The world is a mess, so why shouldn’t it be the same for fantasy
OK, things might be getting better for football, where we have
almost made it through the bye weeks portion of the schedule with
none this weekend and just two byes remaining next week (Tampa
Bay and Carolina). And we haven’t had a postponement or
a delayed game in many weeks despite numerous positive tests.
Just two questions remain. Have you clinched your playoff spot?
Is your playoff lineup as good as it can get? If either answer
is “no” then you haven’t completed your assignment.
Get to work.
“We hold these truths to be self-evident that all men
are created equal; that they are endowed by their Creator with
certain unalienable rights; that among these are life, liberty,
and the pursuit of happiness.” – Declaration of Independence
1) The silent wide receiver assassin - Keenan Allen.
True. While Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill are media darlings,
Allen just keeps putting up huge numbers after huge numbers. Allen
ranks third behind the other two guys for the 2020 season and
is just 1.7 total points behind Hill for second overall (202.2-200.5).
Incidentally, on Sunday Allen tied the all-time record (with Antonio Brown) for the fastest player to reach 600 career receptions (96
career games). With young Justin Hebert under center, Allenís
numbers arenít likely to fade anytime soon.
2) Speaking of Hebert, he ranks fifth this season among quarterbacks
(28.9 FPts/G) and should get better during the fantasy playoffs.
Fact. Hebert has a favorable schedule for the first rounds of
the playoffs. The Chargers face Atlanta in Week 14 (ranked 32-of-32
yielding 30.4 FPts/G and the Raiders in Week 15 (ranked 25th)
before a game against Denver in Week 16. In addition, heíll
soon get another weapon back in running back Austin Ekeler, who
is one of the best receiving backs in the league.
3) If you lost because Mike Evans was credited with an eight-yard
reception on a second-forward pass you were screwed.
Fact. You canít throw two forward passes on one play, yet
Tom Brady did just that and the official gamebook credits Evans
with an eight-yard catch. It should have been called a fumble
and an Evans fumble recovery. Of course, then Brady would have
received a point for catching his own pass and he was not credited
with a reception. Just a mess.
4) Duke Johnson hasnít done much in relief of David Johnson,
but Week 12 is his time to shine.
Hopefully true. Johnson has disappointed fantasy owners who handcuffed
him with David Johnson as heís managed just 11.9 fantasy
points combined over two games. However, he faces the Detroit
Lions this Thursday, who are the NFLís worst at defending
opposing running backs, yielding 33.8 FPts/G.
5) Avoid the 49ers wideouts for a while.
Fact. San Francisco has a horrible schedule coming up facing
the Rams, Bills and the Football Team over the next three weekends.
All three rank in the top-10 for defending wide receivers with
the Rams and Washington at the top and the Bills ninth. Even the
return of Deebo Samuel (hamstring) and possible return of Brandon Aiyuk (Covid-19) wonít move the needle against this trio
of defenses. In addition, Raheem Mostert (ankle) could return
so expect an emphasis on the running game.
“Those that think it permissible to tell white lies
soon grow color blind.” – Austin O’Malley
1) With J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram testing positive, Gus Edwards
is an obvious waiver claim and Thursday start.
Not so fast. While Edwards will certainly see added touches,
running backs facing the Pittsburgh Steelers donít fare
well. In fact, the Steelers have yielded just 17.4 FPts/G to opposing
RBs and thatís No.2 in the league just 0.1 points behind
league-leading New Orleans (173.8-173.9). And quarterback Lamar Jackson is always a threat to poach short-yardage rushing touchdowns.
Edwards might not even produce double-digits. Also, with nine
or 10 Ravens staff and players testing positive through Tuesday
afternoon, there is a chance this game gets postponed if more
positives show up.
2) Tom Brady doesnít miss Patriots running back James White.
False. White caught 72-of-95 balls last season for 645 yards
and five touchdowns. The four Bucs backs have combined for 65-of-93
for 373 yards and one score this season. White misses TB12 too.
Heís yet to find the end zone in 2020.
3) DK Metcalf over Terry McLaurin is an easy call right?
4) Matt Ryan can still be started even if Julio Jones is out
for a game because he has plenty of other receivers.
Sorry no. Sure, Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage and Hayden Hurst
are nice pass catchers, but there is only one statistic you need
to know. Ryan with Julio in the lineup averages 23.3 FPts/G and
without Julio averages 9.0. Class dismissed. Look elsewhere if
Jonesí hamstring keeps him out of the lineup.
5) Tom Brady is a viable fantasy quarterback.
Heís more of a gamble than a sure thing these days. In
fact, in his last 20 games heís failed to reach the 20-point
mark in 13 games (65%). Heís averaging 20.74 fantasy points
over that 20-game span which is only fantasy-worthy in two-quarterback
leagues. Meanwhile, Carson Wentz is averaging 21.47 over the past
20 games and 22.4 FPts/G in 2020 and fantasy owners have already
benched him (22% start rate). Bradyís start rate is still
69%. Apparently, there is still loyalty to the GOAT even if heís
playing like a lamb.