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Mike Krueger | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


DFS Lineup Review - Week 7
10/22/18


The trade of Carlos Hyde to Jacksonville on Friday dropped a low-priced Chubb bomb on the DFS community and the lack of high-powered offenses on the main slate were the main storylines for Week 7. Without any options from Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Kansas City, Cincinnati and the Los Angeles Chargers, ownership was concentrated on the Rams and the Browns who both had premium matchups.

Here’s a look at my cash game Lineup for Fanduel in Week 7.

Quarterback

Jared Goff ($8300) and Kirk Cousins ($8000) were my considerations on the high end, but roster construction was leading me towards a low-priced QB where Baker Mayfield ($7100) and C.J. Beathard ($6400) became viable options. I preferred Mayfield but was comfortable with Beathard in a game that setup for 35+ pass attempts that also included a reasonably healthy Marqise Goodwin. Beathard had thrown 2 TDs in each of his three previous starts and the Rams secondary hasnít been one to fear this season. I was somewhat surprised Beathard was 22-25 percent owned in double-ups given he was probably a thinner play from a projected points standpoint than Mayfield and Jameis Winston ($7800) who had similar ownership.

Running Back

Nick Chubb ($4800) became a lock for me once it was clear he would take over the lead running back duties. I knew heíd be limited in the pass game but was comfortable with a touch projection of 17-20 with all the goaline work in a friendly game environment.

With Gurley a lock for the Flex spot, my last running back decision came down to Ezekiel Elliott ($8400) and Tarik Cohen ($6600). Before the trade of Carlos Hyde, I had Cohen penciled in and briefly considered Kerryon Jonson ($6500) who was in line to see an increase in volume given pass-catching specialist Theo Riddick was going to miss this week. However, I wasnít comfortable assuming the Lions coaching staff would increase Johnsonís role and knowing LeGarrette Blount would be lurking to take goaline plunges, I decided to leave KJ off this team. Plus, Chubbís low price allowed me to easily fit in Zeke. The decision between Zeke and Cohen was a tough one as I really like the game environment for Cohen but Zekeís higher touch projection, goaline role and three-down usage ultimately won out.

Wide Receiver

Adam Thielen ($8700) was lock as my highest projected wide receiver on the slate and I couldnít jam him in my lineup fast enough once Chubb became a thing. Wind was a concern for the Vikings-Jets game on Sunday morning but not enough to persuade me off the top Vikings receiver and one of the best receivers in fantasy football.

While rolling with Zeke is somewhat understandable, not playing Jarvis Landry ($6500) was a big mistake given his price. I didnít feel great about having three Browns in cash even in a plus matchup and wasnít comfortable with Landryís recent inefficiency with Mayfield at quarterback. Plus, I preferred both Rams wide receivers as my WR2 over Landry with Robert Woods ($7700) my main target. Woods was projected to see more targets in the slot with Cooper Kupp out and would mostly avoid any entanglements with Richard Sherman.

Jermaine Kearse ($5000) was low-priced salary saver at wide receiver this week. He projected to play from the slot with 6-8 projectable targets given the history of the Jets passing offense this season. I also considered John Brown ($6500), Marqise Goodwin ($5500) and Taylor Gabriel ($5900) in the mid-tier.

Tight End

David Njoku ($5700) was an early-week lock in my roster and he never moved. Some brief consideration was given to Jordan Reed ($6000) and O.J. Howard ($5800) but projected targets and game environment made the Browns tight end an easy call. He was roughly 70 percent owned in cash games. I pivoted to Reed in my tournament lineup.

Flex

On pace for 32 touchdowns, the DFS community went all in on Todd Gurley ($9500). He was 90-plus percent owned in cash games this week and heíll remain a lock until his price climbs north of $11K. Note: My intention was to put Gurley in the Flex position but forgot to adjust my roster prior to lock. Dumb. Always put a late-game player in your flex position (if possible) to allow yourself more pivot options.

Defense

My initial lineup build prior to the Chubb news included the Browns defense ($3200) facing a turnover-prone Jameis Winston but I was $100 shy of fitting them into this lineup. My only other option was to punt with the 49ers. The Colts ($4100), Bills ($3400) and Ravens ($3400) were also under consideration but couldnít fit them in given my desire at the RB, WR and TE positions.

Results

This was one of my worst DFS weeks since 2014. The need to jam in Elliott led me to pay down at quarterback and to a roster construction that just wasn’t going to profitable given my narrowed down player pool and what happened on the field. I felt good about all my plays at the RB, WR and TE positions and obviously new I was punting at Defense, but was thrilled to get two volume heavy running backs and my top-ranked wide receiver into this lineup. Woods was close to a lock for me as well, so I was willing to roll the dice with the 49ers at a position with a lot of variance in order to fit him in. It all backfired resulting in a big loss. I should’ve come off of Thielen, down to Landry, and upgraded at Quarterback and Defense for a more balanced roster.

On to Week 8…