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Bye Weeks: Dallas, Detroit, Oakland, Tampa Bay
Grab a Helmet
Ryan
Mathews @ NO: Apparently, there’s a special place reserved
in NFL doghouses for running backs who put the football on the
carpet. New York’s promising rook, David Wilson, essentially disappeared
after his opening night fumble against the Cowboys, relegated
to Tom Coughlin’s poop list ever since. Mathews, similarly, was
benched against KC last Sunday, the consequence of a critical
red-zone turnover against Atlanta in Week 3 and a growing frustration
on the part of management with his ball security issues. Concerning,
right? Well, yes and no. Mathews clearly has butterfingers (11
fumbles in two-plus seasons) so if he does continue to cough it
up, he’ll absolutely end up buried on the bench. However, Norv
Turner still believes in him and I suspect this was more of
a wake-up call than a permanent relegation. He did after all,
register more yards than replacement Jackie Battle on one less
carry against the Chiefs. While it was during mop-up duty and
long after Battle had capitalized on the prime red-zone looks,
Mathews is clearly the more dynamic of the two backs. Even if
he doesn’t regain his job completely this week, there could be
more than enough touches to go around for him and Battle against
a Saints defense yielding a league-worst 186.8 rushing yards/game.
Set your fears aside and get him in there.
Expect 20+ touches from Trent Richardson
against the Giants.
Trent
Richardson @ NYG: On paper, Cleveland’s struggling and inexperienced
offense versus the Ravens’ nasty and experienced defense looked
like the mismatch of Week 4. In reality, the Browns held their own
most of the night and even had an opportunity to tie things up on
the game’s final play. Guess that’s why they don’t play games on
paper (and why you should really think twice about backing double-digit
favorites in the NFL). Cleveland’s underrated defense was a big
part of the equation but so was this future superstar, their franchise
running back. Richardson only tallied 47 yards on 14 carries (his
third sub-50 yard effort of the season) but he found paydirt for
the third consecutive week and also hauled in four passes for a
solid 57 yards. It’s pretty clear the Browns are only going as far
as he’s able to take them this season. Though that won’t be very
far, three solid matchups await in the next month, starting this
week against the Giants.
Reggie
Bush @ CIN: Save for an explosive Week 2 performance against
the Raiders (almost 200 total yards and two scores), Bush has posted
relatively pedestrian numbers to start the 2012 season, averaging
just 65+ rushing yards in his three other outings. Worse, he hasn’t
scored a single touchdown other than the two he scored against Oakland
and has been mostly an afterthought in Joe Philbin’s West Coast
passing attack. To be fair, he missed half of the Week 3 game against
the Jets and was clearly not 100% last week against Arizona. Nevertheless,
it’s starting to feel like the change in schemes and a change under
center may have adversely affected his overall fantasy value in
the early going. We’ll find out if he can turn things around when
Miami faces a soft Bengals front seven giving up a league-worst
5.4 yards/carry. Make sure Bush is in your lineup as he’s one of
the stronger matchup plays of Week 5.
Grab a Gatorade
BenJarvus
Green-Ellis v. MIA: Bush’s Dolphin teammates, contrarily, are
easily the stingiest run-stopping unit in the league allowing a
mere 56.8 yards a game and a paltry 2.4 yards per rush. Accordingly,
the Law Firm is probably the worst matchup play of Week 5. In fact,
until further notice, I can’t recommend ANY running back who opposes
the Fish, except maybe someone like Marshawn Lynch (Week 12) or
Maurice Jones-Drew (Week 15). They’re that good. Incidentally, Green-Ellis
was brought in to replace the productive, but supposedly limited,
Cedric Benson. Through four games, he’s averaging 71.5 rushing yards/game
and is on pace to score eight times. In 2011, Benson averaged 71.1
rushing yards/game and scored six time. Apparently, Bengal running
backs are fungible.
Chris
Johnson @ MIN: I, like many other pundits, recommended you sit
Johnson down last week, reasoning the end could be near for the
back formerly known as CJ2K. Naturally, he went out and posted his
best numbers of the season against a very stout Texans run defense.
Or did he? The Titans were essentially out of the game midway through
the third quarter and Johnson racked up more than half of his season-high
141 yards during the final quarter and a half of that blowout loss
(otherwise known as garbage time). While the Texans seemed content
to sit back in nickel and dime once they’d mounted the sizeable
lead, Tennessee seemed equally content to keep giving Johnson the
ball, perhaps hoping to salvage some of his misplaced confidence.
Whatever the reason, I’m not buying that we’ll see it two weeks
running. Minnesota is even better against the run and probably won’t
be nursing a three-TD lead this coming Sunday. If you can get some
value for Johnson between now and then, I urge you to pull the trigger.
Brandon
Bolden v. DEN: Oh, that tricky Belichick! Bolden came out of
literally nowhere last week to lead the Pats in rushing with 137
yards on 16 carries, a stellar 8.6-yard average. He also tallied
a score in the 52-28 pasting of the Bills, the second of his brief
career. Where some see breakout candidate and obvious waiver wire
pickup, however, I see potential headache. First, starter Stevan
Ridley didn’t exactly take a backseat to the unknown Bolden against
Buffalo, rushing 22 times for 106 yards and two scores of his own.
Second, it’s not like New England hasn’t utilized multiple backs
before. Just the week prior against Baltimore, Danny Woodhead racked
up 15 carries to Ridley’s 16. Clearly, it’s Belichick’s intention
to utilize a committee of backs and deploy them as the matchups
dictate. The pie of available carries was large in Week 4 but I
suspect it will be significantly smaller against a much better Denver
run defense in Week 5. Smaller pie = smaller pieces. Use Bolden
at your own risk.
Wide Receivers 
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