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Kirk Hollis | Archive | Email  
Staff Writer


Digging For Bye Week Gold: Players to Target
8/11/15

An emerging concept with respect to putting together your fantasy team in a redraft league is trying to pair up your early selections (starters) with players who have ideal matchups during the weeks that your projected starters are on a bye. The purpose of this article, however, is not to propose this as a strategy, but to take the concept further and identify what specific bench players should be paired with some of the most prominent starting players in the game today. Before we dig into that on a week-by-week basis, let me offer a reminder about a couple of things.

First, we’re talking primarily about players in the 13 to 20 range with respect to quarterbacks and tight ends and the 25 to 40 range with respect to running backs and wide receivers. Players whose values are higher will likely be drafted as starters and won’t be available as players to come off your bench.

Second, any identification of players is based on which defenses got exploited in 2014 by specific skill position players. For example, nobody gave up more fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2014 than the Philadelphia Eagles. The Saints and Raiders led in fantasy points surrendered to running backs. Wide receivers and tight ends performed best against the Eagles and Colts, respectively. And, while 2015 defenses won’t look exactly like 2014 defenses, massive improvements don’t come overnight or, more specifically, over the course of an offseason. Still, some adjustments will be made based on the offseason changes that have occurred. With those things in mind, every ideal bye week replacement player fits within a certain range with respect to preseason value and will face a bottom-five defense in terms of points allowed certain positions in 2014.

Week Four:

Prominent Players on Bye: Rob Gronkowski

The league is easing us into the bye week madness this year with only the Titans and Patriots on bye in Week 4. That means Rob Gronkowski is the only prominent player to be subbed for. Here’s our suggestion if Gronk is one of your draftees.

TE: Josh Hill (vs. DAL): Games between the Saints and Cowboys over the past decade have produced lots of yards/scoring, and only the Colts were worse in terms of allowing fantasy points to tight ends in 2014. That makes Hill the perfect bye week filler for Gronk.

Week Five:

Prominent Players on Bye: Cam Newton, Kelvin Benjamin, Greg Olsen, Lamar Miller, Jordan Cameron, Adrian Peterson, Brandon Marshall

And the pace quickens. Aside from Peterson, none of the players on bye in Week Five are bona fide fantasy studs, but there are over a half dozen starters to be swapped out.

QB: Robert Griffin III (@ ATL): I fully understand the risks that come with drafting Griffin, but this is an ideal matchup for him. A generally soft Falcons pass rush and pass defense combined with indoor conditions should allow Griffin to enjoy one of his finest games of the season, making him a great pairing with Newton.

RB: Doug Martin/Charles Sims (vs JAX): While the Jaguars stopped the pass fairly well in 2014, they struggled to curtail the run, ranking in the bottom five in fantasy points allowed to RBs. That, combined with the fact that Martin/Sims are at home, make that duo the best possible scenario if you’re trying to find someone to fill Peterson’s shoes. Martin is no Peterson, but his matchup is worthy of making him Peterson’s understudy on draft day.

WR: Allen Robinson (@ TB): On the flip side of that same game is the porous Tampa Bay pass defense going up against a player many feel is going to have a breakout season. If you’ve got Benjamin or Marshall as one of your starting receivers, Robinson would make a tremendous amount of sense as the guy to back them up.

TE: Eric Ebron (vs. ARI): Another season, another opportunity to pick on the Cardinals’ woeful defense against tight ends. Hey, at least this past season the Colts were worse. Ebron looks to get more involved in the offense, and Week Five is the best bet as to when that will take place. Expect starter-like numbers.
Anquan Boldin

Did you snag Dez Bryant or Mike Evans in the early rounds? Target Boldin late as a bye week fill-in.


Week Six:

Prominent Players on Bye: Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, Mike Evans

Not a lot of big names will take off in Week Six, but a couple of big receivers will leave shoes to fill, in addition to likely starting quarterback Romo.

QB: Carson Palmer (@ PIT): We all tend to value the Pittsburgh defense more highly than we should, based on past glories, but truth be told, the Steelers’ secondary has been vulnerable for years, and they don’t have a particularly good pass rush, either. Enter Carson Palmer and the Cardinals, who will be forced to throw often in an effort to keep up with Pittsburgh’s high-powered offense. Palmer’s dislike for the Steelers dates back to when he got injured against them in an AFC playoff game. He’ll be highly motivated in this one, making him a great guy to pair with Romo on rosters this fall.

WR: Anquan Boldin (vs. BAL): The stars are aligned for Boldin to be a perfect roster fit if you also draft Bryant or Evans. The Ravens were surprisingly soft versus the pass last year and have lost a starting safety (Matt Elam) for the season already. Add to that the fact that Boldin will be up against a former team and he becomes the solution for this week’s scramble.

Week Seven:

Prominent Players on Bye: Matt Forte, Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett, Jeremy Hill, A.J. Green, Peyton Manning, C.J. Anderson, Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb

The need for bye week “gold” in Week Seven is prominent with some of the better offensive teams in the league sitting out. Here are suggestions for every position across the board.

QB: Alex Smith (vs. PIT): I hate to pick on the Steelers again, but they present the best matchup for quarterbacks for a second week in a row. Enter Smith, who plays better at home and will be forced to throw plenty as the Steelers remain one of the hardest teams in the league to run the ball against, particularly in the red zone. If you have Rodgers or Manning as your top signal caller, Smith would be an outstanding late-round pick to hold the clipboard.

RB: Tevin Coleman/Devonta Freeman (@ TEN): The Falcons don’t project to run the ball well in 2015, but a matchup with the Titans (third worst defense against the run in 2014) should be just what the doctor ordered. The Titans defense really didn’t make any noteworthy additions in the offseason either, so Coleman and/or Freeman make a nice “golden” duo.

WR: Jarvis Landry (vs. HOU): The Texans defend tight ends very well (or did last year) but struggled mightily in trying to shut down skilled receivers out of the slot. Landry will make his living there this season quite a bit and a home date against Houston makes him an ideal replacement for the likes of Green, Nelson, Thomas, Cobb, Jeffery and Sanders.

TE: Austin Seferian-Jenkins (@WAS): If you drafted Bennett as your starting TE, strongly consider adding Seferian-Jenkins as the “backup”. This is a strong matchup for him, and Jameis Winston will be looking for his tight end early and often in road games for most of the season.

Week Eight:

Prominent Players on Bye: LeSean McCoy, DeMarco Murray, Jordan Matthews, Alfred Morris, DeSean Jackson

No high-profile quarterbacks are off in Week Eight, but some big-name RBs and a couple of likely starting WRs get to take a breather, so let’s address those two positions.

RB: Rashad Jennings/Shane Vereen (@ NO): Inside the confines of the Superdome, a shootout appears likely, even if the Saints are indeed going to try to implement a more balanced offensive attack this season. No one allowed more fantasy points to RBs in 2014 than New Orleans, and look for that trend to continue in 2015 with Jennings and Vereen reaping the benefits. They are good bye week replacements for the likes of McCoy, Murray and Morris.

WR: Vincent Jackson (@ATL): Jackson was targeted 13 times versus Atlanta in the Buccaneers’ second game with the Falcons last season. Sure, that was with Josh McCown at QB, but the Bucs’ big receivers match up well with the smallish Falcons secondary. If you’re drafting Matthews or DeSean Jackson as your No. 2 WR, go ahead and grab Vincent Jackson a round or two later to fill in for them in Week Eight.

Week Nine:

Prominent Players on Bye: Justin Forsett, Calvin Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Jamaal Charles, Travis Kelce, Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, Jimmy Graham

Not quite as impactful as Week Seven, but Week Nine will offer up challenges replacing a top-3 QB, two top-5 RBs, a couple of starting WRs and a top-3 TE.

QB: Philip Rivers (vs. CHI): Getting Rivers will cost you more than all other backups, as he’s probably the cream of the crop amongst projected non-starters. That being said, coupling him with Russell Wilson makes a great deal of sense, given a home date with the Bears on Monday night of Week Nine. John Fox may improve the Bears defense, but it’s hard to think they’ll be vastly improved from what they were last season (bottom five in fantasy points allowed to QBs).

RB: Giovani Bernard (vs. CLE): Cleveland has the secondary to make life miserable for wide receivers, which creates opportunities in the passing game for RBs and TEs. Enter Bernard in what might be an ideal game to give Jeremy Hill a bit of a rest. If the Bengals get up big at home as would be expected, Bernard might just have his most productive day of the season. For that reason, he’s worth stashing on the roster if you have Charles or Lynch.

WR: Julian Edelman/Brandon LaFell (vs. WAS): Every year, Tom Brady has a couple of games in which he shreds poor pass defenses for monster numbers. Look for Washington to try to take Gronkowski out of the picture, thus exposing its weak secondary to one-on-one matchups with New England’s WRs. Edelman may end up a fantasy starter for someone in your league, but LaFell should still be available for pickup in the middle rounds should you have already picked Calvin Johnson.

TE: Owen Daniels (@ IND): This one’s easy. We mentioned earlier that the Colts were even worse last year in terms of stopping TEs than Arizona (no small feat). Well, here’s Peyton Manning versus Andrew Luck in a game that could top 1,000 yards. Looks like Daniels’ strongest matchup of the year to me and a perfect complement to the resting Travis Kelce.

Week Ten:

Prominent Players on Bye: Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton

Losing Luck or Jones will sting no doubt, but here are some suggestions on replacing either/or.

QB: Ryan Tannehill (@ PHI):
I’ve been waiting throughout the entirety of this article to pick on the Eagles, and now the opportunity arises. Tannehill is a borderline starter in 12-team leagues, so getting him won’t be cheap, but this matchup looks to be his finest of the season. He’ll reward you here if you have to sit Luck or Ryan. The numbers from the Chip Kelly era of Eagles football bear that out.

WR: Brian Quick/Kenny Britt (vs. CHI): I’m swinging for the fences here, but playing indoors versus the aforementioned Chicago secondary is too hard to pass up. If you have Julio Jones or Hilton on your roster, take a late-round flier on one of these guys.

Week Eleven:

Prominent Players on Bye: Drew Brees, Mark Ingram, Brandin Cooks, Eli Manning, Odell Beckham Jr., Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown

It’s going to take 11 weeks for some guys to see their first rest. When these big names do take time for that, here are our recommendations for bye week sustainability.

QB: Blake Bortles (vs. TEN): Brees, Roethlisberger and Manning are iron men, so you probably only need one week out of your backup if you’ve got one of them in tow. Why not Bortles? He’s at home versus one of the worst defenses of the past half-decade, and he’ll have had 10 weeks to jell with a still young/inexperienced receiving corps. Plus, he’ll come cheap at your draft.

RB: Joique Bell/Ameer Abdullah (vs. OAK): Oakland certainly looks better than in years past on the offensive side of the ball, but on defense very little has changed in terms of being able to prevent running backs from racking up big fantasy numbers. Add to that the fact that Detroit will be at home in this game and you’ve got big performances forthcoming. So, if you draft the top-shelf Bell, drafting the other Bell is a good idea as well.

WR: Donte Moncrief (@ATL): Moncrief will never be a PPR monster, but if you’re looking for a week that he might break out for two or three long receptions and at least one touchdown, this is a great spot. Nobody’s going to fill Brown’s or Beckham’s shoes, but Moncrief might come close in a sneaky sort of way.

As was noted in last year’s edition of this article, I wouldn’t normally encourage anyone to do much beyond reading an article and gleaning from it a thing or two to use in their team construction. However, in this case, let me make one final suggestion: Print this article and bring it with you to your draft. As you draft any of the prominent players above, write the name of their ideal bye week replacements down and grab those players later in the draft. Again, you’ll be glad you did. Good luck in your drafts later this month!





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