I'm expecting at least 30 fantasy points from Robinson
in Week 16. All the stars are aligning. The Cardinals rank 29th
on the season allowing 26.4 FPts/G to opposing backs, but since
Week 11, that number has been a spectacularly bad 33.1 FPts/G.
Not only have they allowed seven rushing touchdowns to RBs over
that span, but they have also allowed two receiving touchdowns
to backs, something Bijan does as well as anyone in the league.
Since his return from injury, Irving has taken back the Bucs
backfield from Rachaad White and Sean Tucker. He's seen at least
15 rushing attempts and 18 touches for each of the past three
games versus a three-game total of 19 touches for White and 13
for Tucker. Given how badly the Tampa defense is playing, I expect
the Bucs' game plan will be to keep the ball away from Bryce Young
and that means featuring the run. Since Week 8, the Panthers are
allowing 149.2 rushing yards per game and 29.8 FPts/G to opposing
backs.
If you wished to run the ball against any team in the league,
it would probably be the Giants. They have allowed the second
most rushing yards in the league (153.6) and the third most rushing
touchdowns (18). Opposing backfields are averaging 30.1 FPts/G
since Week 11. As Jones has gotten healthier (shoulder) he's seeing
more work than Jordan Mason. The past two games, Jones has 29
touches to Mason's 21 chances. Both could be viable, but Jones'
catching ability gets him the nod.
Both Denver and Jacksonville's defenses are ranked top-four
versus opposing running backs, but since Week 11, the Jaguars
have been the most stingy of them all (15.8 FPts/G). That includes
less than 21 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns to
backs. In a battle to two great defenses, I don't like anyone
in this game.
Carter was the "lead" back in Week 15, but didn't
do much with it. The reason is that the Cardinals are now a pass-first
team. Brissett is averaging 45.7 passing attempts per game over
his last six starts. That doesn't leave much space for the
running game to thrive. Meanwhile, the Falcons are No.2 against
the run since Week 11. Stingy defense, few opportunities usually
equals poor fantasy production.
Etienne caught three balls for 73 yards and three scores last
week to accumulate almost all of his fantasy points. But the Denver
defense doesn’t allow backs to do that to them. Over the
past four games they have allowed just 46 yards and one score
to receiving backs. So, Etienne will have to do it the old fashioned
way… running the ball. Unfortunately, he’s been mostly
ineffective on the ground, averaging just 3.1 ypc the last three
games. This matchup doesn’t bode well for Etienne.
