Who Missed the Cut in 2024 (7/10): T. Hill, P. Nacua, D. Moore, A. Brown, D. Samuel, N. Collins, & B. Aiyuk

Most Likely Candidates to Fall from the Top 10 This Year:

Brian Thomas Jr., JAX: I know, I know. This doesn’t make sense, prima facie. Why would last year’s best performing rookie WR, who managed to earn a Top 5 spot at the position despite playing for a bad team and with a worse quarterback half the year, be a threat to majorly regress in his second campaign? Well…can we talk about that worse quarterback for a sec? Because I dug into the splits a bit and noticed something awfully interesting, which then led to this take (picture me explaining it a la Charlie Day in “Conspiracy Theory”).

Here's how Thomas performed when Trevor Lawrence was throwing the passes last year (Weeks 1-9 and part of Week 13): 52 targets, 586 yards, five TDs, and 10.0 FPts/G. Not bad. Now here’s how he performed when part-time QB / rapper Mac Jones was tossing him the pigskin: 81 targets, 696 yards, five TDs, and 11.4 FPts/G. Quite a bit better. OK, so it’s not comparing apples to watermelons, but it’s still a pretty noticeable difference. I’m curious if Thomas’ 2024 numbers were buoyed by a guy who only had eyes for him and is notoriously panicky / lacks escapability?

You don’t have to buy it, but you do have to admit the Jags drafting Travis Hunter probably impacts Thomas’ chances of maintaining that Top 10 status in 2025, as well. It’s still unknown how Coach Coen will choose to deploy Hunter but I’m skeptical the team will truly use him as a hybrid player most of the time. And the Jags didn’t score nearly enough points last season, plain and simple (18.8 per game or 26th overall). I’ll bet this modern-day ironman will tally more starts on offense than defense, which could mean a slightly less successful sophomore season for Thomas.



Terry McLaurin, WAS: This has nothing to do with McLaurin’s contract-related dissatisfaction or his most recent escalation, a request to be traded. It feels like silly season posturing designed to put some pressure on the Commanders, frankly. We’ve seen this movie before. If I had to bet on it today, I predict he suits up Week 1 v. the Giants and is delighted to, once again, team up with budding superstar Jayden Daniels in our nation’s capital. And what a battery the two formed last year when the former Buckeye lived up to his “Scary Terry” moniker with a career best 187.8 total fantasy points and a nifty 11.0 FPts/G.

Even assuming they do in 2025 again, though, the fundamentals underlying McLaurin’s 2024 renaissance were problematic. He was targeted 117 times, which was fewer than he’d been targeted in any of the previous four seasons. He caught 82 passes, just three more than he had in 2023 when he finished as WR33. He compiled 1,096 yards, more than 2023 but fewer than 2022, when he notched a career high of 1,191. What really vaulted Washington’s most valuable wideout into the stratosphere last year were his 13 touchdown receptions, nearly double his previous career high (7 back in 2019, his rookie season). Is that repeatable with Daniels taking the shotgun snaps? Sure. Is it likely? We’ve seen this movie before too.

McLaurin didn’t have much competition for looks in 2024, but he might in 2025. Washed or not, the newly acquired Deebo Samuel could be a big part of Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. So too could rookie Jaylin Lane (2025 fourth-rounder) or Luke McCaffrey (2024 third-rounder). More competition for targets plus an unsustainably high TD reception total = obvious risk for year-over-year regression. Again, that’s not even including his contract brinksmanship risk.

Ladd McConkey, LAC: I ended the RB dropouts piece by reluctantly including one of my favorite fantasy targets, De’Von Achane. Sadly, I have to do the same thing here. McConkey was an absolute STUD for me in 2024, especially considering what I paid for him ($12 at auction…paid the same for Keenan Allen and more for Tank Dell). As Justin Herbert’s only reliable pass shagger, McConkey commanded a solid 112 targets, which he converted into 9.8 FPts/G (82 receptions for 1,194 yards and seven scores). That doesn’t seem like so lofty a bar that he couldn’t do it again, but….

The Chargers are very much created in Coach Jim Harbaugh’s image now. He wanted a ground-first, smashmouth identity and that’s what LAC has become. The franchise just made Rashawn Slater the highest-paid LT in the business and that’s after they added bruiser Najee Harris via free agency and rooking Omarion Hampton via the draft. Building from the line backward seems like a pretty clear sign the Chargers want to run a lot and use Herbie’s golden arm to take shots in play-action. I think it’s gonna work well, especially if….

Someone besides McConkey can step up out on the flank. The Bolts haven’t written off Quentin Johnston just yet, though many of us might have. If he ever learns to catch a football reliably, he’s got all the other tools to shine. One has to think either Tre Harris (second round) or KeAndre Lambert-Smith (fifth round), in addition, can capably replace Josh Palmer and what the Chargers didn’t end up getting from Mike Williams (now retired). Every other meaningful pass catcher last year was a TE. To summarize, I think LAC leans more heavily into the ground attack and becomes more diversified via the air. McConkey’s fantasy value dips accordingly.

Next: Quarterbacks