Fantasy Football Today - fantasy football rankings, cheatsheets, and information
A Fantasy Football Community!




 Log In  | Sign Up  |  Contact     






The Postseason Plan - Part 1



By Doug Orth | 11/14/25 |

A large part of my success in 20-plus years in this industry - and specifically in the 19 years I have utilized Preseason Matchup Analysis - can be attributed to preparing for the playoffs before the season begins. Do I put a lot of weight into matchups in July and August? No, but I do account for them. That is an important distinction. If it does nothing else, it helps to break ties. There is no question in my mind that I have avoided a lot more "bust players" over the years than the average analyst/fantasy player because of it.

While I do not expect the majority of readers to go to the same lengths that I do, the savviest managers tend to use the time leading up to Thanksgiving as an opportunity to prepare for the postseason. It behooves managers to consider now what matchups we want to target in December. (I guarantee league-mates in most competitive leagues have already started doing this or are about to do so.) Lining up key handcuffs and great matchups now allows us to save on FAAB for more important expenditures, such as when a manager is forced to drop a key player for a bye-week fill-in over the next few weeks.

The focus of this week will be on quarterbacks and running backs with the best fantasy playoff matchups. (I plan to give the same treatment to wide receivers, tight ends, kickers and defense/special teams units next week.)

Most of the reason for doing this - as opposed to a week or so before Week 15 - is because it leaves fantasy managers some time to acquire the assets via trade or off the waiver wire. I will mention the elite options when applicable, but the point of this piece is to explain why the more "available" players could be almost as valuable - if not more so.

I understand the majority of the players below are already on rosters, but the bulk of them can be had at a slight discount for one reason or another via trade.

Note: Opponents highlighted in green represent what should be favorable matchups. Opponents highlighted in red represent what should be unfavorable matchups.

Quarterbacks

Here are the defenses that have been the most favorable fantasy matchups for quarterbacks through 10 weeks:

1. Cowboys
2. Bears
3. Jaguars
4. Commanders
5. Steelers
6. Bengals
7. Giants
8. Dolphins

The good news is that the majority of quarterbacks with (multiple) good playoff matchups are available in most leagues. The bad news is that one of them is borderline unplayable outside of superflex/two-quarterback leagues (Dillon Gabriel). Another one has four career starts and thrown for more than 200 yards in just one of them (J.J. McCarthy). Yet another is the enigma known as Tua Tagovailoa. I suppose you could sell me on starting Tagovailoa in Week 15 against the Steelers and Week 16 versus the Bengals if my regular starter gets hurt in Week 14, but the situation would have to be fairly dire for me to go down that road (limited FAAB, most of your league has two quarterbacks rostered, etc.).

Of the remaining players with the 10 or so softest quarterback schedules during the fantasy playoffs, here are the most realistic options of the bunch (in the order I would prefer them over the rest of the season):

Jayden Daniels/Marcus Mariota, Commanders (@NYG, MIN, @LV)

The Giants (Week 15) are an attractive matchup for several reasons, not the least of which is the fact that they have surrendered at least two touchdowns to quarterbacks in four straight entering Week 11. Every starting quarterback that has faced New York has accounted for at least one score versus the Giants, who are giving up an average of 244 passing yards per game. The Vikings (Week 16) still appear as a difficult matchup for signal-callers, although Lamar Jackson (of all people) in Week 10 became the first quarterback in five games to settle for only one passing TD. The Raiders (Week 17) have been relatively stingy against quarterbacks given the public perception of the team, only once permitting a signal-caller to account for three scores (Patrick Mahomes). Mahomes is also the only quarterback since Week 2 to throw for more than 222 yards against Las Vegas.

One of the problems of recommending either Washington quarterback is that we have no idea how long Mariota will remain in the lineup. (Put another way, there is no guarantee Daniels returns this season.) Mariota has been a serviceable replacement each time he has needed to fill in for Daniels this year, but "serviceable" during the fantasy playoffs is only good if the rest of your team is playing up to its potential. The 32-year-old has started four games in 2025; while he has accounted for two touchdowns in three of them, he has topped out at 213 yards passing while averaging less than 30 yards rushing.

Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy/Mac Jones, 49ers (TEN, @IND, CHI)

Following the recent trades of Roger McCreary to the Rams and Jarvis Brownlee to the Jets, the Titans (Week 15) have virtually no one at cornerback left who scares offenses. Perhaps it is no surprise then that the last three quarterbacks to face Tennessee have each passed for at least 222 yards and two touchdowns. Two of the three have even run for at least 57 yards (Drake Maye and Justin Herbert). The Colts (Week 16) are a relatively tame "difficult" matchup on paper in that they are giving up an average of 255 yards per game through the air. With that said, Indy figures to be much more difficult in the near future once Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward, who is near the end of an IR stint with a concussion he suffered during warmups in Week 6, have played a few games together. The Bears (Week 17) can put most of the blame on Jared Goff (334 yards and five touchdowns in Week 2) and Joe Flacco (470 yards and four touchdowns in Week 9) for their poor pass defense numbers. However, the fact of the matter is that Dak Prescott is the only somewhat established quarterback they have faced who has scored less than 20 fantasy points.

The identity of the San Francisco quarterback next month comes with less mystery than the Daniels/Mariota pairing above. Purdy is expected to return to the starting lineup in Week 11. In case there was any doubt about his job status, fantasy managers need to remember Purdy just signed a five-year, $265 million contract extension in the offseason. He has proven he can elevate the players around him and the offense in general, so he isn't losing his job anytime soon. The 49ers have not felt the need to rush him back from his toe injury because Jones is playing well. However, "playing well" over a 1 1/2-month stretch does not automatically entitle a player to be handed the keys to the car when the owner of the car has driven the car well for roughly 2 1/2 years.

Other quarterbacks of note with favorable playoff schedules (who will be much harder to acquire): Daniel Jones (Weeks 16 and 17), Jaxson Dart (Week 15)

Running Backs

Since all starting running backs and most of their direct backups are on fantasy rosters in most leagues (and have been for some time), almost every player below will need to be acquired via trade.

Once again, let's highlight the defenses that have been the most favorable fantasy matchups, this time for running backs:

1. Bengals
2. Cowboys
3. Giants
4. Falcon
5. Titans
6. Bills
7. Ravens
8. Dolphins

Of the 10 or so teams with the softest running back schedules during the fantasy playoffs, here are the most realistic options of the bunch (in the order I would prefer them over the rest of the season):

Bucky Irving

Bucky Irving, Buccaneers (ATL, @CAR, @MIA)

Irving has practiced on a limited basis so far this week, so there is a possibility we will see him as early as Week 11. The Falcons (Week 15) were a good run defense on paper through five games, but Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor were among the players who proved Atlanta's lightweight front line could be exposed by a power rushing attack during their four-game losing streak. Carolina (Week 16) has generally been respectable against the run outside of two games. With that said, the Panthers' offense lacks punch (16 or fewer points in four straight), so it would not take much for the Buccaneers to jump ahead early and give Irving enough volume to make up for whatever lack of efficiency he might have that day. The Dolphins (Week 17) have been a bit of a mixed bag defensively, holding Taylor to 71 scoreless yards rushing in Week 1 and James Cook to 53 scoreless rushing yards in Week 10. Conversely, there was a three-week stretch during which Rico Dowdle (206 rushing yards and a touchdown), Kimani Vidal (124 rushing yards and a receiving score) and Quinshon Judkins (84 rushing yards and three TDs) each scored at least 22.8 fantasy points. What it shows is that the Dolphins are capable of being a decent run defense, but who knows what the mindset in Miami will be in Week 17?

Assuming Irving returns to action by Week 12, I would fully expect him to return to being a bell-cow back well in advance of the fantasy playoffs. While I understand it is a huge assumption that roughly 25 percent of Irving-led teams have been able to remain in the playoff chase this long without him (and those that have will likely be reluctant to trade him based on how long they waited), the truth of the matter is that his four healthy games this year included touch totals of 18, 23, 29 and 20. White is once again showing his efficiency declines in a big way when he sees too much work. For whatever reason, it has taken until the last two weeks for Tucker to see the kind of work he should have been getting since Irving got hurt in Week 4. All this is to say that it should not take long for Irving to return to a heavy workload. When he does, he will not have to face the likes of the Texans and Eagles, as he did in two of his final three games.

Trey Benson, Cardinals (@HOU, ATL, @CIN)

Especially based on the results of the last five weeks, Benson should have the easiest road to glory of any running back during the fantasy playoffs. One of the opponents during the stretch (the Falcons) has been adversely affected by going up against Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor over the last month, although the case could be made that Atlanta had only faced one fantasy stud over the first six weeks. Benson does not belong in the same conversation as McCaffrey or Taylor, but that does not change the fact that he should perform very well in late December.

The first matchup of the fantasy playoffs is not a great one, as the Texans (Week 15) are holding running backs to less than four yards per carry for the season and have yet to allow an individual rusher to run for more than 71 yards. Only one running back (Irving, 121) has exceeded 77 total yards versus Houston, which is quite amazing since the Texans have already faced Kyren Williams, Travis Etienne (twice), Derrick Henry, McCaffrey and J.K. Dobbins. Since I already discussed the Falcons (Week 16) at length above, I will move right to the matchup that Benson's managers should be salivating over. The Bengals (Week 17) have given up at least 16.7 PPR fantasy points to the lead running back in every game so far. Five running backs have rushed for more than 100 yards, while three of the last four lead backs have scored at least 22.8 fantasy points.

The primary issue for Benson right now is returning to the field. The team has yet to open the practice window for the second-year running back, who was expected to miss 4-6 weeks following surgery on his meniscus. Week 11 against San Francisco will mark seven weeks since the injury happened. Perhaps the most frustrating thing is how little information fantasy managers are getting on the situation. HC Jonathan Gannon gave reporters an ever-helpful nugget on Nov. 12 when he said that Benson is "taking it day by day." (Thanks, coach.) At this point (and especially with the Cardinals quickly fading out of the playoff race), there is a chance that Benson does not come back. That outcome seems unlikely, especially since Arizona needs to answer the question of whether it needs to prioritize adding a complementary running back in the offseason. A strong showing from Benson over the last 6-7 weeks of the season would make that a non-issue.

Aaron Jones, Vikings (@DAL, @NYG, DET)

Technically, I could/should include Jordan Mason, but he appears to be well behind Jones on HC Kevin O'Connell's priority list right now. Unlike last season, Jones will need efficiency and good matchups to thrive down the stretch because there has been nothing to suggest he will see a lot of volume this year. Not only has he topped out at 12 touches this year (in five games, one of which he left early due to injury), but the Vikings have also not given any running back 20 touches yet this year. For the season, Minnesota running backs are splitting 22 touches per game. Only the Commanders, Titans and Bengals are averaging less. (Twelve teams are averaging at least 26 backfield touches and six are averaging at least 28.) Unless one player is commanding the backfield - which Jones is relatively close to doing at this point - it is almost impossible for a running back to be a strong fantasy contributor with so little opportunity.

The Cowboys (Week 15) have been the second-best matchup for running backs this season - right ahead of the Giants. The trade deadline acquisition of DT Quinnen Williams and LB Logan Wilson will undoubtedly make Dallas a tougher defense to run on moving forward, but it seems unlikely their arrivals alone will make the Cowboys even a middling matchup for running backs. The Giants (Week 16) have been eviscerated on the ground over the last three weeks, giving up at least 80 rushing yards to the opposing lead back. Perhaps to illustrate their struggles more profoundly, they have surrendered an average of 174.3 rushing yards and 1.7 touchdowns to the running back position over that time. The Lions (Week 17) are by no means a great matchup, but Jones managed to post RB2 production in a Week 9 upset in Detroit. This does not mean I would be thrilled about counting on Jones in my fantasy championship, but it does mean that he has already given us proof that he will not drag down the rest of your lineup if it comes to that.

Chris Rodriguez Jr., Commanders (@NYG, PHI, DAL)

Let's be clear. Rodriguez would be a pure desperation play during the fantasy playoffs given what we know at the moment. Still, I hate myself for halfway recommending him, if only because Jacory Croskey-Merritt is a superior talent and Rodriguez provides next to nothing in the passing game. Nevertheless, Rodriguez appears to be the preferred option in Washington right now. Croskey-Merritt's biggest problem is that he is still an undisciplined runner and has a long way to go to be a complete back, which is reflected in the fact that he only has eight catches (on 12 targets) and 20 pass-blocking reps through 10 weeks despite not missing a game. Maybe these shortcomings are less of an issue next year, but they are unlikely to be corrected over the next month. Furthermore, OC Kliff Kingsbury has leaned more on committee backfields during his time as an NFL play-caller more often than not. With that said, the best bet for a goal-line touchdown and 10-plus carries in this backfield each week is Rodriguez - like it or not. He started Week 10 and appeared to be on his way to becoming the clear lead back (for now) before exiting the game for good with a shoulder injury shortly after his 1-yard touchdown late in the second quarter. He is reportedly expected to have "a key role" in Week 11.

Let's make the dangerous assumption for now that Rodriguez remains in the catbird's seat for the rest of the season and further assume that his workloads will be more in line with the 12 carries he received in Week 9. At any rate, I already discussed the Giants (Week 15) and Cowboys (Week 17) in the previous section, so I won't spend much time extolling the virtues of those matchups. The Eagles (Week 16) are not quite as dominant defensively this year as they were in 2024, but they are showing signs of improvement lately and are unlikely to be a great matchup for anyone in this offense across the board. Hopefully, your fantasy season does not come down to deciding between Rodriguez, Croskey-Merritt or another fringe option during the fantasy playoffs, but one can make the case that Rodriguez could be flex-worthy in two of the final three weeks of the fantasy season.

Other running backs of note with favorable playoff schedules (who will be much harder to acquire): Saquon Barkley (Weeks 16 and 17), De'Von Achane (Weeks 15 and 16)

Handcuffs to the backs above that should be rostered in most leagues: Emari Demercado, Zonovan Knight, Rachaad White, Sean Tucker, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jordan Mason


Doug Orth has served as an analyst for FF Today since 2006 and joined the Fantasy Points team before the start of the 2024 season. He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who has not experienced a losing money season in any of his 25 years in this hobby.