McConkey and the entire Chargers passing game has been in a slump
for about a month. But the Dallas pass defense is the medicine
for what ails any passing game. They are allowing 39.7 FPts/G
and rank 32nd in a 32-team league. They have allowed a league-worst
24 touchdown passes to wide receivers. This game could be a shootout
with an O/U total around 50. McConkey, out of the slot, should
have a field day.
The Lions score a lot of points, in fact, rank first at 30.6
FPts/G. But they also give up a lot, particularly lately with
much of their secondary hobbling or out. They are allowing 44.7
FPts/G to opposing wideouts the past five games. Metcalf showed
what he can do last Monday night and he'll do it again on
Sunday. He'll see a lot more than the three targets he saw
Monday in an easy Steelers victory. Here, he'll likely see
double-digit targets and produce 100+ yards.
Over the past five weeks, the Falcons own the worst pass defense
versus opposing wideouts, allowing 46.1 FPts/G. Since Week 11,
Wilson has averaged 23.1 FPts/G on 13 targets. He and tight end
Trey McBride (league-leading 105 receptions) should both be elite
with Brissett throwing on almost every down.
Lucky Brian Thomas Jr. figures to be staring at Patrick Surtain
II all day long. That's enough for me to sit him by itself.
But the Broncos pass rush is also elite, leading the league with
58 sacks. The best you can hope for is a few short completions
before Trevor Lawrence is hurried, hit or sacked. BTJ did well
against a worn down Jets defense, but I'm not even expecting
a repeat of last week's 17.1 fantasy points. The Denver
secondary has only allowed one 15-point fantasy total from a wideout
since Week 8.
Yes, Nacua could be the best receiver in football. Yes, he'll
be a target hog with Davante Adams likely sidelined. But don't
go expecting 30 fantasy points here. The 11-3 Seahawks secondary,
led by Devon Witherspoon, are allowing a total of 25.6 FPts/G
to opposing wideouts. They haven't allowed a 20-point scorer since
Week 6. With all the attention aim at Nacua, he's going to work
for every catch and every yard. He may eventually get close to
his average, but I don't think he cracks 18 fantasy points. The
better guy to target here is tight end Colby Parkinson, who quietly
has six touchdowns over his last six games and is averaging 13.5
FPts/G over that span. Also, the weather forecast in Seattle is
heavy rain and high winds. It will be a good day to run the ball.
It’s been pretty much a disaster of a season for Washington
and McLaurin. Last week’s 15.9 fantasy points was the second-best
of the season for “Scary” Terry, who has only managed
to play in seven games. With Jayden Daniels sidelined, the Commanders
offense under Marcus Mariota has been “spotty.” They
broke an eight-game losing streak last week against the equally
inept Giants, but the Eagles are a win from winning the division
and the defense is peaking. The Eagles are ranked eighth in fewest
wideout fantasy points allowed (27.3) and top-five since Week
11 (22.4). They haven’t allowed a receiver even 10 fantasy
points the past three games.
