The trade deadline in many leagues is still about a month away,
but fantasy managers should use this time to identify some of the
players who may not be valued the way they should be right now.
Last week, I discussed trade
targets at quarterback and running back. This week, I will
highlight five players (wide receivers and tight ends) who I believe
are not being valued correctly. After I discuss my stance on the
player and some of the reasons why I am taking that stance, I
will use the last paragraph to give readers an idea of who and/or
what they should expect in return.
This one may only be for managers in leagues who are very susceptible
to recency bias. The fantasy football regular season is only 14
weeks long in most leagues, which means many of us do not have
the luxury of waiting things out when a player is playing injured,
which is probably the case right now for Egbuka. It also isn't
helping the rookie's cause that Baker Mayfield has played two
of his worst games since joining the Bucs before the start of
the 2023 season.
I am not going to reveal anything revolutionary about Egbuka
here. Is it possible the league started figuring him or the offense
(under first-year OC Josh Grizzard) out? Sure, it is possible.
Is it likely? No.
Let's look at some basic data: Egbuka was a master of efficiency
in Weeks 1-5, hauling in 25 of 38 targets (66 percent). He averaged
a touchdown catch once every five receptions and 7.6 targets.
In the three outings since (including the game he was injured
in Week 6), the Ohio State product has nine scoreless catches
on 25 targets (36 percent). It seems highly unlikely that a player
who has scored the most points by any receiver against the Falcons
this season (23.6 in Week 1) and is one of only three wideouts
to score a touchdown versus the Texans (Week 2) over his first
two career NFL games lost 'it" just over a month later.
Bye weeks are a godsend for any number of players, especially
when they come right in the middle of the season. The Bucs needed
theirs with injuries piling up - especially at receiver - and
also because it gives Grizzard a chance to review what has worked
and what hasn't worked through eight weeks. Bye weeks also give
teams a chance to self-scout. As this discussion relates to Egbuka,
his hamstring should be a non-issue by the time Week 10 rolls
around. In the meantime, Grizzard will have had plenty of time
to add or tweak his passing game around Egbuka being the primary
receiver - which was not the plan to begin the season.
Even with his recent duds (from a fantasy perspective), Egbuka
is still the overall WR7. I think I would prefer him to a host
of receivers that were drafted in the first or second round this
summer, including Justin
Jefferson, Nico
Collins, Brian
Thomas Jr. and A.J.
Brown. Chances are that the name value of at least one of
those players will get the opposing manager to agree to a trade.
If I had the depth at running back to support it, I would jump
at the chance to acquire Egbuka in exchange for the likes of Breece
Hall or Ashton
Jeanty.
The next two recommendations are more for the "I'm willing
to be hurt again, but I also recognize the upside" crowd.
This season started well enough for Meyers, who easily met the
expectations of being a serviceable WR3 in the first two games
of the season. Then came Tre Tucker's three-touchdown game in
Week 3 and Geno Smith falling apart after that. The timing of
Meyer's demise coincides somewhat with Brock Bowers' Week 1 knee
injury (Bowers became a shell of himself after Week 2), but I
think the reason Meyers has fallen off over the last month has
more to do with perhaps falling out of favor with the new regime
and, somewhat by extension, Smith.
The primary reason Meyers belongs on this list is due to the
likelihood he will be traded before next Tuesday's deadline (Nov.
4). While the recent history of midseason trade acquisitions in
the NFL is not great, there are at least a couple of reasons why
Meyers could be an exception. Meyers is not merely a slot receiver,
but that is where he has typically done his best work. One team
(and one play-caller) makes a lot of sense for him and could use
his skill set: OC Josh McDaniels and the Patriots. Roughly Meyers'
first 1 1/2 seasons in Las Vegas and most of his time in New England
came while playing for McDaniels, who cannot seem to find much
use for Demario Douglas. Meyers' three 100-target seasons have
all happened in seasons that McDaniels coached him for at least
part of the season.
Obviously, I cannot recommend a player here based solely on where
he MIGHT be traded (and that assumes he is a lock to be dealt).
The thing with Meyers is that his game should travel well regardless
of where he lands. I presented the upside case. If the upside
case hits, we are probably looking at a top-25 receiver over the
remainder of the season.
Meyers currently hangs out in an area of fantasy scoring (WR48)
where he has no business being. His stock has fallen so far in
just over a month that it is difficult to pull off a 1-for-1 trade
with another player at his position. He might even be available
as a throw-in. Assuming you have some depth at tight end, a 1-for-1
with Kyle Pitts
or maybe even Harold
Fannin Jr. could be enough. At running back, maybe TreVeyon
Henderson or Chuba
Hubbard. (I would be leery about trading away Henderson, however,
as I believe he will make some moderate noise before the end of
the season.)
One of the players I have consistently been most wrong about
is Ridley. Most of the blame can be placed on the bizarre path
his career took since 2020, including a year in which he essentially
removed himself from the season for mental health (2021) and a
gambling suspension the following season (2022). We then assumed
that Trevor Lawrence would be the best quarterback he had ever
played with and that Jacksonville would know to use him as a Z
receiver. Nope. The 2024 campaign brought the promise of him finally
being the clear lead receiver in Tennessee. Oops. We had a Will Levis and Mason Rudolph problem last year. In 2025, Cam Ward would
surely change his prospects, right? Wrong again.
So why is he here? Am I ready to be hurt yet again? Not exactly.
If you thought Meyers' stock was low right now, try finding out
what the trade value is for a soon-to-be 31-year-old receiver
who was getting out-produced by a fourth-round rookie in September
- the same fourth-round rookie (Elic Ayomanor) who now appears
to be taking a backseat to another player drafted in the same
round this spring (Chimere Dike). Like Meyers, Ridley has a decent
chance to be traded in the next week. Unlike Meyers, there is
no natural landing spot in which he could learn (or re-learn)
an offense. With that said, Ridley proved in Week 5 (5-131-0)
that he still has something left in the tank. He could easily
be the field-stretcher Buffalo is seeking, for example. The Giants
make some sense, as do the Steelers.
As was the case with Meyers, the price to acquire Ridley at this
point is much lower than anyone could have expected when drafting
him in the fourth or fifth round two months ago. There is a reason
players are selected in that area, and it isn't because managers
were hoping the lead receiver on what was expected to be a bad
team would dominate in negative game script week after week. Ridley
is not much different stylistically from Jaylen Waddle, who appears
to be thriving once again as the Dolphins' unquestioned alpha.
As far as his price tag, I could easily see Ridley being traded
for Sterling Shepard or Alec Pierce. Nick Chubb or an injured
Isiah Pacheco could also get it done in a 1-for-1 as well.
Personal story: I selected Ferguson in five redraft leagues and
traded for him in a dynasty league this summer. One of my biggest
instant regrets once drafting season was ending was that I did
not have more exposure to him, mostly because I kept playing the
cat-and-mouse game with him in the double-digit rounds. Regardless,
I would consider something approaching 35 percent exposure in
my high-stakes leagues a good thing for me. At any rate, I was
able to draft Trey
McBride or land someone like Harold
Fannin Jr. or Oronde
Gadsden II off waivers in most of the leagues in which I had
him, so I have attempted to trade him over the last few weeks.
Not a single bite. Imagine that. The overall TE1 did not have
a market. I had to start nearly every trade discussion that involved
him. Even managers starting Evan Engram and/or Mason Taylor regularly
were not interested. I had one manager try to convince me that
a Ferguson-for-Kareem Hunt trade was a good idea.
Folks, I will not try to sell you on the idea that Ferguson has
been dominant this year. He hasn't. He is averaging 6.5 yards
per catch. He has been lucky with six touchdowns in four games.
Some of his production was elevated due to the absence of CeeDee Lamb. All of this is mostly indisputable. With that said, where
are you going to find a tight end on pace for 125 targets in a
good offense? (Mind you, that pace was at 140 targets before last
week's disaster against a stingy Denver defense.) This is when
it occurred to me that Ferguson is actually a good buy, especially
now with the narrative being floated out there that Lamb's return
essentially crushes Ferguson's value.
I had no intention of writing about Ferguson until a couple of
hours before I finished writing this article. If my leagues with
Ferguson are representative of the ones any of you play in, it
appears the narrative of Lamb's return is powerful enough to erase
what Ferguson did through seven weeks. My guess is that Ferguson
- especially after he was shut out in Week 8 - could be had for
most WR3s. It would not surprise me if Rachaad White, Chase Brown
or Jordan Mason were enough to get a deal done either. At the
very least, do a price check in your league. While it is possible
- if not likely - that his touchdowns dry up, he is still the
preferred check-down option who plays for a quarterback that loves
to find his tight end.
If you thought my Ferguson experience was interesting, get ready
to hear more of the same about Fannin. Across all of my redraft
leagues, I have seven shares of Fannin. While I will not say I
was ever thrilled about the idea of offering him to another manager,
I did it because I appear to have hit the jackpot in just about
every league at tight end. In virtually every league, I have McBride,
Ferguson, Kraft, Gadsden or Fannin. In one league, I have four
of the five. Needless to say, I was motivated to trim my tight
end room down to at least three on that team before the league's
trade deadline (Oct. 30). No luck.
The case for Fannin is relatively simple. Dillon Gabriel has
started four games for the Browns. Even if we include the nasty
weather game against the Dolphins in Week 7, Gabriel has attempted
138 passes. He has targeted the tight end position 49 times (35.5
percent). While I am well aware that Fannin would not get every
tight end target in Cleveland if David Njoku were traded, he would
get the bulk of them. It does not take a fantasy expert to tell
you that even a 50 percent catch rate (tight ends are usually
over 70) for a tight end averaging 10 targets in a bad offense
is likely a TE1 in most fantasy leagues. Fannin's current catch
rate is 74.5. He is the overall TE7 in fantasy now while sharing
time with Njoku. Do we really expect things to get worse if/when
Njoku is no longer around?
Don't let year-to-date production be your only guide to determining
if a trade is good or not. Cleveland already seems to be shifting
away from Njoku and more toward Fannin as it is. If you are stuck
with a player in the Evan Engram/Mason Taylor/T.J. Hockenson tier,
go get someone like Fannin. He could legitimately draw 10 targets
per game if he did not have to compete with Njoku anymore. I feel
better about him than I do Hunter Henry, Zach Ertz and Dalton Kincaid the rest of the way. I don't think it is unrealistic that
he outperforms Travis Kelce, especially if Njoku is shipped out.
I think it is entirely possible to acquire Fannin on the cheap,
as odd as that is for me to say. The latest offer I made that
included Fannin was so I could get some Week 9 bye coverage at
running back in Kareem
Hunt. Denied. I could easily see Woody
Marks, Tyjae
Spears or Josh
Downs being enough for Fannin's manager to part with him.
Doug Orth has served as an analyst for FF Today since 2006 and joined the Fantasy Points team before the start of the 2024 season. He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who has not experienced a losing money season in any of his 25 years in this hobby.