Fantasy Football Today - fantasy football rankings, cheatsheets, and information
A Fantasy Football Community!




Create An Account  |  Advertise  |  Contact      





Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Red Zone Report - Runners
Preseason Matchup Analysis
7/5/16

A d v e r t i s e m e n t

Touchdowns are the lifeblood of fantasy football. In most cases, they are highly volatile. There are many reasons for this, but it doesn’t change the fact that during a given NFL game, the unplanned happens with regularity. For example, owners of Green Bay Packers running backs over the years have been watching John Kuhn vulture scores for what seems like a decade. Or how about the "meaningless" score in a 38-7 game that helps give your opponent's quarterback the last few fantasy points he/she needs to ruin your week?

For the most part, one of the jobs of a successful fantasy football owner is to be able to discern what exactly can be considered lucky and what is repeatable. In other words, it is beneficial to place your bet on the event that is most likely to happen while also reducing the number of resources (i.e. players in your fantasy lineup) that essentially need to count on a breakdown or mistake from the defense to get their points. So how exactly do we measure this?

To my knowledge, there is no way to accurately predict how often a particular defensive back is going to make a mistake in his coverage in any given game (predictive) , just how often they get beat (reactive). After all, we see receivers beat perfect coverage quite often in today's NFL, so such analysis would be of limited use anyway. We can't even trust team's evaluations from year to year. If you require a recent example, look no further than Oakland Raiders CB David Amerson, who was a liability for the Washington Redskins for most of his short career there. Almost immediately upon arriving in Oakland, he was one of the league's stingiest corners.

One of the older fantasy football adages is more opportunities tend to lead to more success. Short of being able to predict how often a particular defender will fail to do his job, we can get a better sense of what offensive players will thrive based on the number of opportunities they get. Thanks to the explosion of advanced analytics over the years, finding more specific information is much easier than it used to be. This year, I'll finally be able to take the next step in the evolution of this article, which is to present more than what teams and individuals do inside the 20.

Red-zone analysis helps owners get a sense of what teams are doing in prime scoring territory, but looking at what teams do solely inside the 20 doesn't provide the total picture. And it makes sense why: just like in basketball where the field-goal percentage goes down as the shot get progressively longer, the percentage of teams scoring a touchdown on any given play go down the further away a team is from the goal line. In keeping up with the basketball metaphor, fantasy owners aren't concerned with the first few passes that led to the shot; we want successful conversions. The point to be made here is a lot more touchdowns are scored inside the 5 and inside the 10 than between the 11 and 20.

Below is a key for the abbreviations you will see below:

TD – Rushing Touchdown
Tm % – Percent of team's carries inside specified area
TD Conv % – Rush attempts/total number of rushes inside specified area

**** Sorted by Rush Attempts Inside the 20 Quarterbacks | Runners | Receivers
 Red Zone Report - Runners
   Inside 20  Inside 10  Inside 5
Rk Player Pos Tm Rush TD Tm% Rush TD Tm% Rush TD Tm% TD Conv %
1 Devonta Freeman RB ATL 47 9 61.8% 25 8 62.5% 13 5 56.5% 38.5%
2 Jonathan Stewart RB CAR 46 6 43.8% 21 5 42.0% 12 5 37.5% 41.7%
3 DeAngelo Williams RB PIT 46 11 66.7% 30 11 66.7% 18 10 69.2% 55.6%
4 Adrian Peterson RB MIN 45 7 63.4% 26 7 66.7% 16 4 72.7% 25.0%
5 Doug Martin RB TB 41 6 63.1% 21 5 65.6% 11 5 55.0% 45.5%
6 Chris Ivory RB NYJ 38 6 62.3% 23 6 74.2% 18 5 81.8% 27.8%
7 Jeremy Hill RB CIN 36 10 43.4% 24 10 50.0% 16 9 69.6% 56.3%
8 Frank Gore RB IND 35 5 58.3% 15 4 62.5% 9 2 64.3% 22.2%
9 Latavius Murray RB OAK 33 5 70.2% 22 5 81.5% 9 4 81.8% 44.4%
10 LeGarrette Blount RB NE 32 5 49.2% 16 5 45.7% 11 5 50.0% 45.5%
11 Mark Ingram RB NO 31 6 43.7% 15 5 37.5% 10 4 35.7% 40.0%
12 Chris Johnson RB ARI 31 2 50.8% 16 2 47.1% 10 1 50.0% 10.0%
13 Giovani Bernard RB CIN 30 2 36.1% 14 0 29.2% 4 0 17.4% 0.0%
14 Matt Forte RB CHI 30 4 50.8% 21 4 58.3% 12 3 54.5% 25.0%
15 Cam Newton QB CAR 29 10 27.6% 19 9 38.0% 12 8 37.5% 66.7%
16 Isaiah Crowell RB CLE 29 4 58.0% 17 3 77.3% 7 2 77.8% 28.6%
17 DeMarco Murray RB PHI 28 5 50.0% 16 4 50.0% 11 3 57.9% 27.3%
18 Todd Gurley RB STL 28 9 68.3% 16 7 64.0% 9 6 64.3% 66.7%
19 Ronnie Hillman RB DEN 26 5 51.0% 16 3 59.3% 10 3 66.7% 30.0%
20 Darren McFadden RB DAL 26 3 72.2% 15 3 75.0% 6 2 60.0% 33.3%
21 Alfred Morris RB WAS 25 1 41.7% 10 1 32.3% 5 1 31.3% 20.0%
22 Matt Jones RB WAS 23 2 38.3% 13 2 41.9% 6 2 37.5% 33.3%
23 Charcandrick West RB KC 22 3 41.5% 14 3 38.9% 6 2 37.5% 33.3%
24 T.J. Yeldon RB JAC 22 1 43.1% 10 1 33.3% 6 1 31.6% 16.7%
25 David Johnson RB ARI 21 7 34.4% 12 5 35.3% 8 5 40.0% 62.5%
26 Tim Hightower RB NO 20 4 28.2% 11 4 27.5% 8 4 28.6% 50.0%
27 LeSean McCoy RB BUF 20 1 45.5% 9 1 31.0% 6 1 50.0% 16.7%
28 Rashad Jennings RB NYG 20 2 42.6% 10 2 41.7% 6 2 35.3% 33.3%
29 Alfred Blue RB HOU 20 1 38.5% 11 1 47.8% 4 0 44.4% 0.0%
30 Javorius Allen RB BAL 20 1 45.5% 12 1 52.2% 8 1 50.0% 12.5%
31 Eddie Lacy RB GB 20 3 46.5% 9 3 40.9% 8 3 61.5% 37.5%
32 Marshawn Lynch RB SEA 19 3 30.6% 13 3 40.6% 8 3 42.1% 37.5%
33 Tyrod Taylor QB BUF 19 3 43.2% 8 2 27.6% 1 0 8.3% 0.0%
34 Lamar Miller RB MIA 19 6 54.3% 12 5 60.0% 7 4 63.6% 57.1%
35 Danny Woodhead RB SD 19 3 50.0% 9 3 56.3% 6 2 66.7% 33.3%
36 C.J. Anderson RB DEN 18 2 35.3% 7 1 25.9% 4 1 26.7% 25.0%
37 Antonio Andrews RB TEN 18 3 45.0% 12 3 50.0% 6 2 37.5% 33.3%
38 Mike Tolbert RB CAR 17 1 16.2% 9 1 18.0% 7 1 21.9% 14.3%
39 Jeremy Langford RB CHI 17 6 28.8% 12 6 33.3% 7 5 31.8% 71.4%
40 Joique Bell RB DET 17 4 39.5% 10 4 47.6% 8 4 50.0% 50.0%
41 Carlos Hyde RB SF 17 3 50.0% 5 2 27.8% 4 1 36.4% 25.0%
42 Thomas Rawls RB SEA 16 3 25.8% 9 3 28.1% 6 3 31.6% 50.0%
43 Ryan Mathews RB PHI 16 5 28.6% 10 5 31.3% 6 4 31.6% 66.7%
44 Justin Forsett RB BAL 16 2 36.4% 4 1 17.4% 3 1 18.8% 33.3%
45 Le'Veon Bell RB PIT 14 3 20.3% 7 2 15.6% 3 2 11.5% 66.7%
46 Tevin Coleman RB ATL 14 1 18.4% 8 1 20.0% 5 1 21.7% 20.0%
47 Charles Sims RB TB 14 0 21.5% 3 0 9.4% 2 0 10.0% 0.0%
48 Denard Robinson RB JAC 13 1 25.5% 9 1 30.0% 5 1 26.3% 20.0%
49 Andy Dalton QB CIN 12 3 14.5% 7 3 14.6% 3 2 13.0% 66.7%
50 Spencer Ware RB KC 12 6 22.6% 10 6 27.8% 7 5 43.8% 71.4%
51 James Starks RB GB 12 0 27.9% 7 0 31.8% 1 0 7.7% 0.0%
52 Karlos Williams RB BUF 11 4 25.0% 5 3 17.2% 3 3 25.0% 100.0%
53 Ameer Abdullah RB DET 11 1 25.6% 2 0 9.5% 2 0 12.5% 0.0%
54 Melvin Gordon RB SD 11 0 28.9% 5 0 31.3% 2 0 22.2% 0.0%
55 Terron Ward RB ATL 10 1 13.2% 5 1 12.5% 3 0 13.0% 0.0%
56 Dion Lewis RB NE 10 2 15.4% 5 2 14.3% 1 0 4.5% 0.0%
57 Russell Wilson QB SEA 10 1 16.1% 4 1 12.5% 1 0 5.3% 0.0%
58 Darren Sproles RB PHI 10 3 17.9% 5 3 15.6% 2 2 10.5% 100.0%
59 Andre Williams RB NYG 10 1 21.3% 8 1 33.3% 7 1 41.2% 14.3%
60 Duke Johnson RB CLE 10 0 20.0% 2 0 9.1% 2 0 22.2% 0.0%
61 Jay Ajayi RB MIA 10 1 28.6% 6 0 30.0% 3 0 27.3% 0.0%
62 Khiry Robinson RB NO 9 4 12.7% 6 4 15.0% 5 3 17.9% 60.0%
63 Jerick McKinnon RB MIN 9 1 12.7% 5 1 12.8% 1 0 4.5% 0.0%
64 Teddy Bridgewater RB MIN 9 3 12.7% 4 2 10.3% 1 1 4.5% 100.0%
65 Jameis Winston QB TB 9 6 13.8% 8 6 25.0% 7 5 35.0% 71.4%
66 Ryan Fitzpatrick QB NYJ 9 2 14.8% 5 1 16.1% 1 0 4.5% 0.0%
67 Arian Foster RB HOU 9 1 17.3% 4 1 17.4% 1 1 11.1% 100.0%
68 Ka'Deem Carey RB CHI 8 2 13.6% 2 2 5.6% 2 2 9.1% 100.0%
69 Jamaal Charles RB KC 8 3 15.1% 6 3 16.7% 1 1 6.3% 100.0%
70 Blake Bortles QB JAC 8 2 15.7% 5 2 16.7% 3 2 15.8% 66.7%
71 Ahmad Bradshaw RB IND 8 0 13.3% 4 0 16.7% 2 0 14.3% 0.0%
72 Shane Vereen RB NYG 8 0 17.0% 2 0 8.3% 2 0 11.8% 0.0%
73 Joseph Randle RB DAL 8 3 22.2% 4 3 20.0% 4 3 40.0% 75.0%
74 Cameron Artis-Payne RB CAR 7 1 6.7% 1 0 2.0% 1 0 3.1% 0.0%
75 Brandon Bolden RB NE 7 0 10.8% 4 0 11.4% 3 0 13.6% 0.0%
76 Bryce Brown RB SEA 7 1 11.3% 3 1 9.4% 1 1 5.3% 100.0%
77 Bilal Powell RB NYJ 7 1 11.5%
78 Kirk Cousins QB WAS 7 5 11.7% 6 4 19.4% 3 3 18.8% 100.0%
79 Toby Gerhart RB JAC 7 0 13.7% 5 0 16.7% 5 0 26.3% 0.0%
80 Josh Robinson RB IND 7 0 11.7% 3 0 12.5% 2 0 14.3% 0.0%
81 Bishop Sankey RB TEN 7 1 17.5% 3 1 12.5% 3 1 18.8% 33.3%
82 Jonathan Grimes RB HOU 7 1 13.5% 3 1 13.0% 2 1 22.2% 50.0%
83 Aaron Rodgers QB GB 7 1 16.3% 4 0 18.2% 2 0 15.4% 0.0%
84 Matthew Stafford QB DET 7 1 16.3% 5 1 23.8% 3 1 18.8% 33.3%
85 Mike Davis RB SF 7 0 20.6% 5 0 27.8% 3 0 27.3% 0.0%
86 Fozzy Whittaker RB CAR 6 1 5.7%
87 Matt Asiata RB MIN 6 0 8.5% 2 0 5.1% 2 0 9.1% 0.0%
88 Alex Smith QB KC 6 2 11.3% 2 1 5.6% 1 1 6.3% 100.0%
89 Tom Brady QB NE 6 3 9.2% 4 3 11.4% 3 3 13.6% 100.0%
90 Jamize Olawale RB OAK 6 1 12.8% 1 0 3.7%
91 Andrew Luck QB IND 6 0 10.0% 1 0 4.2% 1 0 7.1% 0.0%
92 Chris Polk RB HOU 6 1 11.5% 3 1 13.0% 1 1 11.1% 100.0%
93 Johnny Manziel QB CLE 6 0 12.0% 2 0 9.1%
94 Donald Brown RB SD 6 1 15.8% 2 1 12.5% 1 1 11.1% 100.0%
95 C.J. Spiller RB NO 5 0 7.0% 3 0 7.5% 2 0 7.1% 0.0%
96 James White RB NE 5 2 7.7% 5 2 14.3% 3 1 13.6% 33.3%
97 Stepfan Taylor RB ARI 5 0 8.2% 2 0 5.9% 1 0 5.0% 0.0%
98 Anthony Dixon RB BUF 5 1 11.4% 4 1 13.8% 1 1 8.3% 100.0%
99 Brock Osweiler QB DEN 5 1 9.8% 3 1 11.1%
100 Orleans Darkwa RB NYG 5 1 10.6% 3 0 12.5% 2 0 11.8% 0.0%
101 Josh McCown QB CLE 5 1 10.0% 1 1 4.5%
102 Theo Riddick RB DET 5 0 11.6% 2 0 9.5% 1 0 6.3% 0.0%
103 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT 4 0 5.8% 4 0 8.9% 2 0 7.7% 0.0%
104 Matt Ryan QB ATL 4 0 5.3% 1 0 2.5% 1 0 4.3% 0.0%
105 Drew Brees QB NO 4 1 5.6% 3 1 7.5% 1 1 3.6% 100.0%
106 Jay Cutler QB CHI 4 1 6.8% 1 1 2.8% 1 1 4.5% 100.0%
107 EJ Manuel QB BUF 4 1 9.1% 2 1 6.9% 1 1 8.3% 100.0%
108 Mike Gillislee RB BUF 4 1 9.1% 1 0 3.4%
109 Derek Carr QB OAK 4 0 8.5% 1 0 3.7%
110 Tre Mason RB STL 4 1 9.8% 4 1 16.0% 2 1 14.3% 50.0%
111 Eli Manning QB NYG 4 0 8.5% 1 0 4.2%
112 Marcus Mariota QB TEN 4 0 10.0% 3 0 12.5% 2 0 12.5% 0.0%
113 David Cobb RB TEN 4 1 10.0% 2 1 8.3% 2 1 12.5% 50.0%
114 Joe Flacco QB BAL 4 3 9.1% 3 3 13.0% 3 3 18.8% 100.0%
115 John Kuhn RB GB 4 2 9.3% 2 2 9.1% 2 2 15.4% 100.0%
116 Mohamed Sanu WR CIN 3 1 3.6% 3 1 6.3%
117 Will Johnson RB PIT 3 1 4.3% 3 1 6.7% 3 1 11.5% 33.3%
118 Joey Iosefa RB NE 3 0 4.6%
119 Christine Michael RB SEA 3 0 4.8% 1 0 3.1% 1 0 5.3% 0.0%
120 Fred Jackson RB SEA 3 0 4.8%
121 Zac Stacy RB NYJ 3 1 4.9% 2 1 6.5% 2 1 9.1% 50.0%
122 Stevan Ridley RB NYJ 3 0 4.9% 1 0 3.2% 1 0 4.5% 0.0%
123 Chris Thompson RB WAS 3 0 5.0% 2 0 6.5% 2 0 12.5% 0.0%
124 Marcel Reece RB OAK 3 0 6.4% 2 0 7.4% 2 0 18.2% 0.0%
125 Nick Foles QB STL 3 1 7.3% 2 1 8.0% 1 1 7.1% 100.0%
126 Tavon Austin WR STL 3 3 7.3% 2 2 8.0% 2 2 14.3% 100.0%
127 Benny Cunningham RB STL 3 0 7.3% 1 0 4.0%
128 Matt Hasselbeck QB IND 3 0 5.0% 1 0 4.2%
129 Jalston Fowler RB TEN 3 1 7.5% 3 1 12.5% 2 1 12.5% 50.0%
130 Akeem Hunt RB HOU 3 0 5.8% 1 0 4.3%
131 T.J. Yates QB HOU 3 0 5.8%
132 Matt Moore QB MIA 3 0 8.6%
133 Jarryd Hayne RB SF 3 0 8.8% 2 0 11.1% 1 0 9.1% 0.0%
134 Zach Line RB MIN 2 2 2.8% 2 2 5.1% 2 2 9.1% 100.0%
135 Knile Davis RB KC 2 1 3.8% 1 1 2.8%
136 Steven Jackson RB NE 2 1 3.1% 1 1 2.9% 1 1 4.5% 100.0%
137 Andre Ellington RB ARI 2 1 3.3% 2 1 5.9% 1 1 5.0% 100.0%
138 Carson Palmer QB ARI 2 1 3.3% 2 1 5.9%
139 Tarvaris Jackson QB SEA 2 0 3.2%
140 Kenjon Barner RB PHI 2 0 3.6% 1 0 3.1%
141 Colt McCoy QB WAS 2 0 3.3%
142 Zach Mettenberger QB TEN 2 1 5.0% 1 1 4.2% 1 1 6.3% 100.0%
143 Dexter McCluster RB TEN 2 0 5.0%
144 B.J. Daniels QB HOU 2 0 3.8%
145 Lorenzo Taliaferro RB BAL 2 1 4.5% 2 1 8.7% 1 0 6.3% 0.0%
146 Ryan Tannehill QB MIA 2 1 5.7% 2 1 10.0% 1 1 9.1% 100.0%
147 Blaine Gabbert QB SF 2 0 5.9% 2 0 11.1%
148 Kendall Gaskins RB SF 2 0 5.9% 2 0 11.1% 1 0 9.1% 0.0%
149 Colin Kaepernick QB SF 2 1 5.9% 1 0 5.6% 1 0 9.1% 0.0%
150 AJ McCarron QB CIN 1 0 1.2%
151 Marvin Jones WR CIN 1 0 1.2%
152 Fitzgerald Toussaint RB PIT 1 0 1.4% 1 0 2.2%
153 Martavis Bryant WR PIT 1 1 1.4%
154 Patrick DiMarco RB ATL 1 0 1.3% 1 0 2.5% 1 0 4.3% 0.0%
155 Austin Johnson RB NO 1 1 1.4% 1 1 2.5% 1 1 3.6% 100.0%
156 Michael Hoomanawanui TE NO 1 0 1.4% 1 0 2.5% 1 0 3.6% 0.0%
157 Anthony Sherman RB KC 1 0 1.9% 1 0 2.8%
158 De'Anthony Thomas RB KC 1 1 1.9% 1 1 2.8%
159 Dontari Poe DL KC 1 1 1.9% 1 1 2.8% 1 1 6.3% 100.0%
160 Bobby Rainey RB TB 1 0 1.5%
161 Derrick Coleman RB SEA 1 0 1.6% 1 0 3.1% 1 0 5.3% 0.0%
162 Will Tukuafu RB SEA 1 1 1.6% 1 1 3.1% 1 1 5.3% 100.0%
163 Tommy Bohanon RB NYJ 1 0 1.6%
164 Bernard Pierce RB JAC 1 0 2.0% 1 0 3.3%
165 Chris Hogan WR BUF 1 0 2.3%
166 Juwan Thompson RB DEN 1 0 2.0% 1 0 3.7% 1 0 6.7% 0.0%
167 Andre Caldwell WR DEN 1 0 2.0%
168 Charles Woodson DB OAK 1 0 2.1% 1 0 3.7%
169 Dwayne Allen TE IND 1 0 1.7%
170 Jay Prosch RB HOU 1 0 1.9% 1 0 4.3% 1 0 11.1% 0.0%
171 Brian Hoyer QB HOU 1 0 1.9%
172 Matt Schaub QB BAL 1 0 2.3% 1 0 4.3% 1 0 6.3% 0.0%
173 Michael Campanaro WR BAL 1 1 2.3% 1 1 4.3%
174 George Winn RB DET 1 0 2.3% 1 0 4.8% 1 0 6.3% 0.0%
175 Michael Burton RB DET 1 0 2.3% 1 0 4.8% 1 0 6.3% 0.0%
176 Zach Zenner RB DET 1 0 2.3%
177 Matt Cassel QB DAL 1 0 2.8% 1 0 5.0%
178 Tony Romo QB DAL 1 0 2.8%
179 Damien Williams RB MIA 1 0 2.9%
180 Bruce Miller RB SF 1 1 2.9% 1 1 5.6% 1 1 9.1% 100.0%
181 Branden Oliver RB SD 1 0 2.6%
182 Philip Rivers QB SD 1 0 2.6%

There are several examples of a player receiving a touch or a target inside the red zone, only to watch his usage drop significantly inside the 5 and 10. Since I want the numbers to speak for themselves in most cases, I'll focus mostly on the outliers in an attempt to suggest which players may find themselves having a much different 2016 season:

Carolina was far and away the leader in rush attempts inside the 20 (105), inside the 10 (50) and inside the 5 (32). Not only is it against the odds all of those occurrences happen again, but expecting the Panthers to play with a positive game script at the same rate they did last year would be insane. (For example, 196 of Jonathan Stewart's 242 carries last year came with Carolina either tied or leading, including 155 with the lead.) As the chart above clearly shows, the Panthers ideally wanted Stewart to get them inside the 10, at which point OC Mike Shula wanted to make the defense believe it was a 50/50 proposition as to whether Stewart or Newton would be finishing the drive. For some perspective, Carolina called run inside the red zone 65 times in 2014. Last year, the Panthers ran 50 times inside the 10 alone (and 105 inside the 20 as mentioned above).

Even for all of Jeremy Hill's struggles last year, he was still the superior red-zone runner for the Bengals. Giovani Bernard did not score on any of his four carries inside the 5 or 14 attempts inside the 10, while Hill converted 50 percent or better in both areas. While it is nearly impossible to predict how much carryover there will be from former play-caller Hue Jackson to new OC Ken Zampese, Hill should have a pretty long leash in scoring territory. Considering the current state of their receiving corps as well (including injured TE Tyler Eifert), I would expect Cincinnati to be more (and not less) reliant on Hill and Bernard. As such, Hill is a good bet to bounce back in fantasy and Bernard is a strong pick to at least maintain the kind of fantasy impact he made last year.

Of the 552 carries around the league that occurred inside the 5 among the 182 players I have on the above chart, 215 resulted in touchdowns, resulting in a league average of 38.9 percent. This is particularly notable when looking at Adrian Peterson's woeful 25 percent conversion rate on such attempts, almost half of his career rate of 47.4. In order for one to rebound, I suppose one would need to have a bad season, which AP did not have in 2015. However, if he converts near his career rate in 2015 instead, he could have scored 14 or 15 times (instead of the 11 he finished with).

Todd Gurley was less than 12 months removed from ACL surgery for most of 2015, got a late start to the season and had virtually no supporting cast to speak of last year, so it speaks very well for his future that converted exactly two-thirds of his carries inside the 5 and almost half of his attempts inside the 10 as a rookie. Los Angeles didn't exactly make over its offense in the offseason, but help is on the way - a scary thought for the Rams' opponents this season. Gurley should be even better in Year 2.

DeAngelo Williams nearly led the league in red-zone carries and paced the NFL in attempts inside the 10 and the 5. Of course, that isn't going to happen with a healthy Le'Veon Bell this year. There seems to be some sentiment Williams proved enough last year that Pittsburgh will be willing to let him take some of the burden off Bell, or at least more than the Steelers wanted to early last season. I'd expect a few more token carries for Williams going forward, but Bell is still going to remain among the most well-fed backs in the league regardless. And in case you needed some tangible proof that Pittsburgh's line excels in blocking the run, consider that 12 of the 21 carries Williams and Bell combined for inside the 5 went for touchdowns.

It's not hard to see what the Jaguars were thinking when signing Chris Ivory. After all, one only needs to take a look at T.J. Yeldon's lack of success inside the 5, 10 and 20 to see why they thought he might need help. Here are the problem: 1) no other Jacksonville back fared particularly well either, 2) for as nice as Ivory's 27.8 percent conversion rate inside the 5 looks, it is still well below the league-average 38.9-percent mark I mentioned earlier and it came behind a much better offensive line and 3) Jags OC Greg Olson has historically been a pass-heavy play-caller inside the red zone. Perhaps Olsen changes his stripes and leans on the hard-charging Ivory in goal-to-go situations knowing he now has one of the more physical runners in the league at his disposal. I'd venture a guess and say that won't be the case and any improvement Jacksonville makes in converting opportunities on the ground will come as a result of players like ex-Steeler LT Kelvin Beachum giving the front five a lift or RG A.J. Cann taking the next step in his development during his second year.

Carolina's closest competition in terms of plays run inside the 5 was NFC South rival New Orleans, which saw Mark Ingram (4-for-10), Tim Hightower (4-for-8) and Khiry Robinson (3-for-5) combine to score on 47.8 percent of their carries in that area. It will be interesting to see if HC Sean Payton uses Hightower a bit more often early in the season in an effort to help Ingram make it through a full season for only the second time in what will be his sixth NFL season. I think the bigger story, however, could be Robinson in New York. The evidence against Matt Forte is somewhat damning - out of all backs to have 50 or more rushing attempts from the 5 and in since 2000, he ranks last in conversion rate (23.2 percent), and he has only one season in his career in which he's converted more than a third of such carries. While numbers lie (and I think they do somewhat in this case as Forte has been stuck behind some poor lines throughout his career), I can't imagine the Jets will stick with him in those situations if he doesn't convert them early in the season. Robinson may not necessarily be the answer, but his straight-ahead style is definitely going to give the coaching staff something to consider on 1- or 2-yard plunges.

Next | Receivers | Quarterbacks



Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.