I have compared the preseason draft rankings and the post-season finishes by position (based on total fantasy points earned). The idea of this exercise is to determine the primary reason for large variances in our expectations and a player’s 2025 production and whether it can help our expectations for 2026.

Looking at many of the results, I’ve divided each position category based on four conclusions:

1) WILL REBOUND: Underachieved expectations primarily due to injury, so I’m not holding these results against the player.

2) REDUCE EXPECTATIONS: Underachieved expectations due to poor play or outside factors and lowering future outlook.

3) RETURN TO PREVIOUS LEVELS: Overachieved expectations, usually for a one-time reason, therefore I’m expecting a “return to the mean” in 2026.

Tight Ends

Will Rebound

Brock Bowers - Hampered by an early season knee injury and season-long poor quarterback play, the high expectations for Bowers weren't achievable. Assuming he is healthy and the Raiders make Indiana Hoosiers QB Fernando Mendoza the No.1 overall selection in April, Bowers should easily improve on his 11th-place production. I will expect top-two play from Bowers in 2026.

Sam LaPorta - The Lions tight end was mainly ignored for most of the season as the offense ran through Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. LaPorta landed on the IR in Week 11 and never returned to action on the field. After a monster rookie season (86-889-10), LaPorta has settled in at a lower production level. He hasn’t gotten worse, the talent around him has gotten better so his opportunities are limited. When healthy he’s an 11 FPts/G guy, which in this age of talented tight ends across the board, makes him a low-end TE1. (12 tight ends averaged 11 FPts/G or better in 2025).

Reduce Expectations

Travis Kelce - There were seasons in the not too distant past when Travis Kelce required a first-round pick to get him on your roster. Now, he's just one of many at the position. It's a product of age (36) and the failure of the Kansas City offense to be explosive. Kelce's production has been slipping since 2023, so don't blame Taylor Swift. If he decides to play, he's a low-end TE1... at best.

T.J. Hockenson - The Vikings tight end hasn't been a major part of the Minnesota offense since 2023. Much of it is due to injury - he’s missed nine games over the past two seasons. Last season it was the ineffective quarterback play which ruined the fantasy value of the entire Vikings passing game. A TE1 in preseason 2025, he shouldn’t be more than roster depth on your 2026 fantasy team.

Juwan Johnson - Johnson was the primary option for a young rookie quarterback with few alternatives other than Chris Olave. His 102 targets was a career high, by a lot, and could continue barring a complete rebuild of the Saints offense. Watch free agency and the draft and if New Orleans ignores wide receiver and a pass-catching running back to replace the aging Kamara, then Johnson could return to this level (10.8 FPts/G), but I'm expecting regression after the team gets second-year quarterback Tyler Shough some more weapons.

Dallas Goedert - After averaging 3.4 touchdown catches for seven seasons, Goedert caught 11 in 2025. If he’s still on the Eagles come Opening Day, expect major regression here. He’s a low-end TE1, who thrives when one of his team’s elite receivers is sidelined and he picks up the slack. Do not overdraft him in 2026.

Raise Expectations

Harold Fannin Jr. - Fannin was a solid option for most of the season and turned into a "fantasy winner" by averaging 17 FPts/G from Week 14-17. The Browns lack of quality wide receiving talent was the opening he needed to become the No.6 fantasy tight end in total points and No.8 in FPts/G at 11.8 points. Watch the off-season work by Browns management and if they don't improve their wideouts from Jerry Jeudy, Isaiah Bond and Cedric Tillman, then Fannin can repeat or improve on these numbers.

Tucker Kraft - The Packers tight end was elite... for the eight games he played (14.7 FPts/G). That's George Kittle and Brock Bowers level. Depending on when he returns from his November right ACL tear, he could be useful come 2026 fantasy playoff time.

Colston Loveland - The Bears rookie was a TE12 pre-season and finished TE12, but the way he got there was the key to next season. He started slowly, averaging 3.8 FPts/G through the first half-dozen games, but Caleb Williams soon found out how reliable he was, and from Week 7 until Week 18 he averaged 14.3 FPts/G. That’s top-five stuff, which he continued through the Wildcard and Divisional rounds. He should be a top-five tight end in 2026.