A few years ago, I decided to use the final Blitz of the season
to give fantasy managers a sounding board for their toughest lineup
decisions entering their league's fantasy championship game. Given
how well the idea was received initially, it only made sense to
extend it to all three fantasy playoff weeks.
Below are seven reader questions (submitted via X or the FFT
forum) and my advice. Any special scoring rules will also appear
in the question or immediately thereafter. As a result of receiving
more questions than usual this week, I will keep my answers shorter
this week.
My rationale: I have to make a similar (not
the same) decision in one of my leagues this week between Dart
and Caleb Williams. (I may end up going with Tyler Shough …
sigh.) The matchup says Mayfield is the better play, as the Vikings
rank as the stingiest defense for quarterbacks on the season.
Even if we narrow the view to just the last month or so, no quarterback
has thrown or run for a touchdown against Minnesota since Lamar Jackson did so in Week 10. Some of that "success" is
circumstantial, as the Bears (Week 11) and Packers (Week 12) have
become run-heavy offenses this season and found the path to beating
the Vikings much easier by doing what they do best. The Seahawks
(Week 13) had little reason to force the pass in the "Max Brosmer game." Jayden Daniels reinjured his elbow in Week
14, which meant Marcus Mariota had to face a Brian Flores defense
with few - if any - practice reps. That makes Dak Prescott's Week
15 bagel the one legit zero-TD effort by a quarterback that Minnesota
has produced in over a month. With that said, I would prefer not
starting a rookie quarterback against a Flores-led defense.
I think it will come out at some point during the offseason that
Mayfield is playing through some kind of injury. While I recognize
he has not had most of his supporting cast for most of the season,
he was effectively playing at an MVP level for nearly half of
the season with an ever-changing cast of characters less talented
than his current crew. Now, as he is getting them back, he is
struggling to complete 60 percent of his passes or throw for more
than 200 yards? I am not buying it. The good news is we saw signs
of progress against Atlanta in Week 15. Week 16 will mark only
the second time all season that he has every pass-catcher available
to him that he anticipated having this summer. Carolina appears
to be a tough matchup against quarterbacks, but context is needed
here as well. While the Panthers have done a fine job against
some big-name quarterbacks lately, we need to remember Brock
Purdy played arguably the worst game of his career against
them in Week 12 and Matthew
Stafford did not handle the elements well the following week.
(While DC Ejiro Evero and his unit deserve some credit, we need
to remember Tyler Shough has played two of his best games against
the same defense recently, so I don't think that Carolina is nearly
as bad a matchup as it first appears.)
LVSaint429: Two flex options: Chase Brown (@ MIA), D.J. Moore
(vs. GB), Justin Jefferson (@ NYG), Jayden Higgins (vs. LV)
The short answer: Brown and Moore.
My rationale: This is the case where I believe a coin toss might
be a better option than my trying to rationalize who my second
flex option would be. I am not going to spend a lot of time on
Brown, if only because any player capable of producing seven straight
games of 15 PPR fantasy points or more is an automatic start for
me. Four times during that stretch, Brown has earned at least
six targets.
In theory, Moore should be set up for more success this week
with Rome Odunze (foot) likely on the verge of being shut down
for the rest of the regular season and Luther Burden III (ankle) ruled
out. Moore is also coming off the second-best game of his season,
which happened only days after HC Ben Johnson noted that he has
to do a better job of getting Moore the ball. While the absence(s)
of Odunze and Burden should result in Moore getting as many targets
as he can handle, we are also only two weeks removed from him
losing four yards on his only catch against Green Bay. The volume
has not been there all season long, either, which means there
is a very good chance he could be useless in fantasy if he doesn't
find the end zone.
I thought I saw improved chemistry between J.J. McCarthy and
Jefferson last week. McCarthy missed a throw or two and Jefferson
could have had another catch or two, but it felt like they were
not far off. With that said, Jefferson's ceiling outcome in a
McCarthy start this season is 16.7 PPR fantasy points. The floor?
Well, he has not sniffed double digits in four straight and five
of six. (Max Brosmer started one of those games.) I cannot recommend
giving him the nod just because I thought I saw some improvement.
The time for hoping their connection will get better has come
and gone. We can revisit that next year. For now, I can't take
that chance.
Once again, I think we need to look at what the ceiling is when
it comes to someone like Higgins. I don't care about last week's
1-4-0 showing. Houston jumped out on Arizona early and he was
not needed. What I do care about is a player who has yet to top
five catches or 65 yards. Another thing I care about is the Raiders
likely putting up less of a fight than the Cardinals did. There
is a very real chance C.J. Stroud may not throw more than 20-22
times. Maybe one of those targets is an end-zone throw to Higgins,
but I would hate to have my fantasy team's fortunes rely on the
probability of that happening. They are not that high.
Captain America: (Non-PPR) Need two receivers and one flex or
three receivers. I have a 50-point lead after one week in a two-week
playoff format, so I need more floor versus ceiling.
The short answer: Evans, Smith and Monangai (pending D'Andre
Swift's availability on Saturday night). If Swift is available,
then my answer would be Evans, Smith and McMillan.
My rationale: Injuries, depth-chart changes and/or bad matchups
make this an easier question to answer than most of the ones on
here. Waddle was already going to be a dicey start based on the
likelihood that he will draw a D.J. Turner shadow this weekend.
That was before the Dolphins benched Tua Tagovailoa, so I will
not recommend him now with Quinn Ewers making his first NFL start.
McMillan is dealing with foot and ankle injuries this week. Thankfully,
he practiced in full on Thursday. I like his matchup enough to
make him one of my three starters (over Monangai, assuming Swift
is active). I have little choice but to start Corum in one of
my leagues, but it is not a decision I am thrilled about. There
is plenty of upside attached to him, but the downside is that
Seattle is one of the worst matchups for running backs. Also,
Captain America is looking for solid floor plays here.
I have Evans projected for 5-88-1 this week, so he is a clear
starter in this scenario. He did not miss a beat in his first
action in over two months in Week 15, and it is not as if the
Panthers have not allowed production to receivers lately. (Carolina
has given up at least 10 non-PPR fantasy points to wideouts in
five straight. Smith has not been the most consistent producer
this season and has failed to score 10 points in five straight.
With that said, I still feel good about him as a floor play against
a Washington defense that is a top 10 matchup for receivers and
has replacement parts in its secondary. Monangai has been outperformed
by Swift in recent weeks, yet I like him as a floor play here
for two reasons: 1) Chicago will be without two of the top three
receivers and could go even more run-heavy than usual and 2) Swift's
practice participation this week was not overly encouraging, which
could also lead to more work for Monangai.
uwmalcolm: (0.5 PPR) I need to pick three of these receivers:
Ja'Marr Chase (@ MIA), Mike Evans (@ CAR), Chris Olave (vs. NYJ)
or Courtland Sutton (vs. JAC)?
Also, would you go with Lamar Jackson (vs. NE) or Brock Purdy
(@ IND) at quarterback? (Four points for passing TDs.)
The short answer: Chase, Evans, Olave and Purdy.
My rationale: The good news is I have all four of the receivers
ranked inside my top 20 this week. I am starting Chase and Evans
without a second thought this week (and most weeks), so the question
is Olave versus Sutton for me. Both players are getting slight
bumps this week as well due to recent developments. For Olave,
Devaughn Vele (shoulder) was ruled out earlier in the week, which
should ensure Olave sees at least 10 targets in a matchup that
does not scare me very much. As for Sutton, the likely return
of Pat Bryant should mean we see less of Troy Franklin, which
is a good thing for Sutton's production. (I discussed the Sutton-Franklin
corollary in an earlier edition of the Blitz.) Jacksonville is
playing good defense right now, but it is also not a team that
I would consider a daunting matchup for someone like Sutton. With
that said, I would argue the Jaguars are considerably better on
defense than the Jets, so I would lean toward Olave from that
perspective. Olave also has much less target competition, so I
would feel slightly more comfortable using him than Sutton this
week.
I invested heavily in Jackson this season, so I am not overly
thrilled things have unfolded the way they have to the point where
he is not an auto-start. The Patriots are a middling matchup for
quarterbacks, but one that has struggled a bit against dual-threat
quarterbacks. Jackson is the ultimate dual threat who appears
to be as healthy as he has been in at least two months, but he
has provided his fantasy managers just one typical Jackson performance
since Week 9. While I don’t necessarily believe in hot/cold
quarterbacks, I need some recent evidence of a player hitting
his ceiling to start or recommend him (the Week 14 game may have
been that, but it was far from his best work). Meanwhile, the
Colts are a worse matchup for quarterbacks than New England when
we look at things from a season-long perspective. With that said,
Indy is once again not expected to have the services of CBs Ahmad Gardner or Charvarius Ward, which means the secondary is a weakness.
I hate the thought of benching Jackson at any point, but I think
the path to scoring two touchdowns is much easier for Purdy than
Jackson this week. In years past, Jackson could overcome that
with rushing volume and/or efficiency. We are not getting a lot
of either from him this year, however.
polecatt: (PPR; one point per 25 yards, six-point bonus for
100 yards and big long-ball TD bonus) RJ Harvey (vs. JAC) or TreVeyon
Henderson (@ BAL)?
The short answer: Henderson.
My rationale: The first hurdle this week was Harvey being able
to practice after exiting Week 15 with a rib injury. He began
the week with a pair of full practices, so he should be good to
go. The bigger hurdle will be trying to solve Jacksonville's run
defense, which has not allowed a non-Jonathan Taylor running back
to rush for more than 63 yards all season. Christian McCaffrey
is the only running back to top 20 PPR fantasy points. In fact,
only five running backs have scored more than 15 fantasy points
against the Jags. I do not expect Harvey to become the sixth.
Jacksonville has not been allowing big plays to running backs
(obviously) and Harvey has not created many of late, settling
for a long run of 15 yards over his last six games and a long
catch of 12 over his last five despite handling more work than
he has all season. Given the scoring specifications above, Harvey
is not a great bet to score more than three points via yardage,
hit the 100-yard bonus or score on a long play. Conversely, Henderson
is handling about the same amount of work as his fellow rookie
and has busted a few big runs over that same span. The Ravens
have undeniably improved against the run as the season has progressed,
but this is also the same defense that has given up RB1-level
production to Chase Brown (twice) and Kenneth Gainwell over the
last three games. In short, Harvey's ceiling this week should
be about where Henderson's floor starts.
Lake209: Is Drake London an auto-start this week if he is active
or more of a wait-and-see?
In full-PPR, rank these running backs for Week 16: TreVeyon
Henderson (@ BAL), RJ Harvey (vs. JAC), Woody Marks/Jawhar Jordan
(vs. LV) and Aaron Jones (@ NYG).
Would you start Jaylen Waddle over any of the above RBs, especially
in light of Tua Tagovailoa's benching?
The short answer(s): Yes to the first question
and no to the third. I will address the second question below.
My rationale: My quick thought on London would be this: if he
is cleared to play by the team on Friday, we have to assume he
is good enough to go. If he is healthy enough to play, the matchup
does not get much better than against an Arizona defense that
has three cornerbacks on the injury report and two more who will
not be eligible to play.
Regarding Waddle, I addressed this above. Waddle was already
going to be a dicey start based on the likelihood that he will
draw a DJ Turner shadow this weekend. Tagovailoa's benching
and Quinn Ewers making his first NFL start are a bridge too far
for me to count on Waddle this weekend.
Not knowing Marks' availability makes this an almost impossible
question to answer. Since he has not practiced yet this week and
Nick Chubb was a full participant on Thursday, I have to assume
Marks will not play and Chubb will, which eliminates both Houston
running backs listed above. Even if Marks practices on Friday
and plays, we have no way of knowing how healthy he is. The only
other name I have not discussed already is Jones, who draws the
same sweet matchup this week that allowed Jacory Croskey-Merritt
to rise from the dead last week. I feel decent enough about Minnesota
controlling the action in Week 16 that I think Jones is in the
best position to succeed from this group, followed by Henderson
and Harvey. The decision between Jones and Henderson is close
enough that I would not blink if you chose Henderson over Jones.
In short, I am playing Jones if I want a solid floor. I am playing
Henderson if I think I need the upside.
Adam_Gellman: Joe Burrow (@ MIA), Brock Purdy (@ IND) or Justin
Herbert (@ DAL)?
Choose two: Mike Evans (@ CAR), Michael Wilson (vs. ATL), Jauan
Jennings (@ IND), Courtland Sutton (vs. JAC)?
The short answer: Burrow, Evans and Wilson (for now)
My rationale: Let's make this a quick one. Herbert
has the best matchup of the quarterbacks above, but his recent
play (and the injuries he is likely playing through) has to be
part of the equation here. Starting the first full week after
LT Joe Alt was lost for the season, Herbert has failed to exceed
16.2 fantasy points. Week 15 was only the second time over the
same stretch that he threw for more than 151 yards. Week 10 was
the last time he attempted even 30 passes. A great matchup only
goes so far. I discussed Purdy above, so we move on to Burrow.
Does anyone expect the Bengals to be shut out again? What are
the odds that a Quinn Ewers-led offense is going to move the ball
with any kind of consistency? Burrow may not need to pass for
many yards in Week 16, as Cincinnati could have a few short fields
in this one. With that said, I will usually bet on Burrow throwing
for a couple of scores in any week that Ja'Marr
Chase is healthy.
The only receivers above that I have not already discussed are
Wilson and Jennings. It seems a bit too easy to say the presence
(or absence) of Marvin Harrison Jr. is the one variable that will
decide if Wilson is a WR1 this week or a flex option. My thinking
at the moment is that Harrison is still limited in practice with
his heel injury after missing the last two games because of it.
The "limited" tag tells us he still is not healthy,
so it would be borderline ridiculous for OC Drew Petzing to force-feed
him the ball when the (garbage-time) offense has been rolling
without him. I may have to backtrack on my initial projection
of Wilson being the overall WR1 this week if Harrison plays, but
I still think WR1-level production is achievable. Jennings has
been San Francisco's highest-scoring wide receiver in eight straight
games. While that does not mean as much in San Francisco as it
does in other places (George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey are
the primary target-earners), it does mean he is likely to take
advantage of the absences of Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward.
With that said, I expect Colts-49ers to be more of a grind-it-out
affair. The answer to this question comes down to whether you
want to believe Wilson has some upside left if Harrison plays
(as I do) or if Sutton has a high enough floor to avoid the risk.
As of Friday (Dec. 20), I would play Wilson over Sutton.
Doug Orth has served as an analyst for FF Today since 2006 and joined the Fantasy Points team before the start of the 2024 season. He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who has not experienced a losing money season in any of his 25 years in this hobby.