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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Red Zone Report - Receivers
Preseason Matchup Analysis
7/5/16

Touchdowns are the lifeblood of fantasy football. In most cases, they are highly volatile. There are many reasons for this, but it doesn’t change the fact that during a given NFL game, the unplanned happens with regularity. For example, owners of Green Bay Packers running backs over the years have been watching John Kuhn vulture scores for what seems like a decade. Or how about the "meaningless" score in a 38-7 game that helps give your opponent's quarterback the last few fantasy points he/she needs to ruin your week?

For the most part, one of the jobs of a successful fantasy football owner is to be able to discern what exactly can be considered lucky and what is repeatable. In other words, it is beneficial to place your bet on the event that is most likely to happen while also reducing the number of resources (i.e. players in your fantasy lineup) that essentially need to count on a breakdown or mistake from the defense to get their points. So how exactly do we measure this?

To my knowledge, there is no way to accurately predict how often a particular defensive back is going to make a mistake in his coverage in any given game (predictive) , just how often they get beat (reactive). After all, we see receivers beat perfect coverage quite often in today's NFL, so such analysis would be of limited use anyway. We can't even trust team's evaluations from year to year. If you require a recent example, look no further than Oakland Raiders CB David Amerson, who was a liability for the Washington Redskins for most of his short career there. Almost immediately upon arriving in Oakland, he was one of the league's stingiest corners. Another Cover 3 miracle? Only time will tell.

One of the older fantasy football adages is more opportunities tend to lead to more success. Short of being able to predict how often a particular defender will fail to do his job, we can get a better sense of what offensive players will thrive based on the number of opportunities they get when scoring a touchdown is the most likely. Thanks to the explosion of advanced analytics over the years, finding more specific information is much easier than it used to be. This year, I'll finally be able to take the next step in the evolution of this article, which is to present more than what teams and individuals do inside the 20.

Red-zone analysis helps owners get a sense of what teams are doing in prime scoring territory, but looking at what teams do solely inside the 20 doesn't provide the total picture. And it makes sense why: just like in basketball where the field-goal percentage goes down as the shot get progressively longer, the percentage of teams scoring a touchdown on any given play go down the further away a team is from the goal line. In keeping up with the basketball metaphor, fantasy owners aren't concerned with the first few passes that led to the shot; we want successful conversions. The point to be made here is a lot more touchdowns are scored inside the 5 and inside the 10 than between the 11 and 20.

Below is a key for the abbreviations you will see below:

Tgt – Target
Rec – Reception
TD – Receiving touchdown

Note: The cutoff for players to qualify for this list was four red-zone targets. Because of the variance in targets (extreme in some cases) across the various websites I used, there is a chance a player with four or more red-zone targets according to one site may not have made this list. Due to these differences, I could not justify using the same kind "Tm %"-like metrics I used in the runners part of this piece.

**** Sorted by Targets Inside the 20 Quarterbacks | Runners | Receivers
 Red Zone Report - Receivers
   Inside 20  Inside 10
Player Pos Tm Tgt Rec TD Tgt Rec TD
Eric Decker WR NYJ 28 12 10 17 10 8
Antonio Brown WR PIT 22 16 8 12 10 6
Gary Barnidge TE CLE 22 9 8 15 5 5
Allen Robinson WR JAC 21 14 12 17 10 10
Jarvis Landry WR MIA 21 11 3 15 6 3
Julio Jones WR ATL 21 12 5 12 6 4
Brandon Marshall WR NYJ 21 11 9 12 6 4
Randall Cobb WR GB 20 10 5 14 7 5
DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU 20 12 6 6 4 4
Jordan Reed TE WAS 20 16 10 11 9 7
Demaryius Thomas WR DEN 19 11 3 8 3 2
Rob Gronkowski TE NE 19 11 7 11 6 5
Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI 18 13 8 12 7 7
Golden Tate WR DET 18 11 6 12 10 6
Odell Beckham Jr. WR NYG 18 11 6 6 3 3
Anquan Boldin WR SF 18 10 3 6 1 1
Greg Olsen TE CAR 18 10 4 9 4 2
A.J. Green WR CIN 17 9 7 10 5 5
Cole Beasley WR DAL 17 10 5 8 6 4
John Brown WR ARI 16 10 6 5 4 3
Ben Watson TE NO 16 10 5 5 4 3
Calvin Johnson WR DET 15 11 7 8 6 5
Julian Edelman WR NE 15 10 5 7 4 3
Alshon Jeffery WR CHI 15 5 2 4 1 1
Tyler Eifert TE CIN 15 12 11 9 8 8
Danny Woodhead RB SD 15 10 5 8 5 4
Pierre Garcon WR WAS 14 8 5 10 4 4
Martavis Bryant WR PIT 14 5 3 10 1 1
Jordan Matthews WR PHI 14 9 5 8 7 5
Delanie Walker TE TEN 14 12 4 8 7 4
Devonta Freeman RB ATL 14 9 3 4 3 1
James Jones WR GB 13 4 3 8 2 2
Michael Crabtree WR OAK 13 3 2 8 2 2
Mike Evans WR TB 13 2 2 7 2 2
Dez Bryant WR DAL 13 4 3 7 1 1
T.Y. Hilton WR IND 13 7 3 5 3 2
Travis Benjamin WR CLE 13 4 1 4 1 1
Markus Wheaton WR PIT 13 7 3 4 4 3
Jeremy Maclin WR KC 13 10 6 4 2 2
Doug Baldwin WR SEA 13 9 6 3 2 2
Richard Rodgers TE GB 13 10 7 9 6 6
Jason Witten TE DAL 13 8 3 7 3 2
Jordan Cameron TE MIA 13 6 3 3 1 1
Theo Riddick RB DET 13 10 2 5 4 2
Allen Hurns WR JAC 12 8 5 8 4 3
Vincent Jackson WR TB 12 5 3 7 1 1
Donte Moncrief WR IND 12 8 5 5 3 3
Nate Washington WR HOU 12 5 2 4 2 1
Heath Miller TE PIT 12 8 2 8 4 2
Antonio Gates TE SD 12 6 5 4 1 1
Rueben Randle WR NYG 11 5 3 9 4 2
Jamison Crowder WR WAS 11 5 2 8 3 1
Andre Johnson WR IND 11 5 4 7 3 2
Davante Adams WR GB 11 5 1 5 3 1
Marvin Jones WR CIN 11 7 2 4 3 1
Coby Fleener TE IND 11 6 2 4 2 2
Eddie Royal WR CHI 10 6 1 9 5 1
Terrance Williams WR DAL 10 3 1 6 0 0
Brian Hartline WR CLE 10 7 2 5 4 2
Michael Floyd WR ARI 10 4 2 4 2 2
Devin Funchess WR CAR 10 5 5 4 1 1
Danny Amendola WR NE 10 8 3 4 3 2
Jermaine Kearse WR SEA 10 6 3 4 1 1
Jerricho Cotchery WR CAR 10 6 2 4 3 1
Steve Johnson WR SD 10 7 3 2 2 2
Travis Kelce TE KC 10 5 4 5 2 2
Owen Daniels TE DEN 10 4 3 4 2 2
Matt Forte RB CHI 10 6 2 7 3 2
Shane Vereen RB NYG 10 8 4 5 4 4
Willie Snead WR NO 9 6 2 4 2 1
Leonard Hankerson WR ATL 9 6 3 4 3 3
Ted Ginn Jr. WR CAR 9 7 6 3 3 3
Steve Smith WR BAL 9 2 1 3 1 0
Seth Roberts WR OAK 9 5 5 3 1 1
Kyle Rudolph TE MIN 9 4 3 7 3 3
Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE TB 9 3 2 7 3 2
Julius Thomas TE JAC 9 5 3 6 3 3
Scott Chandler TE NE 9 6 4 6 4 3
Will Tye TE NYG 9 5 3 5 4 3
Zach Ertz TE PHI 9 3 1 4 2 1
Kyle Juszczyk RB BAL 9 7 4 7 5 4
Duke Johnson RB CLE 9 6 1 3 1 0
Charcandrick West RB KC 9 2 0 2 0 0
Kamar Aiken WR BAL 8 6 4 5 3 2
Dorial Green-Beckham WR TEN 8 4 3 4 2 2
Dwayne Harris WR NYG 8 5 2 3 2 2
Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN 8 4 3 3 1 1
Brandin Cooks WR NO 8 4 2 3 2 1
Andrew Hawkins WR CLE 8 3 0 2 0 0
Bryan Walters WR JAC 8 4 0 2 1 0
Amari Cooper WR OAK 8 3 2
Martellus Bennett TE CHI 8 5 2 5 2 2
Josh Hill TE NO 8 4 2 5 3 2
Eric Ebron TE DET 8 6 5 4 3 3
Crockett Gillmore TE BAL 8 5 3 4 3 3
Jimmy Graham TE SEA 8 3 1 4 2 1
Larry Donnell TE NYG 8 4 2 4 2 1
Jared Cook TE STL 8 3 0 2 1 0
David Johnson RB ARI 8 3 2 4 1 1
Chris Thompson RB WAS 8 8 2 2 2 1
Javorius Allen RB BAL 8 6 1 1 0 0
James Starks RB GB 8 6 2 1 1 1
Roddy White WR ATL 7 3 1 5 2 1
Marques Colston WR NO 7 5 3 4 2 2
Harry Douglas WR TEN 7 4 2 4 2 1
Tavon Austin WR STL 7 4 4 3 1 1
Robert Woods WR BUF 7 4 2 3 2 1
Brandon LaFell WR NE 7 3 0 2 0 0
Mohamed Sanu WR CIN 7 4 0 2 0 0
Vance McDonald TE SF 7 4 3 3 2 2
Ladarius Green TE SD 7 5 3
Mike Tolbert RB CAR 7 6 3 3 3 2
Denard Robinson RB JAC 7 4 0 3 2 0
De'Anthony Thomas RB KC 7 6 1 2 2 0
Bilal Powell RB NYJ 7 4 1
Jaron Brown WR ARI 6 3 1 5 3 1
Rashad Greene WR JAC 6 4 2 5 3 2
DeVante Parker WR MIA 6 1 1 4 0 0
Dontrelle Inman WR SD 6 4 3 4 3 3
Jeremy Ross WR BAL 6 3 0 4 1 0
Mike Wallace WR MIN 6 3 2 3 2 2
Justin Hardy WR ATL 6 4 0 3 2 0
Andre Caldwell WR DEN 6 4 2 3 3 2
Jordan Norwood WR DEN 6 5 0 3 3 0
Cecil Shorts WR HOU 6 5 2 2 2 2
Torrey Smith WR SF 6 1 1 1 0 0
Myles White WR NYG 6 1 0 1 0 0
Keenan Allen WR SD 6 5 2 1 1 0
Nelson Agholor WR PHI 6 2 0 1 0 0
Vernon Davis TE 2TM 6 4 0 3 2 0
Jermaine Gresham TE ARI 6 2 1 3 1 0
Ed Dickson TE CAR 6 4 2 3 2 2
Zach Miller TE CHI 6 4 3 3 3 3
Gavin Escobar TE DAL 6 2 1 3 1 1
Marcedes Lewis TE JAC 6 0 0 3 0 0
Clive Walford TE OAK 6 2 2 2 2 2
James White RB NE 6 5 2 4 4 2
Jeremy Langford RB CHI 6 3 0 4 2 0
Jonathan Grimes RB HOU 6 5 1 3 2 0
Fred Jackson RB SEA 6 5 2 2 2 2
Sammy Watkins WR BUF 5 3 1 4 2 1
Kendall Wright WR TEN 5 3 2 4 2 1
Donteea Dye WR TB 5 2 1 4 2 1
Josh Huff WR PHI 5 2 1 3 1 1
Lance Moore WR DET 5 4 2 2 1 1
Kenny Stills WR MIA 5 1 1 2 1 1
Chris Hogan WR BUF 5 4 1 2 1 1
Philly Brown WR CAR 5 3 1 2 2 1
Marqise Lee WR JAC 5 3 1 2 1 1
Taylor Gabriel WR CLE 5 2 0 2 0 0
Marc Mariani WR CHI 5 3 0 1 0 0
Marquess Wilson WR CHI 5 1 0 1 0 0
Stefon Diggs WR MIN 5 3 1 1 0 0
Griff Whalen WR IND 5 4 1
Garrett Celek TE SF 5 4 3 3 2 2
Cameron Brate TE TB 5 3 1 3 1 1
Brent Celek TE PHI 5 5 3 2 2 2
Jacob Tamme TE ATL 5 2 1 2 1 1
Michael Hoomanawanui TE NO 5 4 3 1 1 1
Mychal Rivera TE OAK 5 2 1 1 0 0
DeAngelo Williams RB PIT 5 2 0 3 1 0
Shaun Draughn RB 2TM 5 3 0 3 2 0
Doug Martin RB TB 5 3 1 3 2 1
Justin Forsett RB BAL 5 4 0 2 2 0
Chris Ivory RB NYJ 5 5 1 2 2 1
Dion Lewis RB NE 5 3 2 2 1 1
Mark Ingram RB NO 5 4 0 1 0 0
Ameer Abdullah RB DET 5 4 1 1 1 0
Jeff Janis WR GB 4 0 0 3 0 0
Brice Butler WR DAL 4 0 0 3 0 0
Josh Bellamy WR CHI 4 1 0 3 0 0
Adam Humphries WR TB 4 1 1 3 1 1
Ty Montgomery WR GB 4 4 1 3 3 1
Dion Sims TE MIA 4 3 1 4 3 1
Maxx Williams TE BAL 4 2 0 3 1 0
Tim Wright TE DET 4 2 2 3 2 2
Anthony Fasano TE TEN 4 3 2 2 1 1
Jamaal Charles RB KC 4 4 1 4 4 1
Lamar Miller RB MIA 4 2 1 3 1 0
Marcel Reece RB OAK 4 4 3 3 3 2
Frank Gore RB IND 4 2 1 3 2 1
Bruce Miller RB SF 4 2 0 3 1 0

Much like running backs I just finished discussing, there are several examples of a player receiving a touch or a target inside the red zone, only to watch his usage drop significantly inside the 5 and 10. Since I want the numbers to speak for themselves in most cases, I'll focus mostly on the outliers in an attempt to suggest which players may find themselves having a much different 2016 season:

One reason why Jacksonville passed so much in scoring territory was because it didn’t feel it had the "hammer" it needed. Another reason might have been the remarkable efficiency Allen Robinson (10-for-10 on 17 targets) and Allen Hurns (3-for-4 on eight) displayed inside the 10; only one catch the duo made did not go for a score. The pair was almost as good inside the 20 as well, combining to score 17 times on 25 receptions and 35 targets. Julius Thomas was pretty much money in the bank too, scoring on all three of his catches inside the 10. The addition of Chris Ivory is going to hurt somebody from this trio, but there is an automatic assumption the player will be Hurns because can't possibly repeat what he did last season - either because he is an undrafted free agent that got "lucky" or the notion the Jags can't possibly support four fantasy-relevant backs/receivers/tight ends. The more likely scenario is one that includes the team creating more red-zone chances simply because the defense should be much-improved. After all, more weapons should lead to more efficiency, right? Let's also not forget OC Greg Olson's aforementioned history: he loves to call pass plays in the red zone (nearly 60 percent of his red-zone calls over his career have been pass plays).

If your eyes lit up every time the Bengals made it into the red zone last season, chances are you were a Tyler Eifert owner. Take a good look at his totals inside the 20 (11 touchdowns, 12 catches, 15 targets) and inside the 10 (8-8-9) because you may not see that kind of efficiency in both areas again from another player anytime soon. Yes, Allen Robinson was close, but that's not the point: perfection is hard to achieve, especially the closer a team gets to the stripe. The law of averages tends to balance out over time, either because defenses cut off the path of least resistance or offenses adjust and find another go-to guy. In Cincinnati's case, A.J. Green also enjoyed 100 percent efficiency inside the 10 and has consistently finished in the low-20s in term of red-zone targets throughout his career. It'd be silly to predict a career season for someone as accomplished as Green - especially since we have no idea about what kind of play-caller new OC Ken Zampese is - but the chips are definitely falling into place for that to happen. By now, owners are fully aware that Brandon LaFell and rookie Tyler Boyd are being asked to replace Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu, and Eifert could miss time early in the regular season. I'm not sure that means an Eric Decker-like 28 red-zone looks and 17 targets inside the 10, but I'd willing to bet on a bump of at least five targets in each area from last year's modest numbers. Based solely on Green's conversion rates last year, he'd be in line for at least 11 red-zone scores (and we all know he is good for a few big-play TDs every year as well) with the increased attention.

I'm eager to see how Detroit manufactures its offense this season. Very few know the Lions scored a touchdown on 69.4 percent of their red-zone possessions, good for the seventh-highest mark over the past 13 seasons for teams that reached the red zone at least three times per game, and crossed the stripe on 27.2 percent of their red-zone plays - the fifth-highest total over that same timeframe. Furthermore, 34 of their 40 touchdowns came inside the 20, which means they had next-to-no ability to create big scoring plays. If all of those numbers sound unsustainable, it is because they are. We've already discussed Matthew Stafford's stunning accuracy in tight quarters a year ago, which is also unlikely to be duplicated anytime soon in the Motor City. Further consider a good chunk of that efficiency came as a result of Calvin Johnson's brilliance, which will no longer be a rock upon which can rely on going forward. What does it all mean? Golden Tate (6-11-18; 6-10-12) needs to perform at least to the level he did in 2015 after showing few red-zone chops for most of the early part of his career, and Eric Ebron likely needs to display the same level of efficiency Megatron did last year. Even then, the running game has to get on track for any of it to matter.

Mike Evans accumulated 145 targets to Vincent Jackson's 62 a season ago. Both finished with three touchdowns, but that isn't even close to the most surprising stat in my mind. Evans caught only two of his 13 red-zone targets, which represents a level of incompetence that will be hard to repeat. Although he led the league in drops last year, don't be so quick to pin the blame on him, however. Vincent Jackson was only marginally better than Evans. In fact, there wasn't really a Buc involved in the passing game that was particularly efficient in the red zone, meaning Jameis Winston needs to be better. One only needs to refer to the running game chart earlier to see Tampa Bay (Winston and Doug Martin in particular) saved itself by performing well above average on the ground. It's obviously not a surprise to see a rookie quarterback struggle throwing the ball on an offense that cycled through so many receivers and was the worst team in the league a season earlier, but it does shed a clear light on the fact Winston has much work to do. Based on offseason reports out of Tampa, it appears he's on the right track. More importantly from the receivers' point of view, both Jackson and Evans in particular stand to be considerably more productive in fantasy in 2016.

Odell Beckham - along with Antonio Brown - are probably considered to be among the best big-play receivers in the game today, so it isn't terribly surprising to see them with low reception and target totals inside the 10 - relatively speaking - when compared to their overall catch totals. Both wideouts are a shade below 6-0 as well, so it is not as if this observation should come as a shock, although OBJ's six targets inside the 10 do seem low. The aforementioned size restriction, however, does not apply to the 6-1, 205-pound DeAndre Hopkins, who plays the ball in the air about as well as any receiver in the game today. His red-zone targets are in line with what one might expect from an elite receiver. (For what it is worth, there is a wide degree of variance on how many targets inside the 20 he actually had; I have seen the number range from 20 - which is the one listed above - to a league-high 29. At any rate, 20-plus targets is an elite number, so I’m less concerned about the discrepancy here than I would be in other cases.) His involvement dropped off considerably inside the 10, though as Hopkins was targeted a mere six times, which is a lower number than Rueben Randle, Jamison Crowder, Eddie Royal and Andre Johnson - among many others - posted last season. Hopkins turned all four of his opportunities in that area into touchdowns, so efficiency wasn't a problem. He was only targeted four times inside the 10 in 2014, which leads me to believe he is being limited by some combination of the following three factors: 1) the parade of quarterbacks to take snaps in Houston over the last two seasons has eliminated any chance of Hopkins getting a more significant piece of the pie near the goal line, 2) HC Bill O'Brien is a stout believer in the running game in such situations or 3) defenses are putting a premium on stopping Hopkins inside the 10. In short, just when you thought Hopkins might have hit his ceiling with 111 catches, 1,521 yards and 11 scores last year, I'm telling you there is some more room for growth with new QB Brock Osweiler under center.

As stunning as Hopkins' lack of involvement inside the 10 was, it pales in comparison to our next subject, Amari Cooper, who was shut out in the same area despite ending his rookie season with a stellar 72-1,070-6 line. And by "shut out", I don't mean he was held out of the end zone, I mean he wasn't even targeted inside the 10! The fact Derek Carr only had 15 attempts in this area certainly didn't help matters, but Michael Crabtree (eight targets, two scores) made out all right in spite of the lack of volume. If we choose to believe the Raiders didn't intentionally freeze out their rookie in 2015, then his present and future owners should be excited about what should be in store for this season. Cooper is a big-play threat for sure (four of his scores came from at least 26 yards away), but he is so much more than that. Despite not drawing a single target inside the 10, he was knocking on the door of being a low-end fantasy WR1 before a foot injury slowed him down considerably the last quarter of the season. Even if we do nothing more than bump up his 2015 catch and yardage totals 15 percent - which I think is a bit conservative considering the talent and the fact he probably would have hit 80 receptions as a rookie had he stayed healthy - we are left with 83 catches and 1,231 yards. Let's further assume he keeps his same six touchdowns outside the 10 and turns a couple of those elusive targets inside the 10 into touchdowns. We are left with 254.1 points in PPR leagues - a total that would have made him WR13 a season ago, right behind Calvin Johnson. Owners shouldn't have a problem with him as their top option at receiver, but they should be absolutely thrilled to land him as their second wideout.

As 105-catch, 1,304-plus yard seasons go, Demaryius Thomas' 2015 campaign was a disappointment. Perhaps we should have seen it coming: there was no way Denver was going to throw nearly as often as it did under former OC Adam Gase, but the reduced volume was supposed to be mitigated by the loss of TE Julius Thomas to Jacksonville. While it was also reasonable to expect a moderate decline from QB Peyton Manning, most of us could not prepare for the degree to which it happened. Manning's drop-off was far from the only negative byproduct resulting from the change to HC Gary Kubiak's offense. Thomas admitted last month he was distracted in 2015, and he attributes the fact he was tied for third in the league in drops to the issues he was dealing with at the time. His owners can cite the following numbers as to the main reason he fell so short of preseason expectations last year: three TDs on 11 catches on 19 red-zone targets and two scores on three receptions and 11 targets inside the 10. Both sets of numbers fall woefully short of the 6-18-39 and 4-6-18, respectively, from the previous year. With Mark Sanchez and Trevor Siemian likely battling it out in camp for the right to start under center for at least the first 8-12 weeks of the season, don't expect a return to anything approaching his lofty 2014 standards. His overall efficiency figures to be better just because we are talking about an elite talent with two straight 100-catch and four consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, but asking him to return to his days of catching more than 10 touchdowns given the current state of affairs in Denver is probably asking too much.

When projecting stats and/or potential future impact, it's rarely ever a good idea to essentially carry over the numbers from the departing player and use them as a baseline for the newcomer. In this next case, I feel it is justified because I believe it is important to establish floors in fantasy, and I don't think it is stretch to suggest that incoming athletic freak Ladarius Green is a substantial upgrade over a late-career Heath Miller. Certainly, we must understand there are intangibles to consider, such as the trust one builds from playing with the same quarterback for 11 straight years like Miller did with Ben Roethlisberger. Miller - even in his prime - was a short to intermediate target, whereas Green is a field-stretcher. What they do share is size. Despite clearly being in decline in 2015, Miller, who tallied 60 catches in his final year, was still targeted 12 times inside the red zone and eight times inside the 10 on a team that had the game's most dynamic receiver and a very efficient running attack (as detailed in the running section). The high reception total and Miller's red-zone involvement means we should be able to set a pretty high floor for Green, who also figures to double as the team's best deep threat after Antonio Brown. If we can figure on the ex-Charger replicating Miller's catch total and assume Green can maintain his career 14.1 YPC while scoring three times inside AND outside the 20, his floor should be 60-847-6. Those marks would leave him with 180.7 points in PPR, which would have been good for ninth a season. When one considers that sixth-place Tyler Eifert scored only 11 more points, Green can make a case to finish as a top-five tight end if he can stay healthy.

Next | Quarterbacks | Runners



Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.