Denver’s defense is legit, finishing the year second against
the run, and sixth against the pass. Their pass rush, meanwhile,
is elite, logging 11 more sacks than any other team in football
this season. They’re not infallible, however, as both the
Packers and Jaguars showed late in the season. Green Bay put 23
points on the board in the first 32 minutes before injuries took
away their stud right tackle and top wideout. The next week, it
was Jacksonville that moved the ball effectively behind Trevor
Lawrence in a 34-20 win. Both teams leaned on their passing game,
and both utilized their tight ends: Luke Musgrave, the backup
to an injured Tucker Kraft (knee), had a season-high 52 yards,
and Brenton Strange caught five passes and scored a touchdown.
When healthy, Kincaid is a strong option for Allen, and he had
the team’s lone receiving score in their Wild Card win over
the Jags. He has good upside this week.
When the chips were down last Sunday, Allen looked for Shakir,
early and often. Of Allen’s 28 completions, a dozen went to Shakir,
who turned those 12 receptions into 82 yards. Nobody else on the
team caught more than three passes. The problem is that Denver
saw this, too, and with the ability to match reigning Defensive
Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II on Shakir in coverage, this
could be a case where the Broncos decide they’re going to make
Buffalo beat them with some combination of Kincaid, Dawson Knox,
Brandin Cooks, and Keon Coleman -- remember that the Bills lost
both Gabe Davis (knee) and Tyrell Shavers (knee) for the year
in their win over Jacksonville. There’s still a spot for Shakir
in DFS lineups, just be wary of considering him as more than a
WR3 in this matchup to avoid using too much of your budget.
Cooks was the team’s second-most effective receiver versus
the Jaguars, posting a 3-58-0 line that included a huge 36-yard
catch on the game-winning drive. Odds are Allen will look his
way again given the state of Buffalo’s injury-ravaged receiver
room; in addition to Davis and Shavers, Joshua Palmer (ankle)
was also placed on IR. Despite that, I’d be wary of trusting
anyone in that Buffalo passing attack beyond Shakir and Kincaid.
Maybe as a desperation lottery ticket if you’ve invested
heavily elsewhere, but even that feels like a considerable risk.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Nix is one of the true Rorschach tests of 2025. He came up just
short of 4,000 yards passing. He accounted for 30 total TDs. He
played every meaningful snap for a team that went 14-3 and claimed
the AFC’s No. 1 seed. And yet... how good is he really? Nix had
a pair of four-touchdown games this season, but he also threw
for one of fewer 11 times. His running was sporadic, too, finishing
with less than 25 yards 12 times. Nix’s previous meeting with
the Bills came in last year’s playoffs, and it was a disaster,
with Denver scoring on their opening drive and then managing just
154 yards the rest of the game. This is a different group with
different expectations, and the Bills are far from airtight defensively,
but Buffalo has pelts on the wall, and they should have plenty
of confidence after dispatching a red-hot Trevor Lawrence this
past Sunday. Still, while there’s plenty of risk with Nix, his
ceiling is at least intriguing.
With only eight teams playing, there aren’t a ton of options
at the tight end position. Despite that, I’m not sure there’s
one among them I like less than Engram -- maybe Tyler Higbee in
LA, but against that porous Bears defense, maybe not. Engram carries
more name value than the likes of Jake Tonges or AJ Barner, though,
so that alone puts him on radars. This is a friendly reminder
that he had a dismal season, topping 50 yards in a game once all
year, and he hasn’t scored since Week 4. You’re better off rolling
the dice on someone else.
Last week, Purdy threw two interceptions and lost a fumble, offset
only partially by a pair of touchdown passes and a clever trick
play that saw Jauan Jennings throw a score to Christian McCaffrey.
Those turnover issues loom large against Seattle. Purdy’s 3.6%
interception rate in 2025 runs directly into a Seahawks defense
that has forced nine interceptions over its last seven games.
Seattle picked him off once in Week 18 and twice in the season’s
opening meeting.
While Purdy did manage 23.6 FPts against Seattle in Week 1 despite
two interceptions, he was held to just 8.5 FPts two weeks ago.
With only 46 combined points scored in the two regular-season
meetings, another low-scoring, defense-driven contest is very
much in play — especially with Seattle allowing the fewest points
per drive in the league. Without George Kittle (Achilles), Purdy
carries a wide range of outcomes and a notably low floor this
weekend.
Wide receiver Ricky Pearsall returned to practice this week in
a limited capacity and appears to have a real chance to suit up.
If active, he steps into a clear target void created by both his
earlier absence and Kittle’s injury. Few receivers have
challenged Seattle’s secondary this season, but Pearsall
did exactly that in Week 1, posting 108 yards on four catches
(7 targets).
Pearsall’s season has been volatile due to injuries, producing
85+ yards in four games and fewer than 20 in three others despite
appearing in just nine contests. There’s real bust risk
here — he could be limited, used as a decoy, or aggravate
the knee — but he also carries the most explosive upside
among San Francisco’s wideouts.
With Kittle sidelined once again, tight end Jake Tonges is expected
to step into the starting role. Tonges has done about as well
as could reasonably be expected given his limited skill set, producing
between 58 and 60 yards three times this season while scoring
five touchdowns on 46 targets.
Seattle’s defense is elite almost everywhere, but tight
end coverage remains its softest spot, having allowed over 100
receptions to the position. While touchdowns have been scarce
(six allowed), Tonges did score against Seattle earlier this year.
He profiles as a viable salary-saving option in DFS tournaments.
Jauan Jennings salvaged his fantasy day last week via a touchdown
pass, another example of Kyle Shanahan manufacturing production
through creativity. Still, that doesn’t necessarily translate
into Jennings being a reliable fantasy start against Seattle.
The Seahawks have been suffocating against wide receivers not
named Puka Nacua (who accounts for 15% of all WR fantasy points
allowed by Seattle this season). Jennings has been nearly erased
in two meetings, totaling just six catches for 51 yards on 11
targets.
While Kittle’s absence opens some opportunities, Pearsall’s
likely return and Purdy’s willingness to throw to Tonges
muddy the target outlook. Jennings has also failed to reach double-digit
fantasy points in any game this season without scoring a touchdown,
and Seattle has allowed just 12 wide receiver touchdowns all year.
All signs point to Jennings being a low-upside, high-risk option.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Zach Charbonnet has scored in both games against the 49ers this
season, despite the two teams combining for just four total touchdowns.
While another grind-it-out affair is likely, even modest scoring
increases Charbonnet’s chances of finding the end zone again.
He now has 12 touchdowns on the season.
The physical nature of this matchup also favors Charbonnet’s
downhill running style, and Seattle appears increasingly committed
to him. Over the last three games, Charbonnet has led the backfield
in snaps, averaging 91 yards from scrimmage and 18.6 FPts/G while
scoring four times.
Ball security matters even more in a tight, low-scoring game,
and Charbonnet’s career-long streak of zero fumbles stands
out on a Seahawks team that has committed 28 turnovers. With control
of the committee, goal-line work, and a favorable home setup,
Charbonnet profiles as a top-five fantasy option this weekend.
Kenneth Walker hasn’t disappeared — he’s averaged
15.3 FPts/G over the past three weeks despite playing fewer than
half the snaps — but he remains the secondary option. While
Walker isn’t the primary culprit in Seattle’s turnover
issues, he’s been less reliable than Charbonnet (one fumble)
and offers less in pass protection.
Walker’s inconsistency has defined his season. He’s
reached double-digit fantasy points just six times compared to
nine for Charbonnet. That variance showed up clearly against San
Francisco: 15.3 FPts in Week 18, but just 3.9 earlier in the year.
With Charbonnet controlling red-zone work and overall usage,
Walker is more likely to land near his floor than his ceiling,
making him a lower-end flex play.
Sam Darnold’s teams are 28–6 over the past two seasons,
and there’s little doubt he helps Seattle win. Unfortunately,
quarterbacks don’t get fantasy points for victories.
Darnold has been a sporadic fantasy contributor, topping 20 FPts
just four times due largely to Seattle’s run-heavy approach.
More concerning, two of his three single-digit fantasy outings
came against San Francisco. The third came against Minnesota,
another former team.
While Darnold has been efficient versus the 49ers — completing
73% of his passes with no interceptions — he’s averaged
just 24.5 attempts per game in those matchups and failed to throw
a touchdown. That game plan is likely to repeat at home.
Add in the report of a minor oblique issue, and Darnold appears
best left out of fantasy lineups in what projects as another tightly
controlled, run-centric contest.
It’s becoming increasingly likely that the Texans will be without
star wide receiver Nico Collins this week after the receiver suffered
a concussion during the team’s victory over the Steelers. With
Collins out, the Texans needed other pass-catchers to step up
and the one who did was veteran Christian Kirk. Kirk, who primarily
works out of the slot, could have a unique opportunity to be the
Texans’ top pass target recipient while also avoiding much of
the attention from the Patriots’ elite outside cornerback duo.
While Marcus Davis, who typically covers out of the slot, is solid
in his own right, he’s much more exploitable than Christian Gonzalez
and Carlton Davis have been this season.
This is likely to be a tough day for the Texans’ offense
in general, but Kirk looks like a great option to far exceed his
average production from the regular season.
Running back Woody Marks and his teammate Nick Chubb have a tough
matchup as they square off against the Patriots and their rock-solid
run defense. New England conceded the fifth-fewest fantasy points
to opposing running backs during the regular season and they held
the Chargers’ running backs to just 30 rushing yards on 12 carries
this past week. Marks himself is coming off of a nice game, as
he carried the ball 19 times for 112 yards and a touchdown against
the Steelers during the Wild Card round.
This is an extremely difficult matchup in a game that is expected
to be low-scoring, so running backs typically aren’t particularly
successful in those situations. However, Marks’ usage in
this past week’s game shows that they’re willing to
feed him the rock in the playoffs.
Nico Collins’ being out will cause ripples down the depth
chart, but it obviously also affects quarterback C.J. Stroud.
Stroud did not look particularly sharp against the Steelers as
he threw an interception and fumbled the ball a whopping five
times, losing two of them. Fortunately, Stroud came through with
250 passing yards and a touchdown, so it wasn’t a completely
disastrous day from a fantasy standpoint, in a game where his
team scored 30 points. Now he faces a New England defense that
held their opponents to 14 or fewer points in three of their past
four games.
Similarly, wide receiver Jayden Higgins also struggled this past
week as he caught just three passes for 39 yards in the victory
over the Steelers. Sure, he’s technically the “WR1”
for the Texans if Collins is out, but that doesn’t necessarily
mean that he’s a one-for-one replacement for the star pass-catcher.
Higgins could feasibly see more looks come his way this week,
but he’s also likely to be locked up by Christian Gonzalez
and Carlton Davis—certainly not the matchup we’re
looking for when it comes to a breakout fantasy performance.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Patriots’ wide receiver Stefon Diggs had a tough go of
it this past week as he caught just two of the five targets that
came his way for 16 yards. It’s easy to overreact to that
performance, but it should also be considered that Diggs had gone
for over 100 yards in two of his previous three games. He’s
also facing a Texans’ defense that relies heavily on man
coverage to stick with opposing receivers while the front four
attacks the quarterback. Many receivers struggle with this, but
Diggs is not one of them. In fact, he’s one of the best
man coverage beaters in recent NFL history. The Texans’
defense is excellent, so we can’t completely dismiss the
possibility that they just shut down the Patriots’ offense
entirely and no one gets much going, but Diggs is the player who
seems most likely to exploit what Houston likes to do defensively.
The other player who fantasy managers should be most interested
in is running back Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson continued to
build off of his late-regular-season success with another big
game in the playoffs as he produced 128 yards of offense on 13
touches, including three receptions. He did all this despite the
Patriots scoring just 16 points. Stevenson has now produced over
15 fantasy points in each of his four straight games, including
the Wild Card round. He’s not seeing a lot more work than TreVeyon
Henderson, but he’s been significantly more productive—and with
the Patriots defense being as good as it has been, there’s a good
chance that they rely heavily on their running game in this one.
If the Patriots do end up continuing to rely heavily on their
running game, then TreVeyon Henderson should have another opportunity
to get back on track. Henderson had a long stretch of double-digit
PPR fantasy point games during the second half of the regular
season, but he fell off in a big way toward the end, which corresponded
with some big performances from Stevenson. Henderson continues
to see solid usage each week, however, so there’s always
the possibility that he takes one (or even multiple) of his touches
for a long touchdown as he’s done many times throughout
his rookie campaign. Henderson is somewhat risky given his recent
floor, but he’s got the ceiling to still make him an interesting
option.
Hunter Henry might be the best fantasy tight end remaining in
the playoffs, so this “fade” isn’t meant to
indicate that fantasy managers should completely avoid him—only
that this matchup may not be particularly great for him. With
the Texans’ pass rush terrorizing opposing quarterbacks,
the Patriots may need to use Henry in a blocking role more often
than they normally do. This doesn’t mean that he can’t
still score near the end zone, but a high target game seems unlikely
in this matchup.
In their Wild Card win over the Panthers, Corum nearly matched
Williams in terms of touches, logging 13 for 58 yards while Williams
racked up 15 for 75 yards and a TD. Despite Sean McVay’s
willingness to split touches between his two backs, I always worry
about coaches shying away from younger players in the biggest
spots. The Panthers game was more competitive than most assumed
it would be. Now, LA finds itself on the doorstep of the NFC Championship
Game. Do they continue to distribute the touches almost evenly,
or do they decide this is a game where they want Williams, who
has proven capable of being a workhorse, to carry the bulk of
the load? There’s enough value in Corum to utilize him from
your flex slot, but there’s some downside, too.
Higbee posted a 5-91-1 line in his return from IR in Week 18,
but he was targeted just three times in Carolina, finishing with
two receptions and 45 yards. The problem here is that LA has three
capable tight ends with Higbee joined by Colby Parkinson, who
caught the game-winning touchdown versus the Panthers, and rookie
Terrance Ferguson. All of them already operate in the shadows
of Nacua and Adams, so when you can’t predict which of the group
will get the looks from Stafford from one week to the next it
makes it incredibly dicey to rely on any of them. If I was hellbent
on rolling with one of LA’s tight ends this weekend, I’d favor
Higbee over Parkinson, but the preferred course of action would
be to avoid the situation entirely.
Back in action for the first time in over a month, Odunze (foot)
caught two of his six targeted passes for 44 yards. Look for him
to be more involved this week. Among the Bears’ top three wideouts,
Odunze is the biggest target at 6-foot-3, 214 pounds with Luther
Burden III and D.J. Moore hovering around the 6-foot mark. That’s
important after the Rams had all kinds of issues covering Carolina’s
duo of Tetairoa McMillan (6-foot-5, 212 pounds) and Jalen Coker
(6-foot-3, 213 pounds) last Saturday as they combined for 14 receptions,
215 yards, and a score. It’s one thing to struggle with an emerging
force like McMillan, but Coker topped 60 yards in a game just
once all season before going off for a 9-134-1 line against LA.
With a game under his belt to shake off the rust, look for Odunze
to deliver value as a WR3 with potential for more.
Is there a harder player to get a read on than Williams? For the
third time in as many matchups with the Packers, the USC product
couldn’t get anything going in the first half -- Chicago
finished the year with six points combined before halftime versus
Green Bay. Once again, however, the Packers faded, and Williams
came to life, throwing for 361 yards and a pair of TDs to make
people forget about the two interceptions and six points the team
had through three quarters. Yes, the Bears’ fourth-quarter
magic has been a real thing this season. It’s also incredibly
dangerous to rely on. Further muddying the waters, we have no
way of knowing which version of LA’s defense will show up.
The Rams authored a stretch of dominance through the middle part
of the year, but they’ve struggled recently, allowing 27
or more in five of their last seven. So, once again, Williams
offers QB1 upside paired with substantial risk.
Outside of a 22-yard catch, Monangai did little in the Wild Card
round, turning eight carries into 27 yards. We also saw Swift
log 15 touches (to nine for Monangai) and be considerably more
effective with those opportunities. LA had their issues defensively
in Carolina, but most of the damage, at least in terms of yardage,
came through the air as the Panthers’ 22 carries covered
just 83 yards (3.8 YPC) with Chuba Hubbard being more effective
than Rico Dowdle. Monangai has had a good rookie year, but in
a tough matchup with uncertain usage he feels like a questionable
option, even as a flex.
