Who Missed the Cut in 2024 (6/10): C. McCaffrey, R. Mostert, T. Etienne, J. Mixon, B. Hall, & R. White

This is probably as good a time as any to tell you I nailed eight of nine dropouts (QBs, RBs, and WRs) in this series last summer. We’ll get to my one whiff shortly, but here’s what I had to say about Raheem Mostert a year ago: “[He’s] an incredibly high 2024 regression risk.” And here’s what ChatGPT had to say about Rachaad White (long story…go read last year’s piece): “If White fails to impress early in the season, the coaching staff might start to involve other backs, cutting into his workload and making him a more volatile option.” Is the singularity already upon us? Mostert regressed to the tune of NINETEEN fewer touchdowns, a steeper decline than I could have imagined. And the Bucs did indeed “involve other backs,” namely Mar’Keise “Bucky” Irving, my very best $1 spend of the 2024 season and fellow Oregon product (GO DUCKS!).

Travis Etienne, like Mostert and White, was also Wally Pipp’d in 2024, earning more touches than running mate Tank Bigsby but scoring two fewer FPts/G in the same number of appearances. By all accounts, the pecking order has officially flipped this summer. There isn’t a back alive who could Wally Pipp Christian McCaffrey. When healthy, he’s indisputably a Top 2 RB. That “when healthy” part did him in again last year, though, when CMC managed only four midseason appearances and toppled all the way down to RB72. Who’s brave enough to draft him highly again this August knowing he’s lost three of eight professional seasons to major injuries? (Not it!)

Our final two RB dropouts, Joe Mixon and Breece Hall, managed to stay very relevant despite sliding out of the Top 10 club in 2024. I should say barely in Mixon’s case as he only missed overtaking RB10 James Conner by 4 measly yards. His 14.6 FPts/G mark was good enough for ninth overall and probably should have secured him a Top 10 return. Hall wasn’t as close to replicating his 2023 success, finishing up the season as RB17. Respectable considering how bad the Jets ended up being, but…yeah, we expected a whole lot more after the former Cyclone’s RB6 breakout the year prior.

Most Likely Candidates to Fall from the Top 10 This Year:

Josh Jacobs, GB: Jacobs raised eyebrows in February when he encouraged the Packer brass to acquire a proven WR1 during the off-season. Ironically, not every Packer fan thought he was the answer at RB1 before the 2024 season started. I say this because…well, I was one of them. Man, did he make me look bad. Everyone figured, myself included, that Jordan Love, fresh off a scintillating 2023 playoff run, would be the centerpiece of a very young and exciting Packers’ offense. Turns out it was Jacobs instead. The former Raider amassed 1,671 yards from scrimmage and 16 touchdowns, a career high, on 337 touches.

There’s no obvious reason he can’t run it back in 2025, especially if Love can recapture his 2023 form and take the still young Green Bay offense to new heights. But back to those 337 touches first. That’s a lot. Only four backs (Saquon, the ageless King Henry, Kyren Williams, and Bijan Robinson) garnered more last season. And as the FFToday “2025 Outlook” blurb points out, Jacobs “struggled mightily” the year after a similar workload in 2022, his best as a pro. Maybe there’s no causal connection there, but it’s at least an interesting data point heading into August drafts.

So is the fact Green Bay added that desired WR1, Matthew Golden, in April’s draft and appears to also be deeper at the RB position. Golden has blazing speed and should add back some balance to a Packers offense which attempted 100 fewer passes in 2024 than it had in 2023. Marshawn Lloyd, meanwhile, 2023’s third-round pick, is back after a lost rookie season to compete for touches behind Jacobs. Teams usually expect third-round picks to play. He’ll probably make me a liar again, but…I’m skeptical Jacobs has an encore performance in him this year.

James Cook, BUF: I promised I’d get to that one whiff from the 2024 Top 10 Dropouts series, so…let’s get this over with. My rationale for putting Cook on this list a year ago still seems solid, in retrospect: 1) he faced younger, better competition for carries in 2024 than he had in 2023 (Ray Davis v. Latavius Murray); and 2) there were legitimate fears about his red-zone upside (always endangered by the league’s most voracious goal-line vulture, Josh Allen). In reality, Davis ended up being a disappointing RB2 after plenty of pre-season hype and Cook went out and tripled his career TD output in his third NFL campaign. Yes, TRIPLED!

That second stat is the one I can’t get over. In four seasons and 50 total games at Georgia, Dalvin’s kid bro scored 20 total touchdowns. Then, out of the blue, he scores almost that many in 34 fewer games as a Bill? Playing next to the most dangerous red zone runner in the league??? Make it make sense! I don’t have a very good year-over-year memory (hence, why I’m so ideally qualified to author this series), but I do remember being blown away by his continual scoring in 2024. I still am.

Now, it should be pretty obvious why I’m willing to double down in 2025. The chances of Cook scoring that many times again this year is vanishingly small. On top of that, he doesn’t command the type of usage it might take to replicate such lofty figures. Of the top 20 RB scorers last season, he touched the pigskin more than just one of them, Detroit’s David Montgomery (who missed three games and also shared a backfield with breakout star Jahmyr Gibbs instead of Ray Davis). That’s really my whole argument, gang. Oh, and Josh Allen.

De’Von Achane, MIA: I’m already sick about this, y’all. Nobody is a bigger Achane fanboy than yours truly. I’ve been infatuated with his skill set since the Fish nabbed him out of A&M in the 2023 draft. I’ve gone on to draft him both years and have never regretted that decision. Not when his rookie campaign got off to a rocky start with an opening weekend DNP and then a two-touch follow-up in Week 2. Not when he missed a month due to injury later in 2023. Not, especially, when he was considered too expensive in 2024 drafts after that tantalizing, if up-and-down, rookie season. Too expensive compared to what? When a guy is capable of scoring more than a fantasy point per touch, as Achane did as a rook…money is no object.

It won’t be this year either, most likely, as I’m almost certain to talk myself into grabbing him once again. After all, I could be wrong that his diminutive frame (lightest RB1 in the league) and injury history foreshadow a precipitous fall. I could be wrong that the Dolphins recognize his fragility and will do everything possible to cap his touches at the 225-250 mark (he tallied an unsustainable 281 last year). I could be wrong that the reason they drafted Jaylen Wright last year and Ollie Gordon II this year (and added Alexander Mattison as a free agent, for good measure) is to do precisely that and limit their star’s exposure to big-time NFL punishment. I could be wrong about all these things and truthfully, sincerely hope that I am. I just don’t think I will be.

Feel free to throw caution to the wind, like I probably will, and spend wildly for the most dangerous Dolphin. Just don’t say I didn’t warn us, yeah?