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Playoff Week #1 Q&A



By Doug Orth | 12/12/25 |

A few years ago, I decided to use the final Blitz of the season to give fantasy managers a sounding board for their toughest lineup decisions entering their league's fantasy championship game. Given how well the idea was received initially, it only made sense to extend it to all three fantasy playoff weeks.

Below are five reader questions (submitted via X or the FFT forum) and my answers. Any special scoring rules will also appear in the question or immediately thereafter.

Showboat: (TD league with bonuses for 100 yards) Need four: Devin Neal (vs. CAR), Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. BUF), Emeka Egbuka (vs. ATL), Terry McLaurin (@ NYG), Courtland Sutton (vs. GB), Harold Fannin (@ CHI) and Jake Ferguson (vs. MIN)

The short answer: McLaurin, Egbuka, Sutton and Fannin.

My rationale: As luck would have it, I have five of the seven aforementioned players projected to score touchdowns this week. I cannot say the same about the likelihood of any of them putting up 100 yards, however. In general, the best bets for 100 total yards each week are featured running backs who are highly involved in the passing game. However, I don't think that is what this question is asking. (I think the question is asking if it is 100 yards rushing OR receiving, not a combination of the two.)

Neal is the closest thing we have to a featured back in this question, but I don't think he gets all that close to 100 total yards - much less 100 rushing or receiving yards. Further consider that the Saints' running back room has only three touchdowns for the season. Even though I think Neal will score again in Week 15, I think he is the worst bet of the bunch to do so.

Stevenson has the best matchup on paper in theory, but he has only come close to topping 100 yards as a rusher or a receiver twice this season, and both scenarios were a bit fluky. He has only scored a touchdown in two games and is now arguably the 1B back - at best - in this backfield, which was not the case when he was the lead back earlier in the season and somewhat viable as a flex option.

As a heavy investor in Egbuka stock this season, the last two months have not been nearly as much fun as the first five weeks of the season. His volume has been great for most of his slump, but the efficiency that was his calling card early has completely fallen off a cliff. Baker Mayfield has been "off" when targeting Egbuka, who has not helped his cause with drops. Bad luck has been a part of it, as he dropped a pass that would have gone for a 23-yard score last week. Nevertheless, I expect the return of Mike Evans to return things to their natural state, as it should mean Egbuka plays more "Z" and less "X" receiver, which is a better fit for his skill set. It should also mean the rookie sees much more of Mike Hughes this week and much less of A.J. Terrell. When that happened in Week 1 - when Evans was still healthy - Egbuka caught four passes for 67 yards and two touchdowns. Egbuka also lines up about a third of the time in the slot. Atlanta's primary slot corner is now Dee Alford, who has allowed 18 catches on 22 targets for 126 yards and a touchdown in his coverage in the last three games.

McLaurin is arguably the best bet to eclipse 100 yards and score a touchdown this week given his matchup against a Giants defense that has given up six touchdowns to receivers over the last four games and 2,152 yards to the position on the season - the fourth-highest mark in the league. The caveat is that Marcus Mariota is his quarterback now - as opposed to Jayden Daniels - and the offense looked pitiful last week versus the Vikings. With that said, Minnesota's defense is significantly better and more complex than New York's.

Sutton's midseason swoon has an easy explanation: defenses were content in letting Troy Franklin try to beat them, so they spent much of their time making sure Sutton didn't. Pat Bryant started earning the trust of the coaching staff about a month ago and is a better blocker than Franklin, which is kind of a big deal in a Sean Payton offense. Thus, Sutton and Bryant are seeing the field a lot on early downs since the Week 12 bye, which has resulted in Franklin's two lowest snap counts of the season and Sutton being the first read in the progression more often - as was typically the case throughout the first half of the year. Keep an eye on Bryant's practice participation on Friday, however. If he is ruled out, that could mean a turn for the worse for Sutton.

We still may not know much about Shedeur Sanders yet, but one thing is clear after three starts: he is a fan of Fannin. Sanders has thrown 87 passes in his starts, 22 of which have been thrown in the direction of Fannin - good for a target share of 25 percent. That is Brock Bowers and Trey McBride territory. It also happened with David Njoku playing. There is a good chance the knee injury that Njoku suffered in Week 14 could sideline him for at least this game. This week's opponent (Chicago) has not faced much in the way of good tight ends lately, but the two most athletic ones the Bears have seen since their Week 5 bye have each had their way against them (Juwan Johnson went for 5-79-1 on seven targets in Week 7 and Theo Johnson posted a 7-75-0 line in Week 10). Neither one of those tight ends is the No. 1 option on their respective teams. Fannin is. If Njoku is ruled out later in the week, Fannin will be my top-ranked tight end for the week.

My position on Ferguson will vary based on CeeDee Lamb's health. If Lamb clears the concussion protocol in time to play in Week 15, I am viewing Ferguson as a low-end TE1 for the week. If Lamb sits, I would likely start him ahead of Sutton since the likelihood of him finding the end zone increases dramatically without Lamb around.

Nomad99: (Half-PPR) Need two for the rest of the season: Stefon Diggs, Tetairoa McMillan, Christian Watson, Darius Slayton, Ricky Pearsall and Kenneth Gainwell?

The short answer: McMillan and Gainwell in Week 15. After that, I feel the best about McMillan and Watson moving forward.

My rationale: I feel comfortable with eliminating Diggs, Slayton and Pearsall from the conversation immediately. Diggs has had his moments, but his week-to-week involvement has been nothing like what I expected to be this summer. All three of his biggest games have come in tougher matchups (for receivers), which makes him almost impossible to predict. He only has three touchdowns as the clear alpha in this passing game, which means his upside is questionable as well. Slayton has delivered three WR3-level performances over his last four outings, but I think that is his ceiling in what appears to be a run-heavy offense now. If Wan'Dale Robinson was not around pushing for 10 targets per game, then maybe. Pearsall is a complete wild card at this point. Despite the amount of time he has missed in two NFL seasons, we have seen multiple examples of him stepping up as a potential alpha. With that said, he has earned no more than four targets in any of the three games he has played since returning from a knee injury. It is probably safe to say Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Jauan Jennings are higher on Kyle Shanahan's target priority list.

A bet for McMillan is a bet that his talent is starting to shine through and will overcome his less-than-ideal situation. A bet against McMillan is one that acknowledges that a low-volume passing game led by Bryce Young will eventually result in a fantasy playoff dud - like the ones he could have had over the last two weeks had he not scored a touchdown in both. With that said, his Week 14 "almost dud" was a product of some bad weather. Over the first 12 weeks of the season, McMillan has earned at least eight targets 67 percent of the time. That kind of usage will allow him to be productive in Week 15 (Saints) and Week 16 (Bucs). It is debatable if he will be worth a start against the Seahawks in Week 17, however. Most managers probably will not have a better option, but that is not a matchup I am looking forward to during my fantasy championship week.

It is impossible not to applaud Watson for how well and how quickly he has recovered from ACL surgery less than a year ago. The question with him is how much longer he can continue hitting the big play, which is a dicey proposition to count on week after week, regardless of how talented a receiver is. What do I mean by counting on the big play? Of his 169 yards receiving over the last two games, 92 of them have come on two catches. Touchdown luck - which often comes attached to big plays - has also worked in his favor recently. Considering he has more than five targets in only two of seven games thus far, it feels like he will disappoint at some point over the next three weeks. To that end, it is hard to find many receivers with an aDOT of 18.4 with a catch rate as high as 65.8 percent. It seems like Week 15 (Broncos) would be a good spot to predict where his luck will come to a screeching halt, but I have fewer concerns about Week 16 (Bears) and Week 17 (Ravens). He just posted 22.9 half-PPR fantasy points on the Bears last week, while the Ravens have had their struggles against tall and fast receivers most of the season.

Gainwell has undoubtedly earned some goodwill this season, but I feel like he is just as likely to fall on his face during the fantasy playoffs as he is to keep repeating the RB1 efforts he has posted in three of his last four games. Nearly all of his best performances this season have been driven by how often Aaron Rodgers is checking down to him (five games with at least six catches), which is the role I think many of us expected Jaylen Warren to handle (and a role I think Warren would be doing more with than Gainwell has). All of this is to say that while Gainwell has become a luxury flex option for most of his fantasy managers, it would not surprise me if Warren does not take back a bit more of that work at some point over the next 2-3 weeks. It is also worth noting that none of Pittsburgh's final three opponents (Dolphins, Lions and Browns) has been very gracious in allowing running backs to beat them in the passing game. Gainwell is an average talent who has benefitted great from a fantasy-friendly role, which is to say I will only feel confident starting him if I know Warren is not playing. Otherwise, I think he is a complete roll of the dice moving forward, especially with some tough upcoming matchups.

SaintsInDome2006: (Superflex, all TDs worth six points) Rest of season: Marcus Mariota or J.J. McCarthy?

Also, Caleb Williams (vs. CLE), Mariota (@ NYG), McCarthy (@ DAL) in Week 15?

The short answer: I assume this is part of the same league. My preference would be to start Mariota this week. My answer for the best option for the rest of the season would be McCarthy.

My rationale: The discourse about Williams has been ridiculous for several years now. He lived off improvisation during his college days, causing many fans to anoint him as a franchise savior. He landed in a terrible situation last year - albeit one with two very good receivers - and got blasted by pundits for holding onto the ball too long, mostly because he was trying to create in the same way he did in college with then-OC Shane Waldron proving he was in over his head tutoring a talent like Williams. This year, Williams is on pace to take just over a third as many sacks as he did as a rookie and now the problem is his accuracy. Folks … this is his first year of relying on something other than improvisation (maybe ever). It is going to take some time, and I would say he is actually doing well given the lack of structure that USC HC Lincoln Riley and Waldron should have provided for him. Getting back to the question at hand, I don't want any part of starting a non-elite quarterback against the Browns' defense. Not only could the weather be a bit dicey in Chicago, but the Bears will also probably be more than happy to ride the same rushing attack that had them sitting atop the NFC up until last week. As for Week 16, we just saw Williams against the Packers. I don't see how the rematch turns out much differently for him.

I am not going to go chapter and verse on Mariota, in part because he might only be a one-week rental. While Washington could theoretically put Jayden Daniels (elbow) on ice for the rest of the season at any point, it does not sound like the team is interested in doing that. Thus, it makes it hard to recommend either one for the rest of the season. For this week, however, every starting quarterback to face the Giants since Week 5 has accounted for at least two touchdowns. Only two defenses have surrendered more rushing yards to quarterbacks. That is a nice floor and one that is easily reachable for Mariota with Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel healthy.

My rookie profile on McCarthy last year has proven to be quite accurate, to say the least. Last week's result (163 yards passing and three touchdowns) did little to change my opinion of him now, if only because it came against a battered Washington defense. It also says a lot about where he is right now that he was unable to get Justin Jefferson going with the Commanders' defense being what it is. I am honestly terrified of the thought of having to rely on McCarthy in fantasy right now, even if he has a near-perfect remaining schedule. If a defense can take away Minnesota's rushing attack (which could happen this week against the Cowboys and again in Week 17 versus the Lions), I'm not sure McCarthy has much fantasy upside at all because I don't think he is capable - right now - of being productive without the help of play-action. That could be a big problem if Dallas and Detroit's offenses hit the ground running.

Michael Wilson

Phil Simms 11: (PPR) Need two receivers from this bunch: Michael Wilson (@ HOU), Jakobi Meyers (vs. NYJ), Terry McLaurin (@ NYG) and Wan'Dale Robinson (vs. WAS)

The short answer: McLaurin and Robinson.

My rationale: Especially with how this season has unfolded, I cannot imagine being in such good shape to have the dilemma of needing to sit two of these receivers. With that said, it is my job to figure out which two are the best options. For what it is worth, the players listed above are projected as my overall WR9, WR10, WR16 and WR28 this week.

Wilson has the most difficult matchup by far this week. How difficult, you ask? Four receivers all season have topped 13 PPR fantasy points against the Texans. Only six have seen double-digit targets. Most of the teams that Wilson has victimized over the last few weeks had the offensive firepower to get out to an early lead and play soft defense late. I am not sure Houston does. The Texans also possess a much better pass defense than any team Arizona has seen since at least Week 10 (Seattle), and I would say Houston's is better. While I am not sure any Cardinals will have a banner day this week, I would bet more on a dominant performance from Trey McBride than Wilson.

Meyers has wasted little time acclimating to Jacksonville, drawing at least six targets in each of his last four games and scoring a touchdown in each of his last three. His role feels secure and he is probably the safest play of the bunch, so I am OK with plugging him in my lineup over any of the other options if I feel good about my chances of winning my fantasy matchup this week and just want some bankable production. On the other hand, this game has the feel of the Jags grinding out a win via the running game. In other words, Meyers feels like a high-floor, low-upside play.

It would be disingenuous to say that McLaurin has done enough to earn my full confidence in two games since his return. Yes, he had the 14-target game against the Broncos in Week 13 (7-96-1), but Washington's no-show in Week 14 is at least a bit concerning. Yes, there is a huge difference between the Vikings and Giants, and that is what I am basing my recommendation on this week. Assuming we can all agree that McLaurin is the No. 1 receiver for the Commanders, it is hard to ignore what the No. 1 receiving option has done against New York over the last month. Rome Odunze, Christian Watson and Amon-Ra St. Brown each topped 20 fantasy points in Weeks 10-12, while Kayshon Boutte went 4-35-1 on just five targets in Week 13. It feels funny to say Giants-Commanders could end up being a bit of a shootout after what Washington did last week, but it does. If it does, I want the top receiving option on either or both teams in my lineup. It further helps McLaurin's cause that Zach Ertz (knee) will not be around to soak up six or seven targets, including what would have likely been at least one or two end zone looks.

Most of what I just said about McLaurin applies to Robinson as well. The primary difference is that most of New York's original secondary is still healthy. Such is not the case for Washington. The one healthy piece in the Commanders' room is Mike Sainristil, whose struggles were documented recently in the Delicious Dozen. While there is a possibility that my opinion is being affected a bit by Robinson's volume since Malik Nabers' season-ending injury, I find it difficult to disrespect a player who has attracted at least eight targets in five straight and finished with at least six catches in four of them. Furthermore, Washington has struggled to defend slot receivers for a while. I have started Robinson with confidence for a while in the one league I have him in, so I have no apprehension about doing so when he has one of the best matchups he could ask for in Week 15.

RareN64Dream: (PPR) Pick two: Justin Jefferson (@ DAL), Davante Adams (vs. DET), Emeka Egbuka (vs. ATL) or Michael Wilson (@ HOU)

Pick three: Saquon Barkley (vs. LV), Josh Jacobs (@ DEN), Javonte Williams (vs. MIN), Bucky Irving (vs. ATL) and Omarion Hampton (@ KC)?

The short answer: For the first question, Adams and Egbuka. If Adams is a surprise inactive, I would go with Wilson over Jefferson. For the second question, Barkley, Irving and Hampton (unless Jacobs practices in full on Friday). In that case, I would reluctantly start Jacobs over Hampton.

My rationale: Before I start, I addressed this question in the forum before the start of Thursday Night Football (Falcons-Bucs). As such, I will skip the players that have already played as well as the players I have already discussed in other questions. Since there are so many players here, I will treat this more like a lightning round.

I never want to be that analyst who only looks at a player's recent production, but I don't know how any manager could have faith in Jefferson right now. (If we are being honest, this is more about J.J. McCarthy and the offensive line than Jefferson.) We will have to see about Adams' practice participation on Friday. Back-to-back DNPs to start the week is rarely ever a good sign, but I tend to believe this is the Rams' way of keeping him as fresh as possible with two games coming up in five days. If he is active, he is in my lineup. Not only do I love the player, but I also love the matchup. I addressed Egbuka earlier and in the forum and discussed Wilson above as well.

Even non-Barkley managers know the Eagles' running game looks nothing like it did last year. With that said, we have ample recent evidence of less talented players than Barkley with worse offensive lines running over the Raiders. If Barkley does not score at least 20 fantasy points (or something relatively close to it), it will likely be because Philadelphia is trying to iron out some of its issues in the passing game. Back-to-back DNPs to start the week is an ominous sign for Jacobs (knee), which makes what we find out about his status Friday afternoon some of the most important information we will see all week. I already did not like the matchup, but I was willing to live with it if I knew I was getting 20 touches from him. I don't think I can start him with any sort of confidence now if he does not practice in full at all this week.

Williams is a discount version of Jacobs without an injury designation this week, as far as I am concerned. Both players are getting plenty of volume but have poor matchups. Williams is not seeing enough work in the passing game to get me excited about starting him unless I feel good about his ability to find the end zone, which I do not. Hampton will almost certainly be part of a committee with Kimani Vidal again this week, but I anticipate it will not be a repeat of the workload split they had last week (15-15). Hampton is probably the best bet of the bunch to see five targets. While his matchup stinks as well, I feel strangely confident that he will be the third back in as many weeks to score a rushing touchdown on Kansas City. Why? The Chargers will want to protect Justin Herbert more than they did last week, when he was sacked seven times and ran 10 more times less than a week after hand surgery.


Doug Orth has served as an analyst for FF Today since 2006 and joined the Fantasy Points team before the start of the 2024 season. He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who has not experienced a losing money season in any of his 25 years in this hobby.