A large part of my success in 20-plus years in this industry - and
specifically in the 19 years I have utilized Preseason Matchup Analysis
- can be attributed to preparing for the playoffs before the season
begins. Suffice it to say, the notion of preparing for the postseason
before everyone else does is a central part of my fantasy philosophy.
I came up with the concept for this column roughly 15 years ago.
While I dabbled putting it in the regular-season "rotation,"
I spoke more about the importance of planning for the postseason
in my columns for the next several years before devoting two weeks
of articles to it for the first time about three years ago. At
any rate, one of the last edges that can be realized in this hobby
is identifying whose matchups stand out so much that they could
be potential league-winning types.
After discussing quarterbacks and running backs last
week, the focus this week will be on wide receivers, tight
ends, kickers and defense/special teams units with the best fantasy
playoff matchups.
Most of the reason for doing this now - as opposed to a week
or so before Week 15 - is because it leaves fantasy managers some
time to acquire the assets via trade or off the waiver wire. I
will mention the elite options when applicable, but the point
of this piece is to line up the "easy" matchups in Weeks
15-17 before your league-mates do.
I understand the majority of the players below are already on
rosters, but the bulk of them can be had at a slight discount
for one reason or another via trade.
Note: Opponents highlighted in green represent
what should be favorable matchups. Opponents highlighted in red
represent what should be unfavorable matchups.
Wide Receivers
Here are the defenses that have been the most favorable fantasy
matchups for receivers through 11 weeks:
This is very much a good news, bad news situation. Of the seven
teams that I feel confident in saying have a good fantasy playoff
schedule, most of them have good or great receivers (Vikings,
49ers, Eagles, Commanders, Browns, Dolphins and Giants). So what
is the bad news? Maybe only the 49ers have a situation where you
trust the quarterback and the current offensive environment. In
other words, this may not be one of those years where matchups
are overly critical in determining who stays alive and who goes
home - at least at receiver.
Of the 10 or so teams with the softest receiver schedules during
the fantasy playoffs, here are the most realistic options of the
bunch (in the order I would prefer them over the rest of the season):
Isn't the Philadelphia offense the unhappiest group of defending
Super Bowl champions that you can remember? The play-caller stinks,
A.J. Brown is unhappy about his lack of involvement, the run game
can't get going and the offensive line is injured … does
that about sum up the complaints we hear regularly? Included in
that mix is the one player who has spent most of his 4 1/2 NFL
seasons living a quiet life in Smith. "The Slim Reaper"
is probably the one player who will never be caught saying anything
negative on camera. What he does every year is go underappreciated
by real and fantasy fans alike. Amid all of the chaos about how
the Eagles' offense is broken and/or Brown not seeing enough targets
is that Smith has five of the seven best fantasy performances
by a Philadelphia receiver this year. (Smith has scored at least
14.4 PPR fantasy points five times while Brown has only done so
twice.) Smith has been the better receiver this year, and it would
not be terribly surprising if the Eagles make an adjustment and
move more in that direction as the team prepares for the playoffs.
Anyone who needed a reminder about the secondary of the Raiders
(Week 15) probably saw what they needed to see on Monday night
against the Cowboys in Week 11. While Eric Stokes is having a
decent year, Kyu Blu Kelly is getting picked on a lot. Their primary
slot corners are Darnay Holmes and safety Jeremy Chinn and that
is working out about as well as most expected. As for the Commanders
(Week 16), Marshon Lattimore (torn ACL) was lost for the season
earlier this month and Mike Sainristil has struggled in 2025 after
a stellar rookie season. The Bills (Week 17) will be much more
of a challenge than the aforementioned opponents - especially
if the weather is as poor as it usually is in Buffalo in late
December - but we need to remember how much Philly is struggling
to run the ball. Things might be about to get worse in that regard
with RT Lane Johnson (foot) likely done for the rest of the regular
season. Smith is the one receiver in Philadelphia who can get
open quickly, which is something the Eagles should lean on more
often moving forward.
Without question, Williams will not come as cheaply as he would
have a couple of weeks ago. I do not think that makes him a bad
buy, however. Yes, his three-game touchdown streak will end sooner
rather than later. No, I don't think that is going to be nearly
the issue it would have been in September or October. Williams
has been targeted seven times in each of the two games since HC
Dan Campbell took over the play-calling duties and put more of
an emphasis on Williams running more horizontal routes. (It is
the same kind of thing that led to Tyreek Hill's emergence a few
years ago when HC Andy Reid used him more often on deep over routes.
It is more difficult for defenders to stay with high-end speedsters
across the field - where there may be other players they need
to avoid - than it is to run with a receiver vertically. Perhaps
just as importantly, defenses cannot put a safety over the top
of a wideout running horizontally.) It could be argued that Williams'
presence is even more important now with Sam LaPorta (back) on
IR. While LaPorta should be back in time for the start of the
fantasy playoffs, we also saw him take a back seat to Williams
last season. Williams has a chance over the next few weeks to
prove why it should happen again. One last thing: do not overlook
the fact that Detroit will play indoors throughout the fantasy
postseason.
The Rams (Week 15) are more of a middling matchup - as opposed
to a good one - for receivers in general, but their run defense
has been so good for much of the season that passing-game volume
should help the cause for Detroit's receivers on that day. It
is also worth noting that Los Angeles has not faced many good
or great receivers this season. Ones that come attached to offenses
with dynamic running games have fared reasonably well. The Steelers
(Week 16) have been one of the best matchups for wideouts all
season long. While still not nearly at the level of the Rams,
Pittsburgh's run defense has improved to the point where Detroit
could need to air it out in this one as well. After surrendering
just one touchdown to receivers over the first five games, the
Vikings (Week 17) have been much more susceptible to giving up
major production to receivers since. Williams (4-66-1) is among
the five receivers who have scored at least 16 PPR fantasy points
against Minnesota in its last five outings. (That Week 9 loss
to the Vikings was the game before Campbell took over for OC John
Morton, for what it is worth.)
I would love to include Brandon Aiyuk's name above, but we are
about to enter the start of Week 12 and there still is no definitive
word on when he will begin practicing. I would like to do the
same with Ricky Pearsall, but he just returned to action in Week
11. It is possible the 49ers will be conservative with his ramp-up
period over the next month or so considering how much he has dealt
with injury issues in 2025. You know it is one of those years
when the "healthy guy" is the one who told reporters
not so long ago that he was playing through five broken ribs,
a low-ankle sprain and a high-ankle sprain, but that is where
we are with Jennings and the 49ers receivers.
If you can name a current starting cornerback for the Titans
(Week 15), congratulations. What could have been a good group
(L'Jarius Sneed, Roger McCreary and Darrell Baker) is now just
down to Baker, former Raven Jalyn Armour-Davis and 2025 sixth-round
pick Marcus Harris. All of them have a passer rating against allowed
of well over 100 and none of them have an interception. In fact,
they each only have two passes defensed across their 27 combined
games and 497 coverage snaps. By the time the 49ers visit the
Colts in Week 16, I expect Indianapolis to be a much more difficult
matchup as Sauce Gardner gets more comfortable in DC Lou Anarumo's
scheme and Charvarius Ward gets his legs under him following his
IR stint. With that said, Indy's offense - combined with the 49ers'
injuries on defense - should make this a game where San Francisco
is chasing points. The Bears (Week 17) have a chance to be healthier
on the back end of their defense in another month, but the only
cornerback of consequence (at least from the perspective of being
a reason to downgrade a receiver) is Jaylon Johnson. While Johnson
(core) appears to be on his way back relatively soon, his status
- much less his ability to be a top-five corner again this year
- is still very much an unknown at this point.
Other receivers of note with favorable playoff schedules:
Wan'Dale
Robinson, Giants (Weeks 15 and 17), Alec
Pierce and Josh
Downs, Colts (Weeks 16 and 17)
Other receivers of note with favorable playoff schedules
(who I will likely avoid, due mostly to quarterback play): Justin
Jefferson and Jordan
Addison, Vikings (Weeks 15 and 16, avoid due to uneven quarterback
play), Deebo
Samuel, Commanders (Weeks 15 and 17), Jerry
Jeudy and Cedric
Tillman, Browns (Week 17)
Tight Ends
Once again, let's highlight the defenses that have been the most
favorable fantasy matchups, this time for tight ends:
Of the 10 or so teams with the softest tight end schedules during
the fantasy playoffs, here are the most realistic options of the
bunch (in the order I would prefer them over the rest of the season):
Just starting calling Andrews "Mr. Second Half." Last
year, things were so bleak through the first month of the season
that people started dropping him after Week 4. From that point
on, he was the overall TE6. Of course, we knew (or should have
known) the reason for that; he was recovering from a car accident.
He had no such excuses or reasons for a slow start this season,
right? Just about the time people were ready to rage drop him
in Week 3, he goes for 91 yards and two touchdowns in a track
meet against the Lions. He followed that with a 7-30-0 line on
eight targets the following week before doing next to nothing
again for the next three weeks - all during the time Lamar Jackson
missed with his knee injury. Jackson returned in Week 9 and so
did Andrews, who is again the overall TE6 in the last three weeks.
For anyone who dropped him, we should have known better. Andrews
is nowhere near as bad as his production said he was in the first
two weeks with Jackson or the three weeks without him.
What should be clear now is that he is probably going to be a
TE1 for as long as he is tied to Jackson's hip. Jackson does not
receive near the credit he deserves as a passer. The chemistry
those two have built is strong, partly as a result of being in
the same 2018 draft class. Perhaps the only problem - as opposed
to a few years ago before Zay Flowers arrived - is that Andrews
is more touchdown-dependent. In case there was any doubt about
that, look at his game logs for this season. He has earned five
targets or fewer in seven of 10 games and three or fewer targets
in five of 10. Even for a good tight end in a high-scoring offense,
he needs to be highly efficient to be a weekly asset with so little
volume.
As luck would have it, efficiency should not be a problem for
Andrews in at least two of the last three games of the fantasy
season. The Bengals (Week 15) have been absolutely pummeled by
tight ends. Their 12 TDs allowed the position is nearly double
that of any other team in the league. They have also surrendered
a league-high 808 yards to the position. Their 21.9 PPR fantasy
points per game allowed to the position is not too far off what
Trey McBride (23.9) is averaging over his last three outings.
The run defense of the Patriots (Week 16) has been so good that
opponents have had little choice but to take to the air. With
Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones playing well, teams have resorted
to throwing more often to their running backs and tight ends versus
New England. Unsurprisingly, no team has given up more receptions
to running backs (63) or tight ends (69) than the Patriots. The
Packers (Week 17) have held tight ends in check since McBride
scorched them for 74 yards and two TDs in Week 7, but no one is
going to mistake tight ends from the Steelers, Panthers, Eagles
(more about the offense in general than Dallas Goedert) and Giants
for being superstars. Andrews may not be a superstar anymore either,
but Green Bay is probably even more exploitable than what its
current ranking (10th-most forgiving) against tight ends says
it is.
Waller is a complete wild card, no question about it. First and
foremost, Miami needs something to play for before it can be reasonably
expected to bring Waller back from IR. Things are actually looking
up in that regard, however. At 4-7 now and with upcoming (winnable)
games after their Week 12 against the Saints and Jets, the Dolphins
could be one game under .500 at the start of the fantasy postseason.
It is conceivable that Miami could be one game out of the last
wild-card spot at that point. The other factor to consider with
Waller is that he is currently on IR recovering from a pectoral
injury. His injury history is not for the faint of heart. With
that said, what Waller did in four games playing 45.7 percent
of the offensive snaps was borderline amazing. In the three games
he didn't get hurt in (Weeks 4-6), he was the overall TE5. Being
able to muster 10 catches for 117 yards and four scores in three
games is good work for any tight end and no small feat for a full-timer.
Waller was nowhere close to that.
The Steelers (Week 15) are still paying for the sins of giving
up two-touchdown games to Hunter Henry and Tucker Kraft, but those
are not the only efforts that made them the great matchup they
appear to be on paper. Harold Fannin Jr. (7-81-0) and Noah Fant
(4-44-1) are on the list as well, and Oronde Gadsden II probably
would have been too were it not for an injury cutting his game
against Pittsburgh short. Since I discussed the Bengals (Week
16) above, let's move on to the fantasy championship round. The
Buccaneers are actually not a great matchup on paper for tight
ends this season, but this would be one game I would trust in
the talent and the role over the matchup. For the short time Waller
was healthy, he appeared to be the primary target in the red zone.
For all of their faults, the Dolphins can be explosive offensively,
so trips inside the 20 could become more frequent down the stretch.
Other tight ends of note with favorable playoff schedules
(who will be much harder to acquire): Tyler
Warren, Colts (Weeks 15, 16 and 17)
Kickers
Let's briefly highlight the defenses that have been the most
favorable fantasy matchups for kickers:
Kickers who could receive a bump during the fantasy playoffs
due to a favorable schedule:Andres
Borregales, Patriots (Weeks 16 and 17), Brandon
Aubrey, Cowboys (Weeks 15 and 17), Evan
McPherson, Bengals (Weeks 15 and 17), Jake
Bates, Lions (Weeks 16 and 17), Brandon
McManus, Packers (Weeks 15 and 17), Riley
Patterson, Dolphins (Weeks 15 and 16)
Defense/Special Teams
Let's briefly highlight the teams that have been the most favorable
fantasy matchups for defense/special teams units:
For at least the second year in a row, most of the best matchups
for DSTs have landed with teams that may not be able to take advantage
of them. The Saints are at the top of the list. Not far behind
them are the Giants, Cowboys and Bengals. As a result, streamers
or managers without an elite option may need to get out of their
comfort zone to make things work this postseason or consider rostering
two or three DSTs (far from ideal). Maybe there are people out
there who like the idea of competing with a few of their league-mates
for whoever is matched up against the Titans, Browns or Raiders
each week during the fantasy playoffs. I do not. Hoping the worst
defenses slow down the worst offenses is playing with fire.
Texans (ARI, LV,
@LAC)
There is not much analysis to provide here outside of how great
Houston DST managers should feel about having an elite option
face three top-seven opponents during the most important time
of the fantasy season. The Cardinals (Week 15) are tied for fifth
in most sacks allowed through 11 weeks with 34. They have not
exactly faced a who's who of defenses either. The two elite pass-rushing
units that have seen (Seattle twice and Green Bay once) have combined
for 16 of those 34 sacks. Most of what I just said about Arizona
also applies to the Raiders (Week 16). Las Vegas has given up
31 sacks this season and scored fewer than 10 points four times
despite only facing one defense on par with Houston. (Denver collected
six sacks and held the Raiders to seven points.) The Chargers
(Week 17) feel like a much riskier option until we remember how
poor Justin Herbert's protection has been in the games LT Joe
Alt did not play. (Alt was lost for the season in Week 9.) Even
with Alt in about half of their games, the Chargers have allowed
37 sacks for the season.
Eagles (LV, @WAS,
@BUF)
Philadelphia is a bit more of a projection than Houston, but
it is not hard to see how both squads could end up dominating
on defense during the fantasy postseason. It is not hard to pick
on the Raiders (Week 15) for the reasons discussed above. Would
you rather have Moro Ojomo, Jordan Davis, Jalen Carter and Jaelan
Phillips OR Stone Forsythe (Kolton Miller should be off IR by
Week 15), Dylan Parham, Jordan Meredith, Alex Cappa and DJ Glaze?
Exactly. The Commanders (Week 16) are not yet a highly favorable
matchup for DSTs, but I think it is only a matter of time before
they are with Marcus Mariota at quarterback. Washington is averaging
14 points in his last three starts and may ultimately decide not
to bring back Jayden Daniels or Terry McLaurin at this rate. The
idea of starting any DST at Buffalo (Week 17) in late December
would be a bold call and one I would probably only make if I knew
the weather was going to be awful. With that said, the Eagles'
defense is starting to resemble last year's Super Bowl unit.
Other defense/special teams units of note with favorable
playoff schedules: Steelers (Weeks 15 and 17),
Saints (Weeks 16 and 17), Chiefs
(Week 16), Patriots (Week 17)
Doug Orth has served as an analyst for FF Today since 2006 and joined the Fantasy Points team before the start of the 2024 season. He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who has not experienced a losing money season in any of his 25 years in this hobby.