Team Fit: Carolina has cycled through Kyle Allen, Teddy Bridgewater,
Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and P.J. Walker since Cam Newton's
last full season as the Panthers' starting quarterback in 2018.
The selection of Young will end the madness. Young possesses a
great football mind and could easily become the best passer in
franchise history in short order, but the reason he is not one
of the most sought-after quarterback prospects in recent memory
is his lack of bulk (204 pounds at the NFL Combine, but played
most of his college career around 10-15 pounds lighter). He is
likely to play in the 190-pound range in the NFL, which will make
him one of the frailest quarterbacks in recent league history.
At least for 2023, he figures to be at the helm of a run-heavy
offense that will try to get by with D.J. Chark, an aging Adam
Thielen and Hayden Hurst as its top pass-catchers after parting
with D.J. Moore.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Young
is unlikely to run much and lacks the kind of supporting cast
he needs right now to be considered as anything more than a middling
QB2 option.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts?
Check back on the website next week for his overall ranking, but
he will be my QB2.
Team Fit: No NFL team could possibly match the comfortable living
Stroud enjoyed at Ohio State behind a solid offensive line with
a plethora of past, present and future first-round draft picks
at receiver. However, Houston is starting to build a solid offensive
line and has some reason to be optimistic at receiver if John Metchie (illness) can hit the ground running and Nico Collins
fulfills his promise reasonably soon. The addition of Dalton Schultz
should also give Stroud some peace of mind. The biggest question
regarding Stroud is if his final college game (348 passing yards,
71 rushing yards before factoring in the four times he was sacked,
four TDs and no interceptions) against a Georgia defense full
of future NFL prospects was him playing out of his mind or a hint
of things to come.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Even if Stroud runs more
than he did in college, it is hard to imagine he will push for
anything more than low-end QB2 production in a passing attack
that will have little choice but to lean heavily on Robert Woods, Collins, Metchie and Schultz.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
on the website next week for his overall ranking, but he will
be my QB3.
Team Fit: Of course the Colts would favor Richardson, who was
the quarterback in this draft most like the one new HC Shane Steichen
just coached in Philadelphia (Jalen Hurts). Make no mistake about
it, however, as Hurts has things a lot better with the Eagles
right now than Richardson does with the Colts. For starters, Hurts
entered the league with plenty of college experience and now has
A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert and a great offensive
line. Richardson has 13 career starts and a mere 455 drop-backs
on his college resume behind what used to be a great offensive
line. The beauty of this pick is that Steichen has proven to be
very good at developing quarterbacks and/or getting the most out
of their unique skill-sets. Even better, the cupboard is not exactly
bare in Indianapolis; Jonathan Taylor is more than capable of
carrying an offense and Michael Pittman Jr. is a serviceable No.
1 receiver at worst.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Richardson is going
to be a tough player to peg in redraft, simply because he is not
close to being ready to be a starting NFL quarterback. However,
his otherworldly athleticism should put him in the conversation
as a low-end QB1 option if/when Gardner Minshew cannot play in
2023.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
on the website next week for his overall ranking, but he will
be my QB1.
Team Fit: Robinson is arguably the most complete running back
prospect to enter the draft in the last five or so years and would
have been a good fit in any kind of offense. It is hard to argue
that his fit in Atlanta is not one of the best, as HC Arthur Smith
has already established he can build a running game around different
types of running backs (Derrick Henry with the Titans, Cordarrelle Patterson with the Falcons in 2021 and Tyler Allgeier with Atlanta
in 2022.) In Robinson, he gets the best all-purpose back he has
ever worked with - he reminds me a lot of Hall of Famer Edgerrin James - and a player that can take advantage of the Falcons' improved
offensive line play more than Allgeier did. The presence of Kyle Pitts and Drake London should only open up running lanes for him
and make his job easier. Robinson also gives the team a dynamic
weapon as a receiver as well.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Contrary to the masses
who believe no running back should be a top-10 selection anymore,
Atlanta was one of the best landing spots imaginable. Allgeier
will remain in the mix somewhat, but Robinson is a strong candidate
to handle 20 touches per game right away. Managers should be prepared
to take him as early as the middle of the first round and consider
him a value if he lasts until the early second round of fantasy
drafts.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts?
The overall RB1 and the No. 1 player in rookie drafts, regardless
of format.
Team Fit: Tell us how you really feel about D'Andre
Swift, Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes. The mere fact that my high-end
comp for Gibbs is a smaller Swift should be an indication that Detroit
loves what Swift could have been had he managed to stay healthy.
The selection of Gibbs suggests the Lions will move on from Swift
shortly, perhaps as soon as this weekend. Assuming that happens,
Gibbs will be the change-of-pace to David
Montgomery and the primary option on long down-and-distance
situations. At 199 pounds, it would be unrealistic to believe Gibbs
is capable of handling much more than a third of the work in a backfield
that accounted for 519 touches in 2021.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Swift finished as the
overall RB21 last season despite missing three games and being
limited in several others. Gibbs will almost certainly play the
same kind of role in Detroit's offense that Swift did, so he could
legitimately push for low-end RB1 upside if the Lions go out of
their way to justify this pick and lean on him in the receiving
game. Considering he will likely cede most of the early-down and
goal-line work to Montgomery, it seems more likely Gibbs will
be a high-ceiling RB2 with a modest weekly floor.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? The overall
RB2 and the No. 2 player in rookie drafts, regardless of format.
Team Fit: With DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett likely to be the co-No.
1 options in the passing game for at least another year or two,
Smith-Njigba feels a bit like a luxury pick - at least for this
season - for an offense that has long prided itself on running
the ball. With that said, the Seahawks also have to look a bit
into the future with Lockett entering his age-31 season and due
to make over $15 million in 2024. While Seattle decides how to
handle that situation, Smith-Njigba figures to fill the slot role
the team hoped Dee Eskridge was drafted to handle two years ago.
It is hard to find fault with the selection, if only because Smith-Njigba
immediately becomes great immediate insurance on a team that has
little at receiver behind Metcalf and Lockett. There is a slight
chance this pick is signaling that the Seahawks are ready to open
things up because they feel very comfortable with Geno Smith moving
forward.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Smith-Njigba may be
the most pro-ready receiver in this class, but some questions
remain if he can be anything more than a great slot option right
away. In an offense where he falls behind Metcalf and Lockett,
opportunities could be somewhat limited if Seattle sticks to its
run-heavy ways and utilizes more 12 personnel (one running back,
two tight ends) than expected. Smith-Njigba should be considered
a WR4/5 option for now.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
on the website next week.
Team Fit: No receiver from this draft class is stealing many (any?)
snaps from Keenan Allen or Mike Williams. With that said, it is
not as if Allen or Williams have been the most durable players
in their pro careers. When everyone is healthy, Johnston figures
to team up with Williams to give the Chargers two dynamic perimeter
receivers that allow Allen to do his thing in the slot. Working
in Johnson's favor is that he is among the best among his position
group in this draft class after the catch. In short, Johnston
should be able to help keep this offense afloat in any game Allen
and/or Williams are sidelined. Also, do not forget about the arrival
of new OC Kellen Moore, who should dial up more vertical shots
than former OC Joe Lombardi. As one of the bigger receivers in
this class, Johnston will have his fair share of opportunities
in contest-catch and/or red zone situations.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Johnston figures to
be among several of the best receiver prospects in this draft
class with decent fantasy upside that will struggle for regular
snaps behind experienced studs. As was the case with Palmer last
year, Johnston will be in the WR3 conversation if Allen or Williams
are injured. If they are both on the field, however, Johnson should
be expected to ride the fantasy bench in most leagues.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
on the website next week.
Team Fit: Baltimore had to rely heavily on Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson to catch Tyler Huntley's passes at the end of last year.
The Ravens have gone to great lengths to avoid that in 2023, adding
Odell Beckham Jr. and Flowers to a receiver room that will also
welcome back Rashod Bateman. In Flowers, Baltimore should be getting
a wideout that may spend the early part of his rookie season playing
behind OBJ, but it should not come as a shock if he ends up pushing
Bateman for snaps rather quickly since the former first-round
pick has seemingly fallen somewhat out of favor in Baltimore.
Under new OC Todd Monken, Flowers should expect to see most of
his snaps initially out of the slot in what figures to be a much
more wide-open offense than it ever was under former OC Greg Roman.
The one issue Flowers may have is Baltimore also needs to find
snaps for Isaiah Likely. It cannot be assumed Flowers will immediately
overtake Bateman or that Baltimore will transition into an offense
that uses three receivers more than half of the time.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Beckham and Bateman present
a serious hurdle for Flowers to overcome, but both players have
also struggled to stay healthy recently. If/when either one or
both veterans get hurt, Flowers could make a case to be in the
WR4 conversation. Until then, he will likely be little more than
modest fantasy bench depth.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
on the website next week.
Team Fit: Minnesota could have put off adding a receiver in favor
of strengthening its defense, but the team instead opted to replace
an aging route-runner (Adam Thielen) with a much younger model.
Addison's 173-pound frame makes him a bit of a dicey proposition
to hold up physically in the NFL, but one of his many upsides
is that he is elusive enough to be great after the catch. His
two years at Pitt probably are probably a better representation
of the complete receiver he can be, whereas his one year at USC
featured him a lot more often on screens. While K.J. Osborn is
certainly no slouch, there is a very good chance he becomes more
of a situational deep threat for the Vikings while Jefferson and
Addison try to dominate the short and intermediate parts of the
field. There is also the small matter of competing for targets
with T.J. Hockenson, which makes it unlikely that Addison will
be a huge factor right away.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Addison may have landed
in the best situation of the first-round receivers to contribute
immediately, although he could also have his hands full trying
to compete with Hockenson, Osborn and Dalvin Cook for targets
- never mind Jefferson. Nevertheless, it would be reasonable to
project him as a potential WR4 in most fantasy leagues.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
on the website next week.
Team Fit: Less than one year after it handed Dawson Knox a four-year,
$52 million extension, Buffalo has found an upgrade and his likely
successor. Immediately, Kincaid's arrival may not signal the end
of Knox's usefulness, as Kincaid is fluid and athletic enough
to become a regular "big slot" for the Bills. This selection
also suggests that Buffalo may no longer want to be in the business
of employing smaller slots after not getting much out of Jamison Crowder or Isaiah McKenzie in 2022. The fact that the Bills gave
up an extra pick to move up two spots to get the Utah product
further hints at a big role right out of the gate while also reaffirming
Buffalo wants to give Gabe Davis another chance to shine.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? The history of getting
solid fantasy production from rookie tight ends is not great.
If there is one tight end in this draft that can be the exception,
it would probably be Kincaid. Fantasy managers should leave the
door open to drafting him in the final rounds later this summer,
but there are enough mouths to feed in Buffalo that it may be
tough to get a low-end TE1 season out of him.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
on the website next week, but he will be my TE1.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today's hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive". Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
