This is your last chance to make the playoffs… or maybe to keep someone out of the playoffs, who might be capable of doing some damage. Finish the job. Run through the finish line.

Byes: Arizona, Washington

Truths

“Mental toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it’s not the best thing for you.” – Bill Belichick

1) The latest push to make Brock Purdy the favorite to win the NFL MVP (currently up to third at +350) does not mean he’s the best fantasy quarterback.

In fact, he’s still not in the top-five. For the season he ranks eighth (23.0 FPts/G) and even after the great game against the Philadelphia Eagles, he’s seventh over the last three games (25.7). It’s the “disadvantage” of having the best running back in football behind you. Also, he’s probably only the fourth-best player on his team’s offensive side of the ball behind Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel. Personally, I’d like to see the award go to Tyreek Hill.

2) The leg injury to Trevor Lawrence isn’t just a blow to the Jaguars, it’s a huge blow to fantasy owners.

True. While Lawrence ranks just 15th for the season, averaging 21.3 FPts/G, he was getting hot just as the fantasy playoffs were about to start. From Week 11-13, Lawrence ranked second (trailing only Josh Allen) producing 30.2 FPts/G. But it wasn’t just his arm working, it was his legs too. He was second in passing yards over that timeframe (to C.J. Stroud) and second in rushing touchdowns with four. Even if the ankle injury is relatively mild, don’t expect him to be running in the fantasy playoffs.

3) Like everyone else who watched the Monday night football game, I was impressed with Jake Browning’s improvement from his first start.

I was also impressed how quickly head coach Zac Taylor opened up the offense. That showed a lot of confidence even after Browning’s disappointing day in Week 12 versus the Steelers. Browning can be started the next two weekends if needed.

4) For the first time in the last 20 years, two pair of running backs from the same team are top-10 based on FPts/G.

Fact. Both Devon Achane and Raheem Mostert and David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs all rank among the top-10. Only once over those last 20 years did one pair accomplish the feat – Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. You would think this productive a backfield would preclude those teams from passing but that isn’t the case as both teams also roster a top-five receiver Tyreek Hill and Amon-Ra St. Brown).

5) This should be considered Mike Evans’ greatest season.

That’s saying a lot considering he’s cracked 1,000 yards in 10 consecutive seasons. And in only three seasons did he have anything close to a star quarterback (aging Tom Brady’s final three seasons). He’s also caught touchdown passes from; Jameis Winston, Baker Mayfield, Josh McCown, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mike Glennon and Blaine Gabbert. That’s not exactly a who’s who of quarterback excellence. Evans is a first ballot Hall-of-Fame selection in both the real world and the fantasy world.

Lies

“Everyone is entitled to his own opinions, but not his own facts.” – Daniel Patrick Moynihan

1) Defense wins championships.

Tell that the Patriots fans. The Pats have held their last three opponents to 10 points-or-less and lost all three games. The last team to “accomplish” this feat was the 1938 Chicago Cardinals. You still have to score more points than your opponent whether you win 34-31 or 10-9. Of the bottom-12 scoring teams in 2023, only Pittsburgh has a winning record. Maybe Mike Tomlin is a sorcerer.

2) Jaylen Waddle is still a WR1.

Sorry, no. Waddle is at the bottom end of the WR2 list. He’s still producing the yards (71.9 yards over his first 33 games and 67.6 in 2023), but he’s not getting the touchdowns. Don’t blame Tyreek Hill, however, most of Waddle’s touchdowns over his career were from inside the 10-yard line (12-of-18). Blame the improved running game for his fantasy demise. Achane and Mostert have scored 25 touchdowns this season. Hill’s 2023 touchdown receptions, by comparison, average 38.1 yards and only three of his 12 scores are from under 10 yards.

3) Cooper Kupp can return to be the guy you drafted this year.

False. Kupp is obviously not 100% healed from the ankle injury and even if he was completely healthy, Matt Stafford has found more very good pass catchers at which to throw. In his record-breaking season (2021), Kupp saw 191 targets while Stafford’s other options were Van Jefferson (89), Tyler Higbee (85), Robert Woods (69) and Odell Beckham Jr. (48). Of those receivers, only Higbee remains. Rookie sensation Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell have taken their place. When fully healthy Kupp will still be very good, but he’ll never be 145-1945-16 good again. Ever.

4) Jerry Jeudy is capable of being a No.1 receiver.

No, Courtland Sutton is the best receiver on the Broncos and proves it almost every weekend. He’s also the team’s “go-to” guy and the best 50-50 ball receiver on the team. But neither will ever be a WR1 until they have a new quarterback under center. Sean Peyton has figured out how to win with aging Russell Wilson as the starter because he’s a very smart coach, but to get the best out of both these receivers he’s going to need to find a young, strong-armed quarterback. Fortunately, the team has “paid” for Wilson by the end of the 2023 draft and owns a 2024 first-round pick in a year with a lot of quality college quarterbacks becoming available. The dead money hit would be horrible, so cutting Wilson isn’t in the cards, but learning for a year or two isn’t horrible… right Jordan Love? Oregon’s Bo Nix might be a perfect candidate. In dynasty I’m selling on Jeudy, buying on Sutton.

5) Travis Kelce will be the No.1 fantasy tight end when the season is over.

The Magic-8 ball says no. Although he is currently the leader averaging 16.8 FPts/G, he’s only been ninth-best since Week 9 (12.3 FPts/G). It’s become apparent to defensive coordinators that Rashee Rice Justin Watson, Skyy Moore and Marquez Valdes-Scantling can’t beat you. Meanwhile, T.J. Hockenson, George Kittle and Sam LaPorta have been lighting it up. Kittle is on a team with too many mouths to feed and Hockenson will lose some targets with the return of Justin Jefferson making the rookie LaPorta my choice to win this position.