Jay Ajayi: Back to back games of 200+ yards
rushing is making fantasy owners sit up and take notice.
Ten buzz-worthy notes from Week 7…
Ajayi: Unleashed and Unstoppable
We’ve all seen running backs over the years bust off huge games
from out of nowhere. Jonas
Gray comes to mind from just a few years back. But, a running
back who gains 200-plus yards in consecutive weeks? That’s a rarity.
In fact, it’s only happened three other times in NFL history. It’s
truly amazing what can be accomplished when a team decides it’s
going to commit to the running game and actually sticks with that
plan. Not surprisingly, Miami has beaten two good teams courtesy
of a revamped game plan that does not depend on Ryan
Tannehill. Ajayi is likely winded from 54 carries in two weeks,
but a bye in Week 8 should be enough to keep him fresh. It’s always
exciting to see a new stud running back emerge…but, the next game
(vs. Jets) will be the best indicator yet of how ready Ajayi is
for stardom. That would be the team that just held the previous
RB darling (Terrance
West) to 11 yards rushing on Sunday. At least there's no more
Arian
Foster (retirement) looking over the shoulder.
Five Quarters, No Touchdowns
The Sunday night Seattle-Arizona game was bizarre by anyone’s definition,
but it also encapsulated the regression that both passing offenses
have experienced in 2016. Both Russell
Wilson and Carson
Palmer were considered top ten fantasy QBs coming into this
season, but combined, the two have now thrown for only 12 touchdowns
in 12 games (Palmer-7, Wilson- 5). Considering they combined for
69 last year, it’s not hard to see how casualties are piling up
in their wake (Tyler
Lockett, Michael
Floyd, John
Brown). What makes matters worse, Wilson has only run for 33
yards this year on 22 carries. Since it was his rushing that helped
make him an elite fantasy QB in 2015, that stat is telling. A slow
Wilson and a past his prime Palmer don’t project well moving forward,
but both do have a game against the Saints in their future, so some
sporadic success is still possible. In the disappointment category,
these two QBs rank up there with biggest of them in 2016 thus far.
Do Players Really Play Better Against
their Former Teams? A Case Study:
Last week, we chronicled the impact of LeSean McCoy playing against
his former coach. What transpired was McCoy’s biggest day
as a Bill and it wasn’t a huge surprise due to the Chip Kelly
dynamic. This week, LeGarrette Blount ran like a man possessed (127
yards rushing, 2 TDs) vs. the team that cut him loose a few years
back. Coaches seem to use that situation to motivate and from what
we’ve seen in recent years, I believe that more often than
not, players respond. Blount’s success will continue to be
game-plan dependent moving forward, but he reminded us all on Sunday
that even with Brady back, he can be a huge factor when the Patriots
want to salt away the clock in the second half of games. Next week’s
revenge vs. former team candidate: Jimmy Graham. Expect him to have
his best game since he becoming a Saint.
Andrew is Resurgent…But is Getting
it Done Quietly
One of the biggest question marks coming into this season was whether
or not Andrew Luck could return to being an elite fantasy option
at the QB position. There were articles written on both sides of
the argument. Then, the season began and other things became more
interesting. And, the question of whether or not Luck could rebound
was cast into the shadows a bit. Now, seven weeks into this season,
we may have some answers. Projected over 16 games, Luck’s
current pace would give him 4,740 yards passing, 32 TDs, and only
8 INTs. Those are fairly elite numbers. Add in the fact that Luck
is on pace to run for 300-400 yards and a couple of TDs and the
fulfillment of the question is even more clear. He does have to
contend with the Texans and Vikings’ defenses in Weeks 14
and 15, but he put up very good numbers vs. the Texans in Week 6
and it approaching must-start status once again in every matchup
instance. And all of this is happening in relative silence.
Fool’s Gold Abundant in Ohio
If you started a Bengal not named Tyler
Eifert on Sunday, you got rewarded. Like big-time rewarded.
Andy
Dalton (300-plus yards passing, 2 TDs), Jeremy
Hill (192 total yards, 1 TD) and Mr. Hail Mary, A.J.
Green (169 rec. yards, 1 TD) all made their owners proud on
Sunday and likely carried a number of fantasy teams to victory.
Dalton is enjoying a fine fantasy season and Green has rewarded
those who spent a late first round pick on him in August. But, this
game was against Cleveland. As in, the defense ranked in the bottom
five in the league in both passing and rushing yards allowed. I’m
not saying the Bengals can’t duplicate Sunday’s totals again (especially
in Week 14 when they draw the Browns again), but generally speaking,
the Bengals are built for lower-scoring, grind it out games unless
they’re playing from behind. As such, sell high on Hill this week
if you can. His value will simply never be higher than it is.
Workhorse Running Backs Coming Out of
Nowhere
Hill’s big day came out of nowhere given his recent form, but it
was hardly an isolated phenomenon from the weekend. We’ve already
chronicled big games from Ajayi and Blount, but did we mention Jacquizz
Rodgers? Who would have dreamed Rodgers could handle 56 carries
total in successive games? And, Spencer Ware is making it hard for
Kansas City to consider putting Jamaal Charles back into a meaningful
role even if he does get back to 100%. Finally, what took the Jets
so long to figure out how they competed so well in Weeks 1 and 2?
Matt
Forte logged 30 carries for exactly 100 yards in Week 2. And
on Sunday? Again, 30 carries/100 yards. Throw in some solid receiving
numbers and you’ve got a formula for Jets success in the Eric
Decker-less era. At WR, the top ten for the year so far contains
very few surprises. But, at RB? Let’s just say there continue to
be surprises around every corner.
They’re on to You, Sam and Carson
The darlings of September. That’s what we’ll call Sam
Bradford and Carson
Wentz. In their first three games, both quarterbacks appeared
to be headed for relevant fantasy seasons. Wentz threw for an average
of 257 yards a game during that stretch and also averaged nearly
2 TDs a contest. Since that time, Wentz has regressed to 185 yards
a game and 1 TD per contest. It’s almost as if during the bye week,
Wentz realized what he had been doing and gravity took hold. Truth
be told, it probably had more to do with defensive coordinators
getting some meaningful film on him. As for Bradford, he was not
able to follow up on the “revenge” theory like RBs have in recent
weeks. The Bradford-led offense has become predictable and with
little to no running game to support a balanced attack. Look for
Bradford to produce only backup-caliber numbers moving forward.
What Philadelphia and Minnesota have in common are top-shelf defenses.
That means both will play it close to the vest moving forward as
both care more about winning games than establishing fantasy football
relevancy. Funny how that works.
That Thing That No One Saw Coming…
Every week, something fits into this category, but the thing no
one saw coming No.1 moment of the year was Davante Adams last Thursday
night. Coming off of a concussion and doubtful to even suit it,
Adams ended up with the best numbers of any WR for the week Adams’s
night (13-132-2) may have served as a deal-breaker in the game you
played in…but that’s assuming that he was actually in
lineups. He was likely a desperation play if he was, but just like
a Hail Mary, sometimes the right things happens in the end.
Singin’ the Jacksonville Blues
The Jaguars were supposed to be an offense to get excited about
when the season started, but they’re looking more like a resting
place for busts at this point. Allen Robinson’s day versus
an awful Raiders secondary may have been the second biggest thing
of the week that no one saw coming…but from the opposite end
of the spectrum. Throw in four straight games with 271 yards or
less passing for Blake Bortles in addition to the same number of
interception as touchdowns (6-6) and the disease appears widespread.
That doesn’t even take into account T.J. Yeldon’s 3.3
YPC through six games. Maybe, the Jags should take a page from the
Jets and Dolphins and just give the ball to Chris Ivory 30 times
this Thursday night. It can’t make things any worse than they
already are.
Monday Night/More Of The Same
This week's final game continued to affirm what we're now starting
to see week in and week out. Teams are rediscovering that when you
run the ball well, you win games. There has been plenty of talk
in the past week about which Denver RB to own moving forward. But,
when both are given the ball a combined 33 times, there's room at
the table for both C.J.
Anderson and Devontae
Booker. Again, after running backs were left for dead at the
end of last year, we're seeing a trend back towards balance. Nine
running backs currently average 18 or more carries a game. At the
end of last year, the number of running backs with those averages
- two. Enough said. Here's hoping you had Anderson or Booker in
your lineup and not the second coming of Allen
Robinson...namely, DeAndre
Hopkins.
That's it for Week 7. Next week, we'll take a look at some mid-season
awards in addition to our usual recap. Until then…
