes 100 carries for himself,
it leaves another 200 for Allen and/or Isaiah Davis. While the
latter is not going away anytime soon, it seems clear that the
new regime is set on trying to replicate the Detroit model with
its backfield. The Jets are highly unlikely to score a lot this
season, but there should be ample opportunity for multiple mouths
to be fed in the running game. Allen figures to be one of those
mouths.
RB Kyle Monangai, CHI - Were it not for the
fact that Monangai was the best early-down running back in an
up-and-coming offense led by new HC Ben Johnson, I might look
the other way. Monangai is not necessarily a special talent, but
he is the best pure running back on the roster at the moment.
That alone means something when we consider the likelihood that
Chicago will score a full touchdown per game more than it did
last year (18.2 point-per-game average). Two of the most likely
reasons for my confidence in saying that: the play calls will
be more creative and the offensive line play should be exponentially
better after the Bears overhauled their interior line during free
agency. Drew Dalman is a top-five center in the league, Joe Thuney
is probably still a top-five option at guard and Jonah Jackson
is certainly better than his predecessor at right guard (Nate
Davis).
Among the other reasons I am confident in Monangai: he does not
fumble, possesses excellent contact balance and is a tone-setter.
It was not long ago that Ben Johnson entered a season expected
to feature D'Andre Swift and instead gave a similar back (to Monangai)
262 carries during a 17-touchdown season. That was Jamaal Williams
in 2022. I am not predicting a similar season for Monangai, but
it is hard for me to wrap my mind around the possibility of Roschon
Johnson blocking the rookie from significant playing time after
failing to beat out Khalil Herbert or D'Onta Foreman as a rookie
and averaging 2.7 yards last season. Monangai is going to play
a role in this offense. The question is how long Ben Johnson is
willing to feature an undisciplined runner like Swift before Monangai
plays a huge role.
Doug Orth has served as an analyst for FF Today since 2006 and
joined the Fantasy Points team before the start of the 2024 season.
He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who has not experienced
a losing money season in any of his 25 years in this hobby. Please
check him out on "The Football Diehards" podcast - courtesy
of Full Time Fantasy - on Wednesday nights with co-host JJ Wenner.