Disappointment, elation, injuries and surprise production…
Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season had all of these.
Truths
Let’s
go back to my origins. I used these in September of 2015 and they
are still true.
“The truth may not lead you to where you thought you
were going, but it will always lead you somewhere better.”
– Source unknown
1) No, Aaron Rodgers will not throw four touchdowns every week
and what would be a record 68 for the season. Also, Josh Allen
will not throw for 6,698 yards in 2025. OK, maybe on Allen.
Additionally, Ja'Marr
Chase will NOT finish the season with 34-442-0 statistics. I
guarantee this. It's what I tell you every season after the first
weekend of football. It's my way of saying do not make rash decisions
based on one game's worth of data. Whether your guy was great or
horrible... show patience.
2) On the other hand, if you think one of your guys played way
over his head and you can sell high... absolutely do it.
If someone thinks Quentin Johnston (5-79-2) suddenly became elite
overnight (24.9 fantasy points) and wants to part with far too
much for the right to start the third-best receiver on the Chargers'
roster, let him.
3) Do recognize fundamental changes in the landscape.
If you need immediate help at the wide receiver position, note
the usage for a low-ADP wideout like Marquise Brown (16 targets).
For the next few weeks, he should be the Chiefs No.1 wideout with
Xavier Worthy dealing with a dislocated shoulder and Rashee Rice
on suspension for five more games. (More about Brown later).
4) In Week 1, usage is usually more important than end results.
The Browns' Dylan Sampson only rushed for 29 yards, but
he doubled the starter's attempts (Jerome Ford) by 12-6.
Twenty-none yards is ugly (2.4 ypc), but his usage rate would
make me want to roster him. Also, he is apparently the pass-catcher
out of the backfield (eight targets, eight receptions, 64 receiving
yards), making him the guy to have. He's only rostered in
46% of all leagues.
5) We got some answers to our running back workload questions.
Lies
“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
- Benjamin Disraeli (1804-1881) British politician and authoru
1) “He’s rehabbing and working his shoulder and
we’ll just, see where it goes… day-by-day,”
- Chiefs’ HC Andy Reid.
This is just word salad...a.k.a. it's a "lie."
Yes, Xavier Worthy is rehabbing. And yes, we are all day-to-day.
But shoulder separations are a 1-4 week injury, if mild, and 2-4
months on the sidelines if it requires surgery. This is "coach
speak" for "I don't want to tell my next opponent,
the Eagles, that they don't have to spend time game-planning
on how to defend Mr. Worthy." You, as an astute fantasy
owner, should be thinking Hollywood Brown first (26% rostered)
and JuJu Smith-Schuster second (1%).
2) James Cook scored a touchdown in Week 1 and I'm thinking
of raising his rushing touchdown expectations.
No, sorry. Last year's touchdown total was an anomaly for
Cook (18). Things have already changed despite his two-yard touchdown
run in Week 1. Last season, Cook "out-rushed" quarterback
Josh Allen from inside the 5-yard line 13 times to 10 times. Already
in Week 1, Allen tried to score five times from inside the 5-yard
line versus just twice for Cook. This could be an opportunity
to "sell high" to another team owner that he can do
it again in 2025 (16 rushing touchdowns) despite knowing the underlying
factors having changed against him.
3) Travis Etienne looked like the guy he was in 2023, I need
to trade for him immediately.
Patience, grasshopper. Remember who he was running against -
Carolina. In 2024, the Panthers allowed the most fantasy points
to opposing running backs. They allowed 30.2 FPts/G which was
almost 13% worse than the second-worst rushing defense (Jacksonville).
They led 20-3 at halftime. He rushed seven times in the first
half and nine times after the break. He had one rush for 71 yards
and 15 rushes for 72 yards (4.8 ypc). If he's still racking
up points after the Broncos game in Week 3, then by all means
go for it. On the other hand, if Etienne is already on your roster,
you might be able to get an elite player in return from an impatient
owner.
4) Daniel Jones will solve my weak quarterback room (6% rostered)
and help take pressure off of Jonathan Taylor.
Maybe, but maybe not. The 32.2 fantasy points he scored was the
most he had put up since Week 2 of 2023. He threw the ball exceptionally
well (22-of-29) for 272 yards and a score, but more importantly
rushed for two touchdowns. Both touchdowns runs were from 1-yard
and should be concerning to those who spent top assets on Taylor.
Taylor saw 21 touches, but didn't get into the end zone.
That's a red flag. Over the past two seasons, when Taylor
saw at least 21 touches, he scored 73% of the time. It's
worth watching to see if Jones' presence hurts Taylor's
touchdown productivity.
5) If a quarterback throws the ball a lot, I want to roster
him based on his potential for a big day.
False. Spencer Rattler threw the ball a Week 1-high 46 times...
and finished 26th in quarterback fantasy points. Drake Maye also
threw 46 passes in Week 1 and finished 17th in fantasy points.
Lamar Jackson (19 times), Justin Fields (22 times) and Jalen Hurts
(23 times) all finished in the top-10 while throwing the ball
sparingly. Of the nine quarterbacks who rushed for at least one
touchdown, eight finished in the top-10 among quarterbacks. Only
J.J. McCarthy finished outside the top-10 and he finished 12th.
Running quarterbacks are still a cheat code.
