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Prediction: Patriots 24, Dolphins 17
by Mike Krueger | Follow @FF_Today

Player Rankings and Projections

Miami Dolphins
Rank  Player Projections
QB 17 Ryan Tannehill Pass: 240, 2 TD Rush: 0, 0
RB 26 Lamar Miller Rush: 50, 0 TD Rec: 1-10, 0
RB 38 Daniel Thomas Rush: 40, 0 TD Rec: 0-0, 0
WR 22 Mike Wallace Rec: 5-70, 0 TD
WR 32 Brian Hartline Rec: 5-60, 0 TD
WR 46 Brandon Gibson Rec: 3-40, 0 TD
TE 10 Charles Clay Rec: 5-50, 1 TD
K 19 Caleb Sturgis FG: 1/1 XP: 2/2
DEF 13 Defense / ST  
 
New England Patriots
Rank  Player Projections
QB 9 Tom Brady Pass: 270, 2 TD Rush: 0, 0
RB 8 Stevan Ridley Rush: 90, 1 TD Rec: 3-20, 0
RB 43 Brandon Bolden Rush: 20, 0 TD Rec: 2-20, 0
 WR 26 Danny Amendola Rec: 5-50, 0 TD
 WR 31 Julian Edelman Rec: 4-40, 0 TD
 WR 33 Kenbrell Thompkins Rec: 3-40, 0 TD
 WR 58 Aaron Dobson Rec: 2-20, 0 TD
TE 1 Rob Gronkowski Rec: 8-80, 1 TD
K 6 Stephen Gostkowski FG: 1/1 XP: 3/3
DEF 5 Defense / ST  

Game Notes

Dolphins Club is 2-1 on road this season... QB Ryan Tannehill (4,871) needs 129 yards to reach 5,000 career. Had career-best 3 TD passes last week. Team is 8-1 when he has 90+ rating... Offense rushed for season-best 120 yards vs. Buf. last week...RB DANIELTHOMAS averaged season-best 5 yards per carry vs. Buf... WR Mike Wallace has 15 receptions for 206 yards (13.7 avg.) with 2 TDs in 2 career games vs. NE. 18 of WR Brandon Gibson's 29 catches this season have been for 1st downs. Gibson tied career-high with 2 TD receptions last week. 3 of WR Brian Hartline's 4 career games with 100+ receiving yards have been on road... TE Charles Clay aims for 4th straight game with TD catch... DE Cameron Wake has 5.5 sacks in 8 career games vs. NE. DT Randy Starks has 25 sacks with Mia., most by Dolphins DT... LB Olivier Vernon seeks 4th game in row with sack. LB Philip Wheeler leads team with 43 tackles... S Chris Clemons posted 1st INT of season last week.

Patriots Aim for 14th straight win vs. AFC East at home... Seek 5th straight win at home vs. Mia... Since '10, Patriots are 24-3 (.889) at home... QB Tom Brady (342) needs TD pass to surpass HOFer FRAN TARKENTON (342) for 4th-most in NFL history. In past 6 wins vs. Mia., Brady has passed for 1,695 yards with 11 TDs vs. 2 INTs & 102.4 rating. Passed for career-best 517 yards vs. Dolphins on 9/12/11... RB Stevan Ridley has 3 rush TDs in past 2 games vs. Mia. RB Brandon Bolden posted 1st rush TD of season last week... TE Rob Gronkowski (114) registered 10th 100-yard receiving game of career last week, most by TE in franchise history. Gronkowski (195) needs 5 catches to reach 200 career. Has 3 TD receptions in past 4 vs. Mia. Since 2011, Gronkowski has 28 TD rec., most among NFL TEs... WR-PR Julian Edelman has career-best in catches (46) & rec. yards (455) in' 13. Edelman had 94-yard PR-TD vs. Mia. on 1/2/11... Defense has forced turnover in 34 consecutive games, longest active streak in NFL... DE Chandler Jones has career-best 6.5 sacks in 2013... Rookie DT CHRIS JONES had career-high 2 sacks last week. Ranks 1st among NFL rookies with 3.5 sacks... S Steve Gregory had INT in last game vs. Mia... Rookie CB Logan Ryan had 79-yard INT-return TD last week.


Results and Schedule

Miami Dolphins
Week Date Opp H/A Score Dif
1 2013-09-08 CLE A W 23-10 +13
2 2013-09-15 IND A W 24-20 +4
3 2013-09-22 ATL H W 27-23 +4
4 2013-09-30 NO A L 17-38 -21
5 2013-10-06 BAL H L 23-26 -3
6   Bye      
7 2013-10-20 BUF H L 21-23 -2
8 2013-10-27 NE A    
9 2013-10-31 CIN H    
10 2013-11-11 TB A    
11 2013-11-17 SD H    
12 2013-11-24 CAR H    
13 2013-12-01 NYJ A    
14 2013-12-08 PIT A    
15 2013-12-15 NE H    
16 2013-12-22 BUF A    
17 2013-12-29 NYJ H    
   

New England Patriots
Week Date Opp H/A Score Dif
1 2013-09-08 BUF A W 23-21 +2
2 2013-09-12 NYJ H W 13-10 +3
3 2013-09-22 TB H W 23-3 +20
4 2013-09-29 ATL A W 30-23 +7
5 2013-10-06 CIN A L 6-13 -7
6 2013-10-13 NO H W 30-27 +3
7 2013-10-20 NYJ A L 27-30 -3
8 2013-10-27 MIA H    
9 2013-11-03 PIT H    
10   Bye      
11 2013-11-18 CAR A    
12 2013-11-24 DEN H    
13 2013-12-01 HOU A    
14 2013-12-08 CLE H    
15 2013-12-15 MIA A    
16 2013-12-22 BAL A    
17 2013-12-29 BUF H    

Injury Report

Miami Dolphins
Probable  MLB Dannell Ellerbe (shoulder)
 WR Brandon Gibson (shoulder)
 CB Brent Grimes (back)
 WLB Koa Misi (knee)
 CB Dimitri Patterson (groin)
 QB Ryan Tannehill (shoulder)
 DE Cameron Wake (knee)
IR  TE Dustin Keller (knee, 8/20/2013)
 DT Vaughn Martin (undisclosed, 9/24/2013)
   

New England Patriots
Out  DT Tommy Kelly (knee)
 RB Leon Washington (ankle)
Questionable  WR Danny Amendola (concussion)
 RB Brandon Bolden (knee)
 WR Julian Edelman (thigh)
 TE Michael Hoomanawanui (knee)
 CB Aqib Talib (hip)
 FS Tavon Wilson (hamstring)
Probable  CB Kyle Arrington (groin)
 QB Tom Brady (shoulder)
 TE Rob Gronkowski (forearm)
 FS Devin McCourty (shoulder)
 DE Rob Ninkovich (groin)
 WR Matt Slater (wrist)
IR  WLB Jerod Mayo (shoulder, 10/16/2013)
 RB Shane Vereen (wrist, 9/10/2013)
 DT Vince Wilfork (achilles-tendon, 10/3/2013)
 SS Adrian Wilson (hamstring, 8/31/2013)

Offense Stats Comparison

  MIA
 Offense 
NE
 Offense 
NFL
 Avg. 
 Adv. 
Points for 22.7 23.3 23.0 NE
Rushing yards 102.0 111.3 109.1 NE
Rushing yards per attempt 4.62 4.07 4.09 MIA
Completion % 60.2% 55.4% 61.1% MIA
Passing yards 227.7 205.0 242.9 MIA
Passing yards per completion 10.58 10.09 11.03 MIA
Passing yards per attempt 6.37 5.59 6.74 MIA
Interceptions 1.0 0.8 0.9 NE
Fumbles lost 1.0 0.0 0.7 NE
Sacks allowed 4.7 3.0 2.7 NE
3rd down conversions 34.4% 28.2% 37.8% MIA
4th down conversions 33.3% 42.9% 43.4% NE
Time of possession 26:40 28:29 48:41 NE
  Defense Stats Comparison

  MIA
 Defense 
NE
 Defense 
NFL
 Avg. 
 Adv. 
Points against 24.0 18.3 23.0 NE
Rushing yards 118.7 129.8 109.1 MIA
Rushing yards per attempt 3.80 4.05 4.09 MIA
Completion % 64.1% 54.0% 61.1% NE
Passing yards 265.7 212.8 242.9 NE
Passing yards per completion 11.63 11.71 11.03 MIA
Passing yards per attempt 7.46 6.32 6.74 NE
INT return 1.0 1.0 0.9 -
Fumble recoveries 0.7 0.5 0.7 MIA
Sacks 2.3 3.3 2.7 NE
3rd down conversions 44.6% 40.6% 37.8% NE
4th down conversions 0.0% 14.3% 43.4% MIA
Time of possession 33:20 31:30 48:41 NE

Special Teams Stats Comparison

   MIA   NE  NFL
 Avg. 
 Adv. 
Yards per punt return 4.5 11.7 9.0 NE
Yards per kick return 27.0 24.1 24.2 MIA
Yards allowed per punt return 9.1 8.2 9.0 NE
Yards allowed per kick return 26.8 21.3 24.2 NE
  Misc Stats Comparison

   MIA   NE  NFL
 Avg. 
 Adv. 
Penalties 3.3 5.0 6.4 MIA
Penalty yards 23.3 51.5 55.8 MIA

Note: Team statistics are shown as the average per game through Weeks 2 to 7 of the 2013 season after deducting the best and worst value from the data set. The exception is yards per rush attempt, completion %, yards per pass completion, yards per pass attempt, 3rd and 4th down conversions, special teams and the NFL averages, which are each calculated based on totals through Weeks 2 to 7 with no adjustment.

Weather


Team vs. Team History

Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
 Season   Week   Date   Vis   Home   Score   Winner 
2000 4 2000-09-24 NE MIA 3-10 MIA
2000 17 2000-12-24 MIA NE 27-24 MIA
2001 4 2001-10-07 NE MIA 10-30 MIA
2001 15 2001-12-22 MIA NE 13-20 NE
2002 5 2002-10-06 NE MIA 13-26 MIA
2002 17 2002-12-29 MIA NE 24-27 NE
2003 7 2003-10-19 NE MIA 19-13 NE
2003 14 2003-12-07 MIA NE 0-12 NE
2004 5 2004-10-10 MIA NE 10-24 NE
2004 15 2004-12-20 NE MIA 28-29 MIA
2005 10 2005-11-13 NE MIA 23-16 NE
2005 17 2006-01-01 MIA NE 28-26 MIA
2006 5 2006-10-08 MIA NE 10-20 NE
2006 14 2006-12-10 NE MIA 0-21 MIA
2007 7 2007-10-21 NE MIA 49-28 NE
2007 16 2007-12-23 MIA NE 7-28 NE
2008 3 2008-09-21 MIA NE 38-13 MIA
2008 12 2008-11-23 NE MIA 48-28 NE
2009 9 2009-11-08 MIA NE 17-27 NE
2009 13 2009-12-06 NE MIA 21-22 MIA
2010 4 2010-10-04 NE MIA 41-14 NE
2010 17 2011-01-02 MIA NE 7-38 NE
2011 1 2011-09-12 NE MIA 38-24 NE
2011 16 2011-12-24 MIA NE 24-27 NE
2012 13 2012-12-02 NE MIA 23-16 NE
2012 17 2012-12-30 MIA NE 0-28 NE

Note: Only playoff games from the 2004 to 2010 seasons are included in the team vs. team history. Playoff games from seasons prior to 2004 are not currently included in the database.