Note: Quarterbacks are too nuanced to cover here, so this guide will focus on running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.

1. Consider the Team Situation

Is there a new head coach or offensive coordinator? Scheme changes matter a lot for projections.

Examples of rookies entering situations with offseason coaching changes include RB Ashton Jeanty, WR Emeka Egbuka, RB TreVeyon Henderson, RB Quinshon Judkins, WR Travis Hunter, RB Bhayshul Tuten, WR Jayden Higgins, WR Kyle Williams, WR Luther Burden III, RB Jaydon Blue, and TE Colston Loveland. For these players, projections will rely less on 2024 team stats and more on what the new staff has done historically.

2. Study Coaching Tendencies

If a team has a new coach or coordinator, look at their past tendencies: pass/run ratios, whether they’ve leaned on one bell cow or rotated multiple backs, etc.

Pete Carroll (LV), Mike Vrabel (NE), Ben Johnson (CHI), Liam Coen (JAX), and Kellen Moore (NO) are all head coaches with previous track records as a coach or offensive coordinator. That makes their rookies easier to project for 2025.

For example, Pete Carroll’s Seahawks ran the ball on fewer than 40% of snaps in his final three years—bottom third in the league. Compare that with Raiders OC Chip Kelly, who called runs on 44% of plays during his Philadelphia tenure (2013–2015). With Las Vegas drafting RB Ashton Jeanty early and Kelly now coordinating, it’s safe to project at least a 44% run rate for the Raiders in 2025. That baseline helps estimate Jeanty’s potential workload.

3. No Coaching Changes? Stick with the Status Quo

When a rookie lands on a team with the same coaching staff, you can assume fewer changes in scheme. In those cases, start with last year’s ratios and project from there.

Rookies with more stable coaching environments include RB Omarion Hampton (LAC), RB RJ Harvey (DEN), RB Kaleb Johnson (PIT), WR Tetairoa McMillan (CAR), WR Matthew Golden (GB), and TE Tyler Warren (IND). With these rookies, you can trust last season’s play-calling balance as a baseline, then move to the next step in evaluation.

4. Evaluate Vacated Opportunities

The real key to rookie projections: who’s gone? Carries and targets vacated by departing players must be redistributed.

Take Pittsburgh for example. Najee Harris logged 263 carries in 2024 but is no longer with the team. The Steelers had 533 total rushes last season, so even with some regression under OC Arthur Smith, 500 carries feels realistic. Subtract Jaylen Warren’s projected 160 and Kenneth Gainwell’s modest role, and there’s still a huge slice of opportunity for rookie Kaleb Johnson assuming he can mimic Najee’s role.

The Chargers remade their running back room, letting go of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, making all 463 carries from 2024 available to rookie Omarian Hampton and veteran Najee Harris. This bodes well for Hampton, even with Harris (eye) avoiding IR to start the season.

The same principle applies to targets. WR Emeka Egbuka’s outlook in Tampa Bay looked limited earlier in the offseason because few targets were vacated. But with Chris Godwin (October return?) and Jalen McMillan (IR-return) banged up, a fresh batch of opportunities has opened up, making Egbuka a more attractive redraft option than he was in May.

5. Apply Projections to Draft Value

Once you’ve worked through scheme, tendencies, and vacated volume, you can project realistic workloads and see which rookies are worth targeting relative to ADP. Let’s take a look at a few specific cases…

RB Kaleb Johnson, Steelers

The first question is do the Steelers want to expand Jaylen Warren’s role? Warren had 120 carries last season and I could see that number growing to possibly 150-175 but anything above that doesn’t seem realistic as he’s best utilized as a passing down and change-of-pace back. So, with Najee gone, Johnson could easily inherit 250+ carries. Even at a modest 4.5 YPC, that projects to 1,200+ yards. Warren and Gainwell (85 carries?) cap his ceiling a bit, but Johnson profiles as a strong rookie pick—especially in non-PPR leagues.

WR Travis Hunter, Jaguars

Jacksonville lost Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Evan Engram, vacating 153 targets. In Liam Coen’s system, wideouts commanded 334 targets last year in Tampa Bay. Even after Brian Thomas Jr. gets his share (133 from last season), Hunter has a clear path to 120 looks with Dyami Brown and newly acquired Tim Patrick to share 80 combined. Volume alone makes Hunter a potential rookie breakout.

TE Tyler Warren, Colts

Warren is a unique case in that the coaching staff is the same, but QB has changed. The Colts only targeted TEs 74 times in 2024, but Daniel Jones replaces Anthony Richardson at QB who’s had a woeful time completing passes (47.7%) in his early career. Jones is far more accurate (66% over past three seasons), which should boost TE efficiency in Indianapolis. Warren’s athleticism sets him apart from the Colts’ other blocking-first TEs, and even a modest bump to 100 targets could yield 70 catches. That’s solid TE1 territory.

Final Thoughts

Projections are the backbone of draft prep. While rookies come with more uncertainty than veterans, the process for evaluating them is straightforward: study coaching trends, factor in vacated opportunities, and apply realistic projections to ADP. Follow these steps, and you’ll be better positioned to spot which rookies can turn into league-winning value this season. Good luck in your drafts!