Rest assured someone at some point during each of your drafts
will utter some variation of the words “value pick.”
But what exactly is a value pick? What is value? Value is a relative
term that changes based on public perception. When I consider
value, I’m looking for a positive return on my investment.
Just because a player has an a fourth round ADP and is still sitting
there in the sixth round does not make him good value. At the
same time, taking a player a round or two above his ADP is not
necessarily bad value. Again, everything is relative.
My goal in every pick I make is to take a player I believe will
perform at a level above where I drafted him. Last season, Josh Allen had a ninth round ADP. This year, he has a fourth round
ADP. The rise in ADP is due entirely to his performance. Allen
gave owners one hell of a positive return on investment. On the
flip side, Drew Brees had a seventh round ADP. He retired this
past offseason, but he finished as the overall QB15. That’s
the type of pick we all hope to avoid.
Let’s take a look at which QBs I expect to outperform their ADPs
and which I expect to fail.
The case for Tannehill being undervalued: All
Tannehill has done since he became a starter is be efficient and
put up QB1 numbers.
The case against Tannehill being undervalued:
The Titans remain a run-heavy offense and Tannehill will have
to maintain high touchdown efficiency to continue being a QB1.
Verdict: In his 15 games during the fantasy
season in 2020, Tannehill finished as a top 12 QB eight times.
Even when he had sub-QB1 outings, he rarely completely busted.
Tannehill’s overall ADP is a bit high, but it’s his rank amongst
quarterbacks that makes him undervalued. In leagues where managers
wait on quarterback, you can expect Tannehill to be available
into the double-digit rounds, where he is the ideal late-round
QB.
The Titans will continue to lean on Derrick Henry, but given
their poor defense, it’s likely they will have to throw
more this season. Also playing into that narrative is the acquisition
of Julio Jones. It stands to reason the Titans didn’t trade
for Julio to not use him. Tannehill has two full seasons proving
himself as an efficient quarterback. With Julio and A.J. Brown,
Tannehill has arguably the best wide receiver duo in the NFL at
his disposal. All it would take is a little more volume to give
Tannehill a realistic chance at a top five finish.
The case for Fitzpatrick being undervalued:
In his seven starts last season, Fitzpatrick posted at least 18
fantasy points in six of them.
The case against Fitzpatrick being undervalued:
He’s 38 years old, on yet another team, and hasn’t been consistently
good for a full season his entire career.
Verdict: Fitzpatrick is setup for success in 2021. His typical
situation is as a bridge quarterback to a younger draft pick but
the Football Team doesn’t have anyone. Their backup is Taylor Heinicke. They are committed to Fitzpatrick and, for the first
time in a long time, he’s not at risk of getting benched
for throwing too many picks.
Washington plays in an NFC East filled with suspect defenses,
particularly the Cowboys and the Eagles, both of whom he will
face twice.
I’m certainly not advocating for Fitzpatrick to be your
plan at quarterback, but he’s barely being drafted as a
top 24 QB despite proving to be a consistent low QB2. In deeper
leagues or if you really want to punt QB, Fitzpatrick is an ideal
bridge quarterback for your fantasy team while you wait for a
guy like Justin Fields or Trey Lance to take over.
The case for Mahomes being overvalued: He’s
certainly the overall QB1, but the ADP gap between him and the
other QBs in his tier is too big.
The case against Mahomes being overvalued: We
all remember what he did in 2018 and that is always in his range
of outcomes.
Verdict: Make no mistake about it, Patrick Mahomes is the overall
QB1. He should be the first quarterback drafted. The problem is
where he goes. In order to draft Mahomes, you’ll have to
take him late second/early third round. Yet, guys like Dak Prescott,
Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson aren’t going
until fourth or fifth round. Mahomes’ status as an overvalued
player has nothing to do with him and everything to do with these
other four guys.
Mahomes averaged less than 0.5 FPts/G more than Allen and Murray
last season and he actually averaged 0.5 FPts/G fewer than Prescott
(although Prescott played just five games). As for Jackson, his
2019 was 1.4 FPts/G better than Mahomes’ 2018. These five
quarterbacks are the clear top five for me, but they are all very
close. Mahomes should not be going significantly ahead of them.
For that reason, I have to pass on Mahomes as I know I can get
a similarly valued quarterback 2-3 rounds later.
The case for Stafford being overvalued: He’s
joining a new offense that wants to run the ball and he doesn’t
have rushing upside.
The case against Stafford being overvalued:
His new team has a good offensive line and he has two excellent
wide receivers in Robert
Woods and Cooper
Kupp on what should be a very good offense.
Verdict: I really like Matthew Stafford for the Rams. I think
he’s a sizable upgrade on Jared Goff. He also should be
fine for fantasy but I just can’t advocate for selecting
him in the single digit rounds.
Stafford does not run. He’s never rushed for more than
207 yards in a season and the modern NFL quarterback is mobile.
Not every quarterback has to be Lamar Jackson, but he needs to
at least be Justin Herbert. Stafford does not run, which means
his fantasy output on a weekly basis is entirely reliant on touchdowns.
Even rookies like Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Trey Lance
can rack up a touchdown’s worth of fantasy points via rushing.
Even though Fields and Lance won’t be starting Week 1, I
would rather take a bridge quarterback to hold my team over until
they inevitably win the job than take a pure pocket passer in
the single-digit rounds.
To be clear, Stafford will be fine for fantasy, but he doesn’t
have the ceiling of a rushing quarterback. Jalen Hurts showed
us last season the power of rushing as he was a sub 60% completion
percentage passer, yet still posted three consecutive QB1 weeks,
including an overall QB1 performance in Week 15. If Stafford falls
and he can be that bridge quarterback to a mobile rookie, then
by all means, draft him. Just don’t take him inside the
top 12.
