Byes: Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, Pittsburgh

Truths

“Beauty often seduces us on the road to find the truth.” – David Shore

1) Some offenses have dramatically changed since last season, and with it, the value of players.

True. We must adapt to changing times. Examples; The Los Angeles Rams have become a pass-first team behind the superb trio of Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Stafford is on the way to his best season since 2021 and Kyren Williams' fantasy production is down 20-percent. Meanwhile, the Patriots, despite two solid running backs in Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson, have become a passing team behind second-year starter Drake Maye, who is on a 4,200-yard pace with his corresponding fantasy production up 41-percent. Fantasy owners must adjust or die.

2) The Cincinnati Bengals are a disaster without Joe Burrow.

Fact. Even with Burrow, they struggled to be in the playoff race, but the last two games with Jake Browning at the helm have been an utter disaster. It's certainly not all Browning's fault, but that doesn't matter. The fantasy values for superstar Ja'Marr Chase along with Tee Higgins and Chase Brown have been destroyed with no end in sight. It's unlikely to get better anytime soon with Detroit, Green Bay and Pittsburgh next up on the schedule.

3) Unlike the Bengals, when Brock Purdy went down to a shoulder injury, the San Francisco 49ers thrived.

Mac Jones may not be a star, but under Kyle Shanahan's tutelage, the 49ers kept rolling in Week 2 and Week 3 without their starter. Jones was almost as "fantasy-worthy" as Purdy producing two wins and a 22.3 FPts/G average. Purdy's two-game average this season is a little higher (24.2) but he averaged 22.6 from 2023-24. Is the difference between Cincinnati and San Francisco quarterback talent... or coaching talent?

4) Geno Smith will not be a QB1 in 2025.

Smith's interception rate is the worst since his first two disastrous years with the New York Jets in 2013-14. Six touchdown passes against seven interceptions through four games in 2025 after a 15 interception 2024 does not bode well for the rest of the season. Smith currently ranks 21st in fantasy production averaging 19.5 FPts/G. That's middle-of QB2 territory.

5) It was a nice win for Jaxson Dart and the Giants, but don't go spending all your FAAB on the rookie.

In his first start, Dart threw for 111 yards. He took some big hits. Dart did hit Theo Johnson for a touchdown and rushed for another score, but without Malik Nabers, Dart is not going to win you a fantasy title. At least not this season. Three of his next four games are against playoff teams (Denver and Philadelphia twice) and his top remaining receivers are; Wan'Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton and tight end Johnson. Save your FAAB money for later.

Lies

“Repetition does not transform a lie into the truth.” – Franklin D. Roosevelt.

1) “If you’re not welcomed, not listened to, quietly withdraw. Don’t make a scene. Shrug your shoulders and be on your way.” – A.J. Brown

No, I don't believe A.J. Brown wants to leave the Philadelphia Eagles. But he is frustrated by his lack of contributions in more than one game this season. Will he pull a "Terrell Owens" and do sit ups in his driveway and feud with his quarterback? No. Will he be a 1,200-yard receiver for fantasy owners in 2025? Also, no. Is he exasperated? Yes. Will the Eagles trade him? No. Should you trade him? I think yes, if you can get close to fair market value. He's likely to be more frustrated after Week 5 after facing Patrick Surtain II.

2) Cooper Rush can keep the Ravens' offense rolling.

False. The Ravens rank third in points this season, 32.8 ppg, with Lamar Jackson at the controls. But with Rush under center, there is no threat of the fake handoff to Derrick Henry which makes both runner and quarterback effective. Additionally, Rush doesn't have the arm Jackson possesses. The deep threat of Rashod Bateman is negated and defenses will crowd the mid- and short-range to stop Zay Flowers crossing patterns, and the two tight ends. The Ravens' next two games are against quality defenses, who get after immobile quarterbacks (Houston, Los Angeles Rams). Hurry back Lamar.

3) Rookie Emeka Egbuka can't possibly keep up his current top-10 pace.

I don't see why not. He's currently ranked ninth, averaging 7.75 targets, 4.5 receptions, 70.5 yards and one touchdown catch-per-game. Mike Evans has an injured hamstring which cost him almost a month due to a similar injury last season, Chris Godwin has just returned to action and "EE" is the most pro-ready wideout to come out of college this season. A number of last year's top-10 wideouts (by FPts/G) are injured and have opened up the opportunity for Egbuka. Nabers is gone for the season, CeeDee Lamb, like Evans will miss a month, A.J. Brown and Brian Thomas Jr. are struggling to find themselves and both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins look anything but top-10 receivers at the moment.

4) Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are back.

Not quite, but getting better. Everyone scores on the Ravens, so that's not a great measuring stick. The once feared Baltimore defense, the team of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, ranks dead last in points allowed (33.3 ppg), 29th in fantasy QB points allowed, 27th in WR fantasy points allowed, and 32nd in RB fantasy points allowed. But the return of Xavier Worthy was an obvious upgrade in the passing offense and in two weeks Rashee Rice returns to the lineup. Now, if they can just get the running game going (Isiah Pacheco 6.8 FPts/G and Kareem Hunt 6.5) anything will be possible.

5) Darren Waller's triumphant return to the NFL is repeatable.

No, but he could be a viable low-end fantasy option as the No.2 target for Tua Tagovailoa behind Jaylen Waddle now that Tyreek Hill (21-265-1) is done for the season (knee). In his first game since 2023 and returning from retirement, Waller caught three of four targets for 27 yards and two touchdowns worth 17.7 points. Malik Washington (4% rostered) is the most likely beneficiary of the Hill injury and could be worth claiming off the waiver wire, but Waller (8% rostered) will have some value too.