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Fannin' the Flames



By Doug Orth | 9/12/25 |

Fantasy managers often have to ask themselves several questions after Week 1 each year. The most common is some form of the following: Is a one-game sample enough for me to cut bait with a player? Another question is whether one game is enough to believe in a player who flew under the radar on draft day.

On one hand, Week 1 is the first time teams are required (at least the ones who are serious about competing for a Super Bowl) to show their hands. Playing time, personnel package usage, red zone activity and target share are among the many ways teams communicate to fantasy football fanatics about how they see their players.

On the other hand, one week is a ridiculously small sample size from which to draw conclusions. For better or worse, the lack of games in the NFL (relative to every other major sport) often means we have to make snap decisions after one game, often in hopes that we don't miss out on this year's waiver-wire darling or miss a buy-low window before the door is slammed shut.

This week, I will discuss four lower-profile players - some of which were available on the waiver wire before the opener and may still be - who piqued my interest in Week 1 and assess whether they are for real moving forward or more of a one-week flash in the pan.

Note: Players are listed in the order of the value that I believe they will have for the rest of the season.

Harold Fannin Jr.

TE Harold Fannin Jr., Browns

Fantasy managers were right to target a Cleveland tight end in Week 1, especially against a Bengals defense that parted with LB Germaine Pratt in the offseason and started rookie Demetrius Knight Jr. The heavy use of 12 personnel (two tight ends) probably should have been expected as well given how much buzz Fannin generated in camp.

If you had Fannin logging 55 snaps (to David Njoku's 64) and the Browns lining up in 12 personnel on over 50 percent of their plays on your Week 1 bingo card, congrats. (You are also a liar.) Some more conservative fantasy managers might tell you that Fannin's involvement (team-high nine targets) was a fluke and something the Browns did to surprise the Bengals. While that is certainly a possibility, it does not explain why the rookie was given five opportunities (four targets and a rush attempt out of the Wildcat) on the team's opening drive or served as Joe Flacco's first read 24 percent of the time. He was even the target on two of Flacco's first three throws.

For those who care about such things, Fannin is one of five tight ends in league history - dating as far back as 1979, per Pro Football Reference - to earn nine targets in his NFL debut and one of two to catch seven of them (Tyler Warren being the other). While it is far too early to draw any solid conclusions, the fact that his usage mirrored Warren's - a tight end who was being drafted in the seventh round in my high-stakes leagues - WITH a healthy Njoku speaks volumes. The fact that he handled an early touch out of the Wildcat speaks to how much HC Kevin Stefanski wants to get the ball in his hands in any way possible.

Verdict: Most of what I said about Fannin this spring proved to be correct. What I did not realize at that time was that the Browns would be willing to cut Diontae Johnson and make 12 personnel their base personnel package. Something else I did not expect to see was Fannin looking a bit like Brock Bowers in his movement skills and run-after-catch ability. I am obviously not comparing the two, but Fannin is here to stay. He appears to be Cleveland's primary slot receiver (41.7 percent slot rate in Week 1) with tight end eligibility. Managers who are dealing with injuries to George Kittle or Dallas Goedert should be able to get by with Fannin at the very least. The most likely outcome is that he serves as the primary short-area option in an offense that will rely heavily on the short passing game and see plenty of negative game script. In a best-case scenario for the third-round rookie, Njoku - who is in the final year of his contract - is traded and Fannin becomes the unquestioned owner of the middle of the field. In that scenario, we could see an outcome in which Fannin does a very good impression of Bowers. The concern is that Fannin is merely an offensive weapon and will never be a full-time tight end.

RB Trey Benson, Cardinals

The initial fallout from the box score was undoubtedly pro-Benson. The second-year back handled nine touches (compared to James Conner's 16) and produced the biggest play of the game - an explosive 52-yard run in which he had to dodge some traffic in the backfield before sprinting down the sideline. Largely by virtue of that run, he outgained Conner 75-44 in total yards.

In reality, Benson probably did not close the gap as much as it may have appeared at first blush. Conner held a 43-22 edge in snaps, including a 23-11 advantage on pass plays. On the plus side, Benson's 22 snaps tied a career high. No other running back saw a snap outside of Conner and Benson, so it would appear the latter has clearly established himself as a three-down option if the former is forced to miss any time, although it seems likely he would give up a few snaps on passing downs to Emari Demercado in such a circumstance. The 52-yard run more than doubled his longest run from last season and is one yard shy of Conner's longest gallop in 2024. While it would be wrong to say that Conner cannot break long runs, it is safe to say he would not have gained 52 yards on Benson's run.

Verdict: It is hard to say Benson had a great day, especially considering his other seven carries produced 17 yards. The line struggled to open up lanes for either back. Nevertheless, there is a reason why Benson found his way onto more than half of my fantasy teams this season. Betting on an explosive young player who is a clear handcuff to a 30-year-old back with an injury history is a bet I will make in the 10th round or later year after year. Benson's fantasy managers should be encouraged this week because it appears Arizona is serious about the possibility of having the two backs serve in a 1A/1B role.

While that may not be great news for Conner's fantasy managers, it might be good for his ability to make it through a full season for the first time in his career. Conversely, Benson appears well on his way to carving out standalone value in 2025 after Conner effectively kept him glued to the sideline as a rookie. Obviously, the reason Benson needs to be on fantasy rosters is because he stands to inherit a juicy role if Conner gets hurt, but he becomes even more appealing if he ends up being a discount version of Jordan Mason. Week 1 was a step in the right direction for that to happen.

WR Kayshon Boutte, Patriots

What do we make out of Boutte finishing with six catches and 103 yards on eight targets in Week 1? The first thing we probably need to remember is that he was facing a Las Vegas secondary that is starting Kyu Kelly and ex-Packer first-rounder Eric Stokes at cornerback. Outside of maybe Miami's collection of cornerbacks, the Raiders may have the worst group in the league. Stefon Diggs, who is well ahead of schedule in his rehab from a torn ACL, had his snaps somewhat limited because the team wants to ramp up his workload responsibly. If for no other reason than the size of the contract he signed with the Patriots (three years, $69 million), Diggs will be the alpha receiver in New England when his recovery is complete. Or will he?

On one hand, Week 1 was the third time in Boutte's last four games in which he compiled at least five catches and 95 receiving yards. That has to mean something, especially since all of them came with Drake Maye as his quarterback. (There's a but …) On the other hand, context needs to be applied to all three of his big games. He barely lined up opposite stud Bills CB Christian Benford in Week 16 against Buffalo last season when he went off for five catches, 95 yards and a touchdown. Benford did not suit up for a meaningless Week 18 game (7-117-1). There was the aforementioned effort last week against a bad secondary. The one example we have of Boutte facing legit competition came in Week 17 last season against the Chargers, who held him to four catches and 28 scoreless yards.

With that said, it takes a somewhat dominant player to produce 95 receiving yards in three of four games regardless of the circumstance. Right? We are talking about a player in Boutte who once was so highly thought of that he had played ahead of a young Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. at LSU. That same receiver is now attached at the hip to Maye. We are discussing a player who has a considerable head start on Diggs in the chemistry department with his quarterback and not much in the way of other competition for his job at the moment.

Verdict: The context of Boutte's huge games recently has me not buying him as a waiver-wire darling who we can plug into our WR3 slot every week. Diggs will eventually become a full-time player. Demario Douglas is not going to lose his slot job anytime soon. Kyle Williams will eventually push for more snaps. OC Josh McDaniels has to find about 10 targets per game for TreVeyon Henderson and Hunter Henry. Maye will not throw 46 passes every week (or even the 36 he did in Week 16). This is an offense more likely to ground it out and rely on Maye as a runner than one that will air it out 40 times. Boutte feels like a great depth option in fantasy right now, but my enthusiasm for him is limited for the reasons I just stated.

TE Juwan Johnson, Saints

When I am trying to figure out how important a pass-catcher is to his team, I typically look through the play-by-play of a game to get a rough idea of where he stands - multiple games if it is after Week 1. Among other things, I want to see how early he was involved and how late he was involved. Allow me to explain …

In short, how early a player is targeted gives me some information as to how much a part of the game plan he likely was. If a player is seeing a Fannin-like four targets and a carry on the first drive, it is safe to say it was likely intentional. Involvement late in the game (or late in a drive) helps me understand how much his quarterback trusts him and how much he is a part of the red zone plan.

In Week 1, Johnson was not involved early (two first-half targets). It wasn't until the Saints' first drive of the second half and New Orleans trailing 20-10 that Spencer Rattler started peppering him with targets (four on the first drive of the second half alone). Johnson then went radio silent for about a quarter until he picked up three more targets in the final 1:20, including two inside the red zone in the final 13 seconds.

Verdict: It is probably safe to say Rattler will throw about 40 times most weeks since the Saints are highly unlikely to win more than a handful of games. On the plus side, Johnson was on the field for 74 of 75 plays, giving him an absurd 97 percent snap share. Some of his playing time was out of necessity, as Foster Moreau (knee) and Taysom Hill (knee) remain sidelined with injuries for the foreseeable future. Consecutive red zone targets with the game on the line tell me that Rattler believes Johnson is probably Rattler's favorite target inside the 20.

My concern with Johnson being anything more than a short-term fix in fantasy is being a tertiary option on a bad offense led by a middling quarterback who may also lose playing time to a teammate in about a month or so. Using Johnson as a short-term Band-Aid for losing George Kittle makes a lot of sense, but I have my doubts about Johnson being a player we are talking about around Thanksgiving as someone who proved to be the reason fantasy teams are on the verge of securing a first-round bye.


Doug Orth has served as an analyst for FF Today since 2006 and joined the Fantasy Points team before the start of the 2024 season. He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who has not experienced a losing money season in any of his 25 years in this hobby.