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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Sizing up the Competition - 2019 Edition
All Out Blitz: Volume 159
11/7/19

At least once around the midpoint of every season, I try to spend a week or two putting together a piece with a daily fantasy spin. I'll be the first to admit I'm not a DFS shark, nor do I sink hundreds upon thousands of dollars into it. In fact, I'm not even a big fan of playing the Sunday slate. There are just too many games, too many variables to consider and too many possible roster combinations for me to consider to think I'm going to win more than I lose. Quite frankly, I'm usually ready to take a break after setting about 20 lineups. How others are able to set hundreds of lineups is beyond me.

Anyway, my favorite DFS target is the two-game offering for the Monday-Thursday tilts. With only two NFL games to consider, I greatly reduce the variance and the volume of players to consider. That's a significant part of the battle in terms of increasing my odds of turning a profit. I also decided about two years ago that I would focus mostly on playing $1 games with an eye toward building up my bankroll, perhaps doing so over the course of multiple seasons. That may not sound overly ambitious and/or profitable, but I compare it somewhat to the person who is interested in running their own business at some point down the road but keeps it a part-time gig due to the peace of mind they have with their full-time job.

I won a 7,000-entry tournament about three years ago and finished in a six-way tie for first in a 14,000-entry tournament a couple of weeks ago. Shortly before my first win, I submitted a piece that looked quite similar to the one I'm doing this week. Following my most recent win, I decided it made sense to bring in back because of how easily season-long owners and/or DFS players can apply the information to their lineups without having to think too much. I've included some observations after each position group that caught my eye during the research phase of this article.

Notes: The numbers below are ranks based on the total points allowed to that position in a week, not what one particular player did against that defense.

Each table is sorted from lowest to highest in the "Avg" column. To avoid any potential confusion, the smaller the number in each column, the more advantageous that matchup was for the position group. "Hi" and "Lo" are self-explanatory, and I've added "Top 10" and "Bot 10" as a quick reference to illustrate how consistently a particular defense thrives/struggles against a position.

 Weekly Rank for D/STs vs. QBs
Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Avg. Hi Lo Top 10 Bot 10
Arizona Cardinals 5 2 6 17 10 1 21 1 2 7.2 1 21 7 0
Cincinnati Bengals 16 6 15 12 5 2 11 8 bye 9.4 2 16 4 0
Oakland Raiders 19 1 25 6 17 bye 1 3 4 9.5 1 25 5 1
Atlanta Falcons 21 11 11 5 1 5 6 17 bye 9.6 1 21 4 0
Miami Dolphins 1 4 7 9 bye 15 8 16 22 10.3 1 22 5 0
Detroit Lions 13 25 9 11 bye 12 3 2 12 10.9 2 25 3 1
New York Giants 2 7 5 30 9 7 23 7 8 10.9 2 30 7 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25 24 2 8 4 14 bye 10 1 11.0 1 25 5 2
Houston Texans 4 15 12 29 2 11 5 6 26 12.2 2 29 4 2
Seattle Seahawks 14 20 16 14 12 10 7 9 10 12.4 7 20 4 0
Kansas City Chiefs 10 28 10 4 21 3 25 4 9 12.7 3 28 6 2
New York Jets 18 18 14 bye 18 13 20 5 5 13.9 5 20 2 0
New Orleans Saints 3 8 1 25 13 26 14 24 bye 14.3 1 26 3 3
Cleveland Browns 11 30 23 3 15 4 bye 13 16 14.4 3 30 2 1
Washington Redskins 9 3 13 20 6 22 26 21 14 14.9 3 26 3 1
Philadelphia Eagles 7 9 26 2 29 6 13 15 28 15.0 2 29 4 3
Jacksonville Jaguars 6 23 21 7 19 16 16 20 11 15.4 6 23 2 0
Baltimore Ravens 29 13 3 15 16 18 19 bye 20 16.6 3 29 1 1
Minnesota Vikings 15 19 20 19 22 8 4 29 18 17.1 4 29 2 1
Tennessee Titans 28 14 17 16 14 25 10 11 19 17.1 10 28 1 2
Indianapolis Colts 12 21 8 18 11 bye 18 27 25 17.5 8 27 1 2
Carolina Panthers 27 22 18 22 8 20 bye 19 6 17.8 6 27 2 1
Pittsburgh Steelers 8 5 30 28 20 17 bye 23 13 18.0 5 30 2 2
Los Angeles Rams 32 26 29 1 3 19 22 14 bye 18.3 1 32 2 3
Green Bay Packers 30 29 31 10 7 21 9 12 24 19.2 7 31 3 4
Los Angeles Chargers 17 17 4 23 25 23 15 28 21 19.2 4 28 1 2
Chicago Bears 24 16 27 26 26 bye 2 25 17 20.4 2 27 1 5
Dallas Cowboys 22 12 28 24 23 9 24 bye 23 20.6 9 28 1 3
Buffalo Bills 23 27 19 27 24 bye 12 18 27 22.1 12 27 0 4
Denver Broncos 20 31 24 13 28 27 17 26 15 22.3 13 31 0 5
San Francisco 49ers 31 10 22 bye 30 28 27 30 7 23.1 7 31 2 5
New England Patriots 26 32 32 21 27 24 28 22 3 23.9 3 32 1 6

- The Lions have played three games with top CB Darius Slay either out or limited to 18 snaps or fewer. In those three games, opposing quarterbacks have finished with an average rank of 5.3. In his four healthy games, the average rank is 14.8. While there are certainly other factors to consider than Slay's health, that's a pretty sizable gap.

- Cleveland has played four games with and four games without starting corners Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams. In the contests both were available, the average QB finish was 17.5. Without them, it was 11.3.

- Since Marshon Lattimore experienced his "reawakening" after giving up 10 catches on 13 targets for 152 yards in his coverage against the Seahawks in Week 3 - the third top-10 finish in as many tries against New Orleans up to that point - the Saints have not allowed a top-12 finish to a quarterback since. In their last five games against New Orleans, quarterbacks have averaged a QB20 finish.

- Denver's defense has run hot-and-cold this season, failing to force a turnover in six of nine games and failing to register a sack in four contests. With that said, HC Vic Fangio's defense is the only one that has yet to allow a top-12 finish by a quarterback.

- Beginning in Week 6, the Colts have been the stingiest defense for opposing cornerbacks. While keeping Joe Flacco (Week 8) and Mason Rudolph (Week 9) in check isn't a remarkable achievement, it is notable Indianapolis also did a fine job containing Deshaun Watson (17.5 fantasy points). Considering the Colts did pretty much the same thing to Patrick Mahomes in Week 5, it's probably best for fantasy owners to avoid starting their quarterbacks against Indianapolis for now.

 Weekly Rank for D/STs vs. RBs
Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Avg. Hi Lo Top 10 Bot 10
Detroit Lions 13 4 12 6 bye 6 2 7 3 6.6 2 13 6 0
Miami Dolphins 3 3 6 3 bye 19 19 9 18 10.0 3 19 5 0
Green Bay Packers 12 5 2 4 19 23 9 20 1 10.6 1 23 5 0
Kansas City Chiefs 27 21 1 16 11 7 8 1 6 10.9 1 27 5 1
Cincinnati Bengals 15 1 16 2 6 15 16 19 bye 11.3 1 19 3 0
Washington Redskins 20 12 21 8 5 5 18 5 14 12.0 5 21 4 0
Chicago Bears 31 10 18 10 4 bye 4 14 8 12.4 4 31 5 1
Carolina Panthers 11 19 14 20 13 18 bye 2 4 12.6 2 20 2 0
Los Angeles Chargers 9 13 27 26 8 2 14 6 19 13.8 2 27 4 2
New York Jets 22 9 9 bye 17 11 1 17 28 14.3 1 28 3 1
Tennessee Titans 14 16 22 9 25 9 6 26 2 14.3 2 26 4 2
Cleveland Browns 5 8 32 25 3 8 bye 16 20 14.6 3 32 4 2
Buffalo Bills 18 14 17 11 21 bye 10 3 24 14.8 3 24 2 1
New York Giants 26 6 11 30 7 3 5 25 21 14.9 3 30 4 3
Houston Texans 4 26 15 7 10 17 21 21 16 15.2 4 26 3 1
Atlanta Falcons 7 29 13 23 18 1 13 18 bye 15.3 1 29 2 1
Seattle Seahawks 29 17 7 14 20 4 27 11 9 15.3 4 29 3 2
Oakland Raiders 24 25 3 22 16 bye 3 15 15 15.4 3 25 2 2
Denver Broncos 16 20 10 5 9 27 17 13 23 15.6 5 27 3 1
Arizona Cardinals 23 24 8 15 22 10 15 4 22 15.9 4 24 3 1
Los Angeles Rams 1 30 20 12 12 13 28 12 bye 16.0 1 30 1 2
Dallas Cowboys 8 11 28 27 2 22 12 bye 25 16.9 2 28 2 3
Indianapolis Colts 2 18 24 19 29 bye 24 10 10 17.0 2 29 3 3
Jacksonville Jaguars 6 28 23 29 1 14 25 29 5 17.8 1 29 3 4
Philadelphia Eagles 21 22 19 17 24 21 7 22 11 18.2 7 24 1 1
Baltimore Ravens 32 27 4 1 26 25 22 bye 13 18.8 1 32 2 4
Pittsburgh Steelers 10 7 5 28 23 24 bye 27 26 18.8 5 28 3 4
Minnesota Vikings 30 2 26 21 30 12 11 24 17 19.2 2 30 1 4
New Orleans Saints 19 15 25 24 15 20 20 30 bye 21.0 15 30 0 3
San Francisco 49ers 17 31 31 bye 28 26 23 8 7 21.4 7 31 2 4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25 32 30 13 14 16 bye 28 27 23.1 13 32 0 5
New England Patriots 28 23 29 18 27 28 26 23 12 23.8 12 29 0 5

Fantasy football is a game of probabilities. While talent, scheme and volume all play a sizable role in determining weekly fantasy success at running back, a defense that simply maintains gap integrity and plays with as much effort as possible is going to limit how much a player can do on the ground. With that said, it should go without saying every defense is going to make a mistake from time to time - 30 of 32 teams have yielded at least one top-12 finish and 29 of 32 have allowed at least a top-seven effort. While I highly doubt there will ever be a way to quantify a defense's ability to maintain gap integrity and play with 100 percent effort, this kind of study does a relatively good job of highlighting the teams doing it the best.

- With behemoths like Damon "Snacks" Harrison and A'Shawn Robinson anchoring the middle of the defense, the Lions should be considerably better against the run than they have been. While it should be noted Detroit has faced its share of studs (David Johnson, Austin Ekeler, Dalvin Cook, Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs), the Lions' inability to run the ball has contributed greatly to their defense facing a ton of volume (25 carries and 5.5 catches per game from opposing backs). That has obviously played a critical role in their inability to keep a single opponent below an RB13 finish.

- Although the Bears haven't come anywhere close to matching the bar they set last season (and probably shouldn't have been expected to in the first place), it wasn't too much to ask for them to be stout against running backs again. Beginning in Week 4 - when DT Akiem Hicks missed his first game and including his early exit in Week 5 - Chicago has surrendered a top-10 finish to running backs four times in five tries. While one player is rarely ever the only reason why an entire unit falls off a cliff, it's obvious the Bears miss him. He's not eligible to come off IR until Week 15 at the earliest, so owners can feel reasonably confident about playing their backs against Chicago for at least another month.

- The Jaguars have been wildly inconsistent against the running back position this season, giving up three top-six finishes and five performances in which their opponent barely reached an RB2 level. The common theme: the three top-six finishes came against opponents who did not hesitate to take advantage of Jacksonville's injury woes at linebacker by using their backs in the passing game.

- The Saints haven't quite been impenetrable on the ground - Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette have all fared reasonably well against them in fantasy - but their ability to control the ball and play with the lead throughout the first half of the season has been impressive. Opposing backs are averaging a mere 22 touches against them and none of the last three teams have been able to get their running back into the end zone.

- San Francisco appears to be showing some cracks in its armor lately, but owners should pump the brakes on calling it a trend just yet. Christian McCaffrey was almost entirely responsible for Week 8's finish, while Kenyan Drake was able to show what he is capable of now that he is free from the Dolphins' offense. If Chris Carson is able to deliver a solid low-end RB1 performance this week and does so with a fair amount of efficiency, then we might have a story. I'm just not sure a couple of top-10 finishes means this is the beginning of the end of the 49ers' dominant defense.

- The stingiest defense against running backs since Week 3 has been the Steelers. Over the first three games, Pittsburgh did an acceptable job of containing running backs but couldn't control the volume (89 carries and 22 catches) against three strong opponents - New England, Seattle and San Francisco - or get anything going offensively. In their five most recent contests, however, the Steelers' defense has faced a total of 92 rushing attempts by running backs and allowed 23 receptions to the position while also playing with the lead much more often.

 Weekly Rank for D/STs vs. WRs
Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Avg. Hi Lo Top 10 Bot 10
Houston Texans 11 21 2 17 7 7 4 7 17 10.3 2 21 5 0
New York Giants 1 7 5 30 6 8 23 1 12 10.3 1 30 6 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 14 10 1 4 6 bye 19 1 10.6 1 30 5 1
New York Jets 17 8 3 bye 27 13 12 5 4 11.1 3 27 4 1
Oakland Raiders 15 1 28 12 10 bye 6 16 3 11.4 1 28 4 1
Baltimore Ravens 24 3 8 11 15 16 11 bye 6 11.8 3 24 3 1
Miami Dolphins 9 17 14 10 bye 14 13 8 14 12.4 8 17 3 0
Atlanta Falcons 29 16 11 5 1 10 15 14 bye 12.6 1 29 3 1
Carolina Panthers 20 15 12 25 3 2 bye 17 10 13.0 2 25 3 1
Philadelphia Eagles 12 2 18 3 20 1 14 21 27 13.1 1 27 3 1
Detroit Lions 7 20 17 28 bye 9 8 6 13 13.5 6 28 4 1
Arizona Cardinals 13 30 13 24 5 5 16 13 5 13.8 5 30 3 2
Pittsburgh Steelers 2 6 24 21 23 18 bye 10 9 14.1 2 24 4 1
New Orleans Saints 6 11 4 26 14 27 3 23 bye 14.3 3 27 3 2
Minnesota Vikings 8 18 23 15 17 12 1 27 11 14.7 1 27 2 1
Washington Redskins 3 4 7 23 13 19 25 22 19 15.0 3 25 3 1
Seattle Seahawks 5 28 29 19 8 20 26 3 2 15.6 2 29 4 3
Jacksonville Jaguars 10 25 19 4 19 21 10 18 16 15.8 4 25 3 1
Tennessee Titans 18 23 20 8 11 24 22 4 15 16.1 4 24 2 1
Indianapolis Colts 19 29 9 9 9 bye 2 28 24 16.1 2 29 4 3
Cincinnati Bengals 25 9 21 22 18 26 7 2 bye 16.3 2 26 3 2
Cleveland Browns 32 27 1 7 26 4 bye 11 25 16.6 1 32 3 4
Los Angeles Chargers 14 19 16 14 21 28 5 15 20 16.9 5 28 1 1
Los Angeles Rams 28 24 27 2 12 25 20 9 bye 18.4 2 28 2 4
Kansas City Chiefs 4 26 30 6 28 11 18 26 23 19.1 4 30 2 4
San Francisco 49ers 27 5 15 bye 25 23 27 24 8 19.3 5 27 2 4
Green Bay Packers 26 22 31 29 2 15 21 12 22 20.0 2 31 1 3
Dallas Cowboys 23 13 26 20 30 3 28 bye 18 20.1 3 30 1 3
Chicago Bears 31 12 6 18 29 bye 19 25 26 20.8 6 31 1 4
Buffalo Bills 22 10 25 27 24 bye 9 29 21 20.9 9 29 2 4
Denver Broncos 21 31 22 16 22 22 17 30 7 20.9 7 31 1 2
New England Patriots 16 32 32 13 16 17 24 20 28 22.0 13 32 0 4

What's the value of having a top-flight cornerback? Well, it could be argued Buffalo (Tre'Davious White), Denver (Chris Harris) and New England (Stephon Gilmore) are home to three of the best ones in the league, and to the surprise of no one paying attention, those three defenses rank as the stingiest defenses for wideouts. Jaire Alexander (Green Bay), Richard Sherman (San Francisco) and Casey Hayward (LA Chargers) are also playing well for their respective teams. Lo and behold, those teams also rank among the 10 stingiest defenses against receivers.

- The first thing that jumped out to me is how relatively little impact the return of Patrick Peterson has had on the Cardinals' ability to contain quarterbacks or receivers. Peterson's debut came in Week 7 when the Giants could must only a 21st-place finish, but the Teddy Bridgewater-led Saints and Jimmy Garoppolo-led 49ers have carved Arizona up. Michael Thomas caught all four of his targets in Peterson's coverage in Week 8 and Emmanuel Sanders roughed up Peterson to the tune of four catches for 90 yards on five targets in Week 9. Of particular note in that game against San Francisco was the Cardinals' decision to let Peterson follow Sanders into the slot. It did not go well for Peterson, obviously.

- It's been well-documented that Houston has been decimated by injury in the secondary, which is why Jacksonville's lackluster effort in London in Week 9 was such a surprise. In five of the Texans' previous six games, opponents went to town on their secondary. It's also possible their familiarity with the Jaguars helped. Houston's best two performances - in terms of limiting the output of opposing receivers - have come against Jacksonville. Each of their other seven opponents has managed to finish inside 11th or better.

- The season didn't start out particularly well for receivers against the Bucs, but the floodgates began to open in Daniel Jones' debut in Week 3 and were blown off their hinges in Week 4 when the Rams torched their secondary. Since that time, only Tennessee's up-and-down passing game has failed to post a top-six finish against Tampa Bay.

- As up-and-down as Jacksonville is versus running backs, Seattle might be even more unpredictable against receivers. The Seahawks have allowed four top-eight finishes to the position, while their other five foes have ended up 19th or lower. It probably comes as no surprise the four bad poor efforts by Seattle's came in games in which the opponent attempted at least 44 passes (Bengals, Rams, Falcons and Buccaneers).

- Week 9 notwithstanding (in which they faced 46 pass attempts from Tom Brady - 25 of which were thrown in the direction of Mohamed Sanu and Julian Edelman), the Ravens are probably one of the few teams that are actually a worse matchup (for owners) than they appear to be above. Last week marked the first time all season that Jimmy Smith, newly acquired Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey got a chance to play together. Patrick Mahomes is the only quarterback to account for more than one touchdown against Baltimore, so owners are rolling the dice if they believe their guy is going to be the one that finds the end zone in a given week versus this secondary.

 Weekly Rank for D/STs vs. TEs
Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Avg. Hi Lo Top 10 Bot 10
Arizona Cardinals 3 1 4 5 20 2 12 12 2 6.8 1 20 6 0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 15 7 5 4 3 18 bye 1 4 7.1 1 18 6 0
Chicago Bears 6 10 19 26 4 bye 10 15 1 11.4 1 26 5 1
Oakland Raiders 26 3 15 3 19 bye 7 2 16 11.4 2 26 4 1
Dallas Cowboys 2 19 22 17 10 13 4 bye 12 12.4 2 22 3 0
Seattle Seahawks 7 4 28 25 1 7 13 4 24 12.6 1 28 5 3
Indianapolis Colts 17 20 2 1 13 bye 17 17 14 12.6 1 20 2 0
Kansas City Chiefs 16 5 9 12 17 4 26 19 7 12.8 4 26 4 1
Los Angeles Rams 19 27 18 11 9 3 8 9 bye 13.0 3 27 4 1
Atlanta Falcons 32 6 6 27 5 9 6 23 bye 14.3 5 32 5 2
Detroit Lions 28 29 16 8 bye 15 2 8 8 14.3 2 29 4 2
Pittsburgh Steelers 31 2 13 23 7 1 bye 29 9 14.4 1 31 4 2
Tennessee Titans 13 9 14 7 14 27 5 21 20 14.4 5 27 3 1
Washington Redskins 11 8 21 14 8 17 16 16 26 15.2 8 26 2 1
Denver Broncos 8 13 25 15 26 12 14 6 19 15.3 6 26 2 2
Minnesota Vikings 10 31 3 19 12 8 19 24 13 15.4 3 31 3 2
Green Bay Packers 30 24 20 6 22 21 1 5 11 15.6 1 30 3 2
Jacksonville Jaguars 14 22 10 16 30 11 23 3 15 16.0 3 30 2 1
Cleveland Browns 4 31 26 9 2 26 bye 27 5 16.3 2 31 4 4
Philadelphia Eagles 9 16 23 2 28 14 9 20 28 16.6 2 28 3 2
Houston Texans 21 14 30 28 11 16 3 14 18 17.2 3 30 1 2
New Orleans Saints 29 15 7 13 24 25 15 11 bye 17.4 7 29 1 3
Miami Dolphins 1 23 17 20 bye 24 20 18 17 17.5 1 24 1 1
Carolina Panthers 12 28 31 21 15 6 bye 10 23 18.3 6 31 2 2
New York Jets 20 30 24 bye 6 10 21 26 10 18.4 6 30 3 3
New York Giants 5 26 12 24 27 23 24 22 3 18.4 3 27 2 4
Cincinnati Bengals 24 17 8 22 23 5 28 25 bye 19.0 5 28 2 3
Baltimore Ravens 25 25 11 10 21 19 22 bye 21 19.3 10 25 1 2
Los Angeles Chargers 22 18 1 29 18 28 11 30 22 19.9 1 30 1 3
Buffalo Bills 27 12 29 30 16 bye 18 7 27 20.8 7 30 1 4
New England Patriots 23 21 32 18 25 22 27 13 6 20.8 6 32 1 3
San Francisco 49ers 18 11 27 bye 29 20 25 28 25 22.9 11 29 0 5

It amazes me in a day and age in which creating mismatches in the passing game is at a premium, the tight end position continues to lag behind from a fantasy perspective. Some teams have the combination of linebackers and safeties to shut down the position, but those defenses are relatively few and far between. New England and San Francisco certainly have the personnel to handle the majority of tight ends, but only one player has seen more than five targets against either one - and a good chunk of Rhett Ellison's seven looks in Week 6 came in garbage time. Far too often, teams with a strong "tight end defense" benefit more from offenses ignoring the position than elite defensive personnel.

- Vance Joseph's defenses in Denver struggled to stop opposing tight ends, as did his defense in Miami in his only season with the Dolphins in 2016. It should come as no surprise then that betting on whatever tight end is facing Arizona in a particular week is a remarkably strong bet to finish inside the top 12. Budda Baker was considered an undersized free safety who would thrive as a center fielder but a player who could struggle against tight ends when he arrived in the league in 2017. That appears to be exactly what is happening here. George Kittle went for 3-41-1 on four targets against him last week and Josh Hill caught all three of his targets for 39 yards in Week 8. Tremaine Brock and Haason Reddick were beaten for touchdowns by tight ends in the previous two weeks. In fact, the Bengals are the only opponent this season unable to solve the easy tight end riddle posed by Joseph.

- While Arizona has received more pub in the fantasy community for its inability to defend tight ends, Tampa Bay has been even more woeful against the position since Week 1. The Bucs have the personnel - certainly at linebacker with No. 5 overall pick Devin White and longtime stud Lavonte David - to be among the best at defending the position, but neither player has graded out very well in coverage per Pro Football Focus. In fact, it's alarming how bad White (passer rating allowed of 137.5) - a player drafted specifically to help slow down the receiving backs in the NFC South - has been.

- For the most part, Detroit started the season out well defending tight ends, even holding up reasonably well against Zach Ertz. It's probably not a coincidence the Lions' troubles started when S Quandre Diggs got hurt in Week 4 and they haven't stopped since. Diggs returned in Week 7 but was traded to Seattle days later, suggesting it might be a while before the Lions can find an answer to a problem that has existed for years: containing tight ends.

- John Johnson III was reasonably effective in terms of his effectiveness in coverage through six games (85.3 passer rating allowed), although his coverage grades per PFF left something to be desired. The Rams were shaping up to be a reasonably difficult matchup for tight ends before Johnson got hurt in Week 6, but they have been dreadful against them since. Including that game against the 49ers, Los Angeles has been drilled by George Kittle, Austin Hooper and Tyler Eifert in succession. While it's not a sin to get beat by Kittle and Hooper while also noting the Rams have faced some of the better tight ends the NFL has to offer in the first half, LB Cory Littleton is the only regular back-seven player who owns a passer rating against below 106.7. In other words, Eric Weddle and Taylor Rapp are struggling as are all of the other linebackers. The Rams really don't face another tight end of note until Kittle again in Week 16, but owners may want to gravitate toward targeting this defense in fantasy and for DFS when considering tight ends, especially if Vance McDonald can replicate the success in Week 10 that Eifert enjoyed in Week 8.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.