Fantasy managers often have to ask themselves several questions
after Week 1 each year. The most common is some form of the following:
Is a one-game sample enough for me to cut bait with a player? Another
question is whether one game is enough to believe in a player who
flew under the radar on draft day.
On one hand, Week 1 is the first time teams are required (at
least the ones who are serious about competing for a Super Bowl)
to show their hands. Playing time, personnel package usage, red
zone activity and target share are among the many ways teams communicate
to fantasy football fanatics about how they see their players.
On the other hand, one week is a ridiculously small sample size
from which to draw conclusions. For better or worse, the lack
of games in the NFL (relative to every other major sport) often
means we have to make snap decisions after one game, often in
hopes that we don't miss out on this year's waiver-wire darling
or miss a buy-low window before the door is slammed shut.
This week, I will discuss four lower-profile players - some of
which were available on the waiver wire before the opener and
may still be - who piqued my interest in Week 1 and assess whether
they are for real moving forward or more of a one-week flash in
the pan.
Note: Players are listed in the order of the value that I
believe they will have for the rest of the season.
Fantasy managers were right to target a Cleveland tight end in
Week 1, especially against a Bengals defense that parted with
LB Germaine Pratt in the offseason and started rookie Demetrius Knight Jr. The heavy use of 12 personnel (two tight ends) probably
should have been expected as well given how much buzz Fannin generated
in camp.
If you had Fannin logging 55 snaps (to David Njoku's 64) and
the Browns lining up in 12 personnel on over 50 percent of their
plays on your Week 1 bingo card, congrats. (You are also a liar.)
Some more conservative fantasy managers might tell you that Fannin's
involvement (team-high nine targets) was a fluke and something
the Browns did to surprise the Bengals. While that is certainly
a possibility, it does not explain why the rookie was given five
opportunities (four targets and a rush attempt out of the Wildcat)
on the team's opening drive or served as Joe Flacco's first read
24 percent of the time. He was even the target on two of Flacco's
first three throws.
For those who care about such things, Fannin is one of five tight
ends in league history - dating as far back as 1979, per Pro Football
Reference - to earn nine targets in his NFL debut and one of two
to catch seven of them (Tyler Warren being the other). While it
is far too early to draw any solid conclusions, the fact that
his usage mirrored Warren's - a tight end who was being drafted
in the seventh round in my high-stakes leagues - WITH a healthy
Njoku speaks volumes. The fact that he handled an early touch
out of the Wildcat speaks to how much HC Kevin Stefanski wants
to get the ball in his hands in any way possible.
Verdict: Most of what
I said about Fannin this spring proved to be correct. What
I did not realize at that time was that the Browns would be willing
to cut Diontae
Johnson and make 12 personnel their base personnel package.
Something else I did not expect to see was Fannin looking a bit
like Brock Bowers
in his movement skills and run-after-catch ability. I am obviously
not comparing the two, but Fannin is here to stay. He appears
to be Cleveland's primary slot receiver (41.7 percent slot rate
in Week 1) with tight end eligibility. Managers who are dealing
with injuries to George
Kittle or Dallas
Goedert should be able to get by with Fannin at the very least.
The most likely outcome is that he serves as the primary short-area
option in an offense that will rely heavily on the short passing
game and see plenty of negative game script. In a best-case scenario
for the third-round rookie, Njoku - who is in the final year of
his contract - is traded and Fannin becomes the unquestioned owner
of the middle of the field. In that scenario, we could see an
outcome in which Fannin does a very good impression of Bowers.
The concern is that Fannin is merely an offensive weapon and will
never be a full-time tight end.
The initial fallout from the box score was undoubtedly pro-Benson.
The second-year back handled nine touches (compared to James Conner's
16) and produced the biggest play of the game - an explosive 52-yard
run in which he had to dodge some traffic in the backfield before
sprinting down the sideline. Largely by virtue of that run, he
outgained Conner 75-44 in total yards.
In reality, Benson probably did not close the gap as much as
it may have appeared at first blush. Conner held a 43-22 edge
in snaps, including a 23-11 advantage on pass plays. On the plus
side, Benson's 22 snaps tied a career high. No other running back
saw a snap outside of Conner and Benson, so it would appear the
latter has clearly established himself as a three-down option
if the former is forced to miss any time, although it seems likely
he would give up a few snaps on passing downs to Emari Demercado
in such a circumstance. The 52-yard run more than doubled his
longest run from last season and is one yard shy of Conner's longest
gallop in 2024. While it would be wrong to say that Conner cannot
break long runs, it is safe to say he would not have gained 52
yards on Benson's run.
Verdict: It is hard to say Benson had a great day, especially
considering his other seven carries produced 17 yards. The line
struggled to open up lanes for either back. Nevertheless, there
is a reason why Benson found his way onto more than half of my
fantasy teams this season. Betting on an explosive young player
who is a clear handcuff to a 30-year-old back with an injury history
is a bet I will make in the 10th round or later year after year.
Benson's fantasy managers should be encouraged this week because
it appears Arizona is serious about the possibility of having
the two backs serve in a 1A/1B role.
While that may not be great news for Conner's fantasy managers,
it might be good for his ability to make it through a full season
for the first time in his career. Conversely, Benson appears well
on his way to carving out standalone value in 2025 after Conner
effectively kept him glued to the sideline as a rookie. Obviously,
the reason Benson needs to be on fantasy rosters is because he
stands to inherit a juicy role if Conner gets hurt, but he becomes
even more appealing if he ends up being a discount version of
Jordan Mason. Week 1 was a step in the right direction for that
to happen.
What do we make out of Boutte finishing with six catches and
103 yards on eight targets in Week 1? The first thing we probably
need to remember is that he was facing a Las Vegas secondary that
is starting Kyu
Kelly and ex-Packer first-rounder Eric
Stokes at cornerback. Outside of maybe Miami's collection
of cornerbacks, the Raiders may have the worst group in the league.
Stefon Diggs,
who is well ahead of schedule in his rehab from a torn ACL, had
his snaps somewhat limited because the team wants to ramp up his
workload responsibly. If for no other reason than the size of
the contract he signed with the Patriots (three years, $69 million),
Diggs will be the alpha receiver in New England when his recovery
is complete. Or will he?
On one hand, Week 1 was the third time in Boutte's last four
games in which he compiled at least five catches and 95 receiving
yards. That has to mean something, especially since all of them
came with Drake Maye as his quarterback. (There's a but …)
On the other hand, context needs to be applied to all three of
his big games. He barely lined up opposite stud Bills CB Christian Benford in Week 16 against Buffalo last season when he went off
for five catches, 95 yards and a touchdown. Benford did not suit
up for a meaningless Week 18 game (7-117-1). There was the aforementioned
effort last week against a bad secondary. The one example we have
of Boutte facing legit competition came in Week 17 last season
against the Chargers, who held him to four catches and 28 scoreless
yards.
With that said, it takes a somewhat dominant player to produce
95 receiving yards in three of four games regardless of the circumstance.
Right? We are talking about a player in Boutte who once was so
highly thought of that he had played ahead of a young Malik Nabers
and Brian Thomas Jr. at LSU. That same receiver is now attached
at the hip to Maye. We are discussing a player who has a considerable
head start on Diggs in the chemistry department with his quarterback
and not much in the way of other competition for his job at the
moment.
Verdict: The context of Boutte's huge games recently has me not
buying him as a waiver-wire darling who we can plug into our WR3
slot every week. Diggs will eventually become a full-time player.
Demario Douglas is not going to lose his slot job anytime soon.
Kyle Williams will eventually push for more snaps. OC Josh McDaniels
has to find about 10 targets per game for TreVeyon Henderson and
Hunter Henry. Maye will not throw 46 passes every week (or even
the 36 he did in Week 16). This is an offense more likely to ground
it out and rely on Maye as a runner than one that will air it
out 40 times. Boutte feels like a great depth option in fantasy
right now, but my enthusiasm for him is limited for the reasons
I just stated.
When I am trying to figure out how important a pass-catcher is
to his team, I typically look through the play-by-play of a game
to get a rough idea of where he stands - multiple games if it
is after Week 1. Among other things, I want to see how early he
was involved and how late he was involved. Allow me to explain
…
In short, how early a player is targeted gives me some information
as to how much a part of the game plan he likely was. If a player
is seeing a Fannin-like four targets and a carry on the first
drive, it is safe to say it was likely intentional. Involvement
late in the game (or late in a drive) helps me understand how
much his quarterback trusts him and how much he is a part of the
red zone plan.
In Week 1, Johnson was not involved early (two first-half targets).
It wasn't until the Saints' first drive of the second half and
New Orleans trailing 20-10 that Spencer Rattler started peppering
him with targets (four on the first drive of the second half alone).
Johnson then went radio silent for about a quarter until he picked
up three more targets in the final 1:20, including two inside
the red zone in the final 13 seconds.
Verdict: It is probably safe to say Rattler will throw about
40 times most weeks since the Saints are highly unlikely to win
more than a handful of games. On the plus side, Johnson was on
the field for 74 of 75 plays, giving him an absurd 97 percent
snap share. Some of his playing time was out of necessity, as
Foster Moreau (knee) and Taysom Hill (knee) remain sidelined with
injuries for the foreseeable future. Consecutive red zone targets
with the game on the line tell me that Rattler believes Johnson
is probably Rattler's favorite target inside the 20.
My concern with Johnson being anything more than a short-term
fix in fantasy is being a tertiary option on a bad offense led
by a middling quarterback who may also lose playing time to a
teammate in about a month or so. Using Johnson as a short-term
Band-Aid for losing George
Kittle makes a lot of sense, but I have my doubts about Johnson
being a player we are talking about around Thanksgiving as someone
who proved to be the reason fantasy teams are on the verge of
securing a first-round bye.
Doug Orth has served as an analyst for FF Today since 2006 and joined the Fantasy Points team before the start of the 2024 season. He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who has not experienced a losing money season in any of his 25 years in this hobby.