My final three postseason columns will feature my weekly DFS prognostications.
DraftKings
Below you will find my position-by-position projections. Please
note I have included DraftKings' dollar value for each player,
followed by his projected point total. I will not spend a great
deal of time explaining each projection here - only some of the
more notable ones. Each position is sorted by my DraftKings' projected
point total.
Key for quarterbacks, running backs,
receivers and tight ends: P Yds - Passing Yards P TD - Passing Touchdowns INT - Interceptions Ru Yds - Rushing Yards Ru TD - Rushing Touchdowns Rec Yds - Receiving Yards Rec TD - Receiving Touchdowns Rec - Receptions
This is an interesting spot for Jared Goff for multiple reasons.
We can begin with what Goff did to Tampa Bay the first time these
teams played in Week 6: 353 yards and two TDs. We can also consider
that the Bucs held the Lions to 40 rushing yards in that contest,
albeit without Jahmyr Gibbs. Also, consider Goff threw for at least
two scores in six of nine outings at home. Tampa Bay blitzed at
a 40.1 percent clip and generated a 19.7 percent pressure rate during
the regular season. Both numbers are important because Goff is a
completely different quarterback when the pocket is kept clean for
him (25:3 TD-to-INT ratio and 76 percent completion rate - per Pro
Football Focus) than when he is under pressure (6:9, 51). His splits
when he was blitzed and when he was not were similar, so the Bucs'
ability to break through the Lions' very good offensive line on
occasion will be a huge part of their ability to keep this game
close. With that said, I think he is probably the play of the week
at quarterback. He is facing a defense that usually stops the run
well but has surrendered 300-plus passing yards six times. Factor
in Tampa Bay's propensity to blitz, the likelihood the Bucs will
bite hard on play-action and Detroit's ability to protect Goff and
there is a real chance he could beat what he did at Tampa Bay in
October.
At this point of the week, it is almost impossible to predict
how much Josh Allen will be needed. Buffalo relies on him heavily
as it is, but the distinction here is that he has thrown 30 or
fewer passes in four of his team's last five contests. Buffalo
could be without two of its best cornerbacks (Christian Benford
and Taron Johnson) and its top three inside linebackers (Terrel
Bernard, Tyrel Dotson and Baylon Spector) due to injury. While
Kansas City may not have the offensive firepower most expected
this year, it probably has enough to score at least 28 points
for only the fourth time this season if all of the aforementioned
injured Bills are sidelined for this game. I am working under
the assumption at least one player from each group will play this
weekend, but Allen could be asked to throw 40+ times if all of
them miss the game. As such, the final injury report could change
my projection for many of the Bills and Chiefs, perhaps Allen
more than anyone else.
The most pass attempts that Lamar Jackson has in any game this
season is 43. He was at 35 or fewer pass attempts in 14 of 16
games overall. As for his rush attempts, they ranged from 8-12
per game for most of the season. He has not had a rushing score
since Week 7. All of that is to say he has become more of a facilitator
than a focal point of the offense, except for when the Ravens
need him to do something special. This is a game Baltimore should
win, so I expect what has become a typical game from him in 2023:
30 pass attempts and about 10 rush attempts while trying to stay
out of harm's way.
While C.J. Stroud has been unbelievable as a rookie, it may be
a tall order to solve Baltimore's defense. There may not be a
team that uses simulated pressure better (or more often) than
the Ravens right now. That will almost certainly trip up Stroud
a time or two. Matthew Stafford is the only quarterback who has
thrown for more than one touchdown against this defense - in a
game that was remotely competitive anyway - since Week 8. Perhaps
Stroud could force a different outcome this week if Tank Dell
and Noah Brown were still around, but both players are out for
the season.
Jordan Love has not thrown more than 33 passes during Green Bay's
four-game winning streak. I think that will be the plan for this
one as well, at least early. The problem is few defenses are equipped
to handle the 49ers' offensive balance and explosiveness, which
tends to result in San Francisco's opponents throwing more often.
(More on that in the running back section.) Love hasn't faltered
- for the most part - when asked to throw 40 times, but it is
probably safe to say the Packers haven't faced a team like San
Francisco yet this season that can have a great deal of success
rushing four defenders and playing seven in coverage. Love appears
capable of putting an offense on his back, but it might be a bit
much to expect him to carve up a defense that gave up two quarterback
scores in a game once. Quarterbacks posted a 20:22 TD-to-INT ratio
against the Niners in 2023.
Green Bay's run defense has improved markedly during its four-game
winning streak (90 yards during the streak as opposed to 142 before).
However, I don't think it matters all that much when it comes to
facing a Kyle Shanahan run scheme, especially when Christian McCaffrey
is running behind LT Trent Williams. On runs behind left tackle
this season, CMC is averaging 6.4 YPC. On runs to the left side
of the formation in general, he is averaging 5.8 YPC and has scored
10 of his 13 rushing TDs. Outside of "middle right," there
is not a single right side run that he averaged more than he did
from any of his left side runs. Another interesting nugget: CMC's
longest run to the right side was 27 yards. He had at least one
run longer than that running left end, behind left tackle, behind
left guard and up the middle to the left.
Aaron Jones is on a serious roll with four straight games of
at least 20 carries and 111 rushing yards. He has only one game
over that stretch with more than one catch. That needs to change
this week because I do not think the Packers have the interior
line necessary to block 49ers DTs Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave
consistently. (New San Francisco DT Sebastian Joseph-Day should
be a factor as well.) Jones might go over 100 total yards again
this week, but I would be willing to bet around half of it will
be the result of screens and dump-offs. This feeds into perhaps
the biggest strength of their defense - the pass-rush ability
of their front four. With offensive lines already taxed trying
to handle Nick Bosa, Chase Young, Javon Hargrave and Arik Armstead
(who is tentatively expected to play for the first time since
Week 13), the 49ers can typically rush four and play seven in
coverage. Since two of those seven players include stud LBs Fred
Warner and Dre Greenlaw, running backs and short-range tight ends
are usually a non-factor.
The only times Detroit has given up more than 115 yards rushing
this season are the games they faced a great dual-threat quarterback
(Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields). The Buccaneers may try to establish
Rachaad White in this one, but he faces long odds of having any
success against a defense that did not allow any individual running
back to rush for more than 69 yards in 2023. In short, White will
likely need to go crazy in the passing game or he will be a non-factor
in this one. I have little doubt I have projected him at his rushing
ceiling, so it is likely the only way he beats my projection for
him is if he finds the end zone on a short red zone play. With
that said, a touchdown is unlikely. Detroit has permitted one
touchdown to a running back in the last six games.
It feels weird to say Singletary has a great matchup this week,
but he does from a certain point of view. Baltimore allowed an
individual rusher to top 100 yards in its last three games and
four of its last five. That is the (kind of) good news. The bad
news is those backs were Kyren Williams, McCaffrey, De'Von Achane
and Najee Harris (in a meaningless game for the Ravens). Singletary
has his moments, but he is not in the same class as those backs.
Baltimore also cares more about slowing down passing games in
part because it knows the offense is likely to score around 30
points. The Ravens finished in a tie for fifth for most yards
per carry (4.5) during the regular season, so fantasy managers
and DFS players have a leg to stand on if they want to roll the
dice with the Houston back. However, there is questionable upside
with him since Baltimore yielded only eight TDs to running backs
in 2023. Singletary only topped five targets and four catches
once this season, so the odds of him hitting big in DFS without
the touchdown are slim.
For many of the reasons outlined above with his quarterback (Goff),
Amon-Ra St. Brown should be considered the favorite to be the highest-owned
receiver in DFS this week. He is on a serious heater right now with
at least six catches and 90 yards in five straight. Last week's
Wild Card Round win over the Rams snapped his four-game touchdown
streak. Why should he be expected to continue his run this week?
The Bucs' propensity to blitz will open up the middle of the field.
No team left in the tournament runs more "in" routes than
Detroit, which is par for the course in this Sean McVay-inspired
offense. In short, the middle of the field is where St. Brown often
lives. That will usually be the area of the field that Tampa's blitzes
will vacate.
The biggest advantage the Bucs have this week is Mike Evans,
who only caught four of his 10 targets in the Week 6 meeting but
was dealing with a hamstring injury that week. Opponents have
wised up against the Bucs in recent weeks and bracketed Evans
- which partly explains why Chris Godwin's season is ending well.
Lions DC Aaron Glenn - a very good former NFL cornerback - may
follow suit and try to bracket Evans as well, but recent evidence
from teams facing Detroit suggests it may not matter. While the
Lions have faced their share of elite receivers since their Week
9 bye, the worst "lead" receiver performance against
them was 12.1 PPR fantasy points (Courtland Sutton). The second-worst
effort was 16.9 (Chris Olave). Every other lead receiver has scored
at least 20.4 fantasy points. Matchups against obvious alphas
such as D.J. Moore (twice) and CeeDee Lamb that should have resulted
in regular bracket coverage ended up in fantasy efforts of 22.6
(Moore), 26.8 (Moore) and 42.2 (Lamb). While I would not expect
a repeat of what Puka Nacua did last weekend (9-181-1), I would
expect the Bucs to use Evans in much the same way.
It is not a big secret that the 49ers' offense is highly focused
on four players in the passing game. While Brandon Aiyuk is too
good to bet against, one of the Packers' biggest weaknesses on
defense is the middle of the field. As such, I would be very surprised
if the bulk of targets are not headed in the direction of Deebo
Samuel and George Kittle. I expect two or three called runs and
some quick screens - 10 touches for Samuel is not out of the question.
"Bully ball" might be the best way to minimize Green
Bay's offense right now and Samuel should be a big part of that.
One of Josh Reynolds or Jameson Williams is worth playing in
many lineups. Perimeter receivers with deep speed have fared very
well versus the Bucs this season. While DeVonta Smith is more
of a route technician than a speed merchant (he is both, but stay
with me here), he tore up Tampa Bay's secondary last week despite
the fact the Bucs knew he would be the featured attraction. Reynolds
and Williams are not on the same level as Smith (nor will they
draw as many targets), but they also will not attract the same
attention from the defense. I will lean toward Reynolds here given
his consecutive seven-target games, but the only thing regarding
Reynolds and Williams that would surprise me this week is if neither
player had a big day.
I think the Chiefs have shown us for most of the season what
they are offensively and how they have to win now. Run the ball
with Isiah Pacheco, move the chains with Travis Kelce and hope
Rashee Rice can break off a big play or two. Rice appeared to
be the one player Saturday night who was unaffected by the frigid
conditions. He is becoming as much of a priority on offense as
Kelce, even though he may not have earned the same level of trust
(as one would expect). I do not think Buffalo has an answer for
him (7-72-1 on 10 targets in the Week 14 meeting). With that said,
the Bills have enough injuries at linebacker that I would expect
the Chiefs to ride Pacheco early and do as much as they can to
isolate Kelce on A.J. Klein. While I want some exposure to Rice
in case he finds the end zone again, I am not sure he will finish
a top-five receiver this week versus a good defense (if most of
the injured Buffalo defenders can play). Conversely, a beat-up
Bills defense may not require Kansas City to lean on its rookie
receiver as much.
This is a great week to pay up at tight end, which is not something
I believe in doing (or say) very often.
The reason Kelce sits atop the position group this week is simple:
HC Andy Reid is smart enough to figure out that if Buffalo's best
inside linebacker is A.J. Klein, then it might be worth his time
to force the Bills' fourth-best linebacker to cover Kelce.
As I stated above, I would be very surprised if the bulk of targets
are not headed in the direction of Deebo Samuel and George Kittle
this week. As far as how that will play out for Kittle, I expect
a fair amount of run fakes to the left and bootleg passes to the
right to him, especially if the run game is as successful as I
believe it will be. This run-fake-and-boot action - along with
crossing patterns - often does a great job of activating Kittle's
run-after-catch skills. While this season has been a bit of a
mixed bag for Kittle in regards to consistency, I would argue
no player at his position has more upside this week. If this is
a game San Francisco controls from start to finish, my projection
for him is probably a bit too high. If Jordan Love & Co. can
push the 49ers for three-plus quarters, there is a real chance
Kittle is utilized often enough that he goes over 100 yards.
I would be careful investing too much in LaPorta this week. While
he has a wonderful matchup and is coming off a week in which he
played 45 snaps (when it was expected he would not play), there
is a very strong possibility that he is still going to be limited
by his Week 18 knee injury. He would be another example of a player
I want exposure to in DFS, but I might settle for ownership in
maybe 20 percent of my lineups.
Houston's zone defense (which the Texans play around 80 percent
of the time) tends to turn loose tight ends. During the regular
season, Houston gave up a league-high-tying 107 receptions to
the position. They gave up 11 catches more against Cleveland.
I will be investing fairly heavily in Mark Andrews (ankle) as
a result if he is cleared. If not, then Isaiah Likely.
Key for defense/special teams units: PA - Points allowed TD - Defensive/return touchdowns TO - Total turnovers PA Bonus - Points allowed bonus for DraftKings
Defense / Special
Teams
Team
DK $
PA
Sacks
TD
TO
PA Bonus
DK
Lions
$3,300
13
3
2
0
4
11.0
Ravens
$3,500
20
4
2
0
1
9.0
Bills
$2,800
23
2
2
0
0
6.0
Chiefs
$2,700
27
3
1
0
0
5.0
49ers
$3,400
21
3
1
0
0
5.0
Buccaneers
$2,500
31
2
1
0
-1
3.0
Texans
$2,900
30
3
0
0
-1
2.0
Packers
$2,600
34
3
0
0
-1
2.0
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
