Despite scoring 45 points in their Wild Card win over the Browns,
Stroud completed just 16 passes. Only one of those went to Schultz,
though it was a 37-yard touchdown, which is called maximizing
your opportunities. Over the previous four games, the tight end
had caught 19 of 27 targeted balls, and he’s basically operating
as the No. 2 option in the passing game behind Collins. Granted,
he was quiet when these two teams met way back in Week 1 with
two catches for four yards, but so much has changed since then
with Stroud developing into one of the NFL’s top young passers.
If Baltimore clamps down on the running game, Schultz could see
a lot of work on Saturday.
When these two teams locked up in the opener, Singletary was
filling a complementary role. Now, he’s the lead back. The
former Bill ran 13 times for 66 yards and a score against the
Browns, which brought the NFL’s No. 1 defense into the matchup.
He’s topped 60 yards in all but one of his last six games
and is sure to get a healthy number of touches unless the Ravens
put Houston in a deep hole early. Baltimore’s ability to
slow down the run is enough to give some pause to plugging Singletary
into lineups this weekend, but he offers adequate upside.
Thirteen touches for 47 yards were what Pierce posted against
Baltimore in Week 1. In his last five games combined, he has 47
yards on 22 touches. Odds are you weren’t thinking about
playing him anyway, but this is just a friendly reminder of how
much his role has diminished over the second half of the season.
Stay far away.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
While many of Baltimore’s top guys sat out Week 18, Likely was
active, catching two passes for 31 yards and scoring the team’s
lone touchdown. The second-year pro has turned it on since Mark
Andrews (ankle) was injured, scoring five times in the last five
games. For all the good things Houston did in their playoff opener,
the tight end combo of David Njoku and Harrison Bryant went off
for 11 receptions and 158 yards. The one caveat here is that Andrews
is back at practice and has a shot to suit up on Saturday, which
could undercut Likely’s value to a degree. Still, the young tight
end has played so well down the stretch he’s worth rolling with
in the Divisional Round.
It was surprising to see Edwards log 10 touches in a meaningless
Week 18 loss to the Steelers, but perhaps it speaks to Baltimore
not viewing him as a core guy. Odds are he’ll get more carries
than Justice Hill or newly signed Dalvin Cook, but it might still
be a modest number. His red-zone exploits (13 rushing TDs) kept
him relevant throughout the season, and he should get those opportunities
again. Still, it creates a relatively narrow path to value. It’s
also worth noting that Edwards fumbled in each of the last two
games, losing both. That at least raises the possibility that
the team could be leery of relying on him entering the postseason.
Outside of a five-game burst in November and early December,
Beckham’s first year with the Ravens was disappointing from
a statistical perspective. He didn’t emerge as the No. 1
wideout -- that would be Flowers -- and didn’t have a meaningful
bump after Andrews was injured, either, finishing well behind
Likely over the same stretch. He does have big-game experience,
having won a Super Bowl with the Rams two seasons ago, but with
just four receptions over his final three games of 2023, Beckham
is, at best, a lottery-ticket play.
After another sharp performance in a stunning victory on the
road in Dallas last week, Jordan Love now has five consecutive
games with multiple passing touchdowns, has not thrown an interception
that span, and has put up at least 19.5 points in each of those
games. Love is really coming into his own alongside a wide receiver
corps that is gaining experience.
But Love does walk into different circumstances this week, drawing
a very well-rested 49ers defense on grass. The 49ers gave up just
15.1 points per game to opposing QB’s this season, and part
of the reason for that was the pressure the front seven gets (48
sacks). San Francisco’s ability to force turnovers in negative
game script (22 interceptions) has also been a big factor.
As great as the Love and the Packers story has been, it’s going
to be hard for them to keep up with the 49ers, and Love may be
under pressure all day. It’s possible that he’s able to make enough
big plays – especially if the Packers offense ends up trailing
and in garbage time – to put out a solid fantasy day, but there’s
also significant risk that Love and the Packers hit a wall in
San Francisco. There are a number of superior, arguably safer
options at quarterback this week (Brock Purdy for example), so
the price should be fairly low to consider Love this weekend.
It was a quiet season for Packers running back Aaron Jones, averaging
just 11.1 fantasy points per game, largely due to injuries and
having collected just 3 total touchdowns. Jones finished just
26th in fantasy points per game at his position, but began showing
signs of heating up late in the year, rushing for over a hundred
yards in each of the Packers final three regular season games.
Then the Packers went to Dallas, and Jones matched his season
touchdown total in just one game. It was also his 4th straight
100-yard rushing performance. Right now, Aaron Jones may be the
hottest running back in the league.
Unfortunately, Jones runs into the 49ers defense, which has not
allowed a 100-yard rusher all season. Who wins out – Jones
and his offensive line or the 49ers front 7 – remains to
be seen, but the Niners being significant favorites does not bode
so well for Jones getting 20 touches for the fifth straight game.
The stellar 49er defense has been average when it comes to holding
down opposing wide receivers (14th most fantasy points allowed).
In a game where the Packers may be throwing a lot, there are certainly
opportunities here for any of Jayden Reed, Christian Watson and
Romeo Doubs to have a very productive day.
Reed - the Packer's rookie version of Deebo Samuel – led the
Green Bay receives in yards from scrimmage (912) and total touchdowns
(10) this year. Yet against Dallas he had no touches for first
time all year. Watson also had a very quiet day last week, getting
targeted only once and turning out just a nine-yard reception.
Watson had scored at least one touchdown in each of the previous
three weeks he played, and has shown himself to be a significant
end zone threat so far in his career (12 touchdowns in 23 games
played). Meanwhile, Doubs is coming off huge 6 reception, 151-yard,
1 TD performance, but he had just 1 target and no receptions only
one week before.
The Packers wide receivers are developing, but the team is deeper
at the position than they've been in recent years, and while any
of Reed, Watson or Doubs could have a big day, they could also
just as easily have a very quiet one. It’s wise to look
at the Packers top 3 wideouts as boom or bust flex options, with
Reed (due to his versatility) being the safest of the group. Watson
was coming off an injury last week and only played 41% of snaps,
but arguably has the highest ceiling of the trio.
Doubs is coming off a massive performance, but it’s the
only 100-yard game of his career. Doubs is probably the odd man
out for those fantasy managers combing the Packers roster for
viable receiving options this week.
2nd round selection Luke Musgrave has showed promise as a rookie
tight end, with 352 receiving yards in 11 games and a 3-51-1 line
against the Cowboys in the Wild Card round. Yet he only finished
29th at his position in fantasy points per game this year. He’ll
also face a 49ers defense that allowed just 9.4 yards per reception
and 3 touchdowns to tight ends this year. Facing the likes of
Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, this has the ear markings of a low
ceiling, low floor game for Musgrave, and there are better low
big options on the DFS market this week.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Outside of the Ravens, no team has been able to solve the 49ers
offense when all the parts are together. It’s unlikely that the
Packers will change that story this week, and that is good news
for Brock Purdy. While Green Bay has a strong secondary (assuming
Jaire Alexander plays), the defensive unit on the whole is not
as stellar. This is likely to be another game where SF limits
Purdy’s throws, but with the 49ers once again leading in YAC yardage
and controlling field position, it’s not likely to matter. Purdy
is one of the very best options to turn to this week at QB and
is surely worth the investment.
Meanwhile, Deebo Samuel faces one of the better secondary units.
More broadly, the Packers defense has been somewhat tough on receivers
(11th fewest fantasy points to the position), but star corner
back Jaire Alexander is the key. He’s carrying an injury designation
at the moment, but if he suits up, he will likely be per-occupied
with Brandon Aiyuk for much of this game. This is especially due
to Samuel’s unique ability to move all over the formation, including
into the backfield (37 rushes 225 yards 5 rushing touchdowns).
Alexander’s preoccupation with Aiyuk and Samuel’s
versatility should make the latter wideout the better fantasy
option this weekend. Look at him as a low-end WR1 against the
Packers.
Aiyuk racked up 1324 receiving yards this season - a career high
- and had a whopping seven 100+ yard receiving performances. His
talent and productivity are not the least bit in doubt, but the
big question is how much will he see of Jaire Alexander?
If Alexander suits up, the answer to that question should be
“quite a bit”, and it was Alexander who stifled CeeDee
Lamb until garbage time in the Packers stunning wipeout of the
Cowboys on Wild Card weekend. That performance by Alexander included
an interception, and it’s likely that Brock Purdy and the
49ers will feel no need to take risks towards the Packers top
corner with so many other options to throw to.
All told, this makes starting Aiyuk a less decisive proposition
than normal, and while he finished 14th in fantasy points per
game at the position, he’s probably a risky flex this week.
Baker Mayfield is easily having the best stretch of his career.
In his last six games, he has 13 TDs and only two INTs, finishing
three of those games with more than 300 yards. He’s led
the Bucs to a 6-2 record in the team’s last eight games,
but only two of those games coming against playoff teams: Green
Bay and the dysfunctional Philadelphia Eagles. But 6-2 in the
NFL is 6-2, and we need to acknowledge that. The one weakness
the Lions have is in the secondary. They give up the sixth most
passing yards and surrender big plays seemingly every week. So,
if Tampa is going to move the ball, it’ll be through the
air.
Evans, of course, will lead in the passing game, complemented
by the always reliable Chris Godwin. With Evans immersed in his
longest scoreless streak of the season (three games), Godwin has
picked up the slack by scoring in two of the last three contests.
The Bucs should find success in the passing game this week, including
a big play or two.
Meanwhile, Rachaad White will find yardage tough to come by going
against the second-best team in stopping the run, but we should
expect him to be a major factor in the passing game. It won’t
surprise me if Mayfield has more than 40 attempts in this game,
with White getting his fair share.
On the Fence: N/A
Fade: N/A
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Both teams struggle to stop the pass, so this should be an entertaining,
high scoring affair. Tampa is the fourth worst at defending the
pass while Detroit is the league’s second best passing offense.
Goff is as efficient a QB that there is in the league, but his
turnovers come in bunches. Of his 12 interceptions, seven came
in only three games. If he can continue protecting the football,
the Lions will be in a position to advance.
Tampa is stingy against the run, ranked fifth in the league in
that category. So, like the Bucs, Detroit may find its best shot
at moving the ball through the air, which favors Jahmyr Gibbs
coming more than David Montgomery. Gibbs is every bit the dynamic
playmaker the Lions hoped he’d be when they traded up in the draft
to select him. He should continue paying dividends in this playoff
showdown.
Sam LaPorta returned last week after it looked like his injury
would keep him out for an extended period. While he didn’t
seem to be his best, he scored a crucial TD on a fourth down play
by the goal line. That’s the kind of potential LaPorta has,
even at less than 100 percent. He’s now one more week removed
from the knee issue and should be a bigger force in the game.
As mentioned above, Tampa poses a significant obstacle when trying
to run the ball on them. Over the last five games, they have held
opponents to 91 yards rushing on average and given up just 1 TD
to running backs. Montgomery is the thumper is Detroit running
attack, and he seems poised to bear the brunt of Tampa’s stellar
run defense.
Josh Allen carried his fantasy football heroics from the regular
season into the playoffs this past week as he threw three touchdowns
while also adding 74 yards and a spectacular (albeit controversial)
rushing score against the Steelers. While Pittsburgh has long
been known for its defensive excellence, the truth is that the
Bills face a much tougher matchup in the Divisional Round as they
will be facing a Chiefs defense that is ranked in the top 10 most
difficult matchups for both quarterbacks and running backs. This
makes Allen a riskier option this week, especially given the potential
for some adverse weather. Still, he’s just been too dominant
to consider benching even in these more difficult matchups.
Allen only threw for 233 yards and a touchdown with an interception
when these teams played back in Week 14. However, what allowed
him to deliver for fantasy purposes - as it has throughout most
of the season - is that he also rushed for 32 yards and a touchdown
in that contest. Allen is a must-start in any matchup. Don’t
get overly cute now and start playing the matchups instead of
this stud QB.
James Cook has been a frustrating player to project for fantasy
purposes in large part because he has not proven to be the team’s
primary goal line back, as quarterback Josh Allen has been so
successful in that role. This has meant that Cook only managed
to score two rushing touchdowns, while adding four as a receiver,
despite touching the ball 282 times during the regular season.
This continued in the Wild Card round as Cook rushed for 79 yards
on 18 carries while adding four receptions in the passing game,
but he failed to get into the end zone which left his final fantasy
stat line lacking.
Cook ran the ball just 10 times against the Chiefs when these
teams played back in December - a game that the Bills narrowly
won by a field goal - but he contributed five receptions for 83
yards in the passing game. That tied the Chiefs’ Travis
Kelce for the most in that game among both teams. Unfortunately,
Cook has seen a dip in his passing game production since that
contest, as he has compiled just 59 receiving yards over his past
five games since that matchup with the Chiefs. His overall usage
remains strong, but Cook’s lack of touchdown upside and
his ever-fluctuating passing game usage make him a risky option
this week.
Stefon Diggs’ second-half-of-the-season struggles continued
into the playoffs as the former Pro Bowler caught seven of his
nine targets for just 52 yards and no touchdown. Diggs hasn’t
reached 100 yards in a game in over three months and he’s
scored just three touchdowns over his past 12 games, including
the playoff matchup with the Steelers a week ago. His overall
usage has remained fairly strong, but it’s also worth noting
that he’s averaging fewer than eight targets per game over
his past 10 games, whereas he had been averaging over 11 targets
per game through the Bills’ first six contests.
Certainly, Diggs can still be a fantasy contributor but the potential
weather and his recent lack of explosive games make him more of
a “safe” option rather than one who can really put
your team over the edge.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
While no player can truly “replace” Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs seem
to have finally found their new WR1 in rookie Rashee Rice. Rice
has been excellent down the stretch this season, having reached
14 or more fantasy points in seven of his past eight games, including
the Chiefs’ Wild Card victory over the Dolphins. Rice led the
team in targets (12), receptions (eight), yards (130), and scored
the team’s only receiving touchdown in the win. No other Kansas
City wide receiver saw more than three targets in the game.
Rice now faces a Buffalo defense that has been great against
opposing receivers this season, but one that he found some success
against when these teams played in Week 14. Rice was targeted
10 times in that contest, catching seven of those passes for 72
yards and a touchdown. He’s a safe bet to see a 25 percent
target share and that’s always something we want to take
advantage of, especially when those passes are coming from Patrick
Mahomes.
It seems almost insane to think that Patrick Mahomes could find
himself as anything other than a “No Brainer,” or
at least a “Favorite” in this article, but if you
remove the name and just look at the recent production, there
hasn’t been a ton to be excited about from this All-World
quarterback down the stretch. Mahomes hasn’t really had
any truly terrible performances this season, but he’s been
held under 300 yards in nine of his past 10 games and he’s
thrown just 13 touchdown passes over that stretch. Worse yet,
he didn’t rush for a single touchdown all season long and
he’s only exceeded 40 rushing yards in three contests this
season. His limited rushing upside and the Chiefs’ overall
struggles in the passing game have led Mahomes to be more of a
low-end QB1 than the high-end QB1 we’ve become accustomed
to.
He’s a reliable option who is very unlikely to truly tank
your team - and he always has the upside to go nuclear - but Mahomes
is not delivering at the rate of some of the other top quarterbacks
who are still playing this weekend.
The Chiefs got out to an early lead and ended up leaning heavily
on their running game in what was a bad weather game against the
Dolphins this past week. This meant that Isiah Pacheco carried
the ball an impressive 24 times - a season-high for the second-year
running back. Even with that impressive workload that resulted
in a rushing touchdown, though, Pacheco finished with just 15.8
fantasy points. Of course, that’s a fine number, but we
also have to consider that if he had failed to score a touchdown
then we’d be looking at a mediocre fantasy day. Pacheco
has been able to make that happen quite often this season, but
the Bills have also been fairly stingy against opposing running
backs during the second half of the season. In fact, no running
back has reached 100 rushing yards or scored more than one touchdown
against them in any of their past 12 games.
Pacheco is the kind of player who could contribute another 12-to-16-point
fantasy day if he’s able to get into the end zone, but he’s
also a risk of completely dudding if the Chiefs fall behind on
the scoreboard. This makes him a riskier-than-usual option as
the Bills remain one of the league’s best offenses, capable
of running away with a game if the Chiefs stumble out of the gate.
