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Doug Orth | Archive | Email | Twitter
Staff Writer


The Big Boards - Version 3.0
Preseason Schedule Analysis
9/1/11

The season is near.

If this is the third version of my “Big Boards”, it must mean Week 1 is right around the corner. While the lockout figured to make this a difficult season to predict from the start, I must admit this year seems particularly tough, with more questions than ever, especially at the top of the draft. Can I count on Arian Foster playing all season long? Is this the year that Darren McFadden/Felix Jones/Jahvid Best will stay healthy? Will Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis fold late in the season due to unforgiving schedules? Will Rashard Mendenhall crumble due to his workload from last season? (I could go on…) On this topic, allow me to offer one bit of advice as you complete your drafts: be sure to not conveniently forget one player’s injury history while using another player’s injury history against him. For every player that is high on McFadden, there is at least 1-2 people who are scared off by the injury risk that Foster, Jones and Best present. (Foster played through a torn meniscus last year and Best finished in the top 20 RBs in PPR last season despite playing with turf toe in both feet!)

With all that said, I feel as good about my projections this year as I have in any year since I developed my PSA methodology four years ago, so my biggest concern now is the order I place these players in – a very important part of the job, if I say so myself. My first big money-league 12-team PPR draft will take place the same day this piece hits the site – I select at #10 in that one – so it goes without saying that I want to feel good about how I have the players stacked up. While I am very much a drafter that subscribes to the “let-the-draft-come-to-me” approach, the fact of the matter is that I have certain expectations about where I need to draft certain positions in order to field a championship team. Regardless, here are some of the questions I need to answer soon: 1) can I afford to take the early hit on Chris Johnson if he is still available with the hope that he’ll be healthy enough to take advantage of his schedule later on? and 2) can I afford to pass on Michael Vick or Aaron Rodgers should either player make it to my second-round pick, even though I would just as soon take Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford or Ben Roethlisberger a few rounds later? (I’ve seen Vick and Rodgers make it to the second round a number of times in big-money leagues drafts already.) Based on my research, a Johnson-McFadden duo is possible and a Johnson-Vick or Vick-McFadden is attainable. (Then again, at the rate the Foster story is moving, he might be available to me…we can dream anyway.)

While I ponder my own drafting questions, it’s time for me to start answering some of yours. As I have mentioned many times before over the years, "value" in drafting is key. Need has to outweigh value on occasion, but for the most part, it can't hurt to take the best player left on the board. And it is with both need and value in mind that I present my final "Big Board" of the season.

Before I get to the boards, though, I would like to remind each of my readers about a couple of key points:

1) my “Big Boards” are not going to look like many other draft boards you see. My method of evaluating fantasy players relies heavily on consistency and schedule, not on overall fantasy point totals. All too often, fantasy owners and even the so-called "experts" get hamstrung by the final numbers. Don't get me wrong, I want all my players to have 300+ points at the end of the season. But as the old saying goes, "It's not about the destination, it's about the journey"; if my RB1 gives me seven spectacular performances along with six duds during the regular season, there's a fairly decent chance I may end up 7-6. I don’t want that and neither should you.

2) I will push a player down my board if feel he is a health risk or if I simply don’t/can’t trust him. If you take the time to break down each position I provide below, you will notice that I don’t follow the point totals or averages to a tee. Outside of trust issues, I will push a player down my board – despite a higher average or overall point total – if I believe he will simply be less consistent throughout the season or if his playoff schedule appears treacherous. No, I don't claim to see the future, but history tells us that defenses like the Jets, Packers and Steelers (this year anyway) will end more fantasy championship dreams than they help.

***In an attempt to add another level of accuracy to my overall rankings this year, I have decided to quantify value on my Big Board. In short, the value that you will see below is based on the VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) concept for a two-RB, three-WR league with a flex spot, which allows me to essentially compare apples and oranges. At QB and TE, the value reflects the standard deviation from the 12th player at the position – the last starting-caliber player at the position. At RB and WR, the standard deviation is based on the 36th player at the position. The underlying assumption I took with using the 36th player at RB as my basis was that owners would prefer RBs as opposed to WRs or TEs at their flex spot. One last note to mention regarding the values – numbers that are bolded and italicized reflect positive values while the regular-print numbers are essentially negative. (For the more statistically-inclined, the former values are on the right side of the bell curve while the latter values are on the left of the bell curve.)

Let’s revisit the color-coding system before we start:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be considered in fantasy. For a second- or third-tier player, don’t expect much and drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform like an average player at his position.

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production from them in this matchup.

Grey – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, white matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. The stage is basically set for a player with a green matchup to exploit; it’s up to him to take advantage.

Blue – I’m using this color to highlight the 14 blue-chippers (or “foundation players” and “building blocks” as I like to call them) in the draft this year. These players, for all intents and purposes, should be the first ones off the board. Therefore, if you are selecting at pick #18 in your draft and Nicks or Vick is somehow still available, I would recommend that you take Nicks or Vick over any other remaining player.

Key:
OVR – Overall Rank
PR – Position Rank
FPts – Fantasy points scored
FPts/ G – Fantasy points/game
Value - Read *** above

Please note the “Pos” column in the two Big Boards below. In an effort to help drafters identify tiers within the Big Board, I have designated each player outside of the top 14 with specific labels (such as RB1 or WR4). As is the case with most of my work, I don’t necessarily work inside the confines of a 12-team league structure. If I feel there are 10 players worthy of being designated RB1s and four players worthy of RB2 status, it means owners would be wise to get their RBs quickly because the law of supply and demand is not working in your favor if you pass up a good RB. The “1/2” designation following a few of the positions below is my way of suggesting that said player is a capable “1” at his position assuming the other positions on your team are strong, but that his production is most suited for a “2”.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players:

 PPR Big Board
OVR PR Pos Player Tm Age Value FPts FPts/G 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 1 RB Arian Foster HOU 25 8.108 326 21.7
2 2 RB Ray Rice BAL 24 7.849 321 21.4
3 3 RB Adrian Peterson MIN 26 6.812 299 19.9
4 4 RB LeSean McCoy PHI 23 6.529 293 19.5
5 5 RB Darren McFadden OAK 24 8.267 264 22.0
6 6 RB Chris Johnson TEN 25 6.788 298 19.9
7 7 RB Jamaal Charles KC 24 6.670 296 19.7
8 1 WR Andre Johnson HOU 30 6.152 305 20.3
9 2 WR Larry Fitzgerald ARI 28 6.010 302 20.1
10 1 QB Aaron Rodgers GB 27 5.110 399 26.6
11 2 QB Michael Vick PHI 31 4.791 340 26.2
12 3 WR Calvin Johnson DET 25 5.916 300 20.0
13 4 WR Roddy White ATL 29 5.869 299 19.9
14 5 WR Hakeem Nicks NYG 23 5.586 293 19.5
15 8 RB1 Matt Forte CHI 25 5.845 278 18.5
16 6 WR1 Vincent Jackson SD 28 4.313 266 17.7
17 9 RB1 Jahvid Best DET 22 6.706 277 19.8
18 10 RB1 Peyton Hillis CLE 25 6.152 285 19.0
19 11 RB1/2 Felix Jones DAL 24 5.696 257 18.3
20 12 RB1/2 Rashard Mendenhall PIT 24 3.488 228 15.2
21 7 WR1 Mike Wallace PIT 25 3.630 252 16.8
22 8 WR1 Miles Austin DAL 27 3.889 257 17.1
23 9 WR1 Reggie Wayne IND 32 3.842 256 17.1
24 13 RB1/2 Maurice Jones-Drew JAC 26 4.761 255 17.0
25 14 RB1/2 Steven Jackson STL 28 3.913 237 15.8
26 15 RB1/2 Frank Gore SF 28 5.767 240 18.4
27 10 WR1 Greg Jennings GB 27 3.088 240 16.0
28 1 TE1 Antonio Gates SD 31 4.337 256 17.1
29 3 QB1 Drew Brees NO 32 2.819 351 23.4
30 4 QB1 Philip Rivers SD 29 2.692 348 23.2
31 5 QB1 Tom Brady NE 34 1.975 333 22.2
32 6 QB1 Peyton Manning IND 35 2.263 339 22.6
33 16 RB2 Michael Turner ATL 29 2.721 184 14.1
34 11 WR1/2 Brandon Marshall MIA 27 3.113 225 16.0
35 12 WR1/2 Percy Harvin MIN 23 3.088 240 16.0
36 13 WR1/2 Mario Manningham NYG 25 3.111 241 16.0
37 14 WR1/2 Wes Welker NE 30 2.785 218 15.6
38 15 WR1/2 Mike Williams TB 24 2.758 233 15.5
39 2 TE1 Jermichael Finley GB 24 4.263 221 17.0
40 16 WR1/2 Brandon Lloyd DEN 30 2.522 228 15.2
41 17 RB2 Mark Ingram NO 21 2.514 194 13.8
42 18 RB2 Knowshon Moreno DEN 24 3.044 204 14.6
43 19 RB2 Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 25 3.158 221 14.7
44 17 WR1/2 Santonio Holmes NYJ 27 2.451 227 15.1
45 18 WR2 Austin Collie IND 25 2.456 212 15.1
46 3 TE1 Dallas Clark IND 32 3.179 216 15.4
47 4 TE1 Jason Witten DAL 29 2.946 227 15.1
48 7 QB1 Tony Romo DAL 31 2.263 339 22.6
49 8 QB1 Matt Ryan ATL 26 1.937 332 22.1
50 20 RB3 Joseph Addai IND 28 3.891 205 15.8
51 19 WR2 Dwayne Bowe KC 26 2.239 222 14.8
52 20 WR2 DeSean Jackson PHI 24 2.052 204 14.5
53 21 RB3 Tim Hightower WAS 25 3.606 231 15.4
54 22 RB3 Shonn Greene NYJ 26 2.135 186 13.3
55 23 RB3 Chris Wells ARI 23 1.806 180 12.8
56 5 TE1 Vernon Davis SF 27 2.263 212 14.1
57 24 RB3 LeGarrette Blount TB 24 1.438 185 12.3
58 25 RB3 Reggie Bush MIA 26 4.000 207 15.9
59 26 RB3 DeAngelo Williams CAR 28 2.475 207 13.8
60 21 WR2 Anquan Boldin BAL 30 2.003 217 14.5
61 22 WR2 Steve Johnson BUF 25 1.933 216 14.4
62 23 WR2 Dez Bryant DAL 22 1.886 215 14.3
63 24 WR2 Jeremy Maclin PHI 23 1.673 210 14.0
64 25 WR2 Kenny Britt TEN 22 1.579 208 13.9
65 26 WR2 Julio Jones ATL 22 1.508 207 13.8
66 27 WR3 Marques Colston NO 28 2.348 165 15.0
67 27 RB3 Ryan Mathews SD 24 1.503 174 12.4
68 28 RB3 Cedric Benson CIN 28 1.179 179 11.9
69 6 TE1 Owen Daniels HOU 28 1.706 174 13.3
70 7 TE1 Jimmy Graham NO 24 1.579 198 13.2
71 28 WR3 Santana Moss WAS 32 1.391 204 13.6
72 29 RB3 Darren Sproles NO 28 1.391 184 12.2
73 30 RB3 Mike Tolbert SD 25 1.014 176 11.7
74 31 RB4 Willis McGahee DEN 29 0.071 156 10.4
75 32 RB4 Fred Jackson BUF 30 1.697 190 12.7
76 33 RB4 C.J. Spiller BUF 24 1.035 153 11.7
77 9 QB1 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 29 0.490 301 20.1
78 10 QB1 Matthew Stafford DET 23 0.575 283 20.2
79 29 WR3 A.J. Green CIN 23 0.896 194 12.9
80 30 WR3 Danny Amendola STL 25 0.754 191 12.7
81 34 RB4 Pierre Thomas NO 26 0.301 139 10.7
82 11 QB1/2 Matt Schaub HOU 30 0.061 292 19.5
83 35 RB4 Marshawn Lynch SEA 25 0.000 154 10.3
84 31 WR3 Nate Burleson DET 30 0.047 176 11.7
85 32 WR3 Pierre Garcon IND 25 0.057 164 11.7
86 33 WR3 Jacoby Ford OAK 24 0.212 179 11.9
87 34 WR3 Steve Smith CAR 32 0.071 176 11.7
88 8 TE1 Marcedes Lewis JAC 27 0.566 176 11.7
89 9 TE1 Jared Cook TEN 24 0.165 168 11.2
90 12 QB1/2 Josh Freeman TB 23 0.000 291 19.4
91 13 QB1/2 Eli Manning NYG 30 0.259 285 19.0
92 36 RB4 Danny Woodhead NE 26 0.094 152 10.1
93 37 RB4 Brandon Jacobs NYG 29 0.259 149 9.9
94 38 RB4 B. Green-Ellis NE 26 0.340 137 9.8
95 39 RB4 Ryan Grant GB 28 0.377 146 9.7
96 40 RB4 James Starks GB 25 0.433 126 9.7
97 14 QB1/2 Kevin Kolb ARI 27 0.302 284 19.0
98 41 RB4 Daniel Thomas MIA 23 0.401 163 10.8
99 10 TE1/2 Aaron Hernandez NE 21 0.079 152 10.8
100 11 TE1/2 Lance Kendricks STL 23 0.189 160 10.7
101 12 TE1/2 Kellen Winslow TB 28 0.000 164 10.9
102 13 TE1/2 Rob Gronkowski NE 22 0.377 156 10.4
103 42 RB4 Michael Bush OAK 27 0.566 142 9.5
104 43 RB4 Rashad Jennings JAC 26 1.367 125 8.3
105 44 RB4 Jonathan Stewart CAR 24 2.333 105 7.0
106 14 TE2 Brandon Pettigrew DET 26 0.684 150 10.0
107 15 TE2 Dustin Keller NYJ 26 0.542 153 10.2
108 16 TE2 Tony Gonzalez ATL 35 0.613 151 10.1
109 35 WR4 Chad Ochocinco NE 33 0.024 174 11.6
110 36 WR4 Mike Thomas JAC 24 0.024 174 11.6
111 45 RB4 Ben Tate HOU 23 3.135 70 5.8
112 14 TE1/2 Ben Watson CLE 30 0.094 166 11.1
113 37 WR4 Robert Meachem NO 26 0.000 175 11.6
114 15 QB2 Joe Flacco BAL 26 1.018 269 17.9
115 16 QB2 Sam Bradford STL 23 1.447 260 17.3
116 37 WR4 Lee Evans BAL 30 0.613 162 10.8
117 38 WR4 Davone Bess MIA 25 0.707 160 10.6
118 39 WR4 Lance Moore NO 28 0.966 154 10.3
119 40 WR4 Hines Ward PIT 35 0.801 158 10.5
120 17 QB2 Mark Sanchez NYJ 24 1.471 260 17.3
121 18 QB2 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 28 1.672 238 17.0
122 46 RB5 Roy Helu WAS 22 1.014 106 8.8
123 47 RB5 Jason Snelling ATL 27 1.084 131 8.7
124 48 RB5 Javon Ringer TEN 24 4.903 50 3.3
125 49 RB5 LaDainian Tomlinson NYJ 32 1.906 106 7.6
126 50 RB5 Ronnie Brown PHI 30 2.310 84 7.0
127 51 RB5 Marion Barber CHI 31 3.158 87 5.8
128 41 WR4 Plaxico Burress NYJ 34 0.949 124 10.3
129 42 WR4 Braylon Edwards SF 28 0.141 172 11.4
130 43 WR4 Michael Crabtree SF 23 0.259 169 11.3
131 15 TE2 Chris Cooley WAS 29 0.626 130 11.8
132 16 TE2 Greg Olsen CAR 26 0.519 153 10.2
133 17 TE2 Brent Celek PHI 26 0.424 155 10.3
134 44 WR5 Johnny Knox CHI 24 1.956 133 8.9
135 45 WR5 Roscoe Parrish BUF 29 0.047 117 11.7
136 46 WR5 Greg Little CLE 22 2.732 101 7.8
137 47 WR5 Roy Williams CHI 29 0.872 156 10.4
138 48 WR5 Jordy Nelson GB 26 1.296 147 9.8
139 19 QB2 Colt McCoy CLE 24 1.791 219 16.9
140 20 QB2 Jay Cutler CHI 28 2.164 245 16.3
141 18 TE2 Todd Heap ARI 31 0.714 129 9.9
142 19 TE2 Zach Miller SEA 25 0.849 146 9.7
143 20 TE2 Tony Moeaki KC 24 0.896 145 9.7
144 49 WR5 Malcom Floyd SD 29 1.660 130 9.3
145 50 WR5 Mike Sims-Walker STL 26 1.837 127 9.0
146 54 WR5 Harry Douglas ATL 26 1.980 133 8.8
147 52 WR5 Donald Driver GB 36 2.291 118 8.4
148 53 WR5 Bernard Berrian MIN 30 2.593 120 8.0
149 21 QB2 Donovan McNabb MIN 34 2.546 221 15.8
150 22 QB2 Jason Campbell OAK 29 2.588 236 15.7
151 23 QB2 John Beck WAS 30 2.873 199 15.3
152 24 QB2 Kyle Orton DEN 28 3.059 226 15.1
153 25 QB2 Matt Cassel KC 29 3.074 226 15.0
154 52 RB5 L. Stephens-Howling ARI 24 1.626 120 8.0
155 53 RB5 Justin Forsett SEA 25 1.744 117 7.8
156 54 RB5 Montario Hardesty CLE 24 2.271 64 7.1
157 55 RB5 Thomas Jones KC 33 2.899 93 6.2
158 56 RB5 Delone Carter IND 24 3.969 61 4.7
159 57 RB5 Stevan Ridley NE 22 3.518 64 5.3
160 58 RB5 Kendall Hunter SF 22 3.748 75 5.0
161 21 TE2 Fred Davis WAS 25 2.098 120 8.0
162 22 TE2 Julius Thomas DEN 23 2.640 108 7.2
163 52 WR5 Antonio Brown PIT 23 0.613 162 10.8
164 53 WR5 Jerome Simpson CIN 25 1.344 146 9.7
165 54 WR5 Sidney Rice SEA 25 1.508 143 9.5
166 55 WR5 Mike Williams SEA 27 1.508 143 9.5
167 23 TE2 Jermaine Gresham CIN 23 1.791 126 8.4
168 59 RB5 Ricky Williams BAL 34 4.031 69 4.6
169 56 WR5 Louis Murphy OAK 24 1.803 109 9.1
170 57 WR5 Jabar Gaffney WAS 30 2.593 120 8.0
171 26 QB2 Matt Hasselbeck TEN 35 3.211 193 14.8
172 58 WR5 Eddie Royal DEN 25 2.616 119 7.9
173 59 WR5 Mohamed Massaquoi CLE 24 2.310 126 8.4
174 60 WR5 Earl Bennett CHI 24 1.579 141 9.4
175 61 WR5 James Jones GB 27 1.838 136 9.0

Top 25: Let’s get right to the #1 overall pick debate: should you take Foster, Rice or Peterson at the top of the draft? It’s obvious by looking above who I prefer. But instead of looking at each player’s many strengths, let’s look at why each player could fail to live up to their draft position. While I would agree that Rice probably has the most going for him at the moment, the Ravens’ offensive line is far from settled. There’s also a pretty good chance he starts out slow (because of the schedule and the history of OC Cam Cameron’s RBs). If owners draft Rice with the idea that Foster may be limited early on, then they may be missing out on the scoring potential that Foster has in a good offense as the season progresses and his hamstring is 100%. Peterson probably represents the safest RB pick in this year’s drafts, but while he may push his career high in touches this season, he is arguably running behind his worst line in five years with the Vikings. And with a number of Vikings’ opponents sporting impressive offenses, will Minnesota be able to get AP the ball 15-20 times per game week in and week out? Finally, Foster’s warts are well-known at this point: his hamstring and the loss of FB Vonta Leach. Before owners get too preoccupied with Leach’s absence, understand that Foster had a slightly better average in one-back sets last year (5.3 YPC on 111 attempts) than he did out of the I-formation (4.9 YPC on 128 attempts). Now there isn’t a great deal I can do to ease your mind about his hamstring, but if it was as bad as the media is making it sound right now, would team doctors allow him to jog on it a couple of days after it happened?

McFadden isn’t really a player I want to like this year (three reds, including two in the last five weeks of the fantasy season), but I can’t seem to help myself. Unlike so many other offenses with amazing RBs, HC Hue Jackson and OC Al Saunders know their team’s best player is McFadden. They also know he is the team’s best receiver. So considering the downside (at least three missed games in each of his first three seasons), is his durability more of a question than Chris Johnson’s holdout? It’s unrealistic to believe Johnson will carry the ball 20+ times in Week 1 even though his holdout is over. Just about every holdout of this length seems to end up with a hamstring or knee injury, so I consider Johnson as much of an injury risk now as I do McFadden.

As much as it pains me, I don’t want Jamaal Charles on my team during the second half of the season. Not only do I not trust HC Todd Haley or the offense minus Charlie Weis, but I also don’t know how he maintains RB1 status through the five-week stretch late in the season (Weeks 11-15) where the Chiefs face New England, Pittsburgh, Chicago, NY Jets and Green Bay. His ability as a receiver should save him from face-planting, but expecting elite numbers during that time would be foolish. If you must select him, start looking to deal him around Kansas City’s Week 6 bye since he will have yet to face an opponent who should put the clamps on him. At that point, he may have earned enough “consistency points” from fellow owners to swap him for another RB1.

26-50: Shortly after last week’s Big Board, I took a closer look at Matt Ryan. It seems as though he posted a 3,706-28-9 line as a passer in 2010. (Look for yourself.) Despite less than stellar options from the time he joined the franchise – Roddy White was just starting to establish himself as a top receiver when the QB was a rookie – Ryan has increased his TD total by six each season he has been in the league. While I’m not going to say he will throw 34 this year, I will say it is very possible he does and he’ll probably exceed 4,000 yards passing for the first time in his career as well, considering how much OC Mike Mularkey is putting on his plate this year. In addition to running the no-huddle with regularity, Ryan is checking in and out of plays in much the same way Peyton Manning has for years. But my biggest reason to believe he will join the elite QBs this season is his supporting cast. Julio Jones is already more Roddy White than Michael Jenkins and he’s only going to get better while Harry Douglas will likely emerge as one of the best slot receivers in the league this year if he can stay healthy.

Those of us who write about fantasy football often suffer from the same prejudices as the typical owner, especially when it comes to injuries. When the player isn’t flashy, he gets knocked down even more. Such is the fate of Joseph Addai, who is about as likely to make the highlight reel as he is to play 16 games. The problem with disrespecting Addai is that when plays, he produces. Since the start of the 2009 season, Addai has posted 18 double-digit fantasy-point games in PPR leagues (in 22 chances) during the fantasy regular season (Weeks 1-16). In a perfect world, his durability issues would make him a fantasy RB3 at best. But given that he’s good for another 200-carry, 40-catch season in the Colts’ offense if he can last the season and all the question marks or time-shares on the board around him, owners should feel very fortunate to land him as a flex or low-end RB2. When he plays, he has shown he will put up the numbers.

51-100: Every so often, a player comes along that owners neither want on their team nor do they want any other owner to draft. That player this year is Kenny Britt. Undeniably talented and unquestionably the lead WR in Tennessee, Britt is the prototypical red-flag player that owners want to embrace even if they find his off-field decision-making a bit troubling. Britt should get the chance to reward his owners with 2-3 WR1 games this fall and a lot of WR2 production when the offense concentrates more on running the ball. Much like I alluded to with Addai above, Britt would be a WR3 in a perfect world, but when he is healthy and away from the courthouse (yes, that is a legitimate concern), he’ll likely meet and/or exceed your expectations.

A recent e-mailer stated that Lance Kendricks was “my boy”. I’m not sure I’m crazy about being associated with a rookie TE, but it is hard to ignore just how easily Kendricks is getting open this summer and how often Sam Bradford is looking for him. Drafted to play the Aaron Hernandez role in OC Josh McDaniels’ offense, Kendricks could very well end up playing the role of Brandon Lloyd in that he emerges as the unlikely go-to option in this offense. Certainly, I expect Danny Amendola to lead the team in receptions and Mike Sims-Walker to play a key role as well, but Kendricks will create the most mismatches each week and I expect Bradford to be able to exploit them.

101-175: Rashad Jennings’ stock could be spiraling soon if his knee injury turns out to be serious (he was seen leaving last week’s preseason game on crutches). If speculation of Jennings going on the PUP list turns out to be true, it means Jones-Drew is probably worth taking in the first round again. Furthermore, if Jennings must sit, owners need to get familiar with Deji Karim, who is more LaRod Stephens-Howling to Jennings’ Ryan Williams (for those owners who don’t see a lot of the Jaguars. Karim is “more of a specialty back” as GM Gene Smith said back in May, but for a team that likes to run the ball as much as Jacksonville does, Karim would likely see enough work to make him worthy of a roster spot in deeper fantasy leagues.

My selection of Antonio Brown is really more of a combo pick. While I understand no league will allow you to take two players with one pick just because they are fighting for the same spot on their team, allow me to explain. Brown has done everything the Steelers’ coaching staff could have expected this preseason and figures to enter Week 1 as Pittsburgh’s third receiver. However, Emmanuel Sanders is the more refined route-runner and offers the same kind of explosiveness Brown does. Therefore, if you’re an owner who believes Brown has a shot to hold the job because of his preseason performance and that Sanders won’t stay healthy, draft Brown. But if you believe in playing the percentages and rolling with the better overall receiver, select Sanders. I expect Sanders to start slow, but to come on and push Hines Ward for Big Ben’s attention by the end of the season.

 Non-PPR Big Board
OVR PR Pos Player Tm Age Value FPts FPts/G 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 1 RB Arian Foster HOU 25 6.723 273 18.2
2 2 RB Adrian Peterson MIN 26 5.804 254 16.9
3 3 RB Ray Rice BAL 24 5.709 252 16.8
4 4 RB Darren McFadden OAK 24 6.434 214 17.8
5 5 RB Chris Johnson TEN 25 5.356 244 16.3
6 6 RB Jamaal Charles KC 24 5.285 243 16.2
7 1 QB Aaron Rodgers GB 27 5.110 399 26.6
8 2 QB Michael Vick PHI 31 4.791 340 26.2
9 1 WR Calvin Johnson DET 25 4.879 214 14.3
10 7 RB LeSean McCoy PHI 23 4.484 226 15.0
11 2 WR Larry Fitzgerald ARI 28 4.313 202 13.5
12 3 WR Roddy White ATL 29 4.313 202 13.5
13 4 WR Hakeem Nicks NYG 23 4.313 202 13.5
14 5 WR Andre Johnson HOU 30 4.172 199 13.3
15 8 RB1 Peyton Hillis CLE 25 4.484 226 15.0
16 9 RB1 Matt Forte CHI 25 4.130 218 14.5
17 10 RB1/2 Jahvid Best DET 22 4.940 220 15.7
18 6 WR1 Vincent Jackson SD 28 3.842 192 12.8
19 11 RB1/2 Frank Gore SF 28 3.943 186 14.3
20 12 RB1/2 Felix Jones DAL 24 3.930 200 14.3
21 13 RB1/2 Maurice Jones-Drew JAC 26 3.565 206 13.7
22 14 RB1/2 Rashard Mendenhall PIT 24 3.282 200 13.3
23 15 RB1/2 Steven Jackson STL 28 2.763 189 12.6
24 1 TE1 Antonio Gates SD 31 3.458 177 11.8
25 7 WR1 Mike Wallace PIT 25 3.111 177 11.8
26 8 WR1 Miles Austin DAL 27 2.946 173 11.5
27 3 QB1 Drew Brees NO 32 2.819 351 23.4
28 4 QB1 Philip Rivers SD 29 2.692 348 23.2
29 5 QB1 Tom Brady NE 34 1.975 333 22.2
30 9 WR1 Greg Jennings GB 27 2.663 167 11.1
31 10 WR1 Reggie Wayne IND 32 2.711 168 11.2
32 16 RB1/2 Michael Turner ATL 29 3.182 172 13.2
33 17 RB2 Joseph Addai IND 28 2.720 163 12.5
34 18 RB2 Mark Ingram NO 21 2.617 174 12.4
35 19 RB2 Knowshon Moreno DEN 24 2.541 172 12.3
36 20 RB2 Shonn Greene NYJ 26 2.541 172 12.3
37 11 WR1/2 Percy Harvin MIN 23 2.522 164 10.9
38 12 WR2 DeSean Jackson PHI 24 2.342 150 10.7
39 13 WR2 Mike Williams TB 24 2.239 158 10.5
40 14 WR2 Brandon Marshall MIA 27 2.190 147 10.5
41 15 WR2 Mario Manningham NYG 25 2.828 171 11.4
42 6 QB1 Peyton Manning IND 35 2.263 339 22.6
43 7 QB1 Tony Romo DAL 31 2.263 339 22.6
44 2 TE1 Jermichael Finley GB 24 3.137 148 11.3
45 16 WR2 Brandon Lloyd DEN 30 1.956 152 10.1
46 21 RB2 Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 25 2.339 180 12.0
47 22 RB2 Chris Wells ARI 23 2.061 163 11.6
48 23 RB2 LeGarrette Blount TB 24 2.032 174 11.6
49 24 RB2 DeAngelo Williams CAR 28 2.221 178 11.8
50 25 RB2 Tim Hightower WAS 25 2.410 182 12.1
51 3 TE1 Dallas Clark IND 32 2.034 137 9.8
52 17 WR2 Santonio Holmes NYJ 27 1.838 150 10.0
53 18 WR2 Marques Colston NO 28 1.894 111 10.0
54 19 WR2 Dwayne Bowe KC 26 1.862 150 10.0
55 26 RB3 Reggie Bush MIA 26 2.121 152 11.7
56 8 QB1 Matt Ryan ATL 26 1.937 332 22.1
57 19 WR2 Julio Jones ATL 22 1.697 147 9.8
58 20 WR2 Kenny Britt TEN 22 1.626 145 9.7
59 21 WR2 Steve Johnson BUF 25 1.603 145 9.6
60 22 WR2 Dez Bryant DAL 22 1.461 142 9.4
61 27 RB3 Ryan Mathews SD 24 1.455 151 10.8
62 28 RB3 Cedric Benson CIN 28 1.302 158 10.5
63 29 RB3 Mike Tolbert SD 25 0.665 145 9.6
64 4 TE1 Jason Witten DAL 29 1.643 139 9.2
65 5 TE1 Vernon Davis SF 27 1.526 136 9.1
66 9 QB1 Matthew Stafford DET 23 0.575 283 20.2
67 10 QB1 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 29 0.490 301 20.1
68 23 WR3 Austin Collie IND 25 1.382 131 9.3
69 24 WR3 Anquan Boldin BAL 30 1.344 139 9.3
70 25 WR3 Jeremy Maclin PHI 23 1.202 136 9.1
71 6 TE1 Jimmy Graham NO 24 1.361 133 8.8
72 7 TE1 Owen Daniels HOU 28 1.288 114 8.7
73 30 RB3 B. Green-Ellis NE 26 0.470 131 9.4
74 31 RB3 Willis McGahee DEN 29 0.288 137 9.1
75 32 RB3 Brandon Jacobs NYG 29 0.430 140 9.3
76 26 WR3 Wes Welker NE 30 1.407 131 9.4
77 11 QB1/2 Matt Schaub HOU 30 0.061 292 19.5
78 26 WR3 A.J. Green CIN 23 1.084 134 8.9
79 33 RB3 Fred Jackson BUF 30 1.349 159 10.6
80 34 RB3 Pierre Thomas NO 26 0.000 113 8.7
81 35 RB3 James Starks GB 25 0.136 111 8.5
82 36 RB3 Michael Bush OAK 27 0.442 121 8.1
83 27 WR3 Santana Moss WAS 32 0.684 125 8.3
84 28 WR3 Pierre Garcon IND 25 0.549 114 8.1
85 29 WR3 Jacoby Ford OAK 24 0.495 121 8.1
86 37 RB4 Ryan Grant GB 28 0.065 129 8.6
87 38 RB4 C.J. Spiller BUF 24 0.299 119 9.1
88 39 RB4 Daniel Thomas MIA 23 0.147 134 8.9
89 40 RB4 Marshawn Lynch SEA 25 0.207 126 8.4
90 41 RB4 Jonathan Stewart CAR 24 1.644 96 6.4
91 8 TE1 Marcedes Lewis JAC 27 0.441 113 7.5
92 9 TE1 Rob Gronkowski NE 22 0.206 108 7.2
93 10 TE1 Lance Kendricks STL 23 0.111 106 7.1
94 11 TE1 Jared Cook TEN 24 0.088 106 7.0
95 30 WR3 Nate Burleson DET 30 0.000 111 7.4
96 31 WR3 Lee Evans BAL 30 0.000 111 7.4
97 12 QB1/2 Josh Freeman TB 23 0.000 291 19.4
98 32 WR3 Chad Ochocinco NE 33 0.212 115 7.7
99 13 QB1/2 Eli Manning NYG 30 0.259 285 19.0
100 14 QB1/2 Kevin Kolb ARI 27 0.302 284 19.0
101 33 WR4 Robert Meachem NO 26 0.471 121 8.0
102 34 WR4 Steve Smith CAR 32 0.259 116 7.7
103 42 RB4 Darren Sproles NO 28 0.419 122 8.1
104 43 RB4 Danny Woodhead NE 26 0.914 111 7.4
105 44 RB4 Rashad Jennings JAC 26 1.338 102 6.8
106 15 QB2 Joe Flacco BAL 26 1.018 269 17.9
107 16 QB2 Sam Bradford STL 23 1.447 260 17.3
108 12 TE2 Kellen Winslow TB 28 0.030 103 6.9
109 13 TE2 Aaron Hernandez NE 21 0.062 96 6.8
110 14 TE2 Ben Watson CLE 30 0.077 102 6.8
111 35 WR4 Braylon Edwards SF 28 0.424 120 8.0
112 17 QB2 Mark Sanchez NYJ 24 1.471 260 17.3
113 18 QB2 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 28 1.672 238 17.0
114 45 RB4 Jason Snelling ATL 27 1.857 91 6.1
115 36 WR4 Michael Crabtree SF 23 0.212 106 7.1
116 37 WR4 Plaxico Burress NYJ 34 0.348 83 6.9
117 38 WR4 Mike Thomas JAC 24 0.401 102 6.8
118 45 RB4 Marion Barber CHI 31 2.705 73 4.9
119 46 RB4 Thomas Jones KC 33 2.352 81 5.4
120 47 RB4 Ben Tate HOU 23 2.611 60 5.0
121 48 RB4 Ronnie Brown PHI 30 2.139 68 5.7
122 19 QB2 Colt McCoy CLE 24 1.791 219 16.9
123 20 QB2 Jay Cutler CHI 28 2.164 245 16.3
124 21 QB2 Donovan McNabb MIN 34 2.546 221 15.8
125 39 WR4 Donald Jones BUF 23 0.424 102 6.8
126 40 WR4 Danny Amendola STL 25 0.424 102 6.8
127 41 WR4 Hines Ward PIT 35 0.519 100 6.6
128 42 WR4 Johnny Knox CHI 24 0.731 95 6.3
129 43 WR4 Roscoe Parrish BUF 29 0.047 73 7.3
130 44 WR4 Lance Moore NO 28 0.872 92 6.1
131 45 WR4 Davone Bess MIA 25 0.943 91 6.0
132 49 RB5 LaDainian Tomlinson NYJ 32 2.510 72 5.1
133 50 RB5 Stevan Ridley NE 22 2.935 55 4.5
134 51 RB5 Ricky Williams BAL 34 3.342 60 4.0
135 52 RB5 Delone Carter IND 24 3.345 52 4.0
136 53 RB5 Kendall Hunter SF 22 3.483 57 3.8
137 54 RB5 Javon Ringer TEN 24 4.355 38 2.5
138 15 TE2 Dustin Keller NYJ 26 0.478 94 6.2
139 16 TE2 Brandon Pettigrew DET 26 0.525 93 6.2
140 17 TE2 Tony Gonzalez ATL 35 0.596 91 6.1
141 46 WR4 Jordy Nelson GB 26 0.731 95 6.3
142 47 WR5 Sidney Rice SEA 25 0.801 94 6.2
143 18 TE2 Greg Olsen CAR 26 0.454 94 6.3
144 19 TE2 Todd Heap ARI 31 0.316 84 6.5
145 20 TE2 Chris Cooley WAS 29 0.000 76 6.9
146 48 WR5 Greg Little CLE 22 1.945 60 4.6
147 49 WR5 Harry Douglas ATL 26 1.037 89 5.9
148 50 WR5 Mike Sims-Walker STL 26 1.093 82 5.8
149 51 WR5 Louis Murphy OAK 24 1.025 71 5.9
150 52 WR5 Antonio Brown PIT 23 0.000 111 7.4
151 53 WR5 Malcom Floyd SD 29 0.663 90 6.4
152 22 QB2 Jason Campbell OAK 29 2.588 236 15.7
153 23 QB2 Kyle Orton DEN 28 3.059 226 15.1
154 54 WR5 Roy Williams CHI 29 0.589 98 6.5
155 55 WR5 Jerome Simpson CIN 25 0.636 97 6.5
156 21 TE2 Brent Celek PHI 26 0.313 97 6.5
157 55 RB5 L. Stephens-Howling ARI 24 2.163 85 5.6
158 56 RB5 Justin Forsett SEA 25 2.234 83 5.5
159 24 QB2 Matt Cassel KC 29 3.074 226 15.0
160 25 QB2 John Beck WAS 30 2.873 199 15.3
161 57 RB5 Jamie Harper TEN 21 5.039 24 1.6
162 58 RB5 Leon Washington SEA 29 3.436 58 3.8
163 59 RB5 Isaac Redman PIT 26 4.402 37 2.5
164 56 WR5 James Jones GB 27 0.849 93 6.2
165 60 RB5 Earnest Graham TB 31 3.601 54 3.6
166 22 TE2 Tony Moeaki KC 24 0.643 90 6.0
167 23 TE2 Zach Miller SEA 25 0.643 90 6.0
168 24 TE2 Fred Davis WAS 25 0.949 84 5.6
169 25 TE2 Julius Thomas DEN 23 1.491 72 4.8
170 57 WR5 Bernard Berrian MIN 30 1.367 82 5.4
171 58 WR5 Andre Roberts ARI 23 1.744 74 4.9
172 59 WR5 Donald Driver GB 36 1.497 74 5.3
173 26 TE2 Jermaine Gresham CIN 23 1.209 78 5.2
174 57 WR5 Earl Bennett CHI 24 1.249 84 5.6
175 58 WR5 Mohamed Massaquoi CLE 24 1.179 86 5.7

Top 25: Fantasy football owners can be an odd bunch. We want all our RBs to fly past 300 carries every year we own them, but we don’t want them to go too far past that mark or we don’t want them the year (or years) after for fear they may break down. And for all of those owners who subscribe to the “curse of 370”, there is reason to move Rashard Mendenhall down the board a bit. To be fair, the “curse” is usually only applied to players who accumulate that number of carries during the regular season, but it is worth noting that Mendenhall ended up with 385 carries for the season in 2010 (including 61 over three playoff games). Add in 27 more touches as a receiver and Mendenhall accumulated 412 touches last season. At 24 years of age, he can probably shoulder another heavy workload or two over the rest of his career, but the Steelers’ burgeoning aerial attack may be another reason for owners to pass on Mendenhall.

As big of a fan as I am of Maurice Jones-Drew, I’m not sure I want to pay a first-round price for him. Some will point to the stability of his knee, although I tend to believe Rashad Jennings poses a bigger threat. (Or at least he did until last weekend.) Regardless, I’m not a big fan of the three reds on his pre-bye schedule, so any kind of significant splitting of the backfield touches is not something I want to invest in this season. However, he does make for a potentially nice second-half target since his schedule lightens up after the bye, when we should have a better feel as to how hard Jacksonville wants to ride its top playmaker.

26-50: I suppose most people’s natural inclination of seeing Michael Turner’s drop from last week’s Big Board to this one will be one of an overreaction to Matt Ryan’s 42 pass attempts in the first half of the preseason game vs. the Steelers. Truth be told, I tend to believe the Falcons used that game to show they will be a matchup-offense this season. In previous seasons, there is no way Mularkey would have dialed up that many pass plays in a game or let Matt Ryan run the no-huddle to the degree he did. However, with the offensive weapons the Falcons have now, there is no reason to pound Turner against the league’s best run defenses when their QB has at least four scary-good options in the passing game on just about every play.

At first glance, I feel my projection of 1,000+ rushing yards is a bit high for Mark Ingram, but why can’t he hit that mark with a 4.5 yards/carry average, which is easily attainable with his offensive line and the fact that he will rarely ever face a defense focused on keeping him under control while letting Drew Brees throw the ball all over the field. Assuming I’m right with his rushing yardage and YPC projection, he would only need 235 carries (or an average of 15.7 carries over 15 games) to get there.

51-100: In my latest NFC projections, I wrote how Chris “Beanie” Wells was running like he was back in college. I could have easily said he was running like he was at the end of his rookie season. There are still serious flaws in his game – he doesn’t expect the ball to be thrown to him in the passing game and doesn’t have the greatest hands when he is the target – but as a runner this preseason, he looks healthy and confident. I’m not saying I’d be thrilled if he was an every-week starter for me, but if I’m solid at RB1 and my first two WR spots, I can make the case for Wells at RB2. In non-PPR, where his hands don’t cost him as much, he should be a solid but unspectacular option as long as he stays healthy.

Few players have shot up my Big Board more in the past two weeks than Willis McGahee. Much like Mike Tolbert in San Diego, it’s not unreasonable to think the designated goal-line back with semi-regular work outside the red zone will outperform his higher-drafted teammate. Unlike Tolbert, I don’t expect McGahee to be all that active in the passing game, but Denver will run the ball and play better defense than it has in the recent past. Those two factors alone should guarantee him at least 500 yards rushing and five scores, but as you can tell from my recent AFC projections, I have him doing a bit more than that.

101-175: It’s generally not my style to suggest that any team’s fourth WR is more valuable than the supposed top receiver. Then again, not many teams also have their second-best receiver as the third player on their depth chart. In short, Roy Williams (the supposed top receiver) came to camp out of shape and has generally looked pretty bad this preseason. Devin Hester (still far from a complete receiver) is running opposite him while Earl Bennett is running third and Johnny Knox fourth. OC Mike Martz has stated the slot receiver is the “premiere receiver on third down”, so at least Chicago has one assignment in their WR depth chart right with Bennett. Knox is reportedly pushing Williams for his spot in the lineup now, this just over a month after Martz stated Williams was still “an elite player”. As a result, view Knox as the Bears WR to own and be patient. He should be worth starting in most leagues no later than Week 3 or 4, if not before.

Another situation that owners need to be patient with exists in Cleveland, where rookie Greg Little is running with the second team. The likelihood Brian Robiskie holds on to a starting job over Little all season is slim, especially since the West Coast offense calls for receivers who can chew up yards after the catch – something Little was drafted to do and Robiskie has rarely ever shown he is capable of doing. Little has WR3 upside in 12-team leagues this season, but he has some work to do on the basics of the game before that happens, especially after sitting out last season. The odds are against him enjoying a great rookie season, but the talent is there for him to contribute in fantasy in 2011, even if it is on a highly inconsistent basis.

Note: As opposed to placing kickers and defense/special teams units in my Big Board, I will let you – the fantasy owner – decide at what point you should select your kicker and defense, although I don’t mind grabbing my defense in the 12th or 13th round of a 16-round draft when I feel really good about the team I have drafted to that point and the schedule suggests there is a team that is in line to have an incredible year on defense.

 Kickers
Pos Player Tm Age Avg Tot XP FG
K Alex Henery PHI 24 9.7 146 50 32
K Neil Rackers HOU 35 8.7 130 46 28
K Nate Kaeding SD 29 8.5 128 40 26
K Garrett Hartley NO 25 8.2 123 51 24
K Mason Crosby GB 26 8.1 122 53 23
K Stephen Gostkowski NE 27 8.1 121 46 25
K Matt Bryant ATL 36 7.9 119 47 24
K Shaun Suisham PIT 29 7.7 115 40 25
K Lawrence Tynes NYG 33 7.6 114 45 23
K Adam Vinatieri NE 38 7.5 113 47 22
K Josh Brown STL 32 7.4 111 33 26
K Jason Hanson DET 41 7.4 111 45 22
K David Buehler DAL 24 7.3 110 44 22
K Billy Cundiff BAL 31 7.3 110 38 24
K Rob Bironas TEN 33 6.9 104 32 24
K Sebastian Janikowski OAK 33 6.9 104 35 23
K Nick Folk NYJ 26 6.8 102 36 22
K Jay Feely ARI 35 6.8 102 39 21
K Rian Lindell BUF 34 6.8 102 39 21
K Josh Scobee JAC 29 6.7 101 38 21
K Connor Barth TB 25 6.7 101 35 22
K Ryan Succop KC 24 6.7 101 32 23
K Phil Dawson CLE 36 6.7 101 35 22
K Mike Nugent CIN 29 6.7 100 28 24
K Dan Carpenter MIA 25 6.7 100 28 24
K Ryan Longwell MIN 37 6.7 100 40 20
K Matt Prater DEN 27 6.5 97 37 20
K Robbie Gould CHI 29 6.5 97 34 21
K David Akers SF 36 6.4 96 30 22
K Jeff Reed SEA 32 6.4 96 27 23
K Graham Gano WAS 24 6.3 95 29 22
K Olindo Mare CAR 38 6.1 92 29 21

And now, the defense/special teams rankings…

Key:
FPts – Total fantasy points scored
PA – Actual points allowed
Sk – Sacks
TD – Defensive/special teams touchdowns
Bon – Total bonus for holding opponent under point benchmarks

 Defense/Special Teams
Pos Player Fpts/G FPts PA Sk TO TD Bon 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
DST Packers DST 11.0 165 261 46 62 30 27
DST Steelers DST 9.9 148 236 47 52 18 31
DST Eagles DST 9.3 140 328 44 58 30 8
DST Saints DST 9.1 136 289 38 58 24 16
DST Jets DST 9.1 136 234 36 56 12 32
DST Giants DST 9.0 135 305 46 54 24 11
DST Ravens DST 8.7 131 281 36 48 30 17
DST Bears DST 8.7 130 297 40 52 24 14
DST Patriots DST 8.6 129 275 33 58 24 14
DST Chargers DST 8.3 124 318 40 44 30 10
DST Falcons DST 8.2 123 304 36 56 18 13
DST Colts DST 7.9 119 316 34 50 24 11
DST Cardinals DST 7.8 117 335 38 50 24 5
DST Lions DST 7.7 116 370 37 52 30 -3
DST Chiefs DST 7.6 114 305 34 50 18 12
DST Texans DST 7.5 112 324 37 44 24 7
DST Cowboys DST 7.4 111 310 36 46 18 11
DST Rams DST 7.3 110 310 35 48 18 9
DST Broncos DST 7.0 105 354 40 46 18 1
DST Dolphins DST 6.9 104 338 34 40 24 6
DST Bucs DST 6.9 103 346 32 48 18 5
DST Vikings DST 6.8 102 367 35 42 24 1
DST Raiders DST 6.6 99 388 38 42 24 -5
DST Redskins DST 6.3 95 347 31 44 18 2
DST Titans DST 6.3 94 339 33 38 18 5
DST Seahawks DST 5.9 89 356 32 44 12 1
DST Bengals DST 5.8 87 346 27 44 12 4
DST Bills DST 5.7 86 401 26 44 24 -8
DST Panthers DST 5.6 84 410 30 48 12 -6
DST Browns DST 5.6 84 358 28 42 12 2
DST 49ers DST 5.5 83 365 29 40 12 2
DST Jaguars DST 5.3 79 388 23 38 18 0

Suggestions, comments, musings about the article or fantasy football in general? E-mail me.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each of the last two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football analyst for 106.7 The Fan in Washington, D.C. this past season. He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can also follow him on Twitter.