Other than finding a sleeper in the 20th round, the most important
question this off-season is not whether to draft Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. It’s also not whether you draft Ja’Marr Chase
or Justin Jefferson. No, those picks will be good no matter which
player you choose. The question everyone needs to know the answer
to before their draft is; “Which Christian McCaffrey will
show up in 2025?”
Why is this the most important question?
Because a healthy McCaffrey is almost a guarantee of a top-three
fantasy running back. But an injured “CMC,” at the
cost of a first-round selection, can destroy your hopes of a championship
trophy right from the start.
So let’s get to analyzing what to do about McCaffrey.
As you can see in the first table, when he’s good…
he’s very, very good. His 2019 and the start of the 2020
season rank among the best ever. Better than the best Todd Gurley
seasons. In fact, they were almost as good as the famous 2006
season of LaDainian Tomlinson when The Chargers’ great rushed
for 1,815 yards, caught 56 balls, scored 31 times and even threw
two touchdown passes for a 29.6 FPts/G average. Yes, as Tony the
Tiger would say - when CMC is good… he’s Grrrrreat!
Christian McCaffrey: 2017-2024
Year
Tm
Gms
Ru
Att
Ru
Yds
Ru
TDs
Tgts
Rec
Rec
Yds
Rec
TDs
FPts/G
Rk
2017
CAR
16
117
435
2
113
80
651
5
14.4
15
2018
CAR
16
219
1,098
7
124
107
867
6
23.8
3
2019
CAR
16
287
1,387
15
142
116
1,005
4
29.3
1
2020
CAR
3
59
225
5
19
17
149
1
30.1
1
2021
CAR
7
99
442
1
41
37
343
1
18.2
5
2022
SF
17
244
1,139
8
108
85
741
5
20.6
2
2023
SF
16
272
1,459
14
83
67
564
7
24.7
1
2024
SF
4
50
202
0
19
15
146
0
12.5
25
But there is the annoying injury question. After playing in his
first 48 games without incident, he went through two frustrating
years where he played just 10 of 33 games (2020-21).
In 2020, he started the season right where he left off, producing
90.3 fantasy points in the first three games. Then disaster struck
and CMC didn’t play another game that season due to multiple injuries.
Still, fantasy owners assumed it was a one-time fluke issue and
the Panthers’ running back was still a top selection on Draft
Day 2021. He started off strong, averaging 26.2 against the Jets
and Saints, but again lightning struck early in Week 3. He wouldn’t
play until Week 9, averaged 25.5 FPts/G in Weeks 10 and 11 and
then in Week 12 was once again back on the sidelines and didn’t
play another down.
First let’s look at the type of injuries he suffered. Were they
possibly career-ending? Did they require major surgery? Does he
suffer the same injury over and over again? The answers are; no,
no and no.
In 2020 he suffered a right ankle sprain, a right shoulder AC
joint sprain and a thigh injury. No surgeries were needed. The
following season it was a right hamstring injury and a left ankle
injury. Again, no surgery needed and none was a repeat injury.
Traded to San Francisco in the middle of 2022, McCaffrey played
33 of 34 games over the next two seasons and played well, though
not to the historic levels he had produced in 2019. He was on
a better team with the 49ers, so much more offensive talent and
they didn’t need him to be the “one-man band” he was in Carolina.
They had Deebo
Samuel and Brandon
Aiyuk at wideout and George
Kittle at tight end. Slightly better than in Carolina where
the offensive coordinator’s options were; D.J.
Moore, Curtis
Samuel and an aging Greg Olsen.
But here we are again, in the summer of 2025, wondering if a now
29-year-old McCaffrey can return from more injuries. This time
it was eight games to start the season due to Achilles tendonitis
and five games with a knee injury. The Achilles injury is the
worrisome one. Guys now return from knee injuries in less than
a year, but Achilles injuries can be life-changing. Sometimes
they come back, and sometimes they come back but never at the
same production level. Some recent Achilles injuries to Arian
Foster, James
Robinson, Tarik Cohen, Marlon
Mack and Cam
Akers haven’t turned out particularly well, though they had
tears not tendonitis.
In late April, McCaffrey spoke to reporters and said he was “feeling
good” and has no “health-related restrictions” heading into this
summer’s training camp.
But can we trust those words? He and the 49ers hid the severity
of his Achilles injury last pre-season and let fantasy owners
unknowingly draft an injured player with a top-three pick. I’m
the cynical type and after being burned once, I’m loath to trust
their words with blind faith.
They are going to have to show me he can play before I use a top-three
pick on him. Because if he’s healthy, he still is a top-three
pick. Maybe not Saquon
Barkley or Jahmyr
Gibbs good, but 22 FPts/G (what he averaged in 2022-23) would
still be top-three worthy.
However, he’s going to have to at least play a few downs in pre-season.
Or look good on the field in practice and not sit on the sidelines
and tell me he’s “fine.” I’m going to need to see it with my own
eyes. Because if I draft him early in the first round, the best
he can do, his ceiling is, “as expected.”
On the other hand, his July ADP is 11.8 and choosing him at the
end of the first round or early second round leaves some wiggle
room. I’m no longer comparing him to Saquon and Jahmyr, I’m comparing
him to an untested rookie, Ashton
Jeanty (ADP 12.9) and De’Von Achane (14.7) if I want a running
back. Or Brian
Thomas Jr. (ADP 12.3) or Drake
London (14.1) if I want an available receiver. Comparing these
options, I can easily make the recommendation that a healthy CMC
is better than those four choices.
Below, in the second table, are the four players being selected
right behind McCaffrey. You can make the case that McCaffrey is
better than all of them. Because in 2025, the 49ers’ offense needs
him more than ever. Deebo is gone (Washington). Aiyuk (knee) probably
won’t be back until a month into the season. CMC’s backup, Isaac
Guerendo, had a couple of decent games last season, but is
still basically untested. Kittle will be 32-years-old in October.
Yes, a healthy McCaffrey should be a huge bargain at ADP 11.8.
However, I’m not drafting him until he SHOWS me he is healthy…
not just tells me. If he and the team hide him all pre-season,
I’m not drafting him.
Bottom line - If you know he starts the season healthy, there
is no question, you choose him at his current ADP.