Tampa's pass defense has been horrible the past five weeks,
the worst in the league and that's saying something considering
how Dallas' secondary has played all season. The Bucs are
allowing 31.1 FPts/G to opposing quarterbacks since Week 11. Meanwhile,
Young has been up and down of late, alternating between good and
bad. In his last four outings he's produced 34.3, 14.0,
24.6 and 17.1 fantasy points. Young is at home where his QB rating
is 98.5 (vs. 83.7 on the road). With the division lead on the
line, Young goes off.
It's been five games since Herbert produced start-worthy
numbers (14.3 FPts/G since a Week 9 32.2-point explosion against
Tennessee), but a date with the Cowboys is just the elixir needed
to turn his game around. Dallas is allowing a league-worst 27.6
FPts/G and 31 touchdown passes on the season and only been slightly
better since the trade deadline. Herbert gets untracked in a more
balanced Chargers offense.
Since becoming the Cardinals starter, Brissett has yet to score
less than 21.9 fantasy points in any game and has compiled a 25.3
FPts/G average over the nine-game span. Extrapolated out for a
season would have him as the No.2 fantasy quarterback behind only
Josh Allen's 27.8 FPts/G. The Atlanta defense has become very
good at stopping the run, but horrible stopping the pass. Since
Week 11 they rank second in fewest RB fantasy points allowed (16.0)
and 28th in QB fantasy points allowed (24.1). Brissett will throw
at least 40 times as he has the past six games and will continue
his amazing fantasy run (despite the Cardinals losing all six
games).
The first reason you can't start Dart is because it's
50-50 he'll land in the blue tent. In 10 games he's
been checked for a concussion five times. He's only played
two games since Week 11 and is averaging 19.8 FPts/G. At the same
time, the Vikings have allowed the fewest QB fantasy points since
Week 11 - just 10.1 FPts/G. They are tied for 11th in sacks
for the season (35), fifth in QB pressures (28.1%) and each one
has a chance to send Dart back to the blue tent.
Yes, the favorite for the MVP is not a good choice in Week 16.
The Seahawks are seventh in QB fantasy points allowed for the
season, but second over the past five games allowing just 13.0
FPts/G. Stafford will almost certainly be without Davante Adams
(hamstring) and the game is expected to be played in a rain storm
with 15-20 mph gusts. That's too much of a handicap even
for this 17-year veteran. I expect the Rams to feature Kyren Williams
and Blake Corum more than the passing game.
In case you haven’t noticed, this Jacksonville defense
has been playing lights out of late. Since Week 11 they rank No.3
against opposing QBs (14.3 FPts/G) and No.1 against opposing RBs
(15.8). Nix was excellent against Green Bay in Week 15 (23-of-34
for 302 yards and four scores), but that was his first game over
22 fantasy points since Week 8. He isn’t likely to get close
to those numbers against this Jaguars tough defense.
