Last week’s question: Who was the most impactful waiver wire addition of 2020?

In my column for Week 16, I asked whether James Robinson was the most impactful waiver acquisition 2020. Although Robinson had a vocal contingent of supporters in the feedback I received, readers generally expressed a preference for two rookie Justins: San Diego’s Justin Herbert and Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson.

We’ll look at the commentary on Herbert and Jefferson momentarily, but I want to start with the only nomination I received for a tight end (from Mande): “Robert Tonyan has been a serviceable replacement for Kittle owners.”

It’s worth reflecting on Mande’s comment because tight end was such an outrageous position in 2020. Travis Kelce was an expensive pick, but he was so dominant that he more than offset the cost of passing on an elite WR or RB. Kittle cost almost as much, but his injury meant that his owners had to settle for a TD-dependent substitute in addition to swallowing the opportunity cost at WR or RB. Anyone who made it to a championship by relying on Tonyan after Kittle went down deserves props.

As for the two rookie Justins, the preference for one over the other seemed to be determined more by league scoring than by scarcity at position. Herbert received slightly more votes, as in this response from GreatPogo:

For me, it was Justin Herbert. He ended up as the #5 QB in my league. Without him, I would have been toast. Robinson, Jefferson, and a couple of others were good too, but Herbert had the most overall points and was rated the highest at his position. We have a unique scoring system, and it certainly worked in his favor too.

Ron wrote in with a reminder that James Robinson was drafted (albeit late) in many leagues, so he doesn’t necessarily qualify as a waiver acquisition. With Robinson out of consideration, he gives the nod to Jefferson.

MysticYooper pulled the trigger early on Herbert in his superflex league and enjoyed the ride:

Herbert has to be the most impactful player picked off the waiver wire. He has gone where no rookie QB has ever gone. Personally, I picked him up after his first week (in a 2 QB league where finding good backups in a long season is difficult) and still not sure to start the following week, yet he ended up carrying my team to the finals in that league.

Benjamin doesn’t mention being in a superflex league, which may explain why he values Jefferson over Herbert despite having acquired both:

I got Justin Jefferson off Waivers Week 3. Can't think of a bigger add from so early. I did also snag Herbert on his bye week and rode him into finals.

Wayne is another Jefferson enthusiast who wants Jalen Hurts to get some love:

I've been streaming QBs most of the year and picked up and stashed Jalen Hurts before the New Orleans game and started him last week and his QB1 performance carried my fantasy team to the title game, so he's the most impactful waiver add and makes a pretty good argument for the upside of streaming QBs.

I also added Justin Jefferson from waivers early in the year and he's been my one solid WR the whole way. Picked up Goedert and Fant as TEs and while not as impactful as Hurts and Jefferson they've had some help the team win moments too.

I only have three players I drafted (Dalvin Cook, Miles Sanders, and J.K. Dobbins). I like to draft RBs early and often as every other position provides more easily streamable waiver value all year and it’s often relatively easy to get the WRs, QBs, and TEs I want on waivers if everyone else is saving their waiver spot or fighting over any opportunity that presents itself at RB (I draft pretty much the opposite of the dubious zero RB strategy, so that I have RB locked down and can work the wire where there is more consistent waiver wire starter level replacement value and less position competition).

My opponent's team is much more a traditional "got there with who they drafted" kind of team so their main somewhat notable waiver add is Corey Davis.

I’m glad Wayne’s thinking about how to approach RBs in the draft (get the good ones early) worked out for him--though the owners of Christian McCaffrey and Saquan Barkley might not be sold.

And speaking of CMC, the most interesting vote I got for Robinson came from an owner who scooped him up (instead of Mike Davis) when CMC went down. Between James and Jalen (rather than Justin and Justin), Francisco got a chance at a title:

James Robinson. Picked him up when CMC went down. Has steadied my RB spot perfectly. Now I hope Jalen can lead me to glory as I picked him up this week.

Although I was unable to include all the comments, my thanks go out to everyone who wrote in concerning 2020’s most impactful waiver wire addition. I also want to thank Mat for sending in a belated response on what makes his keeper league unique:

In our league (Big Ate Fantasy Football League, or BAFFL for short) we have a single player keeper rule. We are a standard redraft league, but each team can keep one player each year from their previous year's team if that player meets the following conditions:

he was drafted in the 8th round or later

or...

was undrafted, but was picked up as a free agent or on waivers

and...

was on your roster the day your season ended

once your last game is played, you cannot pick players up anymore

If you do this, you have to give up your 3rd round pick in the next year's draft.

Three years ago, a new team in our league (a league founder's son) drafted Patrick Mahomes in the 9th round. That was Mahomes' first full season as a starter, and that guy won our championship that year. The next season he kept Mahomes and only had to give up a 3rd rounder to do so…. Three years ago I picked up Nick Chubb after Carlos Hyde flamed out for the Browns; then I gave up my 3rd rounder to keep him last year. It makes the 8th round one of the most interesting rounds in our draft. A lot of rookies go in that round.

Mat’s point obviously isn’t relevant to last week’s question, but it’s such an appealing keeper wrinkle that I wanted to share it before the end of the season. (Readers can certainly still send me suggestions to help leagues set themselves apart, though I won’t be able to share them until next season.)

This Week’s Question: Quick Quarterly Quiz - Final Update

Since most fantasy leagues have their championships in Week 16, the 2020 fantasy season was essentially concluded at the end of regulation on Monday night. The data is in.

Congrats to those who won and to everyone playing along with this year’s series of quick quarterly quizzes (QQQs)--designed to help us spot our strengths and weaknesses by position with 10 short questions repeated each month (from preseason through Week 16). It’s time to calculate our final scores.

In this section of the column, I’ll be reviewing my answers from previous installments of this quiz to calculate my own score. Correct answers from the preseason are worth 4 points each; correct answers from the end of the 1st quarter of the season are worth 3 points each; correct answers from the 2nd quarter of the season are worth 2 points each; and correct answers for the 3rd quarter are worth one point each. Incorrect answers are always worth zero points.

Preseason projections from FFToday ranked the top 5 QBs of 2020 as:
1) Lamar Jackson
2) Patrick Mahomes
3) Dak Prescott
4) Kyler Murray
5) Russell Wilson

1st quarter rankings (based on PPR scoring in the FFToday Staff League on 10/7/20):

1) Dak Prescott
2) Russell Wilson
3) Josh Allen
4) Patrick Mahomes
5) Aaron Rodgers

2nd quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 11/4/20):
1) Patrick Mahomes
2) Russell Wilson
3) Kyler Murray
4) Josh Allen
5) Tom Brady

3rd quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 12/2/20):
1) Patrick Mahomes
2) Kyler Murray
3) Russell Wilson
4) Aaron Rodgers
5) DeShaun Watson

4th quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 12/30/20):
1) Patrick Mahomes
2) Josh Allen
3) Kyler Murray
4) Aaron Rodgers
5) Deshaun Watson

Question 1) Which of these QBs do you consider most likely to remain in the top 5 through Week 16? [Note: You can answer any question with ‘none’ or ‘all.’ Answers are updated at quarterly intervals throughout the season and cannot be repeated (except for ‘none’ or ‘all’ which are always available).]

My preseason answer: Mahomes (correct for 4 points).
My first quarter answer: Wilson (incorrect for 0 points).
My second quarter answer: Brady (incorrect for 0 points).
My third quarter answer: Murray (correct for 1 points).

Question 2) Which of these QBs do you consider least likely to remain in the top 5 through Week 16?

My preseason answer: Murray (incorrect for 0 points).
My first quarter answer: Rodgers (incorrect for 0 points).
My second quarter answer: Allen (incorrect for 0 points).
My third quarter answer: Watson (incorrect for 0 points).

QB score: 5/20.
QB lesson: Apart from being terrible at evaluating QBs generally this year, I grossly underestimated Watson in the absence of Will Fuller.

Preseason projections from FFToday ranked the top 5 RBs of 2020 as:
1) Christian McCaffrey
2) Saquon Barkley
3) Dalvin Cook
4) Ezekiel Elliott
5) Derrick Henry

1st quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 10/7/20):
1) Alvin Kamara
2) Aaron Jones
3) Dalvin Cook
4) Ezekiel Elliott
5) Chris Carson

2nd quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 11/4/20):
1) Alvin Kamara
2) Dalvin Cook
3) Derrick Henry
4) Ezekiel Elliott
5) James Robinson

3rd quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 12/2/20)
1) Alvin Kamara
2) Dalvin Cook
3) Derrick Henry
4) James Robinson
5) Antonio Gibson

4th quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 12/30/20)
1) Alvin Kamara
2) Dalvin Cook
3) Derrick Henry
4) James Robinson
5) Aaron Jones

Question 3) Which of these RBs do you consider most likely to remain in the top 5 through Week 16?

My preseason answer: Elliott (incorrect for 0 points).
My first quarter answer: Kamara (correct for 3 points).
My second quarter answer: Cook (correct for 2 points).
My third quarter answer: Henry (correct for 1 point).

Question 4) Which of these RBs do you consider least likely to remain in the top 5 through Week 16?

My preseason answer: Henry (incorrect for 0 points).
My first quarter answer: Carson (correct for 3 points).
My second quarter answer: Robinson (incorrect for 0 points).
My third quarter answer: Gibson (correct for 1 point).

RB score: 10/20.
RB lesson: I expected workhorses like Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry to wear down in 2020. I was half right.

Preseason projections from FFToday ranked the top 5 WRs of 2020 as:
1) Michael Thomas
2) Davante Adams
3) Julio Jones
4) Tyreek Hill
5) DeAndre Hopkins

1st quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 10/7/20):
1) Amari Cooper
2) DeAndre Hopkins
3) Calvin Ridley
4) Tyler Lockett
5) Stefon Diggs

2nd quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 11/4/20):
1) Tyler Lockett
2) Calvin Ridley
3) D.K. Metcalf
4) DeAndre Hopkins
5) Tyreek Hill

3rd quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 12/2/20)
1) Tyreek Hill
2) Davante Adams
3) D.K. Metcalf
4) Keenan Allen
5) Stefon Diggs

4th quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 12/30/20)
1) Davante Adams
2) Tyreek Hill
3) Stefon Diggs
4) DeAndre Hopkins
5) Calvin Ridley

Question 5) Which of these WRs do you consider most likely to remain in the top 5 through Week 16?

My preseason answer: Jones (incorrect for 0 points).
My first quarter answer: Hopkins (correct for 3 points).
My second quarter answer: Lockett (incorrect for 0 points).
My third quarter answer: Adams (correct for 1 point).

Question 6) Which of these WRs do you consider least likely to remain in the top 5 through Week 16?

My preseason answer: Hill (incorrect for 0 points).
My first quarter answer: Cooper (correct for 3 points).
My second quarter answer: Metcalf (correct for 2 points).
My third quarter answer: Diggs (incorrect for 0 points).

WR total: 9/20.
WR lesson: I shied away unnecessarily from volatile situations (Hill’s boom-or-bust potential; Diggs’ connection to a QB that I regarded as streaky).

Preseason projections from FFToday ranked the top 5 TEs of 2020 as:
1) Travis Kelce
2) George Kittle
3) Zach Ertz
4) Mark Andrews
5) Darren Waller

1st quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 10/7/20):
1) Travis Kelce
2) Robert Tonyan
3) Darren Waller
4) Noah Fant
5) Mark Andrews

2nd quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 11/4/20):
1) Travis Kelce
2) Darren Waller
3) George Kittle
4) T. J. Hockenson
5) Robert Tonyan

3rd quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 12/2/20):
1) Travis Kelce
2) Darren Waller
3) T.J. Hockenson
4) Robert Tonyan
5) Mark Andrews

4th quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 12/30/20):
1) Travis Kelce
2) Darren Waller
3) T.J. Hockenson
4) Robert Tonyan
5) Logan Thomas

Question 7) Which of these TEs do you consider most likely to remain in the top 5 through Week 16?

My preseason answer: Kelce (correct for 4 points).
My first quarter answer: Tonyan (correct for 3 points).
My second quarter answer: Hockenson (correct for 2 points).
My third quarter answer: Waller (correct for 1 point).

Question 8) Which of these TEs do you consider least likely to remain in the top 5 through Week 16?

My preseason answer: Waller (incorrect for 0 points).
My first quarter answer: Andrews (correct for 3 points).
My second quarter answer: Kittle (correct for 2 points).
My third quarter answer: None (correct for 1 point because Andrews had been used and the other 4 remained in the top 5).

TE score: 16/20.
TE lesson: Fantasy TE value was fairly easy to predict because the position was a wasteland in 2020 made even wastelandier by Kittle’s injury.

Preseason projections from FFToday ranked the top 5 defenses of 2020 as:
1) Rams
2) Steelers
3) Chiefs
4) Patriots
5) 49ers

1st quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 10/7/20):
1) Colts
2) Ravens
3) Buccaneers
4) Chiefs
5) Patriots

2nd quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 11/4/20):
1) Ravens
2) Colts
3) Steelers
4) Buccaneers
5) Chiefs

3rd quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 12/2/20):
1) Steelers
2) Dolphins
3) Colts
4) Ravens
5) Saints

4th quarter rankings (based on FFTSL scoring on 12/30/20):
1) Steelers
2) Dolphins
3) Colts
4) Rams
5) Ravens

Question 9) Which of these defenses do you consider most likely to remain in the top 5 through Week 16?

My preseason answer: Steelers (correct for 4 points).
My first quarter answer: Colts (correct for 3 points).
My second quarter answer: Ravens (correct for 2 points).
My third quarter answer: Dolphins (correct for 1 point).

Question 10) Which of these defenses do you consider least likely to remain in the top 5 through Week 16?

My preseason answer: Patriots (correct for 4 points).
My first quarter answer: Chiefs (correct for 3 points).
My second quarter answer: Buccaneers (correct for 2 points).
My third quarter answer: Saints (correct for 1 point).

Defense score: 20/20.
Defense lesson: I will continue to stream defenses successfully. Team units are much easier to read than individual players.

If you kept up with your own quiz selections each quarter, you can post your answers publicly in the comment section below or email them to me. Maybe someone out there is as bad at picking defenses as I am at picking QBs. If so, let me know about it.

I’m also eager to hear from anyone who had Alvin Kamara on their championship team in 2020 and still managed to lose. If you know anyone who fits that description, please let them know that I would love to share their story next season. (Screenshots or it didn’t happen!)

Survivor Pool Pick (Courtesy of Matthew Schiff)

To those who read the musings that I have had the pleasure of sharing with Mike Davis for almost 18 years now, I wish to thank you and wish you a prosperous, happy, and healthy 2021. And if you are in the final week of your survivor pool, good luck. You have two AFC games that are considered the “best” choices by Vegas--and one NFC game (Washington versus Philadelphia) that may be your difference maker.

3: Indianapolis over Jacksonville: 9-7 (BAL, KC, ari, sf, LAR, min, was, PHI, PIT, GB, mia, NYG, LV, no, TEN, cle)

It’s fitting for the Colts to finish the season against a Jacksonville team that got its only win of the year vs. Indy in Week 1 (a game notable for nipping many survivor pool seasons in the bud). However, that game was in Jacksonville, and the Colts know better than anyone that they would be in control of their own destiny and seeding if they had just won that game. The Colts defense has been erratic this season--smothering offenses early in the season, but giving up over 20 points a game in each of the last six games (despite scoring three defensive touchdowns in that span). Fortunately, we don’t have to guess how well Indy’s defense will play when we have every reason to expect Jacksonville (who already lost to the Jets) to put up one more L for Lawrence.

#2: Philadelphia over Washington: 10-6 (ind, ARI, TB, BAL, sf, MIA, LAC, KC, NE, CLE, min, sf, sea, GB, lar, BUF)

Of all the picks this week, this is my FAVORITE. Why? Because Jalen Hurts has something to prove. On Sunday night, he can show the country that if Philadelphia had made the switch earlier, the Eagles could easily have been crowned division champs in a very winnable NFC East. Meanwhile, Washington just cut their top pick (18th overall) in the 2019 draft, a sure sign of a team that is too busy trying to stop the bleeding to think about trying to find a pulse. Yes, Alex Smith may be ready, and if he plays, pick either of my other games. But a sidelined (or even a hobbled) Smith should give the advantage to the E-A-G-L-E-S!

#1: Tennessee over Houston: 14-2 (KC, GB, IND, LAR, BAL, ne, BUF, TB, HOU, LV, LAC, CLE, MIN, SEA, pit, CHI)

Few would have predicted that this final game of the season between rivals in the AFC South would mean so little to one of the teams. Since the departure of DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona, Deshaun Watson has basically been a one-man show. Last week, however, David Johnson showed flashes of his old electrifying self, so perhaps he can take some of the weight off Watson’s shoulders. But without Will Fuller and Randall Cobb, it will be tough for the Texan offense to keep up with Derrick Henry. The Titans need this game to win the division as they are tied with the Colts (who play the woeful Jags). As such, expect the Titans to bring the full complement of weapons in this final game of the regular season.

[Editor’s note: Although Matthew Schiff sticks to the subject of survivor pool picks in this column, he is a dedicated fantasy enthusiast who just won a championship (thanks to Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs) after a 10-year drought in his most important league. If you enjoy his picks, please consider leaving him a note of congratulations below. Congrats from your friends at FFToday, Matthew.]