A few years ago, I decided to use the final Blitz of the season
to give fantasy managers a sounding board for their toughest lineup
decisions entering their league's fantasy championship game. Given
how well the idea was received initially, it only made sense to
extend it to all three fantasy playoff weeks.
Below are five reader questions (submitted via X or the FFT forum)
and my answers. Any special scoring rules will also appear in
the question or immediately thereafter.
Showboat: (TD league with bonuses for 100 yards) Need four:
Devin Neal (vs. CAR), Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. BUF), Emeka Egbuka
(vs. ATL), Terry McLaurin (@ NYG), Courtland Sutton (vs. GB),
Harold Fannin (@ CHI) and Jake Ferguson (vs. MIN)
The short answer: McLaurin, Egbuka, Sutton and Fannin.
My rationale: As luck would have it, I have
five of the seven aforementioned players projected to score touchdowns
this week. I cannot say the same about the likelihood of any of
them putting up 100 yards, however. In general, the best bets
for 100 total yards each week are featured running backs who are
highly involved in the passing game. However, I don't think that
is what this question is asking. (I think the question is asking
if it is 100 yards rushing OR receiving, not a combination of
the two.)
Neal is the closest thing we have to a featured back in this
question, but I don't think he gets all that close to 100 total
yards - much less 100 rushing or receiving yards. Further consider
that the Saints' running back room has only three touchdowns for
the season. Even though I think Neal will score again in Week
15, I think he is the worst bet of the bunch to do so.
Stevenson has the best matchup on paper in theory, but he has
only come close to topping 100 yards as a rusher or a receiver
twice this season, and both scenarios were a bit fluky. He has
only scored a touchdown in two games and is now arguably the 1B
back - at best - in this backfield, which was not the case when
he was the lead back earlier in the season and somewhat viable
as a flex option.
As a heavy investor in Egbuka stock this season, the last two
months have not been nearly as much fun as the first five weeks
of the season. His volume has been great for most of his slump,
but the efficiency that was his calling card early has completely
fallen off a cliff. Baker Mayfield has been "off" when
targeting Egbuka, who has not helped his cause with drops. Bad
luck has been a part of it, as he dropped a pass that would have
gone for a 23-yard score last week. Nevertheless, I expect the
return of Mike Evans to return things to their natural state,
as it should mean Egbuka plays more "Z" and less "X"
receiver, which is a better fit for his skill set. It should also
mean the rookie sees much more of Mike Hughes this week and much
less of A.J. Terrell. When that happened in Week 1 - when Evans
was still healthy - Egbuka caught four passes for 67 yards and
two touchdowns. Egbuka also lines up about a third of the time
in the slot. Atlanta's primary slot corner is now Dee Alford,
who has allowed 18 catches on 22 targets for 126 yards and a touchdown
in his coverage in the last three games.
McLaurin is arguably the best bet to eclipse 100 yards and score
a touchdown this week given his matchup against a Giants defense
that has given up six touchdowns to receivers over the last four
games and 2,152 yards to the position on the season - the fourth-highest
mark in the league. The caveat is that Marcus Mariota is his quarterback
now - as opposed to Jayden Daniels - and the offense looked pitiful
last week versus the Vikings. With that said, Minnesota's defense
is significantly better and more complex than New York's.
Sutton's midseason swoon has an easy explanation: defenses were
content in letting Troy Franklin try to beat them, so they spent
much of their time making sure Sutton didn't. Pat Bryant started
earning the trust of the coaching staff about a month ago and
is a better blocker than Franklin, which is kind of a big deal
in a Sean Payton offense. Thus, Sutton and Bryant are seeing the
field a lot on early downs since the Week 12 bye, which has resulted
in Franklin's two lowest snap counts of the season and Sutton
being the first read in the progression more often - as was typically
the case throughout the first half of the year. Keep an eye on
Bryant's practice participation on Friday, however. If he is ruled
out, that could mean a turn for the worse for Sutton.
We still may not know much about Shedeur Sanders yet, but one
thing is clear after three starts: he is a fan of Fannin. Sanders
has thrown 87 passes in his starts, 22 of which have been thrown
in the direction of Fannin - good for a target share of 25 percent.
That is Brock Bowers and Trey McBride territory. It also happened
with David Njoku playing. There is a good chance the knee injury
that Njoku suffered in Week 14 could sideline him for at least
this game. This week's opponent (Chicago) has not faced much in
the way of good tight ends lately, but the two most athletic ones
the Bears have seen since their Week 5 bye have each had their
way against them (Juwan Johnson went for 5-79-1 on seven targets
in Week 7 and Theo Johnson posted a 7-75-0 line in Week 10). Neither
one of those tight ends is the No. 1 option on their respective
teams. Fannin is. If Njoku is ruled out later in the week, Fannin
will be my top-ranked tight end for the week.
My position on Ferguson will vary based on CeeDee Lamb's health.
If Lamb clears the concussion protocol in time to play in Week
15, I am viewing Ferguson as a low-end TE1 for the week. If Lamb
sits, I would likely start him ahead of Sutton since the likelihood
of him finding the end zone increases dramatically without Lamb
around.
Nomad99: (Half-PPR) Need two for the rest of the season: Stefon
Diggs, Tetairoa McMillan, Christian Watson, Darius Slayton, Ricky
Pearsall and Kenneth Gainwell?
The short answer: McMillan and Gainwell in Week 15. After that,
I feel the best about McMillan and Watson moving forward.
My rationale: I feel comfortable with eliminating
Diggs, Slayton and Pearsall from the conversation immediately.
Diggs has had his moments, but his week-to-week involvement has
been nothing like what I expected to be this summer. All three
of his biggest games have come in tougher matchups (for receivers),
which makes him almost impossible to predict. He only has three
touchdowns as the clear alpha in this passing game, which means
his upside is questionable as well. Slayton has delivered three
WR3-level performances over his last four outings, but I think
that is his ceiling in what appears to be a run-heavy offense
now. If Wan'Dale
Robinson was not around pushing for 10 targets per game, then
maybe. Pearsall is a complete wild card at this point. Despite
the amount of time he has missed in two NFL seasons, we have seen
multiple examples of him stepping up as a potential alpha. With
that said, he has earned no more than four targets in any of the
three games he has played since returning from a knee injury.
It is probably safe to say Christian
McCaffrey, George
Kittle and Jauan
Jennings are higher on Kyle Shanahan's target priority list.
A bet for McMillan is a bet that his talent is starting to shine
through and will overcome his less-than-ideal situation. A bet
against McMillan is one that acknowledges that a low-volume passing
game led by Bryce Young will eventually result in a fantasy playoff
dud - like the ones he could have had over the last two weeks
had he not scored a touchdown in both. With that said, his Week
14 "almost dud" was a product of some bad weather. Over
the first 12 weeks of the season, McMillan has earned at least
eight targets 67 percent of the time. That kind of usage will
allow him to be productive in Week 15 (Saints) and Week 16 (Bucs).
It is debatable if he will be worth a start against the Seahawks
in Week 17, however. Most managers probably will not have a better
option, but that is not a matchup I am looking forward to during
my fantasy championship week.
It is impossible not to applaud Watson for how well and how quickly
he has recovered from ACL surgery less than a year ago. The question
with him is how much longer he can continue hitting the big play,
which is a dicey proposition to count on week after week, regardless
of how talented a receiver is. What do I mean by counting on the
big play? Of his 169 yards receiving over the last two games,
92 of them have come on two catches. Touchdown luck - which often
comes attached to big plays - has also worked in his favor recently.
Considering he has more than five targets in only two of seven
games thus far, it feels like he will disappoint at some point
over the next three weeks. To that end, it is hard to find many
receivers with an aDOT of 18.4 with a catch rate as high as 65.8
percent. It seems like Week 15 (Broncos) would be a good spot
to predict where his luck will come to a screeching halt, but
I have fewer concerns about Week 16 (Bears) and Week 17 (Ravens).
He just posted 22.9 half-PPR fantasy points on the Bears last
week, while the Ravens have had their struggles against tall and
fast receivers most of the season.
Gainwell has undoubtedly earned some goodwill this season, but
I feel like he is just as likely to fall on his face during the
fantasy playoffs as he is to keep repeating the RB1 efforts he
has posted in three of his last four games. Nearly all of his
best performances this season have been driven by how often Aaron Rodgers is checking down to him (five games with at least six
catches), which is the role I think many of us expected Jaylen Warren to handle (and a role I think Warren would be doing more
with than Gainwell has). All of this is to say that while Gainwell
has become a luxury flex option for most of his fantasy managers,
it would not surprise me if Warren does not take back a bit more
of that work at some point over the next 2-3 weeks. It is also
worth noting that none of Pittsburgh's final three opponents (Dolphins,
Lions and Browns) has been very gracious in allowing running backs
to beat them in the passing game. Gainwell is an average talent
who has benefitted great from a fantasy-friendly role, which is
to say I will only feel confident starting him if I know Warren
is not playing. Otherwise, I think he is a complete roll of the
dice moving forward, especially with some tough upcoming matchups.
SaintsInDome2006: (Superflex, all TDs worth six points) Rest
of season: Marcus Mariota or J.J. McCarthy?
Also, Caleb Williams (vs. CLE), Mariota (@ NYG), McCarthy (@
DAL) in Week 15?
The short answer: I assume this is part of the same league. My
preference would be to start Mariota this week. My answer for
the best option for the rest of the season would be McCarthy.
My rationale: The discourse about Williams has been ridiculous
for several years now. He lived off improvisation during his college
days, causing many fans to anoint him as a franchise savior. He
landed in a terrible situation last year - albeit one with two
very good receivers - and got blasted by pundits for holding onto
the ball too long, mostly because he was trying to create in the
same way he did in college with then-OC Shane Waldron proving
he was in over his head tutoring a talent like Williams. This
year, Williams is on pace to take just over a third as many sacks
as he did as a rookie and now the problem is his accuracy. Folks
… this is his first year of relying on something other than
improvisation (maybe ever). It is going to take some time, and
I would say he is actually doing well given the lack of structure
that USC HC Lincoln Riley and Waldron should have provided for
him. Getting back to the question at hand, I don't want any part
of starting a non-elite quarterback against the Browns' defense.
Not only could the weather be a bit dicey in Chicago, but the
Bears will also probably be more than happy to ride the same rushing
attack that had them sitting atop the NFC up until last week.
As for Week 16, we just saw Williams against the Packers. I don't
see how the rematch turns out much differently for him.
I am not going to go chapter and verse on Mariota, in part because
he might only be a one-week rental. While Washington could theoretically
put Jayden Daniels (elbow) on ice for the rest of the season at
any point, it does not sound like the team is interested in doing
that. Thus, it makes it hard to recommend either one for the rest
of the season. For this week, however, every starting quarterback
to face the Giants since Week 5 has accounted for at least two
touchdowns. Only two defenses have surrendered more rushing yards
to quarterbacks. That is a nice floor and one that is easily reachable
for Mariota with Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel healthy.
My rookie profile on McCarthy
last year has proven to be quite accurate, to say the least. Last
week's result (163 yards passing and three touchdowns) did little
to change my opinion of him now, if only because it came against
a battered Washington defense. It also says a lot about where
he is right now that he was unable to get Justin
Jefferson going with the Commanders' defense being what it
is. I am honestly terrified of the thought of having to rely on
McCarthy in fantasy right now, even if he has a near-perfect remaining
schedule. If a defense can take away Minnesota's rushing attack
(which could happen this week against the Cowboys and again in
Week 17 versus the Lions), I'm not sure McCarthy has much fantasy
upside at all because I don't think he is capable - right now
- of being productive without the help of play-action. That could
be a big problem if Dallas and Detroit's offenses hit the ground
running.
Phil Simms 11: (PPR) Need two receivers from this bunch: Michael
Wilson (@ HOU), Jakobi Meyers (vs. NYJ), Terry McLaurin (@ NYG)
and Wan'Dale Robinson (vs. WAS)
The short answer: McLaurin and Robinson.
My rationale: Especially with how this season has unfolded, I
cannot imagine being in such good shape to have the dilemma of
needing to sit two of these receivers. With that said, it is my
job to figure out which two are the best options. For what it
is worth, the players listed above are projected as my overall
WR9, WR10, WR16 and WR28 this week.
Wilson has the most difficult matchup by far this week. How difficult,
you ask? Four receivers all season have topped 13 PPR fantasy
points against the Texans. Only six have seen double-digit targets.
Most of the teams that Wilson has victimized over the last few
weeks had the offensive firepower to get out to an early lead
and play soft defense late. I am not sure Houston does. The Texans
also possess a much better pass defense than any team Arizona
has seen since at least Week 10 (Seattle), and I would say Houston's
is better. While I am not sure any Cardinals will have a banner
day this week, I would bet more on a dominant performance from
Trey McBride than Wilson.
Meyers has wasted little time acclimating to Jacksonville, drawing
at least six targets in each of his last four games and scoring
a touchdown in each of his last three. His role feels secure and
he is probably the safest play of the bunch, so I am OK with plugging
him in my lineup over any of the other options if I feel good
about my chances of winning my fantasy matchup this week and just
want some bankable production. On the other hand, this game has
the feel of the Jags grinding out a win via the running game.
In other words, Meyers feels like a high-floor, low-upside play.
It would be disingenuous to say that McLaurin has done enough
to earn my full confidence in two games since his return. Yes,
he had the 14-target game against the Broncos in Week 13 (7-96-1),
but Washington's no-show in Week 14 is at least a bit concerning.
Yes, there is a huge difference between the Vikings and Giants,
and that is what I am basing my recommendation on this week. Assuming
we can all agree that McLaurin is the No. 1 receiver for the Commanders,
it is hard to ignore what the No. 1 receiving option has done
against New York over the last month. Rome Odunze, Christian Watson
and Amon-Ra St. Brown each topped 20 fantasy points in Weeks 10-12,
while Kayshon Boutte went 4-35-1 on just five targets in Week
13. It feels funny to say Giants-Commanders could end up being
a bit of a shootout after what Washington did last week, but it
does. If it does, I want the top receiving option on either or
both teams in my lineup. It further helps McLaurin's cause that
Zach Ertz (knee) will not be around to soak up six or seven targets,
including what would have likely been at least one or two end
zone looks.
Most of what I just said about McLaurin applies to Robinson as
well. The primary difference is that most of New York's original
secondary is still healthy. Such is not the case for Washington.
The one healthy piece in the Commanders' room is Mike Sainristil,
whose struggles were documented recently in the Delicious
Dozen. While there is a possibility that my opinion is being
affected a bit by Robinson's volume since Malik Nabers' season-ending
injury, I find it difficult to disrespect a player who has attracted
at least eight targets in five straight and finished with at least
six catches in four of them. Furthermore, Washington has struggled
to defend slot receivers for a while. I have started Robinson
with confidence for a while in the one league I have him in, so
I have no apprehension about doing so when he has one of the best
matchups he could ask for in Week 15.
RareN64Dream: (PPR) Pick two: Justin Jefferson (@ DAL), Davante
Adams (vs. DET), Emeka Egbuka (vs. ATL) or Michael Wilson (@ HOU)
The short answer: For the first question, Adams and Egbuka. If
Adams is a surprise inactive, I would go with Wilson over Jefferson.
For the second question, Barkley, Irving and Hampton (unless Jacobs
practices in full on Friday). In that case, I would reluctantly
start Jacobs over Hampton.
My rationale: Before I start, I addressed this question in the
forum before the start of Thursday Night Football (Falcons-Bucs).
As such, I will skip the players that have already played as well
as the players I have already discussed in other questions. Since
there are so many players here, I will treat this more like a
lightning round.
I never want to be that analyst who only looks at a player's
recent production, but I don't know how any manager could have
faith in Jefferson right now. (If we are being honest, this is
more about J.J. McCarthy and the offensive line than Jefferson.)
We will have to see about Adams' practice participation on Friday.
Back-to-back DNPs to start the week is rarely ever a good sign,
but I tend to believe this is the Rams' way of keeping him as
fresh as possible with two games coming up in five days. If he
is active, he is in my lineup. Not only do I love the player,
but I also love the matchup. I addressed Egbuka earlier and in
the forum and discussed Wilson above as well.
Even non-Barkley managers know the Eagles' running game looks
nothing like it did last year. With that said, we have ample recent
evidence of less talented players than Barkley with worse offensive
lines running over the Raiders. If Barkley does not score at least
20 fantasy points (or something relatively close to it), it will
likely be because Philadelphia is trying to iron out some of its
issues in the passing game. Back-to-back DNPs to start the week
is an ominous sign for Jacobs (knee), which makes what we find
out about his status Friday afternoon some of the most important
information we will see all week. I already did not like the matchup,
but I was willing to live with it if I knew I was getting 20 touches
from him. I don't think I can start him with any sort of confidence
now if he does not practice in full at all this week.
Williams is a discount version of Jacobs without an injury designation
this week, as far as I am concerned. Both players are getting
plenty of volume but have poor matchups. Williams is not seeing
enough work in the passing game to get me excited about starting
him unless I feel good about his ability to find the end zone,
which I do not. Hampton will almost certainly be part of a committee
with Kimani Vidal again this week, but I anticipate it will not
be a repeat of the workload split they had last week (15-15).
Hampton is probably the best bet of the bunch to see five targets.
While his matchup stinks as well, I feel strangely confident that
he will be the third back in as many weeks to score a rushing
touchdown on Kansas City. Why? The Chargers will want to protect
Justin Herbert more than they did last week, when he was sacked
seven times and ran 10 more times less than a week after hand
surgery.
Doug Orth has served as an analyst for FF Today since 2006 and joined the Fantasy Points team before the start of the 2024 season. He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who has not experienced a losing money season in any of his 25 years in this hobby.