Byes: Cincinnati, Dallas, Kansas City, Tennessee

Truths

“Better a cruel truth than a comfortable delusion.” – Edward Abbey

1) Since Week 5, the Broncos’ Bo Nix is outscoring every quarterback not named Patrick Mahomes.

Fact. He's averaging 26.3 FPts/G with 13 touchdowns (10 passing) against two interceptions and his team is in the middle of a six-game win streak. That puts hit ahead of Matthew Stafford (26.2 FPts/G), Dak Prescott (25.6) and Josh Allen (25.2) as the remainder of the top-five. The second-year quarterback reminds me of Drew Brees more and more every day.

2) Neither Jared Goff nor Baker Mayfield has been a top-15 quarterback since Week 5.

True. Both were top-10 quarterbacks in 2024, but both are producing well below their previous year's level. At least Mayfield has the excuse that his receiving corps has been decimated by injury... again (Mike Evans has played four games, Chris Godwin two games). Goff's receivers have all been healthy, his completion percentage is up from 72.4% to 73.8% and he owns a stellar 17-3 TD-INT ratio. The culprit is he was throwing for 272 yards-per-game in 2024 and just 239 this season. Digging further, Goff's "Air Yards" per attempt is slightly down and the team's YAC after a completion is down 13%. Translation - he's throwing slightly shorter passes and the receivers aren't breaking many long runs after they catch the ball. Throwing more to Jameson Williams might help in this area (targets down from 6.1 in 2024 to 4.5 in 2025).

3) As good as James Cook is, he will never be a top-five fantasy running back.

The "Magic 8-ball" says this is likely true. Cook is second in rushing yards this season (867), but his lack of usage in the passing game is the issue. Since Week 5 (4 games), he has one catch for 11 yards. For the season he has 13 receptions. Even Jonathan Taylor, not known for pass catching, has twice as many and of course Christian McCaffrey leads all running backs with 61 receptions. The Bills and Josh Allen simply don't throw to their backs (29 targets and 20 receptions through eight games). This is an "institutional" issue, not a Cook issue.

4) Ashton Jeanty has rebounded from his bad start and become a reliable fantasy back.

He has cracked the 15-point mark in four of the last five games including a 35.5-point outburst against the Chicago Bears in Week 4. Before you go trading for him, Jeanty has a tough upcoming schedule with two games against the Broncos (fifth vs opposing RBs) and a game with Cleveland (2nd) in the next four contests. On the other hand, if you know you are making the playoffs, Jeanty faces the Eagles in Week 15 (ranked 24th) and the New York Giants in what would be the championship round (ranked 31st) "Audentis fortuna iuvat" which translates to "fortune favors the bold."

5) Nico Collins ranks 26th in wide receiver fantasy points per game (13.3) and should be a "buy-low" candidate.

His production is well below what he's done the past two seasons and his fantasy managers might be frustrated. I'd be ready to jump in on Collins who has seen 10 and 11 targets his past two games even though the results have not been there (10.6 FPts/G). Houston's immediate schedule is favorable with three of his next four opponents ranked 21st or worse against opposing wideouts.

Lies

“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.” - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

1) You should not lose your starting spot due to injury… Kyler Murray edition.

False. You should not lose your spot if you were playing well when you were injured. Jacoby Brissett is flat out playing better quarterback than Murray and gives your fantasy team, and the Cardinals, a better chance to win football games. As a starter, Brissett is averaging 26 FPts/G, Murray is averaging 19.1 FPts/G.

2) You should not lose your starting spot due to injury, part two… Chuba Hubbard.

The Panthers realized the fallacy of the statement as well. Hubbard is averaging a career-low 3.6 ypc and after a pair of 200-yard from scrimmage days from Rico Dowdle, the South Carolina product has remained the feature back even after Hubbard returned to the lineup. Since Week 5, Dowdle is averaging 22.1 FPts/G, 153 yards from scrimmage and more importantly for head coach Dave Canales, Carolina is 4-1.

3) J.J. McCarthy is ready to be a fantasy-worthy option.

Sorry, not yet. In his three starts, he's produced two decent games (23.7 versus Chicago and 22.4 last week against Detroit), but both were by virtue of a rushing touchdown which isn't reliable week-to-week unless your name is Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts. Head coach Kevin O'Connell has kept a tight rein on his young quarterback and has yet to allow him to throw more than 25 passes in a game. By comparison, in veteran Carson Wentz's five starts, he averaged 33.8 passing attempts per game. However, if you stash McCarthy on your bench, come playoff time his Week 15 opponent is the worst in the league, Dallas, yielding 28.5 FPts/G, and in Week 16 he would face the Giants, ranked 26th and allowing 23.4 FPts/G.

4) Courtland Sutton is the only reliable Denver receiver to roster.

I'm starting to believe in a second Broncos wideout - Troy Franklin. Nix's old Oregon teammate has become a viable option the past three weeks, getting frequent opportunities (28 targets) and turning those chances into points - 44.1 or 14.7 FPts/G. Over the same span, Sutton saw just 22 targets and produced 35.4 points. Franklin is rostered in only 48% of all leagues.

5) The trade of Jakobi Meyers (33-352-0) to Jacksonville immediately makes him fantasy-worthy.

Not so fast my friend. Despite injuries to disappointing Brian Thomas Jr. (ankle) and Travis Hunter (IR), the immediate benefit should go to third-year receiver Parker Washington. Meyers will need to learn the offense and in the meantime, Washington has produced double-digit points the past two games while seeing plenty of targets (19). By the time Meyers is completely integrated into the new offense, Hunter could be back and Thomas will definitely be playing leaving Meyers as a third wheel at best (fourth if Washington breaks out). Choose Washington, who has a WR2 ceiling and WR3 floor for the next month, instead of Meyers, for short-term value. Washington is rostered in 18% of all leagues.