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Championship Week Q&A



By Doug Orth | 12/26/25 |

A few years ago, I decided to use the final Blitz of the season to give fantasy managers a sounding board for their toughest lineup decisions entering their league's fantasy championship game. Given how well the idea was received initially, it only made sense to extend it to all three fantasy playoff weeks.

Below are five reader questions (submitted via X or the FFT forum) and my advice. Any special scoring rules will also appear in the question or immediately thereafter.

Before I begin, I would like to congratulate each of you for making it this far. This season was easily the most frustrating and challenging for me in my 25-plus years of doing this, and I can only imagine many of you feel the same. I also want to thank each of you for your support this year and the two decades I have been with this site.

jrokh: Dallas Goedert (@ BUF) or Taysom Hill (@ TEN)?

Need two: Woody Marks (@ LAC), Tony Pollard (vs. NO) and Zach Charbonnet (@ CAR)?

The short answer: Hill, Marks and Pollard.

My rationale: In one corner, we have a player in Goedert who began the season with five straight double-digit fantasy efforts, followed by 8.3 points or less in five of the next six. He is currently on a three-game run of producing like a TE1 again, including two outings in which the matchup was not in his favor. How the offense is functioning at a given time seems to be much more important to him than the matchup. With that said, the only two tight ends to pop off against Buffalo this season are more glorified slot receivers (Mike Gesicki and Harold Fannin Jr.). Goedert is much more of an in-line tight end, so I would be hard-pressed to play him this week.

In the other corner, we have Hill - a fantasy analyst's nightmare. Projecting him requires insider access to the room of Kellen Moore (and Klint Kubiak, Pete Carmichael and Sean Payton before him) because his job is to be whatever the Saints need a given week. Last week, that meant he was lined up in the backfield 16 times. (Week 12 was the only other time this season he was in the backfield for more than five snaps.) That led to a team-high 12 carries (seven more than anyone else). Can we expect a repeat of that in Week 17? I doubt it. I think it is clear Moore prefers him to Audric Estime and Evan Hull as a runner, but that means less this week (against a reasonably stout Tennessee run defense) than it did versus the Jets. I am leaning Hill over Goedert only because Hill has the potential to match Goedert as a pass-catcher while also adding a few yards as a passer or runner. For what it's worth (and if it was not already obvious), I have very little confidence in this call.

As far as the call at running back, I suppose Charbonnet's upside is as high as that of Woods or Marks. The problem with him is that he is a touchdown-or-bust option. How much, you ask? His highest PPR output in a game in which he did not score a touchdown this year is 8.6. On the other hand, he has scored in eight of the 14 games he played so far this season. He has managed more than 54 total yards only twice. In other words, we are talking about a low floor. At least with Marks and Pollard, we can tell ourselves a story that either one - if not both - could be in line for 20-plus touches if they are active and things go mostly to form. The only way Charbonnet is getting there is if Kenneth Walker goes down.

uwmalcolm: (0.5 PPR) Brock Purdy (vs. CHI) or Trevor Lawrence (@ IND)?

Pick two running backs, two receivers and a flex from the following: Omarion Hampton (vs. HOU), Tyrone Tracy (@ LV), Michael Carter (@ CIN), Ja'Marr Chase (@ ARI), Chris Olave (@ TEN), Mike Evans (@ MIA) and Courtland Sutton (@ KC)? Hampton, Chase and Olave are locks.

The short answer: Lawrence, Hampton, Tracy, Chase, Olave and Evans.

My rationale: I am not sure there is a wrong answer to the quarterback question, but I think the questionable status of George Kittle (ankle) lowers Purdy's ceiling just enough that I could not start him in good conscience over Lawrence, who is the overall QB1 in fantasy over the last three weeks. Jake Tonges proved he is a more than capable replacement for Kittle, but we cannot pretend that he demands the same attention from defensive coordinators. While the Bears are a better matchup than the Colts from a season-long perspective, most of the big games they surrendered to quarterbacks were during the first half of the season. On the other hand, the Colts will almost certainly be without CBs Sauce Gardner (calf) and Charvarius Ward (concussion) again. A national audience saw what a good quarterback can do to a defense missing those key pieces. While Purdy's five-touchdown effort against Indianapolis showed the world what was possible against that defense, those kinds of performances rarely happen two weeks in a row. Furthermore, Jacksonville is playing well enough on defense that the Jags will probably lean on the running game for the final 15-20 minutes.

I agree with you on your locks, so let's discuss the other options. Tracy versus Carter comes down to the likelihood that the former handles more work than the latter. Arizona has been lukewarm on Carter for some time now, typically refraining from putting too much work on his plate even when he is highly efficient with it. I will not dismiss the possibility of Carter scoring a touchdown against the friendliest matchup for running backs this season, but I think it is just as likely that Arizona will use the final two weeks of the season to see if it has something in Corey Kiner. The other question that needs to be answered is Evans versus Sutton (who plays Christmas night). Evans' status as Baker Mayfield's favorite option has not taken a hit despite how long the former missed with a shoulder injury. Whatever the game script is in Miami this week, we can bet either Evans will be catching a touchdown from a (hopefully) resurgent Mayfield or serve as a frequent target of Mayfield's as the Bucs go pass-heavy if/when they fall behind. The same cannot be said about any other Tampa Bay receiver right now.

tbk420: (Non-PPR) Blake Corum (@ ATL) or Michael Carter (@ CIN)?

The short answer: Corum.

My rationale: Not many people are going to see this question the same way I see it, but tbk420 is essentially asking if he should start a 1B back on perhaps the best offense in the league in a middling matchup versus the perceived bell-cow on a middling offense in the best matchup a back could ask for in 2025.

I shared some of my thoughts about Carter in the question above. The non-PPR element of this question makes it a bit easier for me to answer because we really only have to ask ourselves two things: 1) which running back is the most likely to gain the most total yards and 2) which running back is the most likely to score a touchdown? Carter is probably the answer to the first question because he is typically involved as a receiver in an offense that is usually in negative game script. The problem is that last week still concerns me; he was very efficient with his opportunities and the Cardinals still made sure to involve all three backs. Corum has already proven to have significant yardage upside even without the benefit of receiving yards, as he has amassed at least 61 in four straight. Carter has scored three total touchdowns in 20 games as a Cardinal, while Corum has five in the last four games alone. The matchup could easily work to the benefit of Carter and make everything I said in the last few sentences meaningless, but I would still argue the upside play is Corum.

Jauan Jennings

@Adam_Gellman: Brock Purdy (vs. CHI) or Joe Burrow (vs. ARI)?

Choose two: Mike Evans (@ MIA), Jauan Jennings (vs. CHI), Courtland Sutton (@ KC) or Michael Wilson (@ CIN)?

The short answer: Burrow, Evans and Jennings.

My rationale: I discussed Purdy in the previous question, so I will get straight to why I would start Burrow. The upside with Burrow is immense; he has thrown for four scores in two of his last three games. His primary weapons are healthy and he is set to face a defense that has given up three touchdowns to each of the last three starting quarterbacks it has faced (and five of the last six). Arizona has four cornerbacks on the injury report. Even if each of them is somehow available for Week 17, the best pair the Cardinals can put out is a pair of rookies (versus Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins). S Budda Baker (concussion, thumb) appears unlikely to go, further weakening a defense that has already been one of the worst in football for at least two months.

Evans was discussed earlier as well and Sutton has already played. (I answered Adam before Thursday night.) This leaves Jennings and Wilson. Jennings is actually the player from this group that I have projected to do the most damage this weekend, primarily because George Kittle (ankle) appears unlikely to suit up. While many people love the battlefield promotion of a team's second option in the passing game moving into the primary spot, it does not mean the new No. 1 sees alpha usage. Ultimately, Jennings has a few things working in his favor to make me believe he will handle those duties well in Week 17. First and foremost, HC Kyle Shanahan does as good a job getting players open with his scheme as any play-caller or designer. Perhaps just as importantly, Jennings has never created much separation and tends to win with physicality. That is kind of a big deal when you consider defenses are typically fixated on Christian McCaffrey. Between Shanahan's schemes and the attention McCaffrey draws away from San Francisco's pass-catchers, Jennings should have it easier than most players who move from the second chair to the first chair.

There are a few reasons why I am down on Wilson this week. This will be Arizona's first and only cold-weather game of the year. There is also a distinct possibility he draws shadow coverage from D.J. Turner and not Marvin Harrison Jr. (Why would the Bengals have their stud corner travel with a receiver who will likely be on a snap count again and has already acknowledged he is playing through an injury?) Fantasy managers have been riding the Jacoby Brissett negative game script gravy train for almost half of a season at this point, but I think we saw in Week 16 why he has been a journeyman for the last five years. While I will not pretend that the Bengals are as good defensively as the Falcons, DC Al Golden will undoubtedly utilize some of the same tricks Atlanta used to make Brissett a 51.6 percent passer. Let's also not forget that Arizona already has an easy button in the passing game. His name is Trey McBride, and he is about to face a defense that is among the worst in the history of the game at giving up production to tight ends. I think Wilson is capable of something approaching five catches for 60-70 yards, but that is only if he avoids Turner. We won't know that for sure until after the game has started, so give me Evans and Jennings.

Showboat: (Keeper) Is Devin Neal a worthwhile hold or is it better to keep Sam LaPorta in the hope that he returns to a more prominent role in the Lions' offense next season?

The short answer: Keep LaPorta.

My rationale: I am not going to pretend to be jazzed by the thought of keeping LaPorta when I think that his time as a potential long-term elite asset may have passed the moment that former OC Ben Johnson left for Chicago. With that said, it does not mean that he cannot still be a very good asset at a position fantasy managers often struggle to fill. Much will depend on if/when Detroit moves on from OC John Morton (I doubt HC Dan Campbell wants to continue calling the plays) and who the Lions hire to replace him. Nevertheless, I think we have already seen the variables that need to fall into place for LaPorta to be relevant over the last year or two. Either one or both of Amon-Ra St. Brown or Jameson Williams needs to miss time, thus opening up a bigger share of the target pie for him. The other path to production for LaPorta is that the defense has to be so bad that volume comes as a result of negative game script.

I can understand why Showboat asks about Neal in this question. Neal's biggest obstacle is that Alvin Kamara is likely tied to the team for at least one more season, and that doesn't take into account Kendre Miller returning to form. Releasing Kamara next season would result in a dead money charge of over $18 million (if he is cut before June 1) and save the club only about $360,000 against the cap. Barring injuries to Kamara and Miller again next year, I don't see much of a path for Neal to be the lead back in New Orleans until 2027.


Doug Orth has served as an analyst for FF Today since 2006 and joined the Fantasy Points team before the start of the 2024 season. He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who has not experienced a losing money season in any of his 25 years in this hobby.