Passing
Game Thoughts: The Panthers’ offense has been on
fire the last two weeks despite facing two of the best defenses
in the NFC. In the Super Bowl they will now face the league’s
top ranked defense, the Denver Broncos. Likely MVP Cam Newton
didn’t have a huge game against Seattle in the divisional
round but threw for 335 yards and 2 touchdowns while rushing for
47 yards a two more scores in the NFC Championship game against
Arizona. Cam came out sharp hitting Philly Brown for 86 yards
for his first touchdown pass and hit rookie Devin Funchess in
the endzone later in the game with the rout already on. Newton
is coming off a career year where he threw for 35 touchdowns while
running for another 10, despite losing the team’s best wide
receiver, Kelvin Benjamin, to a torn ACL in the preseason.
Outside of veteran tight end Greg Olsen, who once again had a
great season (77-1104-7), Newton is making stars out of a ragtag
collection of pass catchers. The wideouts include Ted Ginn Jr.,
who had never been anything more than an excellent kick returner
in his other NFL stops, “washed up” veteran Jerricho
Cotchery, the unheralded Brown and the raw rookie Funchess. Ginn
has been the most dangerous and consistent weapon. He returned
to Carolina after a one year stint in Arizona, and has been a
godsend for Newton with his deep, play-making ability. Ginn averaged
16.8 yards per reception and scored 10 TDs during the regular
season. Last week he opened the scoring on a nifty 22-yard run
off of a reverse and nearly scored on a 39-yard punt return before
stumbling to the ground. However, this has really been a passing
offense that hasn’t relied on one “go to” receiver
and Newton has done a masterful job of spreading the ball around,
making it difficult for any defense to lock up one player and
shut the passing game down.
The Broncos finished the regular season with the top ranked pass
defense in the NFL and have made life difficult for two of the
AFC’s best quarterbacks in Roethlisberger and Brady during
the last two weeks. The team incredibly allowed less than 200
passing yards per game during the regular season and yielded only
19 passing touchdowns. Chris Harris and Aqib Talib shut down opposing
wideouts most weeks, but it was the devastating pass rush led
by Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware, which led the league with 52
sacks, that made life difficult for opposing quarterbacks. Last
week Tom Brady was hit 20 times and was constantly under siege
forcing him into uncharacteristic multiple turnovers. Harris and
Talib should be able to matchup with any of the Carolina receivers
without too much concern, but the pass rush may be up against
its toughest challenge of the season when it goes up against a
solid offensive line and the extremely mobile 6’4”,
245 pound Newton. Unlike Brady, Newton will not be a target in
the pocket and the read option aspect of the Carolina offense
could work against the aggressive pass rush. Defensive coordinator
Wade Phillips had a perfect game plan last week and will need
to go back to the drawing board during the two-week break leading
up to the game. Don’t be surprised if the speedy Miller
is used more as a “spy” on Newton than a pass rusher,
as he is one of the rare defensive players whose combination of
size and speed is a favorable matchup against Newton.
Running Game Thoughts: It is rare to feature the same player in
both the “Passing Game Thoughts” and “Running
Game Thoughts” sections but Cam Newton is a very rare player.
With 636 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns, the quarterback
is also the team’s most dangerous weapon in the running
game. At 245 pounds, his size rivals many of the linebackers that
attempt to take him down and he’s every bit as fast and
athletic as a good portion of the league’s defensive backs.
He finished second on the team to running back Jonathan Stewart
in rushing yards. Stewart finished the season with 989 yards and
6 touchdowns in 13 games and looked as good as he has in many
years. Stewart came into the league as an Adrian Peterson level
talent, but being stuck in a timeshare with De’Angelo Williams,
and suffering for many seasons with lower leg injuries has hampered
his career statistics. At 235 pounds, he’s a punishing runner
and benefits from being part of the read-option tandem with Newton,
which makes defenses hesitate at the point of contact just enough
to allow him to use his deceptive speed to blow by them. Stewart
is coming off his second best season at age 28 and ran for 83
yards in the NFC championship game last week. He has been the
bellcow back for the team and will need to be a vital piece of
the gameplan in order for Carolina to take home the franchise’s
first Lombardi Trophy.
The Broncos are also very strong against the run. The team limited
the opposition to 83.6 yards per game this season with only 10
rushing touchdowns allowed. Last week the Patriots became too
one dimensional, allowing the Broncos to pin their ears back and
go after Brady and as a result, Brady had one of the worst games
of his career. This shouldn’t be an issue for the Panthers
as their offensive philosophy will not allow them to abandon the
running game, and their read-option concepts could exploit an
overly aggressive pass rush. The Panther’s offensive line
is a solid run blocking unit and with Newton and Stewart (and
perhaps even 250-pounder Mike Tolbert) pounding the line, the
Panthers could wear down this defense into submission especially
if they have a lead heading into the fourth quarter.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Peyton Manning has a chance to pull a John
Elway and ride out to the sunset as a Super Bowl winner. Manning
of course, struggled mightily during the regular season before
ultimately missing six games from Week 11 through Week 16 due
to a plantar fascia injury. Brock Osweiler went 4-2 as the interim
starter, and that made it appear likely that the Manning era in
Denver had come to an end. However, Manning replaced a struggling
Osweiler early in the second half in Week 17 and led the Broncos
to a come from behind victory, albeit on the back of only 69 yards
passing with no touchdowns. On the season Manning had 9 touchdown
passes and 17 interceptions and appeared to be at the end of his
line, but while he hasn’t exactly lit it up during the playoffs
he has played much better and the rest has done his arm some good.
He completed 17-of-32 passes last week for 176 yards and two touchdowns
to tight end Owen Daniels. Daniels beat linebacker Jamie Collins
twice on nifty double moves with both scores coming within the
game’s first 17 minutes. Manning clearly doesn’t have
much left in his arm, but his mastery of the offense and his ability
to read opposing defenses allows him to make the correct calls
and his experience in big games will provide a lift to his team
on Super Bowl Sunday.
Speaking of struggling, Demaryius Thomas is coming off one of
his worst seasons as a pro and his woes have continued during
the post-season. He caught only 2-of-7 passes last week finishing
with 12 yards in the AFC Championship game and wasn’t much
better in the divisional round. While the team will surely need
him to step up to give them a chance to beat the Panthers, a matchup
with one of the league’s top cornerbacks in Josh Norman
isn’t going to help matters. Emmanuel Sanders isn’t
faring much better and was Manning’s most targeted wide
receiver last week. Sanders should see Robert McClain when he’s
lined up outside and veteran Cortland Finnegan when he kicks into
the slot. Both matchups could be favorable for the quick sure
handed wide out. Tight end Vernon Davis was acquired at the trade
deadline to give the team another weapon but his suspect hands
and lack of route running prowess have made him an afterthought
in Denver. Davis has been in the Super Bowl recently with the
49ers but it’s hard to imagine him being a major contributor
this time around. The Broncos will need to protect Manning behind
a suspect offensive line by calling a conservative short passing
offense and hoping that the running game will continue to perform
at a high enough level to keep the chains moving.
Manning struggled in the second half of last week’s game
and it doesn’t get any easier against the Panthers’
11th ranked pass defense. During the regular season the Panthers
gave up 234.5 passing yards per game and 21 passing touchdowns
while grabbing 24 interceptions. Last week Carolina overwhelmed
MVP candidate Carson Palmer forcing him into one of the worst
games of his career as he turned the ball over six times. Obviously
the Broncos cannot survive Manning turning the ball over at that
pace, and with his outrageous regular season turnover rate not
so far in the rearview mirror, it would be an interesting situation
if Head Coach Gary Kubiak would insert Osweiler into the game
if Manning did struggle early. Manning should be determined enough
not to let that happen.
Running Game Thoughts: C.J. Anderson had a disappointing regular
season but seemed to find some life down the stretch. He has been
a key cog to the team’s playoff success and will be a vital
part of the Broncos’ Super Bowl chances. He’s gained
155 yards and scored a touchdown in the two playoff games and
has looked far more effective than his committee partner Ronnie
Hillman. The pair seemed resurrected when Osweiler first took
over from Manning and teams finally had to respect the deep ball,
but once teams learned that Brock’s strong arm didn’t
necessarily equate to a strong downfield passing game, the safeties
crept back up again and the running game struggled. Since Manning
has been back, his audibles and field vision has helped re-establish
their ground game dominance.
With Manning still not able to throw the ball deep, Carolina will
likely creep safety Roman Harper up close to the line of scrimmage
and try and clog up Denver’s running lanes. The Panthers’
run defense was stout during the regular season, which could force
the Broncos to the air more than they would like, especially if
the Panthers jump out quickly. The Panthers allowed only 88.4
rushing yards per game, and only 11 rushing touchdowns on the
season. With two top defenses squaring off, the Broncos will need
to win this battle and keep the game close. Falling behind early
and needing to play catch-up is likely too much to ask of Manning
at this stage of his career, although I wouldn’t count the
Sheriff out.
Passing
Game Thoughts: When Peyton Manning was drafted by the Colts
in 1998, Cam Newton was 9 years old. Stealing a line from Will
Smith, this Super Bowl pits “Old and Busted” against
the “New Hotness.” This season was all about the new
hotness as Cam Newton took a team that lost its top receiver in
the preseason all the way to the last game of the year and did
so in dominating fashion. Newton is all but certain to take home
an MVP trophy as he accounted for 45 touchdowns and threw just
10 interceptions, a career low. He did this with Ted Ginn, Philly
Brown, and Jerricho Cotchery as his top receivers. In both playoff
games this postseason, the Panthers dominated from the opening
kickoff. While they clearly eased off the pedal against the Seahawks,
that game was never really in doubt. Realizing that game was closer
than it should’ve been, they decided to prove they could
do it from wire to wire against the Cardinals, with Newton shredding
the Cardinals for 335 yards in the air, 47 on the ground, and
4 total touchdowns.
Greg Olsen continues to serve as Newton’s top target and
either Ginn or Brown serves as a complementary piece. Predicting
which non-Olsen pass catcher Newton will focus on is a guessing
game. In the biggest game of them all, the matchup could not possibly
be tougher against the top defense in the league. Tom Brady’s
late 4th quarter heroic touchdown to Gronk is the only passing
touchdown the Broncos allowed in their two postseason games. They
have been getting to the passer and causing havoc for opposing
quarterbacks. Including the regular season, the Broncos have allowed
20 passing touchdowns in 18 games. This is probably the best defense
we’ve seen since the 2002 Bucs. Newton will have to use
his elusiveness to avoid the Broncos’ menacing pass rush
and create opportunities against a stout defensive unit. But if
given the choice between the two QBs in this game, it’s
Newton and it’s not close.
Running Game Thoughts: The Panthers’ running game has largely
been Cam Newton. He’s the one scoring the touchdowns. However,
Jonathan Stewart had a solid year, rushing for 989 yards and 6
touchdowns. On a different team with a different quarterback,
he likely would’ve gone 1000-10. He is going to the lead
the team in carries, which won’t do much good against the
best run defense in the league. Yeah, this Broncos defense is
that good. The Broncos allowed a league low 3.3 yards per carry
this season and have carried that success into the postseason,
allowing 3.6 yards per carry over their two games. Stewart is
the safest bet for volume out of all the backs in this game, but
will struggle to produce any worthy numbers unless he can find
a way into the end zone. Despite not allowing running backs to
really go anywhere this season, the Broncos have allowed 12 rushing
scores in 18 games. No player has a good matchup in this game
so JStew remains the top option at running back.
Passing
Game Thoughts: In the new era of the NFL where rules are
implemented to “turn off” defense, we still find ourselves
headed for a Super Bowl featuring the top 2 defenses in the league.
This is a far bigger problem for Old Man Peyton. When the Colts
drafted No.18, I was in fourth grade. To put that in perspective,
when the Lions drafted Calvin Johnson, I was a sophomore in college.
While I believe Manning retires after Sunday, win or lose, the
fact that Calvin appears to have retired before Manning is astounding
and a reminder of how old Manning really is. He is still without
a doubt one of the greatest of all time, but this year’s
version of Manning is arguably the worst QB to start a Super Bowl
since Trent Dilfer for the 2000 Ravens. Yes, I am saying I would
take 2006 Rex Grossman over 2015 Peyton Manning. This Broncos
team has been carried by its defense. Manning finished the regular
season second in the league in interceptions with 17. He missed
the equivalent of 7 full games.
Demaryius Thomas had what is considered a down year, yet still
managed 105 catches for 1304 yards and 6 touchdowns, albeit while
dropping an obscene amount of passes. Manny Sanders had a disappointing
76 catches, but still topped 1100 yards and also had 6 touchdowns.
Neither has done much this postseason, but Thomas has completely
vanished, amassing just 52 yards on 6 catches in two scoreless
games. Both he and Sanders will have to be more involved if Denver
is to compete with Carolina. The Panthers led the NFL in interceptions
this season with 24 and finished top 10 in opposing completion
percentage, touchdowns allowed, and yards per attempt against
(where they finished tied with Denver for No.1). Manning has been
asked to primarily manage the game, beating opponents with his
brain rather than his arm. So far so good as he’s avoided
throwing a pick this postseason. If the Broncos are to win this
game, expect nothing more than around 200 yards and a touchdown
from Manning as the defense and ground game carry the load.
Running Game Thoughts: During the regular season, this Broncos
running game was a headache. C.J. Anderson was ineffective and
Ronnie Hillman was inconsistent. But something changed after the
bye week. Anderson started running more efficiently and his yards
per carry spiked and he forced his way into a timeshare with Hillman.
Although Anderson has been more effective down the stretch, that
timeshare hasn’t gone away. Anderson and Hillman received
the exact same numbers of carries over the final two games of
the regular season and the postseason split has been 31-27 in
favor of Anderson. I fully respect the multiple back system (as
annoying as it is for fantasy owners) in that it is essential
to keep players fresh and healthy, but this is the Super Bowl.
One game. After this week, players have six months to rest up.
Anderson has averaged 4.6 yards per carry in the playoffs. Hillman
has averaged 2.0 yards per carry. If that disparity in effectiveness
continues, Gary Kubiak needs to just leave Anderson in the game.
Peyton Manning needs all the help he can get.
This probably won’t surprise anyone, but Carolina was a
top 5 run defense this season, allowing just 88.4 rushing yards
against per game and forcing 9 fumbles. Their two games in the
2016 playoffs have been dominant defensively, with multiple defensive
scores and forcing teams to play catch up very early. In a game
where both defenses are elite in all facets of the game, it is
difficult to predict whether a breakthrough will occur via the
run or the pass. The answer very well may be neither. It’s
been a long time since we saw a Super Bowl other than Patriots-Giants
that was truly dominated by defense. You have to go all the way
back to Tom Brady’s first Super Bowl win against the Rams
in 2002 (I don’t count the Steelers-Seahawks Super Bowl
because that game was dominated by being the worst officiated
Super Bowl in NFL history). The Panthers haven’t scored
under 20 points in a win all season. The Broncos did so 4 times.
If this game isn’t the next defense-oriented title game,
then Denver is in a world of trouble.
Passing
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Passing
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