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Doug Orth | Archive | Email | Twitter
Staff Writer


The Big Boards - Version 2.0
Preseason Schedule Analysis
8/20/11

Change is inevitable. As much as fantasy owners hate this little bit of wisdom, it takes only a missed tackle or blown assignment in some cases to drastically alter a player’s value. Over the long term, however, fantasy value is usually established by consistency and, in the case of the elite players, consistent greatness.

The reason I decided to briefly discuss change just a few days after my first Big Board is because you will see a great deal of it below. In just one week, my opinion on a number of players has changed, almost to the point where one might question how it is possible that some players’ values could be so volatile. And there is more to come. Sometimes, value changes based on a tidbit of new information or another review of the schedule. This year, thanks to the wonderful creation known as DVR, I have been able to watch every pretty much each snap in which a significant fantasy player was involved. The biggest challenge, however, will be this week as we approach the third game of the preseason – the now-famous “dress rehearsal” week – so expect more fluctuation next week.

As I have mentioned many times before over the years, "value" in drafting is key. Need has to outweigh value on occasion, but for the most part, it can't hurt to take the best player left on the board. And it is with both need and value in mind that I present my "Big Board" in an attempt to earn both the respect and envy of your fellow fantasy leaguers in 2011.

Before I get to the boards, though, I would like to remind each of my readers about a couple of key points:

1) my “Big Boards” are not going to look like many other draft boards you see. My method of evaluating fantasy players relies heavily on consistency and schedule, not on overall fantasy point totals. All too often, fantasy owners and even the so-called "experts" get hamstrung by the final numbers. Don't get me wrong, I want all my players to have 300+ points at the end of the season. But as the old saying goes, "It's not about the destination, it's about the journey"; if my RB1 gives me seven spectacular performances along with six duds during the regular season, there's a fairly decent chance I may end up 7-6. I don’t want that and neither should you.

2) I will push a player down my board if feel he is a health risk or if I simply don’t/can’t trust him. If you take the time to break down each position I provide below, you will notice that I don’t follow the point totals or averages to a tee. Outside of trust issues, I will push a player down my board – despite a higher average or overall point total – if I believe he will simply be less consistent throughout the season or if his playoff schedule appears treacherous. No, I don't claim to see the future, but history tells us that defenses like the Jets, Packers and Steelers (this year anyway) will end more fantasy championship dreams than they help.

***In an attempt to add another level of accuracy to my overall rankings this year, I have decided to quantify value on my Big Board. In short, the value that you will see below is based on the VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) concept for a two-RB, three-WR league with a flex spot, which allows me to essentially compare apples and oranges. At QB and TE, the value reflects the standard deviation from the 12th player at the position – the last starting-caliber player at the position. At RB and WR, the standard deviation is based on the 36th player at the position. The underlying assumption I took with using the 36th player at RB as my basis was that owners would prefer RBs as opposed to WRs or TEs at their flex spot. One last note to mention regarding the values – numbers that are bolded and italicized reflect positive values while the regular-print numbers are essentially negative. (For the more statistically-inclined, the former values are on the right side of the bell curve while the latter values are on the left of the bell curve.)

Let’s revisit the color-coding system before we start:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be considered in fantasy. For a second- or third-tier player, don’t expect much and drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform like an average player at his position.

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production from them in this matchup.

Grey – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, white matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. The stage is basically set for a player with a green matchup to exploit; it’s up to him to take advantage.

Key:
OVR – Overall Rank
PR – Position Rank
FPts – Fantasy points scored
FPts/ G – Fantasy points/game
Value - Read *** above

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players:

 PPR Big Board
OVR PR Pos Player Tm Age Value FPts FPts/G 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 1 RB Arian Foster HOU 25 8.493 329 21.9
2 2 RB Ray Rice BAL 24 8.445 328 21.9
3 3 RB Jamaal Charles KC 24 8.021 319 21.3
4 4 RB Adrian Peterson MIN 26 7.597 310 20.7
5 5 RB LeSean McCoy PHI 23 6.560 288 19.2
6 6 RB Chris Johnson (Holdout) TEN 25 7.361 305 20.3
7 1 WR Andre Johnson HOU 30 6.105 305 20.3
8 2 WR Larry Fitzgerald ARI 28 5.963 302 20.1
9 3 WR Calvin Johnson DET 25 5.869 300 20.0
10 1 QB Aaron Rodgers GB 27 4.855 393 26.2
11 2 QB Michael Vick PHI 31 4.809 340 26.2
12 7 RB Darren McFadden OAK 24 7.685 250 20.8
13 8 RB Maurice Jones-Drew JAC 26 5.664 269 17.9
14 4 WR Roddy White ATL 29 5.869 300 20.0
15 5 WR Hakeem Nicks NYG 23 5.539 293 19.5
16 9 RB Rashard Mendenhall PIT 24 4.014 234 15.6
17 10 RB Peyton Hillis CLE 25 5.051 256 17.1
18 11 RB Matt Forte CHI 25 5.829 273 18.2
19 12 RB Jahvid Best DET 22 7.479 287 20.5
20 13 RB Frank Gore SF 28 6.663 252 19.3
21 6 WR Miles Austin DAL 27 4.054 262 17.4
22 7 WR Reggie Wayne IND 32 4.031 261 17.4
23 8 WR Vincent Jackson SD 28 3.465 249 16.6
24 14 RB Michael Turner ATL 29 3.291 190 14.6
25 15 RB Steven Jackson STL 28 3.873 231 15.4
26 9 WR Mike Wallace PIT 25 3.583 252 16.8
27 9 WR Greg Jennings GB 27 3.041 240 16.0
28 3 QB Drew Brees NO 32 2.847 351 23.4
29 4 QB Philip Rivers SD 29 2.390 341 22.7
30 16 RB Felix Jones DAL 24 4.979 238 17.0
31 17 RB Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 25 3.873 231 15.4
32 18 RB Mark Ingram NO 21 3.438 207 14.8
33 5 QB Tom Brady NE 34 2.258 338 22.6
34 1 TE Antonio Gates SD 31 4.620 262 17.5
35 6 QB Peyton Manning IND 35 2.744 349 23.2
36 19 RB Knowshon Moreno DEN 24 3.969 218 15.5
37 2 TE Jermichael Finley GB 24 4.263 221 17.0
38 10 WR Percy Harvin MIN 23 3.041 240 16.0
39 11 WR Dwayne Bowe KC 26 2.805 235 15.7
40 12 WR Wes Welker NE 30 2.738 218 15.6
41 13 WR Brandon Lloyd DEN 30 2.758 234 15.6
42 20 RB DeAngelo Williams CAR 28 3.166 216 14.4
43 3 TE Dallas Clark IND 32 3.179 216 15.4
44 4 TE Jason Witten DAL 29 2.946 227 15.1
45 14 WR Mike Williams TB 24 2.711 233 15.5
46 15 WR Brandon Marshall MIA 27 2.611 216 15.4
47 16 WR Marques Colston NO 28 2.462 167 15.2
48 7 QB Tony Romo DAL 31 2.197 337 22.5
49 21 RB Shonn Greene NYJ 26 2.378 186 13.3
50 22 RB Ryan Grant GB 28 2.553 203 13.5
51 17 WR Austin Collie IND 25 2.434 212 15.1
52 18 WR Santonio Holmes NYJ 27 2.404 227 15.1
53 19 WR Dez Bryant DAL 22 2.239 223 14.9
54 20 WR DeSean Jackson PHI 24 2.005 204 14.5
55 21 WR Steve Johnson BUF 25 1.886 216 14.4
56 5 TE Vernon Davis SF 27 2.263 212 14.1
57 22 WR Jeremy Maclin PHI 23 1.626 210 14.0
58 23 WR Anquan Boldin BAL 30 1.956 217 14.5
59 23 RB LeGarrette Blount TB 24 1.964 191 12.7
60 24 RB Joseph Addai IND 28 4.134 205 15.8
61 24 WR Julio Jones ATL 22 1.461 207 13.8
62 25 WR Mario Manningham NYG 25 1.391 205 13.7
63 25 RB Daniel Thomas MIA 23 2.482 202 13.4
64 26 RB Chris Wells ARI 23 2.049 180 12.8
65 27 RB Mike Tolbert SD 25 1.539 182 12.1
66 28 RB Fred Jackson BUF 30 2.246 197 13.1
67 29 RB Tim Hightower WAS 25 3.166 216 14.4
68 26 WR Kenny Britt TEN 22 1.790 185 14.2
69 30 RB Darren Sproles NO 28 1.916 190 12.6
70 31 RB Reggie Bush MIA 26 3.073 186 14.3
71 32 RB Ryan Mathews SD 24 1.443 168 12.0
72 33 RB Cedric Benson CIN 28 1.421 179 11.9
73 27 WR Santana Moss WAS 32 1.061 198 13.2
74 28 WR Chad Ochocinco NE 33 0.849 194 12.9
75 6 TE Owen Daniels HOU 28 1.380 168 12.9
76 7 TE Jimmy Graham NO 24 0.966 185 12.3
77 8 QB Ben Roethlisberger PIT 29 0.471 300 20.0
78 9 QB Matt Ryan ATL 26 0.222 295 19.7
79 34 RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis NE 26 0.223 135 9.6
80 35 RB Marshawn Lynch SEA 25 1.374 178 11.9
81 8 TE Marcedes Lewis JAC 27 0.566 176 11.7
82 36 RB Danny Woodhead NE 26 0.102 151 10.1
83 29 WR Roy Williams CHI 29 0.778 192 12.8
84 30 WR Danny Amendola STL 25 0.707 191 12.7
85 31 WR Pierre Garcon IND 25 0.566 175 12.5
86 32 WR A.J. Green CIN 23 0.519 187 12.4
87 37 RB Willis McGahee DEN 29 0.606 136 9.1
88 38 RB Michael Bush OAK 27 0.323 142 9.5
89 39 RB Jonathan Stewart CAR 24 0.959 129 8.6
90 40 RB Brandon Jacobs NYG 29 1.218 123 8.2
91 33 WR Nate Burleson DET 30 0.000 176 11.7
92 10 QB Matthew Stafford DET 23 0.281 277 19.8
93 11 QB Josh Freeman TB 23 0.019 291 19.4
94 12 QB Matt Schaub HOU 30 0.486 280 18.7
95 41 RB Pierre Thomas NO 26 0.544 119 9.2
96 42 RB C.J. Spiller BUF 24 0.000 129 9.9
97 13 QB Eli Manning NYG 30 0.184 287 19.1
98 14 QB Joe Flacco BAL 26 0.801 273 18.2
99 43 RB Roy Helu WAS 22 1.213 99 8.2
100 9 TE Jared Cook TEN 24 0.165 168 11.2
101 10 TE Rob Gronkowski NE 22 0.377 156 10.4
102 11 TE Kellen Winslow TB 28 0.000 164 10.9
103 34 WR Steve Smith CAR 32 0.024 176 11.7
104 35 WR Robert Meachem NO 26 0.047 175 11.6
105 36 WR Mike Thomas JAC 24 0.071 174 11.6
106 15 QB Kevin Kolb ARI 27 0.000 290 19.4
107 37 WR Davone Bess MIA 25 0.754 160 10.6
108 38 WR Lance Moore NO 28 0.495 165 11.0
109 12 TE Chris Cooley WAS 29 0.626 130 11.8
110 39 WR Jacoby Ford OAK 24 0.118 173 11.5
111 40 WR Hines Ward PIT 35 0.849 158 10.5
112 41 WR Michael Crabtree SF 23 0.306 182 12.1
113 42 WR Plaxico Burress NYJ 34 1.025 123 10.3
114 43 WR Greg Little CLE 22 0.091 162 11.6
115 44 WR Braylon Edwards SF 28 0.236 171 11.4
116 13 TE Ben Watson CLE 30 0.094 166 11.1
117 14 TE Brent Celek PHI 26 0.424 155 10.3
118 15 TE Tony Gonzalez ATL 35 0.613 151 10.1
119 16 TE Greg Olsen CAR 26 0.519 153 10.2
120 16 QB Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 28 1.441 243 17.3
121 17 QB Sam Bradford STL 23 1.692 255 17.0
122 18 QB Mark Sanchez NYJ 24 1.772 253 16.9
123 19 QB Jay Cutler CHI 28 1.881 251 16.7
124 45 WR Lee Evans BAL 30 1.037 154 10.2
125 44 RB Jason Snelling ATL 27 0.865 131 8.7
126 45 RB Rashad Jennings JAC 26 1.336 121 8.0
127 46 RB LaDainian Tomlinson NYJ 32 1.663 106 7.6
128 47 RB Ben Tate HOU 23 3.039 68 5.6
129 48 RB Marion Barber CHI 31 2.915 87 5.8
130 46 WR Roscoe Parrish BUF 29 0.247 114 11.4
131 47 WR Antonio Brown PIT 23 1.108 152 10.1
132 48 WR Steve Breaston KC 28 0.957 135 10.3
133 49 RB Montario Hardesty CLE 24 2.381 59 6.6
134 50 RB Thomas Jones KC 33 2.515 96 6.4
135 20 QB Kyle Orton DEN 28 2.475 238 15.9
136 21 QB Matt Cassel KC 29 2.536 237 15.8
137 49 WR Mike Williams SEA 27 1.556 143 9.5
138 50 WR Sidney Rice SEA 25 1.273 149 9.9
139 22 QB Colt McCoy CLE 24 2.629 188 15.6
140 51 RB LaRod Stephens-Howling ARI 24 1.101 126 8.4
141 17 TE Todd Heap ARI 31 0.714 129 9.9
142 18 TE Tony Moeaki KC 24 0.849 146 9.7
143 19 TE Zach Miller SEA 25 0.849 146 9.7
144 51 WR David Nelson BUF 24 0.872 157 10.5
145 52 WR James Jones GB 27 1.768 138 9.2
146 53 WR Jordy Nelson GB 26 1.626 141 9.4
147 54 WR Malcom Floyd SD 29 1.707 130 9.3
148 55 WR Donald Driver GB 36 2.339 118 8.4
149 19 TE Lance Kendricks STL 23 1.721 128 8.5
150 20 TE Dustin Keller NYJ 26 1.744 127 8.5
151 21 TE Heath Miller PIT 28 1.791 126 8.4
152 22 TE Brandon Pettigrew DET 26 2.027 121 8.1
153 52 RB Javon Ringer TEN 24 4.660 50 3.3
154 53 RB Jerome Harrison DET 28 3.458 76 5.0
155 56 WR Eddie Royal DEN 25 2.381 125 8.3
156 57 WR Derrick Mason NYJ 37 2.168 130 8.6
157 58 WR Kevin Walter HOU 29 3.041 111 7.4
158 59 WR Deion Branch NE 32 2.399 108 8.3
159 60 WR Devin Hester CHI 28 2.522 122 8.1
160 61 WR Jabar Gaffney WAS 30 2.640 120 8.0
161 54 RB Justin Forsett SEA 25 1.478 118 7.8
162 55 RB Ronnie Brown PHI 30 2.067 84 7.0
163 56 RB Ricky Williams BAL 34 3.788 69 4.6
164 57 RB James Starks GB 25 3.862 58 4.5
165 58 RB Kendall Hunter SF 22 4.188 60 4.0
166 59 RB Stevan Ridley NE 22 4.601 41 3.4
167 23 QB Donovan McNabb MIN 34 3.113 209 15.0
168 62 WR Andre Roberts ARI 23 3.064 111 7.4
169 63 WR Jerome Simpson CIN 25 1.391 146 9.7
170 64 WR Jacoby Jones HOU 28 3.182 108 7.2
171 24 QB Jason Campbell OAK 29 3.323 220 14.7
172 65 WR Harry Douglas ATL 26 4.502 80 5.3
173 60 RB Isaac Redman PIT 26 4.801 47 3.1
174 23 TE Fred Davis WAS 25 2.098 120 8.0
175 24 TE Aaron Hernandez NE 21 3.211 90 6.4

Top 25: At this point, fantasy owners would be wise to treat Chris Johnson as an injured player. Not only is it looking he may hold out into the season (with the team and player not even discussing parameters of a deal), but the chances of him pulling a hamstring or suffering a multi-week injury goes up each week he doesn’t practice – even for a conditioning freak like Johnson. And let’s not forget that he has a new offense to learn at some point as well, with the team transitioning from former OC Mike Heimerdinger to current OC Chris Palmer this offseason. The new offense promises to get CJ out in space more often, but it’s only good for him if he knows what he’s doing and is in good enough shape to do it.

Each year, I like to break down the draft by rounds. In other words, I set round-by-round benchmarks for a player to hit in order to be included in that round. For example, a first-round RB needs to average 20 FPts/G in PPR to be designated a first-round pick. As a result, some years will have only 6-8 players worthy of a first-round pick while others may have 12-14. I mention this practice because I believe a strong case could be made for 14 first-rounders in a 12-team league this year, but after that, there are very few players who merit second-round grades (due to injury, production, etc.). After Hakeem Nicks at #14, many of the upper-tier players that follow have serious question marks, which may actually make a great case for owners to trade down in their draft – if their league allows them to swap picks pre-draft – and pick up two of the top 14 players as opposed to one elite player and a relative question mark.

Two years ago, I declared Ronnie Brown a RB1 before the season and he was prior to his midseason injury. Last year, Arian Foster was my 10th-ranked RB and #18 overall player when most considered him a low-end RB2 and fourth-round pick at best. This year, my early favorite is Jahvid Best, who I actually had ranked as my 11th-best RB and #22 overall player last year. The obvious question has to be: how can I be so high on a player with such a poor record for durability? Let’s quickly review his recent injury history. In his final season at Cal, Best suffered a concussion when he hurdled over a defender into the end zone and was accidentally pushed by a second Oregon State defender in mid-air, causing him to land on the back of his head with his helmet coming off before he hit the ground. Last season, he suffered turf toe injuries to both feet – a phenomenon that I can’t remember happening to anyone else in recent memory. Just this past weekend, a Cleveland defender delivered a non-penalized helmet-to-helmet hit to Best on a swing pass along the sideline on the first play of the game. I don’t know about the rest of you, but none of those occurrences appear all that likely to happen again, especially the first two. Maybe he is “injury-prone”, but I have incredible respect for Best now. For a player whose game is built on speed and elusiveness, how high is his ceiling after playing 13 games in his rookie season with an injury that sapped both traits and still finishing as a top 20 RB in fantasy points/game? We certainly saw what he could do when healthy. In the Lions’ offense, he is unlikely to ever see more than seven in the box and since he is such a big part of the passing game, there isn’t a game situation in which he will need to leave the field.

26-50: After watching Felix Jones on Sunday Night Football against the Chargers, I came away very impressed. Known primarily as a speedy, breakaway complement to Marion Barber’s physical style in his first three years as a Cowboy, Jones showed impressive power to go along with his speed and elusiveness. Much as is the case with just about every RB I have listed in the top 20 at the position – starting with McFadden – durability is a concern. If he can show the same kind of durability that allowed him to play 15 games last season, he should be a good bet for 17-18 touches/game and roughly 50 receptions.

The other player I’ll highlight in this part of the Big Board is Brandon Lloyd. Every year, there are breakout receivers who soar into the second and third round the following season after setting the fantasy world on fire the year before while there are others who tend to get punished in drafts because of a coaching or quarterback change or just a wide-held belief their success was a fluke. Lloyd attributed his 2010 season to the fact that former HC Josh McDaniels believed in him since the time he was a college prospect and that Kyle Orton “chose” to throw him the ball. Initially, Lloyd appeared to be a bust candidate for this season since Tim Tebow was going to start and Orton was going to get traded. Throw in the run-loving HC John Fox and it just added fuel to the fire that Lloyd would disappoint. However, I think the fantasy community has been slow to react to the fact Orton has locked up the job, Denver will be a better team this year and Brady Quinn would probably run the team right now if Orton got hurt - and Quinn appears much more poised so far. Let’s not forget that Steve Smith (and Muhsin Muhammad) had some huge years for Fox’s conservative teams, so writing off this passing game would be a mistake.

51-100: There are some RB situations that deserve a mention here in this area. Let’s start with Buffalo’s backfield, where C.J. Spiller has shown virtually nothing outside of last preseason. However, he has reportedly somehow narrowed the gap that existed between his place on the depth chart and Fred Jackson’s. This has all the makings of a situation where coach and front office want “their guy” to win the job as opposed to just playing the more productive player. Since Buffalo is already a poor bet to field a rushing juggernaut anytime soon, owners would be advised to view both players as flex options at best.

Staying in the AFC East, Miami also appears to be suffering from confusion with its backfield. Reggie Bush is finally evolving into a more complete back, but the Dolphins are only fooling themselves if they want to make him anything more than a 15-touch/game player. Bush has played 10 games or less due to injury in two of his last three seasons as a part-time player, so unless the Dolphins feel the move from the Superdome’s synthetic turf to Sun Life Stadium’s natural grass field will allow his knees to hold up better, they are only kidding themselves. Daniel Thomas is still the player to own in this backfield, but it may take a bit of time for Miami to realize Bush is an electrifying complementary player, not a lead back.

Fantasy owners rarely ever like a committee backfield, but if there is one I can embrace right now, it might be in San Diego. There’s little question that Ryan Mathews has more talent than Mike Tolbert, but last year’s preseason fantasy darling already carries some risk in the durability department and will be replaced at the goal line by Tolbert. Further consider that someone has to replace the 59 catches that left when Darren Sproles signed with New Orleans and there is reason to believe Tolbert is the player to own here. Because he is more durable and better in pass protection, one has to think that it will be Tolbert seeing more of those swing passes and screens than Mathews. At worst, these two RBs should be going pretty close to each other, but Tolbert is often available at least 2-3 rounds after Mathews.

101-175: Since I didn’t discuss the rise of Chris “Beanie” Wells above, I’ll discuss it while focusing on a runner PPR owners need to start considering – LaRod Stephens-Howling. I was reasonably certain that rookie Ryan Williams was going to steal the feature-back job from Wells before the end of the season, but a torn patella tendon on his first carry of the second preseason game ended any chance of that happening this year and maybe beyond. At 5-7 and 185 pounds, “Hyphen” won’t threaten Wells’ job security, but he’s a sure bet to work himself into the passing game role that was slated to go to Williams before long. The team is likely to add another RB before the start of the season, but have been impressed with 24-year-old Alfonso Smith so far. After watching him perform well against the Packers’ reserves, he certainly deserves a shot to stick on the roster, if not take a handful of carries from Wells each game. With Wells’ own durability concerns, fantasy owners may want to keep both Stephens-Howling and Smith on their radar.

In a year where there appears to be more TEs than owners in 12-team leagues need, allow me to introduce one more – the Rams’ Lance Kendricks. I know I have mentioned him before, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he finished just outside the top 10. Slotted to play the Aaron Hernandez role in OC Josh McDaniels’ offense, Kendricks will benefit in fantasy from the lack of a Rob Gronkowski-like presence or a consistent second receiver opposite Danny Amendola. I don’t like hyping rookie TEs for a number of reasons, but like Jermaine Gresham last season, talent and opportunity can sometimes overcome inexperience. Just like with Gresham, inconsistency is to be expected, but the upside for 50 catches, 500+ yards and 5-6 TDs is there already this year. I believe I have him conservatively ranked as the 20th-best TE.

 Non-PPR Big Board
OVR PR Pos Player Tm Age Value FPts FPts/G 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 1 RB Arian Foster HOU 25 7.307 276 18.4
2 2 RB Jamaal Charles KC 24 6.835 266 17.7
3 3 RB Adrian Peterson MIN 26 6.600 261 17.4
4 4 RB Ray Rice BAL 24 6.505 259 17.3
5 1 QB Aaron Rodgers GB 27 4.855 393 26.2
6 2 QB Michael Vick PHI 31 4.809 340 26.2
7 5 RB Chris Johnson (Holdout) TEN 25 6.128 251 16.7
8 6 RB LeSean McCoy PHI 23 4.808 223 14.9
9 7 RB Darren McFadden OAK 24 6.052 200 16.6
10 8 RB Maurice Jones-Drew JAC 26 4.667 220 14.7
11 9 RB Matt Forte CHI 25 4.408 215 14.3
12 1 WR Calvin Johnson DET 25 4.620 214 14.3
13 2 WR Larry Fitzgerald ARI 28 4.054 202 13.5
14 3 WR Hakeem Nicks NYG 23 4.054 202 13.5
15 4 WR Roddy White ATL 29 4.054 202 13.5
16 10 RB Rashard Mendenhall PIT 24 4.007 206 13.7
17 5 WR Andre Johnson HOU 30 3.913 199 13.3
18 11 RB Peyton Hillis CLE 25 3.960 205 13.7
19 12 RB Jahvid Best DET 22 5.913 230 16.4
20 13 RB Frank Gore SF 28 5.039 198 15.2
21 14 RB Michael Turner ATL 29 3.951 178 13.7
22 15 RB Mark Ingram NO 21 3.741 187 13.4
23 6 WR Vincent Jackson SD 28 2.923 178 11.9
24 7 WR Mike Wallace PIT 25 2.852 177 11.8
25 3 QB Drew Brees NO 32 2.847 351 23.4
26 4 QB Philip Rivers SD 29 2.390 341 22.7
27 5 QB Tom Brady NE 34 2.258 338 22.6
28 8 WR Miles Austin DAL 27 2.805 176 11.7
29 9 WR Reggie Wayne IND 32 2.593 171 11.4
30 10 WR Greg Jennings GB 27 2.404 167 11.1
31 6 QB Peyton Manning IND 35 2.744 349 23.2
32 16 RB Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 25 3.253 190 12.7
33 17 RB Shonn Greene NYJ 26 2.983 172 12.3
34 18 RB Steven Jackson STL 28 2.923 183 12.2
35 1 TE Antonio Gates SD 31 3.771 183 12.2
36 19 RB Felix Jones DAL 24 3.615 185 13.2
37 20 RB LeGarrette Blount TB 24 2.758 180 12.0
38 21 RB Ryan Grant GB 28 2.781 180 12.0
39 22 RB Knowshon Moreno DEN 24 3.514 183 13.0
40 23 RB DeAngelo Williams CAR 28 3.111 187 12.5
41 2 TE Jermichael Finley GB 24 3.167 148 11.3
42 11 WR Percy Harvin MIN 23 2.263 164 10.9
43 12 WR DeSean Jackson PHI 24 2.083 150 10.7
44 13 WR Dwayne Bowe KC 26 2.074 160 10.7
45 14 WR Mike Williams TB 24 1.980 158 10.5
46 15 WR Brandon Lloyd DEN 30 1.980 158 10.5
47 7 QB Tony Romo DAL 31 2.197 337 22.5
48 3 TE Dallas Clark IND 32 2.064 137 9.8
49 16 WR Dez Bryant DAL 22 1.603 150 10.0
50 17 WR Santonio Holmes NYJ 27 1.579 150 10.0
51 18 WR Brandon Marshall MIA 27 1.527 139 9.9
52 19 WR Julio Jones ATL 22 1.438 147 9.8
53 20 WR Kenny Britt TEN 22 1.657 131 10.1
54 21 WR Marques Colston NO 28 1.796 113 10.3
55 24 RB Joseph Addai IND 28 3.162 163 12.5
56 22 WR Steve Johnson BUF 25 1.344 145 9.6
57 23 WR Mario Manningham NYG 25 1.414 146 9.7
58 4 TE Jason Witten DAL 29 1.673 139 9.2
59 5 TE Vernon Davis SF 27 1.556 136 9.1
60 25 RB Fred Jackson BUF 30 2.098 166 11.0
61 26 RB Mike Tolbert SD 25 1.391 151 10.0
62 27 RB Chris Wells ARI 23 2.503 163 11.6
63 28 RB Cedric Benson CIN 28 1.744 158 10.5
64 24 WR Jeremy Maclin PHI 23 0.943 136 9.1
65 25 WR Austin Collie IND 25 1.148 131 9.4
66 26 WR Wes Welker NE 30 1.148 131 9.4
67 27 WR Anquan Boldin BAL 30 1.084 139 9.3
68 29 RB Daniel Thomas MIA 23 2.333 171 11.4
69 30 RB Tim Hightower WAS 25 2.168 167 11.1
70 31 RB Ryan Mathews SD 24 1.594 145 10.3
71 32 RB Reggie Bush MIA 26 1.503 133 10.2
72 33 RB Marshawn Lynch SEA 25 1.131 145 9.7
73 34 RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis NE 26 0.786 129 9.2
74 6 TE Owen Daniels HOU 28 0.992 108 8.3
75 7 TE Jimmy Graham NO 24 0.919 123 8.2
76 28 WR Chad Ochocinco NE 33 0.636 130 8.6
77 29 WR Pierre Garcon IND 25 0.744 123 8.8
78 30 WR A.J. Green CIN 23 0.684 131 8.7
79 8 QB Ben Roethlisberger PIT 29 0.471 300 20.0
80 9 QB Matt Ryan ATL 26 0.222 295 19.7
81 31 WR Roy Williams CHI 29 0.330 123 8.2
82 32 WR Robert Meachem NO 26 0.212 121 8.0
83 8 TE Marcedes Lewis JAC 27 0.471 113 7.5
84 35 RB Darren Sproles NO 28 0.306 128 8.5
85 10 QB Matthew Stafford DET 23 0.281 277 19.8
86 36 RB Willis McGahee DEN 29 0.047 120 8.0
87 37 RB Michael Bush OAK 27 0.000 121 8.1
88 33 WR Santana Moss WAS 32 0.141 119 7.9
89 34 WR Braylon Edwards SF 28 0.165 120 8.0
90 11 QB Josh Freeman TB 23 0.019 291 19.4
91 12 QB Matt Schaub HOU 30 0.486 280 18.7
92 13 QB Eli Manning NYG 30 0.184 287 19.1
93 38 RB Jonathan Stewart CAR 24 0.071 120 8.0
94 39 RB Brandon Jacobs NYG 29 0.330 114 7.6
95 9 TE Rob Gronkowski NE 22 0.236 108 7.2
96 35 WR Steve Smith CAR 32 0.000 116 7.7
97 36 WR Nate Burleson DET 30 0.259 111 7.4
98 10 TE Jared Cook TEN 24 0.118 106 7.0
99 11 TE Chris Cooley WAS 29 0.030 76 6.9
100 12 TE Kellen Winslow TB 28 0.000 103 6.9
101 37 WR Michael Crabtree SF 23 0.000 116 7.7
102 38 WR Mike Thomas JAC 24 0.660 102 6.8
103 39 WR Jacoby Ford OAK 24 0.047 115 7.7
104 40 WR Lee Evans BAL 30 0.354 109 7.2
105 41 WR Greg Little CLE 22 0.037 109 7.8
106 40 RB Danny Woodhead NE 26 0.519 110 7.3
107 14 QB Joe Flacco BAL 26 0.801 273 18.2
108 15 QB Kevin Kolb ARI 27 0.000 290 19.4
109 41 RB C.J. Spiller BUF 24 0.537 95 7.3
110 42 RB Pierre Thomas NO 26 0.645 93 7.2
111 43 RB Roy Helu WAS 22 0.960 81 6.7
112 44 RB Rashad Jennings JAC 26 1.108 98 6.5
113 16 QB Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 28 1.441 243 17.3
114 17 QB Sam Bradford STL 23 1.692 255 17.0
115 18 QB Mark Sanchez NYJ 24 1.772 253 16.9
116 19 QB Jay Cutler CHI 28 1.881 251 16.7
117 13 TE Ben Watson CLE 30 0.047 102 6.8
118 14 TE Brent Celek PHI 26 0.283 97 6.5
119 42 WR Danny Amendola STL 25 0.684 102 6.8
120 43 WR Lance Moore NO 28 0.754 100 6.7
121 44 WR Hines Ward PIT 35 0.778 100 6.6
122 45 WR Plaxico Burress NYJ 34 0.695 81 6.8
123 46 WR Sidney Rice SEA 25 0.778 100 6.6
124 15 TE Tony Gonzalez ATL 35 0.566 91 6.1
125 20 QB Kyle Orton DEN 28 2.475 238 15.9
126 21 QB Matt Cassel KC 29 2.536 237 15.8
127 22 QB Colt McCoy CLE 24 2.629 188 15.6
128 45 RB Montario Hardesty CLE 24 1.540 53 5.9
129 46 RB Jason Snelling ATL 27 1.579 88 5.8
130 16 TE Todd Heap ARI 31 0.286 84 6.5
131 17 TE Tony Moeaki KC 24 0.566 91 6.1
132 18 TE Greg Olsen CAR 26 0.424 94 6.3
133 47 RB LaDainian Tomlinson NYJ 32 2.067 72 5.1
134 48 RB Ben Tate HOU 23 2.316 58 4.8
135 49 RB Marion Barber CHI 31 2.263 73 4.9
136 50 RB Thomas Jones KC 33 1.768 84 5.6
137 51 RB LaRod Stephens-Howling ARI 24 1.438 91 6.0
138 52 RB Ronnie Brown PHI 30 1.697 68 5.7
139 53 RB Justin Forsett SEA 25 1.768 84 5.6
140 19 TE Brandon Pettigrew DET 26 1.226 77 5.1
141 20 TE Lance Kendricks STL 23 0.636 90 6.0
142 21 TE Zach Miller - SEA SEA 25 0.613 90 6.0
143 54 RB Ricky Williams BAL 34 2.899 60 4.0
144 55 RB Delone Carter IND 24 2.903 52 4.0
145 56 RB James Starks GB 25 2.930 51 3.9
146 57 RB Jerome Harrison DET 28 3.088 56 3.7
147 47 WR Davone Bess MIA 25 1.202 91 6.0
148 48 WR Donald Driver GB 36 1.756 74 5.3
149 58 RB Javon Ringer TEN 24 3.913 38 2.5
150 59 RB Kendall Hunter SF 22 3.724 42 2.8
151 60 RB Stevan Ridley NE 22 3.465 38 3.2
152 22 TE Dustin Keller NYJ 26 1.226 77 5.1
153 49 WR Malcom Floyd SD 29 0.923 90 6.4
154 50 WR Devin Hester CHI 28 1.650 81 5.4
155 23 QB Donovan McNabb MIN 34 3.113 209 15.0
156 51 WR David Nelson BUF 24 0.236 111 7.4
157 52 WR Antonio Brown PIT 23 0.519 105 7.0
158 53 WR Roscoe Parrish BUF 29 0.625 69 6.9
159 54 WR James Jones GB 27 1.037 94 6.3
160 55 WR Jordy Nelson GB 26 1.273 89 5.9
161 23 TE Fred Davis WAS 25 0.919 84 5.6
162 56 WR Eddie Royal DEN 25 1.933 75 5.0
163 57 WR Mike Williams SEA 27 1.579 83 5.5
164 58 WR Mike Sims-Walker STL 26 1.352 82 5.8
165 59 WR Steve Breaston KC 28 1.090 81 6.2
166 24 TE Heath Miller PIT 28 1.461 72 4.8
167 25 TE Jermaine Gresham CIN 23 0.754 87 5.8
168 60 WR Derrick Mason NYJ 37 1.768 79 5.2
169 61 WR Jabar Gaffney WAS 30 2.051 73 4.8
170 62 WR Andre Roberts ARI 23 2.003 74 4.9
171 24 QB Jason Campbell OAK 29 3.323 220 14.7
172 61 RB Isaac Redman PIT 26 3.960 37 2.5
173 63 WR Jason Hill JAC 26 2.312 63 4.5
174 64 WR Harry Douglas ATL 26 3.347 45 3.0
175 26 TE Julius Thomas DEN 23 1.461 72 4.8

Top 25: As long as his future owners are willing to spend a ninth- or tenth-round pick on Michael Bush, I don’t see any reason why owners should shy away from Darren McFadden. Especially in light of Chris Johnson’s holdout and the value that someone like LeSean McCoy loses in non-PPR leagues, owning D-Mac and his injury history isn’t the worst consolation prize for an owner selecting at the back end of the first round. With his role as the Raiders’ feature back cemented, McFadden should do a pretty good job at showing off his Marshall Faulk and Priest Holmes-like talent. After all, he was the sixth-best RB in fantasy last year – according to the FF Today Default Scoring setting on the Consistency Calculator – when it came to posting elite production in 2010.

As one might imagine, perhaps no player benefits more from the transition from PPR to non-PPR scoring more than Michael Turner. While there is only a three-spot difference for him in my rankings, the fact of the matter is that he has been miscast in PPR leagues as a RB1 for the last two seasons. But in non-PPR, his scoring prowess can be highlighted much more since he isn’t giving up approximately 100 fantasy points each year to the top backs who typically post 50+ catches and roughly 500 receiving yards. I have never been a big fan of one-trick ponies at RB in fantasy, but Turner is an interesting – if not appealing – consideration as a RB2 in non-PPR. I must admit landing McFadden-Turner in the first two rounds of a non-PPR draft is an appetizing thought for owners who are picking at the back end of the first round of a snake draft. The fact that we can attribute his late-season fade to a groin injury that he played through (and has since underwent surgery for) means he has a shot of giving us perhaps one more season of insane production in what figures to be a prolific offense.

26-50: Trying to gauge the value of some players – no matter how hard you try or what methods you use – is a fruitless endeavor. Such is the case with DeAngelo Williams, who still has plenty left in the tank to return to his glory days in 2008 when he was the best fantasy RB in the land…or he could give his owners an injury-shortened season like he has the past two seasons. On one hand, Carolina should have its stellar run-blocking line back intact, but will the inaccuracy of likely rookie QB starter Cam Newton mean that opponents will sell out to stop the run at all costs? Then, there is the presence of “Double Trouble” tag team partner Jonathan Stewart, who also serves as a drain for consistent fantasy production from Williams. And let’s not forget Mike Goodson, who was being used as the third-down back a lot when all three were healthy last season. Does that continue with the new coaching staff? I believe he’s worth the risk for a fourth-round pick (where I have him rated), but his ceiling is certainly lower than most and his floor is lower than I’d like it to be.

51-100: Each year, there are players who you want to be more optimistic about than you are. And then, there are those players who you believe you are too high on and need someone to help you keep your expectations in check. In my case, the last part applies to Julio Jones, who enters the league with some injury risk already and is clearly the second option in the passing game (at best) behind Roddy White and, depending on the opponent, Tony Gonzalez. Throw in a healthy Harry Douglas in the slot (who I wish I could put higher on both lists than I have him right now) and the potential for disappointment is definitely there, especially when I have him projected for nine scores. However, this offense is primed to score at least 40 TDs this season, with at least 25-30 coming through the air. So even if White goes crazy and scores half of the total (which is doubtful), that still leaves Gonzalez and Jones to split roughly 10-15 scores with someone like Douglas stealing a couple of TDs. Still, with Gonzo on the decline, expecting more than 5-6 scores from him would be a bit much. With White likely drawing safety help and the other safety focused on Gonzalez, Jones may actually fulfill my lofty expectations.

Cedric Benson may be the Bengals’ feature back and the only RB worth considering from their backfield in fantasy, but that doesn’t mean he will carrying his owners to fantasy titles anytime soon. Not only is his second-half schedule littered with difficult matchups, but Benson is also operating in a Cincinnati offense that looks completely inept with rookie Andy Dalton the likely starter. Dalton won’t be this bad for long, but the youth at the skill positions will make the offense difficult to predict from week to week. Since the offense will have trouble scoring points, it probably won’t be able to consistently lean on Benson all game long either. I can say with some certainty I don’t want any Bengals starting on any of my fantasy teams this season.

101-175: Allow me to throw a bit of cold water on the Ben Tate hype that came after his 9-95-1 line against the Saints this past weekend. Make no mistake – Tate is talented and much bigger than I remember him being during his college days, but barring an injury to Arian Foster, Tate is looking at the same kind of numbers that Derrick Ward ended up with last season. While this performance showed the second-year back is healthy, about all it proved to me was that Houston’s offensive line is among the best in the league and that Houston has quality depth in its backfield. In fact, HC Gary Kubiak admitted surprise when asked at halftime about Tate’s performance. While I do expect Kubiak to anoint Tate as the backup in the next week or so, Tate should have much more value to Foster’s owners than anyone else. I have him currently ticketed as an 11th-round value right now, which is about where Foster’s owners should consider him.

Since I started talking about Chris Johnson at the beginning of the PPR section, I suppose it’s only right to close this week’s analysis with his backup. Javon Ringer will not make anyone forget Johnson, but don’t believe for a second that he cannot be a useful fantasy player. Although rookie Jamie Harper is opening eyes this preseason, Ringer appears locked in as the potential starter should Johnson continue to hold out into the season. To that end, new OC Chris Palmer raved about Ringer last week, suggesting that he needs to find a way to get the Michigan State alum some touches even after Johnson returns. Palmer stated upon his hire that he wanted a 35:30 run-pass ratio and has done a fair job of sticking to that plan so far in the preseason with a 63:55 ratio through two games. With injury-prone QB Matt Hasselbeck and the green Jake Locker likely to take all the snaps this season, that plan doesn’t figure to change much with or without Johnson. Therefore, owners need to start considering Ringer as a bit player right now who could see his value skyrocket in about two weeks if Johnson is still not in camp at that point. And as we discussed above, the likelihood of injury increases the longer Johnson holds out, so even if/when does report, Ringer needs to remain on fantasy rosters.

Note: As opposed to placing kickers and defense/special teams units in my Big Board, I will let you – the fantasy owner – decide at what point you should select your kicker and defense, although I don’t mind grabbing my defense in the 12th or 13th round of a 16-round draft when I feel really good about the team I have drafted to that point and the schedule suggests there is a team that is in line to have an incredible year on defense.

 Kickers
Pos Player Age Avg Tot XP FG
K Alex Henery 24 9.4 141 45 32
K Jay Feely 35 8.7 130 43 29
K Nate Kaeding 29 8.7 130 35 29
K Neil Rackers 35 8.3 124 40 28
K Garrett Hartley 25 8.1 122 47 25
K Stephen Gostkowski 27 7.9 119 44 25
K Mason Crosby 26 7.7 116 47 23
K Matt Bryant 36 7.7 115 40 25
K Shaun Suisham 29 7.5 113 38 25
K Adam Vinatieri 38 7.3 110 44 22
K Lawrence Tynes 33 7.3 109 40 23
K Jason Hanson 41 7.1 106 40 22
K Billy Cundiff 31 6.9 104 35 23
K Josh Brown 32 6.9 103 28 25
K Mike Nugent 29 6.8 102 27 25
K Nick Folk 26 6.7 101 32 23
K Josh Scobee 29 6.7 101 38 21
K Rob Bironas 33 6.7 101 29 24
K Dan Carpenter 25 6.7 100 25 25
K David Buehler? 24 6.7 100 40 20
K Rian Lindell 34 6.6 99 36 21
K Phil Dawson 36 6.6 99 30 23
K Connor Barth 25 6.6 99 33 22
K Ryan Succop 24 6.5 98 32 22
K Sebastian Janikowski 33 6.3 95 29 22
K Robbie Gould 29 6.3 94 31 21
K Jeff Reed 32 6.1 92 26 22
K Ryan Longwell 37 6.1 91 34 19
K Matt Prater 27 6.1 92 32 20
K Graham Gano 24 6.0 90 24 22
K David Akers 36 5.9 89 29 20
K Olindo Mare 38 5.2 78 33 15

And now, the defense/special teams rankings…

Key:
FPts – Total fantasy points scored
PA – Actual points allowed
Sk – Sacks
TD – Defensive/special teams touchdowns
Bon – Total bonus for holding opponent under point benchmarks

 Defense/Special Teams
Pos Player Fpts/G FPts PA Sk TO TD Bon 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
DST Packers DST 11.0 165 258 46 62 30 27
DST Steelers DST 9.9 148 236 47 52 18 31
DST Eagles DST 9.3 140 328 44 58 30 8
DST Saints DST 9.3 139 275 38 58 24 19
DST Ravens DST 9.1 136 260 36 48 30 22
DST Jets DST 9.1 136 233 36 56 12 32
DST Giants DST 9.0 135 299 46 54 24 11
DST Bears DST 8.9 133 280 40 52 24 17
DST Patriots DST 8.6 129 275 33 58 24 14
DST Chargers DST 8.4 126 307 40 44 30 12
DST Falcons DST 8.3 124 298 36 56 18 14
DST Colts DST 8.1 122 298 34 50 24 14
DST Cardinals DST 7.9 119 318 38 50 24 7
DST Cowboys DST 7.8 117 310 36 46 24 11
DST Chiefs DST 7.8 117 287 34 50 18 15
DST Lions DST 7.7 116 373 37 52 30 -3
DST Rams DST 7.3 110 310 35 48 18 9
DST Dolphins DST 6.9 104 338 34 40 24 6
DST Texans DST 6.9 103 321 32 44 18 9
DST Bucs DST 6.9 103 346 32 48 18 5
DST Broncos DST 6.7 101 347 35 46 18 2
DST Raiders DST 6.8 102 374 38 42 24 -2
DST Vikings DST 6.5 97 396 35 42 24 -4
DST Seahawks DST 6.1 91 360 32 44 12 3
DST Redskins DST 6.1 91 369 31 44 18 -2
DST Bengals DST 5.9 88 339 27 44 12 5
DST Bills DST 5.8 87 387 26 44 24 -7
DST Panthers DST 5.7 86 397 30 48 12 -4
DST 49ers DST 5.6 84 358 29 40 12 3
DST Browns DST 5.5 82 372 28 42 12 0
DST Titans DST 5.2 78 415 26 38 18 -4
DST Jaguars DST 5.2 78 388 23 38 18 -1

Suggestions, comments, musings about the article or fantasy football in general? E-mail me.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each of the last two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football analyst for 106.7 The Fan in Washington, D.C. this past season. He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can also follow him on Twitter.