Who Missed the Cut in 2024 (6/10): D. Prescott, J. Love, B. Purdy, P. Mahomes, T. Tagovailoa, & T. Lawrence

I told you last summer only two QBs have managed to perform at a Top 10 level while missing more than one game since 2021, Jalen Hurts that season and Justin Fields in 2022. You can add one more to the list, though not a new name. Hurts managed to replicate the feat this past year, notching nearly 365 total points despite missing two whole games and most of another (Week 16 at Washington). No other Top 10 QB missed a start. Moreover, all six of last year’s dropouts missed at least one or, in some cases, a lot more. Availability is still everything at the position, it seems.

Dak Prescott fell the farthest of 2024’s QB dropouts, tumbling from the QB3 spot in 2023 all the way to QB31 in 2024. Unsurprisingly, this is because he missed the most games, though it should be noted his 19.3 FPts/G rate was also a career low. Will a clean bill of health and the addition of George Pickens to Dallas’ WR room elevate Dak’s fantasy fortunes in 2025? Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, and Patrick Mahomes, meanwhile, missed only five games between them. Nevertheless, that missed action was enough to render them low-end QB1s. Purdy (QB13) and Mahomes (QB11) didn’t miss the cut by much, but Love’s drop was a bit more concerning (QB18). Like Prescott, he was well off his 2023 per-game rate (18.9 FPts/G v. 22.6 in 2023). No wonder the Pack drafted a WR in the first round for the first time in TWENTY-THREE YEARS this past April.

Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence can’t complain of too few weapons at their disposal, as Love probably could, but missing six and seven starts, respectively, is no way to maintain one’s Top 10 status. It’s fair to wonder if Tua will ever be able to make it through a season cleanly again, something he’s done only once in five years (2023). Lawrence has been healthier, overall, but still seems to be waiting for that breakthrough season pundits have been predicting for him since he was drafted No.1 overall in 2021. Maybe it’s time to accept this is just who he’s been all along, a fringe Top 10 guy even when able to play a full slate?

Most Likely Candidates to Fall from the Top 10 This Year:

Jared Goff, DET: Outside of maybe Mahomes, no NFL quarterback has benefited from great coaching as much as Goff has in his nearly decade-long NFL career. After a disastrous rookie season under Jeff Fisher, the Cal product has commanded offenses for Rams wunderkind Sean McVay -- with assists from OCs Matt LaFleur and Kevin O’Connell -- and wildly successful Lions iconoclast, Dan Campbell, with heavy contributions from OC Ben Johnson. If you’re scoring at home, that’s five current NFL coaches Goff has worked under, not including a couple guys on the other side of the ball (Raheem Morris and Aaron Glenn). He’s a former No.1 pick, so the talent was always there. Man, has he had the good fortune of playing for some brilliant football minds, though.

Campbell is still the head honcho in the Motor City but was a victim of his own success this past off-season, losing both Johnson (now the Bears HC) and Glenn (Jets HC). Enter John Morton, who has been an OC at the professional level for exactly one year (2017 for the Jets) despite having coached in the league since the late 90s. Lions players are saying all the right things as training camp commences and he did do great work with rookie Bo Nix for the Broncos last year. It’s fair, however, to wonder why a guy who’s spent 25+ years in the profession has rarely merited more than an ancillary assistantship on an NFL staff.

Tutelage aside, I’m always a little nervous about Goff’s sustainability as a top-tier signal caller. Last year’s Top 15 QBs averaged about 409 rushing yards. Lamar Jackson led the way with 915 while Goff produced only 56, the fewest by far. Even a clearly hampered Aaron Rodgers almost doubled that total. Virtually unknown OC plus no legs? It’s cause for concern.

Sam Darnold, SEA: If Goff’s long-time success isn’t proof coaching matters at the professional level, maybe Darnold’s career trajectory will convince you. Considered a can’t miss prospect back in 2018, Darnold lasted just three seasons with the Jets, two of them spent under the objectively terrible Adam Gase. He never ranked better than QB24. Next came a two-year stint in Carolina, wherein he was frequently injured and then beat out for the starting job by Baker Mayfield. No shame in that, looking backward, but Darnold still had one more year to toil in mediocrity (2023 in San Francisco) before…

He emerged as one of the league’s most reliable riflemen in 2024. Where the heck did that come from??? Had top Vikings pick J.J. McCarthy not succumbed to a season-ending injury in the preseason, it’s not known whether Darnold would even have played for Minnesota last year. But play he did and, to the surprise of basically everyone, very, very well. He’d only topped 3,000 yards in a season once (barely in 2019) and had never thrown for even 20 TD passes. In 2024, he bombed away to the tune of 4,319 yards and 35 TD strikes running Kevin O’Connell’s high-flying offense.

It was a great comeback story for a guy who’d failed living up to lofty expectations. Sadly, I fear it’s going to be a very short story for Darnold, who was not franchise tagged by the Vikes and eventually ended up in Seattle, where a green OC and a dangerously porous offensive line awaits. Darnold will have some weapons in the Emerald City (Cooper Kupp and burgeoning star Jaxon Smith-Njigba) but it’s another new system for him to learn and he’ll even have some competition. Don’t be surprised if Jalen Milroe steals some starts this season.

Kyler Murray, ARI: Murray was drafted just a year after Darnold (No.1 in 2019) and has only played for the Cardinals, and two different head coaches, in his NFL career (Darnold’s at seven and counting). Not surprisingly, this stability has led to more consistency overall. Murray has never averaged fewer than 21 FPts/G in six seasons, something not even Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow, last year’s QB1 and QB2, can boast of. He also promises fantasy GMs a high floor, leveraging uncommon speed and tight quarters maneuverability to add extra value with his legs.

So what’s not to like about the Cards’ franchise man heading into 2025, in what should be his professional prime? For starters, 2024 was the first time in four years (since the transition to a 17-game season) Murray had appeared in every game. He missed three in 2021, double that in 2022, and nine more in 2023. We’ve already covered why missing games usually extinguishes a QB’s Top 10 dreams. There’s no telling whether Murray can stay upright in 2025, but the last several years of data suggest the risk is still high he won’t. On top of that, Murray isn’t a particularly prolific passer by today’s standards. Despite three fully healthy seasons (2019, 2020, and last year), he’s never cracked the Top 10 in TD passes OR passing yardage. Not once in six years. As the kids would say these days, that makes him fairly “mid” in the passing department.

I was high on Murray heading into 2024 and even tagged him as a Top 10 Riser, which he validated, albeit barely. I’m less excited about him this season. Those legs might allow him to keep truckin’, but they put him in harm’s way too frequently and won’t always cover for an average wing.