A few years ago, I decided to use the final Blitz of the season
to give fantasy managers a sounding board for their toughest lineup
decisions entering their league's fantasy championship game. Given
how well the idea was received initially, it only made sense to
extend it to all three fantasy playoff weeks.
Below are five reader questions (submitted via X or the FFT forum)
and my advice. Any special scoring rules will also appear in the
question or immediately thereafter.
Before I begin, I would like to congratulate each of you for
making it this far. This season was easily the most frustrating
and challenging for me in my 25-plus years of doing this, and
I can only imagine many of you feel the same. I also want to thank
each of you for your support this year and the two decades I have
been with this site.
jrokh: Dallas Goedert (@ BUF) or Taysom Hill (@ TEN)?
Need two: Woody Marks (@ LAC), Tony Pollard (vs. NO) and Zach
Charbonnet (@ CAR)?
The short answer: Hill, Marks and Pollard.
My rationale: In one corner, we have a player
in Goedert who began the season with five straight double-digit
fantasy efforts, followed by 8.3 points or less in five of the
next six. He is currently on a three-game run of producing like
a TE1 again, including two outings in which the matchup was not
in his favor. How the offense is functioning at a given time seems
to be much more important to him than the matchup. With that said,
the only two tight ends to pop off against Buffalo this season
are more glorified slot receivers (Mike Gesicki and Harold Fannin Jr.).
Goedert is much more of an in-line tight end, so I would be hard-pressed
to play him this week.
In the other corner, we have Hill - a fantasy analyst's nightmare.
Projecting him requires insider access to the room of Kellen Moore
(and Klint Kubiak, Pete Carmichael and Sean Payton before him)
because his job is to be whatever the Saints need a given week.
Last week, that meant he was lined up in the backfield 16 times.
(Week 12 was the only other time this season he was in the backfield
for more than five snaps.) That led to a team-high 12 carries
(seven more than anyone else). Can we expect a repeat of that
in Week 17? I doubt it. I think it is clear Moore prefers him
to Audric Estime and Evan Hull as a runner, but that means less
this week (against a reasonably stout Tennessee run defense) than
it did versus the Jets. I am leaning Hill over Goedert only because
Hill has the potential to match Goedert as a pass-catcher while
also adding a few yards as a passer or runner. For what it's worth
(and if it was not already obvious), I have very little confidence
in this call.
As far as the call at running back, I suppose Charbonnet's upside
is as high as that of Woods or Marks. The problem with him is
that he is a touchdown-or-bust option. How much, you ask? His
highest PPR output in a game in which he did not score a touchdown
this year is 8.6. On the other hand, he has scored in eight of
the 14 games he played so far this season. He has managed more
than 54 total yards only twice. In other words, we are talking
about a low floor. At least with Marks and Pollard, we can tell
ourselves a story that either one - if not both - could be in
line for 20-plus touches if they are active and things go mostly
to form. The only way Charbonnet is getting there is if Kenneth
Walker goes down.
uwmalcolm: (0.5 PPR) Brock Purdy (vs. CHI) or Trevor Lawrence
(@ IND)?
Pick two running backs, two receivers and a flex from the following:
Omarion Hampton (vs. HOU), Tyrone Tracy (@ LV), Michael Carter
(@ CIN), Ja'Marr Chase (@ ARI), Chris Olave (@ TEN), Mike Evans
(@ MIA) and Courtland Sutton (@ KC)? Hampton, Chase and Olave
are locks.
The short answer: Lawrence, Hampton, Tracy, Chase, Olave and
Evans.
My rationale: I am not sure there is a wrong answer to the quarterback
question, but I think the questionable status of George Kittle
(ankle) lowers Purdy's ceiling just enough that I could not start
him in good conscience over Lawrence, who is the overall QB1 in
fantasy over the last three weeks. Jake Tonges proved he is a
more than capable replacement for Kittle, but we cannot pretend
that he demands the same attention from defensive coordinators.
While the Bears are a better matchup than the Colts from a season-long
perspective, most of the big games they surrendered to quarterbacks
were during the first half of the season. On the other hand, the
Colts will almost certainly be without CBs Sauce Gardner (calf)
and Charvarius Ward (concussion) again. A national audience saw
what a good quarterback can do to a defense missing those key
pieces. While Purdy's five-touchdown effort against Indianapolis
showed the world what was possible against that defense, those
kinds of performances rarely happen two weeks in a row. Furthermore,
Jacksonville is playing well enough on defense that the Jags will
probably lean on the running game for the final 15-20 minutes.
I agree with you on your locks, so let's discuss the other options.
Tracy versus Carter comes down to the likelihood that the former
handles more work than the latter. Arizona has been lukewarm on
Carter for some time now, typically refraining from putting too
much work on his plate even when he is highly efficient with it.
I will not dismiss the possibility of Carter scoring a touchdown
against the friendliest matchup for running backs this season,
but I think it is just as likely that Arizona will use the final
two weeks of the season to see if it has something in Corey Kiner.
The other question that needs to be answered is Evans versus Sutton
(who plays Christmas night). Evans' status as Baker Mayfield's
favorite option has not taken a hit despite how long the former
missed with a shoulder injury. Whatever the game script is in
Miami this week, we can bet either Evans will be catching a touchdown
from a (hopefully) resurgent Mayfield or serve as a frequent target
of Mayfield's as the Bucs go pass-heavy if/when they fall behind.
The same cannot be said about any other Tampa Bay receiver right
now.
tbk420: (Non-PPR) Blake Corum (@ ATL) or Michael Carter (@ CIN)?
The short answer: Corum.
My rationale: Not many people are going to see this question
the same way I see it, but tbk420 is essentially asking if he
should start a 1B back on perhaps the best offense in the league
in a middling matchup versus the perceived bell-cow on a middling
offense in the best matchup a back could ask for in 2025.
I shared some of my thoughts about Carter in the question above.
The non-PPR element of this question makes it a bit easier for
me to answer because we really only have to ask ourselves two
things: 1) which running back is the most likely to gain the most
total yards and 2) which running back is the most likely to score
a touchdown? Carter is probably the answer to the first question
because he is typically involved as a receiver in an offense that
is usually in negative game script. The problem is that last week
still concerns me; he was very efficient with his opportunities
and the Cardinals still made sure to involve all three backs.
Corum has already proven to have significant yardage upside even
without the benefit of receiving yards, as he has amassed at least
61 in four straight. Carter has scored three total touchdowns
in 20 games as a Cardinal, while Corum has five in the last four
games alone. The matchup could easily work to the benefit of Carter
and make everything I said in the last few sentences meaningless,
but I would still argue the upside play is Corum.
@Adam_Gellman: Brock Purdy (vs. CHI) or Joe Burrow (vs. ARI)?
Choose two: Mike Evans (@ MIA), Jauan Jennings (vs. CHI), Courtland
Sutton (@ KC) or Michael Wilson (@ CIN)?
The short answer: Burrow, Evans and Jennings.
My rationale: I discussed Purdy in the previous
question, so I will get straight to why I would start Burrow.
The upside with Burrow is immense; he has thrown for four scores
in two of his last three games. His primary weapons are healthy
and he is set to face a defense that has given up three touchdowns
to each of the last three starting quarterbacks it has faced (and
five of the last six). Arizona has four cornerbacks on the injury
report. Even if each of them is somehow available for Week 17,
the best pair the Cardinals can put out is a pair of rookies (versus
Ja'Marr Chase
and Tee Higgins).
S Budda Baker
(concussion, thumb) appears unlikely to go, further weakening
a defense that has already been one of the worst in football for
at least two months.
Evans was discussed earlier as well and Sutton has already played.
(I answered Adam before Thursday night.) This leaves Jennings
and Wilson. Jennings is actually the player from this group that
I have projected to do the most damage this weekend, primarily
because George Kittle (ankle) appears unlikely to suit up. While
many people love the battlefield promotion of a team's second
option in the passing game moving into the primary spot, it does
not mean the new No. 1 sees alpha usage. Ultimately, Jennings
has a few things working in his favor to make me believe he will
handle those duties well in Week 17. First and foremost, HC Kyle
Shanahan does as good a job getting players open with his scheme
as any play-caller or designer. Perhaps just as importantly, Jennings
has never created much separation and tends to win with physicality.
That is kind of a big deal when you consider defenses are typically
fixated on Christian McCaffrey. Between Shanahan's schemes and
the attention McCaffrey draws away from San Francisco's pass-catchers,
Jennings should have it easier than most players who move from
the second chair to the first chair.
There are a few reasons why I am down on Wilson this week. This
will be Arizona's first and only cold-weather game of the year.
There is also a distinct possibility he draws shadow coverage
from D.J. Turner and not Marvin Harrison Jr. (Why would the Bengals
have their stud corner travel with a receiver who will likely
be on a snap count again and has already acknowledged he is playing
through an injury?) Fantasy managers have been riding the Jacoby Brissett negative game script gravy train for almost half of a
season at this point, but I think we saw in Week 16 why he has
been a journeyman for the last five years. While I will not pretend
that the Bengals are as good defensively as the Falcons, DC Al
Golden will undoubtedly utilize some of the same tricks Atlanta
used to make Brissett a 51.6 percent passer. Let's also not forget
that Arizona already has an easy button in the passing game. His
name is Trey McBride, and he is about to face a defense that is
among the worst in the history of the game at giving up production
to tight ends. I think Wilson is capable of something approaching
five catches for 60-70 yards, but that is only if he avoids Turner.
We won't know that for sure until after the game has started,
so give me Evans and Jennings.
Showboat: (Keeper) Is Devin Neal a worthwhile hold or is it
better to keep Sam LaPorta in the hope that he returns to a more
prominent role in the Lions' offense next season?
The short answer: Keep LaPorta.
My rationale: I am not going to pretend to be jazzed by the thought
of keeping LaPorta when I think that his time as a potential long-term
elite asset may have passed the moment that former OC Ben Johnson
left for Chicago. With that said, it does not mean that he cannot
still be a very good asset at a position fantasy managers often
struggle to fill. Much will depend on if/when Detroit moves on
from OC John Morton (I doubt HC Dan Campbell wants to continue
calling the plays) and who the Lions hire to replace him. Nevertheless,
I think we have already seen the variables that need to fall into
place for LaPorta to be relevant over the last year or two. Either
one or both of Amon-Ra St. Brown or Jameson Williams needs to
miss time, thus opening up a bigger share of the target pie for
him. The other path to production for LaPorta is that the defense
has to be so bad that volume comes as a result of negative game
script.
I can understand why Showboat asks about Neal in this question.
Neal's biggest obstacle is that Alvin Kamara is likely tied to
the team for at least one more season, and that doesn't take into
account Kendre Miller returning to form. Releasing Kamara next
season would result in a dead money charge of over $18 million
(if he is cut before June 1) and save the club only about $360,000
against the cap. Barring injuries to Kamara and Miller again next
year, I don't see much of a path for Neal to be the lead back
in New Orleans until 2027.
Doug Orth has served as an analyst for FF Today since 2006 and joined the Fantasy Points team before the start of the 2024 season. He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who has not experienced a losing money season in any of his 25 years in this hobby.