Final Score Prediction
Patriots 31, Broncos 17
Fantasy Player Rankings and Projections by Mike Krueger |
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New England Patriots |
Rank |
Player |
Projections |
QB 3 |
Tom Brady |
Pass: 340, 3 TD Rush: 0, 0 |
RB 7 |
Stevan Ridley |
Rush: 50, 0 TD Rec: 2-10, 0 |
RB 15 |
BenJarvus Green-Ellis |
Rush: 30, 0 TD Rec: 2-10, 0 |
WR 5 |
Wes Welker |
Rec: 8-90, 1 TD |
WR 16 |
Deion Branch |
Rec: 4-40, 0 TD |
TE 1 |
Rob Gronkowski |
Rec: 6-80, 1 TD |
TE 3 |
Aaron Hernandez |
Rec: 6-70, 1 TD |
K 6 |
Stephen Gostkowski |
FG: 1/1 XP: 4/4 |
DEF 2 |
Defense / ST |
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Game Notes
Teams meet for third time in postseason. Broncos are 2-0 vs. Patriots in playoffs. Clubs met in Week 15 (New England 41-23).
Broncos Denver aims for 1st postseason road win since AFC Championship Game at Pit. on 1/11/98... Club won AFC West title for 11th time in franchise history... Incl. postseason, Broncos have 4-0 record in OT games this season... QB Tim Tebow threw game-winning 80-yard touchdown pass to WR Demaryius Thomas on 1st play from scrimmage in overtime last week, longest TD ever scored in OT of NFL postseason game. Tebow completed 10 passes for 316 yards last week & became 1st player to average at least 30 yards per completion in postseason game (min: 5 completions) in NFL history. Tebow's 316 passing yards last week were 3rd-most in postseason game in franchise history (HOFer JOHN ELWAY, 385 & 336). Posted 125.6 passer rating last week, highest rating in playoff game in Broncos history. Rushed for 93 yards in last game vs. Patriots. Incl. postseason, Tebow is 8-4 as starter in '11... Club averaged NFL-best 164.5 rushing yards per game in '11 & totaled single-season franchise record with 2,632 rush yards... RB Willis McGahee has 4 rush TDs in past 5 road playoff games. Rushed for 70 yards on 7 att. (10 avg.) last game vs. NE. McGahee (1,199) posted 4th career 1,000-yard rushing season in '11. Tied NFL-best in '11 with 7 100-yard rushing games (ARIAN FOSTER). RB Lance Ball had 32-yard rush TD in only game vs. Patriots... WR Demaryius Thomas set franchise postseason record last week with 204 receiving yards & became 7th player in NFL history to reach 200 receiving yards in game. Thomas had 7 catches for 116 yards (16.6 avg.) in last game vs. NE. WR Eddie Royal had 30-yard TD catch in postseason debut last week... TE Daniel Fells tied career-high with 3 TD catches in '11 (3 in '09 w/ StL)... Rookie LB Von Miller led AFC rookies & ranked 2nd among NFL rookies with 11.5 sacks (ALDON SMITH, 14). Registered most sacks by Denver rookie since '82... LB Elvis Dumervil has 3 sacks in 3 career regular season games vs. NE. LB D.J. Williams led club with 90 tackles. Robert Ayers posted 2 sacks in playoff debut... CB Champ Bailey has 2 career postseason INTs, incl. 100-yard INT-TD return on 1/14/06 vs. NE (tied for 2nd-longest return in postseason history)... Rookie S Quinton Carter (4th round, No. 108) had INT in postseason debut... Club had 3 players selected to 2012 Pro Bowl (CB Bailey, LB Dumervil, LB Miller).
Patriots Since 2000, NE has won NFL-best 9 division titles... Patriots became 3rd team in NFL history to win at least 10 games in 9 consecutive seasons (SF, 1983-1998, 16 consecutive seasons; Ind., 2002-2010, 9)... With win in Divisional Playoffs, BILL BELICHICK (15) will tie Pro Football HOFer CHUCK NOLL (16) for 4th-most playoff wins by head coach in NFL history... NE averaged AFC-best 32.1 points per game in regular season... QB Tom Brady (4,407) needs 104 passing yards to surpass HOFer DAN MARINO (4,510) for 5th-most postseason passing yards in NFL history. Brady (30) needs 3 TD passes to surpass HOFer TERRY BRADSHAW (30), KURT WARNER (31), & Marino (32) for 3rd-most postseason TD passes all-time. Has 14-5 (.737) playoff record, tied with HOFer TERRY BRADSHAW for best postseason record as starting QB in NFL history (min. 15 starts). Has 8-2 record at home in playoffs. Brady had 5,235 passing yards in '11, 2nd-most passing yards in season in NFL history, trailing only DREW BREES (5,476). In last game vs. Den. (12/18/11), Brady completed 23 of 34 passes (67.6 pct.) for 320 yards with 2 TDs vs. 0 INTs & 117.3 passer rating... RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis reached 10+ rush TDs in consecutive seasons (13 in '10; 11 in '11). RB Danny Woodhead totaled 98 scrimmage yards (46 rushing, 52 receiving) in only career postseason game (1/16/11 vs. NYJ)... WR Wes Welker joined CRIS CARTER (122 in '94 & '95) this season as only players to have 120+ receptions twice in career (123 in '09; 122 in '11). Joined HOFer JERRY RICE & MARVIN HARRISON as only players to have 4 100-catch seasons. Has 2 TD catches in past 3 regular season games vs. Broncos. WR Deion Branch (784) needs 16 receiving yards to become 22nd player in NFL history to reach 800 in postseason career. WR Chad Ochocinco had 33-yard TD reception in last regular-season meeting vs. Broncos... TE Rob Gronkowski set single-season record for TEs in receiving yards (1,327) & TD receptions (17) in '11. Became 1st TE in NFL history to lead league in TD catches. TE Aaron Hernandez had career-best 9 catches for 129 yards (14.3 avg.) with 1 TD in only game against Den. Had career-best in catches (79), receiving yards (910) & TDs (7) in '11... LB Jerod Mayo led club with 95 tackles... LB Rob Ninkovich had career-best 6.5 sacks this season... DE Mark Anderson had 2 sacks in last game vs. Den... CB Kyle Arrington tied for NFL-best with 7 INTs. Patriots tied for NFL-best with 8 Pro Bowl players (Brady, DE Andre Carter, TE Gronkowski, G Logan Mankins, ST MATTHEW SLATER, G Brian Waters, WR Welker & DT Vince Wilfork.)
Results and Schedule
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New England Patriots |
Week |
Date |
Opp |
H/A |
Score |
Dif |
1 |
2011-09-12 |
MIA |
A |
W 38-24 |
+14 |
2 |
2011-09-18 |
SD |
H |
W 35-21 |
+14 |
3 |
2011-09-25 |
BUF |
A |
L 31-34 |
-3 |
4 |
2011-10-02 |
OAK |
A |
W 31-19 |
+12 |
5 |
2011-10-09 |
NYJ |
H |
W 30-21 |
+9 |
6 |
2011-10-16 |
DAL |
H |
W 20-16 |
+4 |
7 |
|
Bye |
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|
8 |
2011-10-30 |
PIT |
A |
L 17-25 |
-8 |
9 |
2011-11-06 |
NYG |
H |
L 20-24 |
-4 |
10 |
2011-11-13 |
NYJ |
A |
W 37-16 |
+21 |
11 |
2011-11-21 |
KC |
H |
W 34-3 |
+31 |
12 |
2011-11-27 |
PHI |
A |
W 38-20 |
+18 |
13 |
2011-12-04 |
IND |
H |
W 31-24 |
+7 |
14 |
2011-12-11 |
WAS |
A |
W 34-27 |
+7 |
15 |
2011-12-18 |
DEN |
A |
W 41-23 |
+18 |
16 |
2011-12-24 |
MIA |
H |
W 27-24 |
+3 |
17 |
2012-01-01 |
BUF |
H |
W 49-21 |
+28 |
WC |
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Bye |
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DP |
2012-01-14 |
DEN |
H |
W 45-10 |
+35 |
CC |
2012-01-22 |
BAL |
H |
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Offense Stats Comparison
|
DEN Offense |
NE Offense |
NFL Avg. |
Adv. |
Points for |
16.5 |
36.0 |
22.4 |
NE |
Rushing yards |
176.8 |
110.0 |
121.7 |
DEN |
Rushing yards per attempt |
4.71 |
3.72 |
4.37 |
DEN |
Completion % |
47.6% |
66.2% |
60.0% |
NE |
Passing yards |
155.0 |
324.3 |
225.9 |
NE |
Passing yards per completion |
12.73 |
12.96 |
11.25 |
NE |
Passing yards per attempt |
6.06 |
8.58 |
6.75 |
NE |
Interceptions |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
NE |
Fumbles lost |
1.3 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
NE |
Sacks allowed |
3.0 |
2.0 |
2.4 |
NE |
3rd down conversions |
28.2% |
48.6% |
37.1% |
NE |
4th down conversions |
33.3% |
66.7% |
40.2% |
NE |
Time of possession |
30:56 |
29:33 |
30:12 |
DEN |
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Defense Stats Comparison
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DEN Defense |
NE Defense |
NFL Avg. |
Adv. |
Points against |
23.8 |
23.0 |
22.4 |
NE |
Rushing yards |
147.3 |
124.0 |
121.7 |
NE |
Rushing yards per attempt |
4.44 |
5.10 |
4.37 |
DEN |
Completion % |
59.1% |
60.3% |
60.0% |
DEN |
Passing yards |
208.8 |
295.0 |
225.9 |
DEN |
Passing yards per completion |
11.24 |
12.98 |
11.25 |
DEN |
Passing yards per attempt |
6.64 |
7.83 |
6.75 |
DEN |
INT return |
0.0 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
NE |
Fumble recoveries |
0.5 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
NE |
Sacks |
2.3 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
NE |
3rd down conversions |
30.2% |
43.1% |
37.1% |
DEN |
4th down conversions |
50.0% |
42.9% |
40.2% |
NE |
Time of possession |
33:03 |
30:27 |
30:12 |
NE |
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Special Teams Stats Comparison
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DEN |
NE |
NFL Avg. |
Adv. |
Yards per punt return |
8.8 |
6.8 |
9.2 |
DEN |
Yards per kick return |
22.7 |
21.6 |
23.6 |
DEN |
Yards allowed per punt return |
14.7 |
9.2 |
9.2 |
NE |
Yards allowed per kick return |
25.8 |
19.8 |
23.6 |
NE |
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Misc Stats Comparison
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DEN |
NE |
NFL Avg. |
Adv. |
Penalties |
7.0 |
3.8 |
6.1 |
NE |
Penalty yards |
52.3 |
36.8 |
51.9 |
NE |
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Note: Team statistics are shown as the average per game
through Weeks 12 to 17 of the 2011 season after deducting the best
and worst value from the data set. The exception is yards per rush attempt, completion %, yards per
pass completion, yards per pass attempt, 3rd and 4th down conversions, special teams and the NFL averages, which are each calculated based on
totals through Weeks 12 to 17 with no adjustment.
Weather
Team vs. Team History
Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots |
Season |
Week |
Date |
Vis |
Home |
Score |
Winner |
2000 |
5 |
2000-10-01 |
NE |
DEN |
28-19 |
NE |
2001 |
7 |
2001-10-28 |
NE |
DEN |
20-31 |
DEN |
2002 |
8 |
2002-10-27 |
DEN |
NE |
24-16 |
DEN |
2003 |
9 |
2003-11-03 |
NE |
DEN |
30-26 |
NE |
2005 |
6 |
2005-10-16 |
NE |
DEN |
20-28 |
DEN |
2005 |
DP |
2006-01-14 |
NE |
DEN |
13-27 |
DEN |
2006 |
3 |
2006-09-24 |
DEN |
NE |
17-7 |
DEN |
2008 |
7 |
2008-10-20 |
DEN |
NE |
7-41 |
NE |
2009 |
5 |
2009-10-11 |
NE |
DEN |
17-20 |
DEN |
2011 |
15 |
2011-12-18 |
NE |
DEN |
41-23 |
NE |
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Note: Only playoff games from the 2004 to 2010 seasons are included in the team vs. team history. Playoff games from seasons prior to 2004 are not currently included in the database. DP = Divisional Playoff
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