The QB pool is deep heading into this season, with only three QBs on my own Do Not Draft list. Russell Wilson was always fun to watch…in Seattle. Last year, he finished QB24 in PIT, and the surrounding talent is weaker with the Giants (ESPN Pass-Block-Win Rate ranked 26th). Two games against PHI (in the first 8) don’t help, and his HC could be gone after a Week-12 loss in Detroit. Anthony Richardson threw 8 TDs and 12 INTs in his 11 games last season. The shoulder injury kept him out of OTAs this spring, QB Daniel Jones got $14 million to move to Indiana for the year, and Richardson dropped to QB2 on the July depth chart. Cam Ward went #1 overall to the Titans. Therein lies the problem. Thirty-year-old Calvin Ridley can’t be everywhere and Tyler Lockett (33 in September) no longer scares defensive coordinators. The Titans O-line seems to “watch and wait,” and I encourage you to do the same.

Undervalued QBs

J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings
ADP: 12.06, QB 16

I get it, we don’t know what to expect. But think back one year, when nobody predicted the Vikings with Sam Darnold could go 14-3. They won their first five games, then added a nine-game winning streak.

McCarthy (torn meniscus in his rookie preseason) watched Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison finish WR2 and WR21 in 2024. RB Aaron Jones had 51 receptions and 7-total TDs for an RB12 finish, and TE T.J. Hockenson is now healthy, and projected as a top-9 TE in 2025. HC Kevin O’Connell and OC Wes Phillips deserve a lot of credit, as do the Vikings offensive linemen, ranked 2nd in Pass-Block-Win Rate 2024 per ESPN. McCarthy is ranked anywhere from QB-14 to QB-22 as August approaches. Surrounded by studs, I see him closer to 16th than 22nd.

Drake Maye, New England Patriots
ADP: 12.08, QB 17

“Making the most of what he has to work with, since 2024.”

After seeing what Maye could do in just 10 starts, the Patriots spent the offseason improving the pieces around him. New HC Mike Vrabel (3) and OC Josh McDaniels (6) have a combined 9 Super Bowl rings, and were hired following the dismissal of one-and-done HC Jerod Mayo and OC Alex Van Pelt. Picking 4th-overall in the NFL draft, New England selected 6’6” OT Will Campbell, who started all 38 games of his LSU career, giving up just 5 sacks.

The Patriots selected Ohio State’s RB TreVeyon Henderson 38th-overall, who adds his 77- career receptions for 853 yards and 6 touchdowns to create a three-headed, pass-catching machine with current-RB1 Rhamondre Stevenson and 3rd-down specialist Antonio Gibson. No slouch when running the football, Henderson posted 590/3,761 (6.37ypc) rushing during his collegiate career, with an additional 42 touchdowns! Drafting WR Kyle Williams in the 3rd-round brings additional firepower to pad Maye’s fantasy stats.

Stefon Diggs’ recovery from his 2024 torn ACL in Houston satisfied the New England brass enough to sign him to a 3-year contract, worth up to $69 million. Diggs is already practicing at camp. Did I mention that Maye is likely to rush for 25+ yds/game, while adding 3-4 rushing TDs during the season? All arrows are pointing up for 2025, so a jump from 17.5 to 20 FPts/game seems possible.

Justin Fields, New York Jets
ADP: 10.09, QB 13

There are 3 rules when drafting “fantasy-friendly” Fields. First, never watch his games. Second, remember there are no style points in fantasy. Finally, rushing TDs are worth the full 6 points.

Fields started six games for Pittsburgh in 2024 and averaged 21.4 Fpts/game. His five passing TDs won’t thrill any fantasy GM (see Rule No.1), but 38.5 rushing yds/game with 5 more TDs rushing can make it payoff, if drafting your QB in the 10th round. Landing Fields as your QB2 in Best Ball formats is even better.

I’m impressed with his continued development as a passer, despite starting his NFL career with the dysfunctional Bears, then serving as a limited starter last season for PIT. In fact, his completion percentage continues to rise every year.

Fields’ salary plus roster bonus with the Steelers was just over $3 million in 2024. New HC Aaron Glenn and the front office of the Jets “rounded it up” to $40 million for 2 years! Stud WR1 Garrett Wilson just signed a 4-year extension worth $130 million ($90 million guaranteed). Follow the money.

Overvalued QBs

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
ADP: 7.04, QB8

Bo knows football. Along with Jayden Daniels (QB5), Nix (QB8) exceeded rookie-expectations in 2024, propelling many of our fantasy squads to league titles. Meanwhile, fellow rookie QBs Caleb Williams (QB16), Bryce Young (QB21) and Drake Maye (QB22) had more typical results over the course of their first year.

Including Nix here doesn’t mean he’ll suffer a serious slump, but I hate to overpay at quarterback. He’s going as high as QB7 in some July drafts, and that seems ripe for disappointment. Denver has a tough schedule to negotiate during the fantasy regular season. TE Evan Engram should provide a solid option at TE, but turns 31-years old opening week, and was limited to just nine games last year because of injury.

Some “uneven” 2024 performances by the Broncos QB raise legitimate concerns. Nix posted five games without a passing TD and three without any TDs. Week 18 is the game that gives me pause. A home blowout (38-0) against the Chiefs backups, significantly boosted his overall stats. Denver held possession for nearly 42 minutes, running 72 offensive plays to Kansas City’s 33. The Chiefs ended the game with 98 total yards, while Nix went off for 36.8 fantasy points, almost 10% of his total for the season. The following week was a wildcard game at Buffalo, and his passing numbers were anemic at 13/22 (59.1%) for 144 yds and a TD.

Don’t nix Bo completely, but a QB8 repeat could prove difficult. PLAYOFF TIP: If somehow an owner grows frustrated with Nix (say, after Week 9 at Houston) trade for him and his QB-friendly playoff schedule!

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
ADP: 10.10, QB14

Dallas is trying to address last season’s O-line issues by adding 3 veterans with occasional starting experience, and drafting Alabama guard, Tyler Booker, 12th overall. New HC Brian Schottenheimer will try to establish the run with unfamiliar linemen and a fresh trio of RBs -- Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders, and 5th-rounder Jaydon Blue (214-career carries at Texas).

The offensive priority is to protect rehabbing-QB Dak Prescott. His 2024 season ended in Week 9, with a serious (non-contact) hamstring injury. November surgery reattached the tendon to the bone. His rehab is on schedule and he is participating at training camp.

Prescott turns 32-years old today (7/29), and WR George Pickens is a great birthday present. But how many games can we expect from Dak? I’m surprised by the number of games he (hasn’t) played over the last five years. He’s averaged 11.6 games/season! Since the start of 2020, Prescott has been available for only 68% of games. He does better in odd-numbered years, but can’t score fantasy points from the blue tent or the VIP suite.

Before the injury, he struggled to a 64.7 completion percentage and a TD/INT ratio of 11/8, scoring 4.6 fewer fantasy points per game than 2023. It was a painful season for Prescott and his fantasy owners. I might consider adding him as my QB2 (in a QBBC structure), but it needs to be at true “scratch-and-dent” savings. I’m not as worried about his playing poorly, as I am about his playing enough. HEADS UP: Matching him with Burrow or Mahomes in 2025 creates a bye overlap in Week 10.

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
APD: 14.07, QB 20

Big fantasy points can be found on bad, real-world teams. Rookie WR Malik Nabers, on the 3-14 New York Giants, was a perfect example. Playing in just 15 games last season, Nabers posted 170/109/1204/7, on his way to a WR6 finish. Rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. finished the season a notch better at WR5, running routes for the inept Jaguars (4-13). But there is a big difference between a bad team, and a team seemingly on the verge of collapse. It’s bold to forecast a QB, ranked near the bottom of QB2s, as overvalued. It’s even more daring to predict the death-spiral of a team during their upcoming season. Yet, here we are.

Certainly, Tagovailoa’s own neurological concerns top this list. I won’t dwell on his four documented concussions since age 21, or the likelihood of another. HC Mike McDaniel’s press conferences may be legendary, but his record in Miami at 28-23 (0-2 in playoff games) is not. The Dolphins are just 3-15 during his tenure, when facing teams that have a winning record. According to the Sporting News, Miami went 0-5 against .500 teams last season. Now that’s a coaching hot seat! Former TE Jonnu Smith took his game to Pittsburgh, after Miami’s front office remained unimpressed by his career-best season (111/88/884/8). It was an unpleasant divorce. Pro-Bowl LT Terron Armstead has retired from the NFL, and his apparent successor, Patrick Paul, has just three NFL starts at the tender age of 23. In April, draft-analyst Mel Kiper Jr. was insisting Miami draft a LT because of the critical need to protect Tua. Instead, they drafted 3 DTs.

Tua’s WR1, Tyreek Hill, is perpetually under investigation for off-field issues. In college, it was a domestic-violence charge. During his time with the Chiefs, it was alleged abuse (broken arm) of his 3-year-old child. In 2023 he was involved in an apparent assault at a Miami marina, but charges did not result (undisclosed settlement). During 2024, he was sued by an Instagram model who suffered a broken leg during some football “activities” at his home. On opening day of the 2024 season, Hill was cited/detained/released for reckless driving and speeding on his way to the game. Hill quit on his teammates in Week 18, taking a seat on the bench (“I’m out, bruh…”) in the 3rd quarter of a frozen Kansas City reunion. Way to disrespect both of your teams with one tantrum! Don’t forget, he also had ligament-repair surgeries on his wrist this offseason. I’d suggest you “Dodge, duck, dip, dive and dodge” Tua’s Dolphins Drama.