A large part of my success in 20-plus years in this industry - and
specifically in the 19 years I have utilized Preseason Matchup Analysis
- can be attributed to preparing for the playoffs before the season
begins. Do I put a lot of weight into matchups in July and August?
No, but I do account for them. That is an important distinction.
If it does nothing else, it helps to break ties. There is no question
in my mind that I have avoided a lot more "bust players"
over the years than the average analyst/fantasy player because of
it.
While I do not expect the majority of readers to go to the same
lengths that I do, the savviest managers tend to use the time
leading up to Thanksgiving as an opportunity to prepare for the
postseason. It behooves managers to consider now what matchups
we want to target in December. (I guarantee league-mates in most
competitive leagues have already started doing this or are about
to do so.) Lining up key handcuffs and great matchups now allows
us to save on FAAB for more important expenditures, such as when
a manager is forced to drop a key player for a bye-week fill-in
over the next few weeks.
The focus of this week will be on quarterbacks and running backs
with the best fantasy playoff matchups. (I plan to give the same
treatment to wide receivers, tight ends, kickers and defense/special
teams units next week.)
Most of the reason for doing this - as opposed to a week or so
before Week 15 - is because it leaves fantasy managers some time
to acquire the assets via trade or off the waiver wire. I will
mention the elite options when applicable, but the point of this
piece is to explain why the more "available" players
could be almost as valuable - if not more so.
I understand the majority of the players below are already on
rosters, but the bulk of them can be had at a slight discount
for one reason or another via trade.
Note: Opponents highlighted in green represent
what should be favorable matchups. Opponents highlighted in red
represent what should be unfavorable matchups.
Quarterbacks
Here are the defenses that have been the most favorable fantasy
matchups for quarterbacks through 10 weeks:
The good news is that the majority of quarterbacks with (multiple)
good playoff matchups are available in most leagues. The bad news
is that one of them is borderline unplayable outside of superflex/two-quarterback
leagues (Dillon Gabriel). Another one has four career starts and
thrown for more than 200 yards in just one of them (J.J. McCarthy).
Yet another is the enigma known as Tua Tagovailoa. I suppose you
could sell me on starting Tagovailoa in Week 15 against the Steelers
and Week 16 versus the Bengals if my regular starter gets hurt
in Week 14, but the situation would have to be fairly dire for
me to go down that road (limited FAAB, most of your league has
two quarterbacks rostered, etc.).
Of the remaining players with the 10 or so softest quarterback
schedules during the fantasy playoffs, here are the most realistic
options of the bunch (in the order I would prefer them over the
rest of the season):
The Giants (Week 15) are an attractive matchup for several reasons,
not the least of which is the fact that they have surrendered
at least two touchdowns to quarterbacks in four straight entering
Week 11. Every starting quarterback that has faced New York has
accounted for at least one score versus the Giants, who are giving
up an average of 244 passing yards per game. The Vikings (Week
16) still appear as a difficult matchup for signal-callers, although
Lamar Jackson (of all people) in Week 10 became the first quarterback
in five games to settle for only one passing TD. The Raiders (Week
17) have been relatively stingy against quarterbacks given the
public perception of the team, only once permitting a signal-caller
to account for three scores (Patrick Mahomes). Mahomes is also
the only quarterback since Week 2 to throw for more than 222 yards
against Las Vegas.
One of the problems of recommending either Washington quarterback
is that we have no idea how long Mariota will remain in the lineup.
(Put another way, there is no guarantee Daniels returns this season.)
Mariota has been a serviceable replacement each time he has needed
to fill in for Daniels this year, but "serviceable"
during the fantasy playoffs is only good if the rest of your team
is playing up to its potential. The 32-year-old has started four
games in 2025; while he has accounted for two touchdowns in three
of them, he has topped out at 213 yards passing while averaging
less than 30 yards rushing.
Following the recent trades of Roger McCreary to the Rams and
Jarvis Brownlee to the Jets, the Titans (Week 15) have virtually
no one at cornerback left who scares offenses. Perhaps it is no
surprise then that the last three quarterbacks to face Tennessee
have each passed for at least 222 yards and two touchdowns. Two
of the three have even run for at least 57 yards (Drake Maye and
Justin Herbert). The Colts (Week 16) are a relatively tame "difficult"
matchup on paper in that they are giving up an average of 255
yards per game through the air. With that said, Indy figures to
be much more difficult in the near future once Sauce Gardner and
Charvarius Ward, who is near the end of an IR stint with a concussion
he suffered during warmups in Week 6, have played a few games
together. The Bears (Week 17) can put most of the blame on Jared
Goff (334 yards and five touchdowns in Week 2) and Joe Flacco
(470 yards and four touchdowns in Week 9) for their poor pass
defense numbers. However, the fact of the matter is that Dak Prescott
is the only somewhat established quarterback they have faced who
has scored less than 20 fantasy points.
The identity of the San Francisco quarterback next month comes
with less mystery than the Daniels/Mariota pairing above. Purdy
is expected to return to the starting lineup in Week 11. In case
there was any doubt about his job status, fantasy managers need
to remember Purdy just signed a five-year, $265 million contract
extension in the offseason. He has proven he can elevate the players
around him and the offense in general, so he isn't losing his
job anytime soon. The 49ers have not felt the need to rush him
back from his toe injury because Jones is playing well. However,
"playing well" over a 1 1/2-month stretch does not automatically
entitle a player to be handed the keys to the car when the owner
of the car has driven the car well for roughly 2 1/2 years.
Other quarterbacks of note with favorable playoff schedules
(who will be much harder to acquire): Daniel
Jones (Weeks 16 and 17), Jaxson
Dart (Week 15)
Running Backs
Since all starting running backs and most of their direct backups
are on fantasy rosters in most leagues (and have been for some
time), almost every player below will need to be acquired via
trade.
Once again, let's highlight the defenses that have been the most
favorable fantasy matchups, this time for running backs:
Of the 10 or so teams with the softest running back schedules
during the fantasy playoffs, here are the most realistic options
of the bunch (in the order I would prefer them over the rest of
the season):
Irving has practiced on a limited basis so far this week, so there
is a possibility we will see him as early as Week 11. The Falcons
(Week 15) were a good run defense on paper through five games,
but Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor were among the players
who proved Atlanta's lightweight front line could be exposed by
a power rushing attack during their four-game losing streak. Carolina
(Week 16) has generally been respectable against the run outside
of two games. With that said, the Panthers' offense lacks punch
(16 or fewer points in four straight), so it would not take much
for the Buccaneers to jump ahead early and give Irving enough
volume to make up for whatever lack of efficiency he might have
that day. The Dolphins (Week 17) have been a bit of a mixed bag
defensively, holding Taylor to 71 scoreless yards rushing in Week
1 and James Cook to 53 scoreless rushing yards in Week 10. Conversely,
there was a three-week stretch during which Rico Dowdle (206 rushing
yards and a touchdown), Kimani Vidal (124 rushing yards and a
receiving score) and Quinshon Judkins (84 rushing yards and three
TDs) each scored at least 22.8 fantasy points. What it shows is
that the Dolphins are capable of being a decent run defense, but
who knows what the mindset in Miami will be in Week 17?
Assuming Irving returns to action by Week 12, I would fully expect
him to return to being a bell-cow back well in advance of the
fantasy playoffs. While I understand it is a huge assumption that
roughly 25 percent of Irving-led teams have been able to remain
in the playoff chase this long without him (and those that have
will likely be reluctant to trade him based on how long they waited),
the truth of the matter is that his four healthy games this year
included touch totals of 18, 23, 29 and 20. White is once again
showing his efficiency declines in a big way when he sees too
much work. For whatever reason, it has taken until the last two
weeks for Tucker to see the kind of work he should have been getting
since Irving got hurt in Week 4. All this is to say that it should
not take long for Irving to return to a heavy workload. When he
does, he will not have to face the likes of the Texans and Eagles,
as he did in two of his final three games.
Especially based on the results of the last five weeks, Benson
should have the easiest road to glory of any running back during
the fantasy playoffs. One of the opponents during the stretch
(the Falcons) has been adversely affected by going up against
Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor over the last month, although
the case could be made that Atlanta had only faced one fantasy
stud over the first six weeks. Benson does not belong in the same
conversation as McCaffrey or Taylor, but that does not change
the fact that he should perform very well in late December.
The first matchup of the fantasy playoffs is not a great one,
as the Texans (Week 15) are holding running backs to less than
four yards per carry for the season and have yet to allow an individual
rusher to run for more than 71 yards. Only one running back (Irving,
121) has exceeded 77 total yards versus Houston, which is quite
amazing since the Texans have already faced Kyren Williams, Travis
Etienne (twice), Derrick Henry, McCaffrey and J.K. Dobbins. Since
I already discussed the Falcons (Week 16) at length above, I will
move right to the matchup that Benson's managers should be salivating
over. The Bengals (Week 17) have given up at least 16.7 PPR fantasy
points to the lead running back in every game so far. Five running
backs have rushed for more than 100 yards, while three of the
last four lead backs have scored at least 22.8 fantasy points.
The primary issue for Benson right now is returning to the field.
The team has yet to open the practice window for the second-year
running back, who was expected to miss 4-6 weeks following surgery
on his meniscus. Week 11 against San Francisco will mark seven
weeks since the injury happened. Perhaps the most frustrating
thing is how little information fantasy managers are getting on
the situation. HC Jonathan Gannon gave reporters an ever-helpful
nugget on Nov. 12 when he said that Benson is "taking it
day by day." (Thanks, coach.) At this point (and especially
with the Cardinals quickly fading out of the playoff race), there
is a chance that Benson does not come back. That outcome seems
unlikely, especially since Arizona needs to answer the question
of whether it needs to prioritize adding a complementary running
back in the offseason. A strong showing from Benson over the last
6-7 weeks of the season would make that a non-issue.
Technically, I could/should include Jordan Mason, but he appears
to be well behind Jones on HC Kevin O'Connell's priority list
right now. Unlike last season, Jones will need efficiency and
good matchups to thrive down the stretch because there has been
nothing to suggest he will see a lot of volume this year. Not
only has he topped out at 12 touches this year (in five games,
one of which he left early due to injury), but the Vikings have
also not given any running back 20 touches yet this year. For
the season, Minnesota running backs are splitting 22 touches per
game. Only the Commanders, Titans and Bengals are averaging less.
(Twelve teams are averaging at least 26 backfield touches and
six are averaging at least 28.) Unless one player is commanding
the backfield - which Jones is relatively close to doing at this
point - it is almost impossible for a running back to be a strong
fantasy contributor with so little opportunity.
The Cowboys (Week 15) have been the second-best matchup for running
backs this season - right ahead of the Giants. The trade deadline
acquisition of DT Quinnen Williams and LB Logan Wilson will undoubtedly
make Dallas a tougher defense to run on moving forward, but it
seems unlikely their arrivals alone will make the Cowboys even
a middling matchup for running backs. The Giants (Week 16) have
been eviscerated on the ground over the last three weeks, giving
up at least 80 rushing yards to the opposing lead back. Perhaps
to illustrate their struggles more profoundly, they have surrendered
an average of 174.3 rushing yards and 1.7 touchdowns to the running
back position over that time. The Lions (Week 17) are by no means
a great matchup, but Jones managed to post RB2 production in a
Week 9 upset in Detroit. This does not mean I would be thrilled
about counting on Jones in my fantasy championship, but it does
mean that he has already given us proof that he will not drag
down the rest of your lineup if it comes to that.
Let's be clear. Rodriguez would be a pure desperation play during
the fantasy playoffs given what we know at the moment. Still,
I hate myself for halfway recommending him, if only because Jacory
Croskey-Merritt is a superior talent and Rodriguez provides next
to nothing in the passing game. Nevertheless, Rodriguez appears
to be the preferred option in Washington right now. Croskey-Merritt's
biggest problem is that he is still an undisciplined runner and
has a long way to go to be a complete back, which is reflected
in the fact that he only has eight catches (on 12 targets) and
20 pass-blocking reps through 10 weeks despite not missing a game.
Maybe these shortcomings are less of an issue next year, but they
are unlikely to be corrected over the next month. Furthermore,
OC Kliff Kingsbury has leaned more on committee backfields during
his time as an NFL play-caller more often than not. With that
said, the best bet for a goal-line touchdown and 10-plus carries
in this backfield each week is Rodriguez - like it or not. He
started Week 10 and appeared to be on his way to becoming the
clear lead back (for now) before exiting the game for good with
a shoulder injury shortly after his 1-yard touchdown late in the
second quarter. He is reportedly expected to have "a
key role" in Week 11.
Let's make the dangerous assumption for now that Rodriguez remains
in the catbird's seat for the rest of the season and further assume
that his workloads will be more in line with the 12 carries he
received in Week 9. At any rate, I already discussed the Giants
(Week 15) and Cowboys (Week 17) in the previous section, so I
won't spend much time extolling the virtues of those matchups.
The Eagles (Week 16) are not quite as dominant defensively this
year as they were in 2024, but they are showing signs of improvement
lately and are unlikely to be a great matchup for anyone in this
offense across the board. Hopefully, your fantasy season does
not come down to deciding between Rodriguez, Croskey-Merritt or
another fringe option during the fantasy playoffs, but one can
make the case that Rodriguez could be flex-worthy in two of the
final three weeks of the fantasy season.
Other running backs of note with favorable playoff schedules
(who will be much harder to acquire): Saquon
Barkley (Weeks 16 and 17), De'Von
Achane (Weeks 15 and 16)
Doug Orth has served as an analyst for FF Today since 2006 and joined the Fantasy Points team before the start of the 2024 season. He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who has not experienced a losing money season in any of his 25 years in this hobby.