Byes: Carolina, New England, New York Giants, San Francisco

Truths

“Irrationally held truths may be more harmful than reasoned errors.” - Thomas H. Huxley

1) Saquon Barkley has been a “disaster.”

True, although disaster may be a slight exaggeration. In 2024, Barkley likely helped many to a championship after averaging 22 FPts/G. In his 2,005-yard rushing season, he produced seven 25-point-or-more games while this season he's managed just one. He's cracked 15 fantasy points just once in the last seven games. But because of his ability, and history, you can't even think of sitting him.

2) Speaking of slumping stars...

If you started Saquon (5.6), Travis Etienne (5.1), Amon-Ra St. Brown (0.0), Justin Jefferson (2.4) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (4.3) last weekend, your combined total was outscored by the Seattle defense/special team.

Fact. The Seahawks have quietly put together a great defense which ranks first among D/ST. They are one of four teams with at least 40 sacks, second in interceptions, second in defensive/return TDs, second in rushing ypg allowed and third in points allowed.

3) Rashee Rice was worth the wait.

The length of his suspension might have been a few games longer than expected (six games versus what most expected would be a four-gamer), but since his return in Week 7, he's produced like a superstar. He's averaging 21.4 FPts/G, second-best behind only JSN and in the six games played has only been under 18 points one time. He's taken a muddled Kansas City receiver corps, where any of four guys led the team for a week (Xavier Worthy, Marquise Brown, Tyquan Thornton and JuJu Smith-Schuster) for the first month and a half and brought order to the room. He's led the Chiefs wide receivers in all six games he's played.

4) The Seattle running back room has become too equal between Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet.

At the beginning of the season, Walker was thought to be head and shoulders above Charbonnet, but over the past five weeks there is barely a difference between the two backs. Walker is 65-303-1 and averaging 11.9 FPts/G while Charbonnet is 53-232-3 and producing 9.5 FPts/G. Most disturbing for those who drafted Walker early, for the season, Charbonnet has 19 rushing attempts from inside the 10-yard line versus just 10 for Walker.

5) The Rams are thinking about a long playoff run and its hurting Kyren Williams fantasy value.

I believe this to be true. This past month, it appears the Rams have been limiting Williams' workload as he's not seen more than 16 touches in any of the last four games. He averaged 19 touches over the first eight contests. Blake Corum has been the beneficiary of this strategy and has seen an average of 8.8 touches over that span. While this may help Los Angeles in their playoffs, it hurts fantasy owners in ours.

Lies

“A liar begins with making falsehood appear like truth, and ends with making truth itself appear like a falsehood.” – Williams Shenstone (1714-1763)

1) There is no way you are actually thinking of benching Lamar Jackson or Justin Jefferson… right?

Yes, I am certainly considering it. Jefferson is still a great receiver, but he's scored a combined 30 fantasy points (7.7, 11.1, 8.8 and 2.4) the past month. If J.J. McCarthy doesn't return from concussion protocol, can you really start Jefferson based on the play of rookie QB Max Brosmer, who's first career start brought back memories of 2017 Nathan Peterman's first start (go look that one up for a laugh). Unlike Jefferson, Lamar controls his own fate, so despite his disappointing last month (16.4, 10.7, 8.8, 15.0), I can still say he's still start-worthy versus a Steelers' defense ranked in the bottom five in QB fantasy points allowed.

2) The return of Isiah Pacheco will hurt Kareem Hunt's fantasy value.

False. In Pacheco's return from injury he saw just five touches while Hunt managed 15 touches. What hurt Hunt the most was he didn't get into the end zone which he had done the previous four consecutive games. Hunt is limited by a minor role in the passing game, but should continue to get the majority of the rushing opportunities and be the running back to have in the Chiefs backfield.

3) Josh Allen must be started every week.

You would think that to be a true statement if you didn't look at his home/road splits. Allen appears to love the home cooking. At Highmark Stadium he is averaging a gigantic 34.1 FPts/G and his team is 5-1. On the road, he is producing a pedestrian 20.1 FPts/G, has cracked 25 fantasy points just once, and his team is 3-3. Allen should be his dominant self in Week 14 at home against Cincinnati, but beware of the first two weeks of the fantasy playoffs as he's at New England and at Cleveland. His road numbers are replaceable if you have a decent backup with a favorable matchup.

4) Adonai Mitchell will always be known as the guy who dropped the football before crossing the goal line.

The Magic 8-ball says "No." Mitchell didn't get much of an opportunity in Indianapolis where he was behind Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, Josh Downs and tight end Tyler Warren. In New York, he's getting the targets necessary to become fantasy-worthy. Over the past three games he's seen 25 targets and in Week 13 posted a 12-target, eight-catch, 102-yards and a score for 24.2 fantasy points. He should be a solid option in the fantasy playoffs as the Jets first or second receiving option.

5) It was, in fact, not a mess in the Tampa Bay backfield as I has surmised last week.

The backfield belonged completely to returning Bucky Irving, with Rachaad White getting tiny scraps and Sean Tucker the odd man out. Irving saw 19 touches to five for White and two for Tucker. Irving looks healthy and quick and scored twice, but one was brought back by penalty. It's an Irving backfield moving forward, unlike in many places like; Seattle, New England, Jacksonville, Chicago and Carolina which seem to have become full-blown shared backfields.