Note: ADP and rankings based upon a 12-team league with PPR scoring

Undervalued RBs

Kenneth Walker, Seahawks
ADP: 4.06, RB 16

Quick, "How many games is Walker going to play in 2025?" If you said 16-17, he's ranked too low. If you answered 10-12, there are (at least) 20 RBs who will exceed his projections. You should have this answer in mind prior to entering your draft room. The Seahawks have a top-4 schedule for running back success this season. If you believe he'll be on the field, that new OC Klint Kubiak will rebuild the running game, that drafting three offensive linemen improves their "push," and that using the run to keep pressure off QB Sam Darnold is their best strategy for success, you should feel confident in his valuation late in Round 3. It's a scaled-down version of the Christian McCaffrey dilemma this season. You're going to take him as his ADP approaches, or one of the next four GMs will.

If you're worried that RB2 Zach Charbonnet's success last season (filling-in for the injured Walker) will lead to something resembling a 60-40% backfield split, I encourage you to breakdown his stats from last season. Two blowout wins account for a big chunk of Charbonnet's production. The Seahawks hosted the demoralized Dolphins in Week 3. Miami lost Tua the previous week, and lost back-up Skylar Thompson during the Seattle game. Charbonnet took advantage with 91 rushing yards and 2 TDs. The mediocre Arizona defense allowed him 134 yards rushing, and 2 more TDs in Week 14, along with 7/7/59 receiving. But those same stats show eight games in which he averaged 3.8 YPC or less, and nine games with 6 or fewer rushes.

Most rankings I see have taken a middle-of-the-road approach, by lowering Walker (perceived risk), and bumping-up Charbonnet. My advice is to take Walker at ADP, without hesitation, or put him on your DND list and plan your draft accordingly.

Aaron Jones, Vikings
ADP: 6.04, RB 25

In his first season with the Vikings, Jones was being drafted as RB24/25. He finished as RB12, between James Conner (RB11) and Jonathan Taylor (RB13). What's his ADP heading into 2025? A value-rich RB25, being drafted lower than four rookies and Joe "walking boot" Mixon. Fantasy GMs seemingly aren't impressed, but a 2-year extension with the Vikings makes him the 7th-highest paid RB in the league, according to Over the Cap. If you're drafting from holes 9-12 and want a tier-1 QB, imagine this realistic start to your draft:

Round 1: Stud WR (or RB)
Round 2: Stud RB (or WR)
Round 3: QB4 Burrow or QB5 Hurts
Round 4: TE3 Kittle
Round 5: WR25 D. Smith, WR26 X. Worthy or WR27 Jamo Williams
Round 6: RB12 from 2024 (Aaron Jones).

A high-risk, high-reward strategy is to go Zero-RB. Start out WR-WR and roll with Jones in Round 6 as your RB1 (nice matchups in Weeks 1-3). Those matchups are reception-enhanced, with WR Jordan Addison suspended his first three games. Short completions to Jones will also help first-year starter, QB J.J. McCarthy, find his rhythm.

For your consideration, Lions dual-threat Jahmyr Gibbs had 63 targets last season. Aaron Jones responded with 62 of his own for 51/408/2. Jones is now paired with backfield mate, Jordan Mason, not known for his receiving skills (14 catches in three seasons with SF). Although Jones is 30 years old, he doesn't have the same wear and tear as comparable veterans, since his first seven years (Green Bay) were spent mostly in an RB tandem. In his first season as a featured back with the Vikings, he responded with career highs in rushing attempts (255) and yards (1,138). I'm happy to take 4.46 ypc, for a proven 3-down back on a high-scoring team... priced a whopping 30-40% off.

Tank Bigsby, Jaguars
ADP: 11.10, RB 43

There's one thing every football coach wants to see -- improvement week-to-week and year-over-year. Bigsby has put that on tape, for all to see. Unfortunately, he also put the ball on the ground four times (1 lost) in 2024. I'll forgive his early fumbles, up until now. He's just 22-years old, and plays behind a horrible run-blocking line (ranked 31st in Yards Before Contact/Attempt). You'll notice I didn't chart his receiving numbers, there weren't enough to include.

Let's dissolve this committee. Travis Etienne's 2024 numbers went in the wrong direction, behind that same offensive line. Etienne managed just 2 TDs last season, one each in the first two weeks of the season. I double-checked; he hasn't scored since 9/15/2024. He posted single-digit fantasy points for 9 of the 15 games he played, a far cry from the 2,133 yards and 17 total TDs in his first two seasons. A lot of things have changed in Duval County -- a new GM, HC and the arrival of WR/CB Travis Hunter. One thing has stayed the same -- the actual/perceived decline of Etienne as a rushing back. Trade rumors persist, and the Jaguars backfilled the position with RBs in the 4th and 7th rounds of the draft.

Bhayshul Tuten, the 4th-rounder, had the fastest 40-yard dash (4.32 seconds) among all RBs at the NFL Combine. Known as a speedy kick returner, Tuten's presence will likely eat into Etienne's workload as the season progresses. Incoming Jaguars' HC, Liam Coen, served only one season as the Buccaneers' OC in 2024. His success not only landed him the head job with the Jaguars, but Owner Shahid Khan agreed to dismiss GM Trent Baalke as a condition of Coen's acceptance. Goggle AI highlights Tampa Bay's record-breaking transformation under Coen this way:

Normally, I’d shy away from saying any member of a RBBC could be undervalued, but with changes coming to the Jaguars’ backfield, Bigsby’s TD potential is very attractive so late in a draft. If Etienne is traded to a team dealing with an injury/suspension issue at the position, Tank gets another upgrade. As one RBBC member falls, another rises. Go Big(sby), or go home.

Overvalued RBs

Quinshon Judkins, Browns
ADP: 8.08, RB 32

Stop drafting him, at any price. The fact that this needs clarification is surprising, so I'll place it here at the top of the "overs." Judkins had a strong season at Ohio State with 1060 rushing yards and 16 total TDs. It was enough for the Cleveland Browns to select him 36th-overall in the draft. Almost a first-rounder, he had fantasy GMs intrigued as a possible Week 1 starter.

Don't just pump the brakes, smash that pedal. He was arrested a month ago (the weekend before rookies were to report) in Fort Lauderdale for battery and domestic violence. He remains unsigned, has missed all of training camp, faces multiple misdemeanor charges and possible team (yeah, right) or league discipline, and has the draft-jinxed Browns scrambling for a veteran free-agent.

If he does put all this behind him, it's going to be four-five weeks until he's "game ready." So about the time he might get a few (hypothetical) snaps, the Browns face the stingy PIT (Week 6) and MIA (Week 7) run defenses. Cleveland has a bye in Week 9, and the rest of their schedule is not RB-friendly. Looking ahead to championship weekend, the Browns face the Steelers again. Still think there's some value hiding in his situation? Pro Football Focus has their offensive line ranked 27th. Even if you live in Cleveland, please draft from the 197 running backs who might make it into your starting lineups this season.

David Montgomery, Lions
ADP: 5.10, RB 22

This is a tough call for me, since I currently live in Michigan. But as Luke Skywalker said, upon seeing the Death Star, "I have a very bad feeling about this." My concerns involve the entirety of the upcoming Detroit Lions season, much more so than Montgomery's abilities. After all, he's been the league's best RB1a since arriving in Detroit. Last season, running mate Jamyr Gibbs finished with the most fantasy points at the position and Montgomery finished 18th. Sonic & Knuckles were the best backfield in the NFL, but I sense a disturbance in the Force.

Propelled by a "Charmin Ultra Soft" schedule and great execution in every phase of the game, the Lions racked-up a league-leading 564 points and 68 offensive touchdowns in 2024. Montgomery had 12 rushing TDs, good enough for 8th among running backs. They finished 15-2, with a 6-0 sweep of the NFC North. However, Detroit's 2025 schedule is the 3rd-toughest, and in weeks 16 and 17, the RB duo contends with fantasy-stingy PIT and MIN.

Montgomery and the 2024 Lions were led by HC Dan Campbell, OC Ben Johnson and DC Aaron Glenn. But the Lions' own success doomed that coaching dream team. As the Windy City Wizard, Johnson will now face-off against the Lions twice a year. Glenn took his considerable S-K-I-L-L-S to the J-E-T-S. New Lions OC John Morton will be calling the plays from the coach's booth, and Kelvin Sheppard moves up from linebacker coach (4 years) to orchestrate the defensive scheme.

Jared Goff has performed brilliantly in four years with the Lions, maybe even over-achieving within the system Ben Johnson designed. In 2024, Goff completed 72.4% of his attempts, and tossed 37 touchdown passes (both career bests). Montgomery caught 36 of 38 targets for 341 yards. The Lions offensive line finished the season top-3, and by some run-blocking metrics, were the best in the business. However, the O-line will see a 40% shake-up in 2025, as Pro Bowl C Frank Ragnow retired in June and RG Kevin Zeitler left in free agency (Titans).

One last bit of bad news for Montgomery, is that Jahmyr Gibbs is expected to play a larger role in 2025. Gibbs is running routes from the receiver position in camp, as the Lions emphasize getting him the ball in space. Gibbs already had 52 receptions and 4 receiving TDs, last season.

The Lions and David Montgomery face a lot of uncertainty as we move toward September. The gauntlet of opponents before their Week 8 bye is @GB, CHI, @BAL, CLE, @CIN, @KC and TB. Coming out of the break, it's MIN, @WAS and @PHI. A 15-win repeat, seems unrealistic. Oddsmakers agree that regression is likely, and set the over/under at 10.5 wins for Detroit. Temper your expectations for the impressive David Montgomery this season.

Kaleb Johnson, Steelers
ADP: 6.10, RB 27

In the interest of full disclosure, I'm a recovering Jaylen Warren fan. But don't worry about bias, I think both Warren and rookie Kaleb Johnson are overvalued in early drafts. Like so many who follow the NFL, I'm having trouble seeing "the plan" in Pittsburgh. Russell Wilson? Aaron Rodgers? George Pickens? Since Big Ben wrapped up his career in 2021, their W/L records have been 9-8, 10-7 and 6-10-1. Mike Florio points out another ugly truth -- the Steelers are currently favored in just 6 of their 17 games in 2025. They finally gave defensive stud T.J. Watt a three-year extension on July 22. Can you imagine the impact on the players (and their fans) if they hadn't?

In 12 games with Iowa last year, Johnson (6'1", 224 pounds) posted 240/1,537/21 rushing, on his way to Big 10 Running Back of the Year honors. That breaks down to 6.4 ypc, 128.1 yards and 1.75 TDs per game. He added 22/188/2 receiving. Great college production doesn't always translate to the NFL, and there are a handful of red flags for this prolific rookie. At the combine, Johnson's 40-yard dash was timed at 4.57, tied for 19th among running backs, and his 10-yard split was 1.62, tied for 24th. His estimated-athleticism score was 64 (27th among the 31 RBs on hand).

NFL analyst Lance Zierlein refers to his "somewhat-upright running style," and adds, "unlikely to be trusted with third-down protection duties." I'm thinking in year 2 or 3, KJ will become a high-value fantasy draft target.

Pittsburgh's 2025 schedule brings serious challenges -- a tough overall schedule (AFC North twice and NFC North) and the 4th or 5th-toughest for running backs. That sets up a lot of passing in the second-half of games, not ideal for an Arthur Smith offense, a 41-year-old (immobile) QB nor a rookie likely on the bench in passing situations. It gets worse. Week 14 has PIT @ BAL and Week 16 has PIT @ DET. I think anticipated game flows give Warren (ADP 8.06, RB 31) an edge in playing time. I suggest swapping their current ADPs, then lowering each 3-4 spots on your RB cheat sheet. Another thought? The Steelers should keep Mason Rudolph loose on the sideline.