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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


First Quarter Projections - AFC & NFC East
Preseason Matchup Analysis
7/21/15

East | North | South | West

A d v e r t i s e m e n t

“Evolution is a process of constant branching and expansion.”
- Stephen Jay Gould, American paleontologist, evolutionary biologist and science historian

When I began writing “Preseason Schedule Analysis” back in 2008, the goal was to easily and quickly identify positive and negative matchups. Even though analytics had already been put to work in other sports, websites like Pro Football Focus were either in their infancy or had not been created yet, so metrics like “average depth of target” (aDOT) were nonexistent. Furthermore, most NFL fans didn’t have the ability to watch more than 3-4 games a week at broadcast angle and they certainly weren’t going to be able to study all 16 at their computer.

Football has certainly evolved since that time and so have the metrics we use to break the game down. In the beginning, it was enough for me to consider a team like Baltimore or Pittsburgh to be bad news for every fantasy player they faced. Now, my PMAs consider factors such as the likelihood of how often a certain receiver will play in the slot and the quality of the defender that projects to be the nickel corner – and how he matches up against him physically. Mismatch opportunities are incredibly important in today’s game, so a thorough and accurate analysis of potential matchups to target and avoid is one easy way for an owner to gain a serious advantage on his competition.

“You must always be able to predict what's next and then have the flexibility to evolve.”
- Marc Benioff, chairman and CEO of salesforce.com

It is important to keep an open mind and be willing to slightly alter a successful product or process in order to stay ahead of the competition and also give a more informed consumer what he or she needs. The PMA series and Big Boards have been a success based on the feedback I have received over the years, but the time has come for the process to evolve. (Much will stay the same, however, so there is no need to worry.) Let’s briefly detail at some of the reasons why changes needed to be made:

1) Time – Some analysts are able to hammer out their projections in less than a week and it works fine for them. That’s not my style because I want to know that I considered as many relevant factors as possible; that kind of analysis takes time. However, projecting each player for 32 teams is a huge undertaking that often took me well over a month. That’s too long.

2) Flexibility – A good “system” should be easily adaptable. In other words, it shouldn’t be difficult to plug in the unique lineup requirements and scoring rules from one reader and hammer out a top 100 if necessary. That wasn’t happening either.

Furthermore, since the values that I attach to each player on my Big Boards were projection-driven, it left me little wiggle room in terms of how I stacked the board. A ranking system has to be able to account for a talent that may emerge in the second half of the season and just needs to wait his turn. While I was accounting for that possibility during the projection phase of my PMAs, I had to try to pin it down to a certain week. As we all know, that is very difficult to do.

3) The chaos of the NFL season – This is the big one. We can spend all summer talking about and/or projecting how Player X is going to do this or Player Y is going to do that. Then, a Week 1 season-ending injury or Week 3 depth-chart change renders those projections moot. The latter is sometimes predictable, but projecting a season’s worth of stats for a player that isn’t playing after September seems unnecessary.

There are other reasons why change was necessary, but that gives you a general idea of why the PMAs had to evolve. No longer will I project a full season, but blocks of four games. Coaches often divide the season into four quarters and tend to make personnel and/or schematic adjustments around the end of the “first quarter”. As such, I plan on doing the same and am committed to providing second-, third- and fourth-quarter projections in the All-Out Blitz after Weeks 4, 8 and 12 moving forward.

Below you will see my initial first-quarter projections for each of the eight total teams in the AFC and NFC East. I have color-coded the matchups for the full season, however, because I still think it is essential for owners to know what they are signing up for in the second half of the season (and especially the fantasy playoffs) when they select a certain player. The stat projections and schedule analysis will still factor into the overall ranking of a player on my Big Boards, but will be one of about six or seven position-specific attributes that will be weighted, graded and scored. Those attributes, their explanations and the overall grades will make their first appearance on the Big Boards in mid-August. I’m aware this probably sounds needlessly complex and even more time-consuming, but believe me when I say I think it will probably cut my time in half and, more importantly, end up being a better product in the end.

Here’s a quick refresher of what each of the colors mean in each team’s projection chart below:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this is a neutral matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for the defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

For an example as to the amount of possibilities and factors I consider, take a look below at the Miami Dolphins’ projections. Jarvis Landry does not have a single “red” on his schedule because: 1) players like the New York Jets’ Darrelle Revis and Indianapolis Colts’ Vontae Davis rarely move into the slot when a player like Landry slides inside and 2) although I am high on corners like the Jets’ Buster Skrine or the Philadelphia Eagles’ Brandon Boykin to defend him, I doubt either player will shut him down. Furthermore, slot work figures to only be part of what Landry does, so he’ll probably see Revis and Antonio Cromartie line up across from him anyway at certain points. That is why he gets a yellow and not a red or a white. In other cases (which I will discuss as we move along with these projections), players like Davis play on only one side of the ball while virtually every receiver will see time on the left and right side of the formation. In still other cases, the quality of the quarterback (Buffalo, for example) can take a potential green matchup and turn into a neutral one. As you can tell, a lot of thought goes into the color-coding system.

Other important notes:

- The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of the season. Black boxes represent bye weeks. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2015.

- These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. In other words, don’t be alarmed if the projections on the Big Boards are different from the ones you see here.

Key to the table below:

PPR Aver - Points per game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
NPPR Aver - Points per game in non-PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non-PPR - Total points scored in non-PPR.


AFC East

 Buffalo Bills
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
IND NE MIA NYG TEN CIN JAC bye MIA NYJ NE KC HOU PHI WAS DAL
QB EJ Manuel 25 12.8 12.8 51.1 51.1 815 200 185 260 170
TD 3 1 1 1 0
INT 3 1 0 2 0
Ru Yards 65 20 5 15 25
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB LeSean McCoy 27 16.9 14.4 67.5 57.5 365 80 95 60 130
Ru TD 2 1 0 0 1
Re Yards 90 30 15 35 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 10 3 2 4 1
RB Fred Jackson 34 7.5 6 30 24 80 15 25 10 30
Ru TD 2 0 1 0 1
Re Yards 40 5 0 20 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 6 1 0 3 2
WR Sammy Watkins 22 13.1 8.1 52.5 32.5 0 0 0 0 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 265 60 75 80 50
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 20 4 5 7 4
WR Percy Harvin 27 9.3 6.3 37 25 40 15 5 0 20
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 1
Re Yards 150 35 25 50 40
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 3 2 4 3
WR Robert Woods 23 4.5 3 18 12 60 20 10 30 0
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 6 2 1 3 0
TE Charles Clay 9.3 5.5 37 22 160 40 25 45 50
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 15 4 2 4 5

Key changes
HC: Replaced Doug Marrone with Rex Ryan
OC: Replaced Nathaniel Hackett with Greg Roman
QB: Traded for Matt Cassel and added Taylor in free agency
RB: Traded for McCoy; allowed C.J. Spiller to sign with New Orleans
WR: Signed Harvin in free agency
TE: Signed Clay in free agency, allowed Scott Chandler to sign with New England

Matchup analysis: This offense figures to go about as far as McCoy and his likely 300-plus carries can take it. In a statement that will be repeated throughout this article, the AFC East should be a beast defensively. That opinion is reflected in the seven yellows and three reds handed out to both McCoy and Jackson, who figures to play a pure backup role this season. The pre-bye slate is more than manageable for McCoy, who could be one of the league’s leading rushers after Week 7. Not only should he have volume on his side, but the defense should keep just about every game in favorable running conditions (with the Bills in the lead or down by no more than one score) for Buffalo. Coming out of the break, McCoy faces a daunting schedule that makes the first half look like a cakewalk. Houston (4.0 YPC allowed) and Philadelphia (3.7) both finished in the top 10 in defending the run – in terms of yards per carry – and substantially upgraded their ability to stuff it in the offseason. The addition of DT Ndamukong Suh in Miami and NT Terrance Knighton in Washington should significantly improve those teams’ rush defenses as well, making it unlikely that McCoy will carry his fantasy teams in the second half of the season.

Few teams with dominant defenses that promise volume in the running game do so if they have some clarity at quarterback, which the Bills do not. The trio of Cassel, Manuel and Taylor could have Buffalo trying to lure Kyle Orton out of retirement by midseason if recent history is any indication. That fact alone makes counting on any Buffalo quarterback, receiver or tight end a risky proposition this season. Watkins’ natural talent (and the general lack of shadow corners and/or defenses with two quality corners on the schedule) means he only has one red matchup on his schedule (Week 10 against the Jets), but weekly consistency could be an issue for his fantasy owners. Harvin should see his share of gadget plays and is the likely slot receiver on a team that won’t be looking to take many chances in the passing game, so he has that working for him. The overall lack of volume in the passing game will be a problem for him, however, making it very unlikely he can be anything more than a WR4. Clay should also benefit from Buffalo’s conservative offensive nature and has a favorable enough schedule that he may not see much drop-off from his days in Miami.

 Miami Dolphins
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
WAS JAC BUF NYJ bye TEN HOU NE BUF PHI DAL NYJ BAL NYG SD IND
QB Ryan Tannehill 27 18.7 18.7 74.8 74.8 970 260 300 220 190
TD 6 3 2 0 1
INT 3 1 1 0 1
Ru Yards 60 10 5 20 25
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Lamar Miller 24 12.5 10 50 40 265 70 75 65 55
Ru TD 1 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 75 30 15 15 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 10 3 2 2 3
RB Jay Ajayi 22 5.5 4.5 22 18 100 25 40 20 15
Ru TD 1 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 20 5 10 0 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 1 1 0 2
WR DeVante Parker 22 6.3 4.3 25 17 110 30 50 20 10
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 8 2 3 2 1
WR Jarvis Landry 22 13.8 8 55 32 260 70 80 65 45
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 23 6 8 5 4
WR Kenny Stills 23 4.9 2.9 19.5 11.5 115 50 30 20 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 3 3 1 1
WR Greg Jennings 31 8 5 32 20 140 25 45 40 30
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 12 2 4 3 3
TE Jordan Cameron 27 14.4 10.1 57.5 40.5 225 45 70 40 70
Re TD 3 1 1 0 1
Rec 17 3 5 3 6

Key changes
RB: Drafted Ajayi
WR: Drafted Parker
TE: Added Cameron in free agency, allowed Charles Clay to sign with Buffalo

Matchup analysis: Anyone betting the over on Miller topping his production from last year (216 carries for 1,099 yards and eight touchdowns; 38 catches for 275 yards and another score) should probably reconsider. Not only will his 5.1 YPC be hard to repeat against an absolute meat-grinder of a schedule, but the fourth-year back will probably also be forced to share more work with Ajayi than he would like. While nothing in fantasy is inarguable, the likelihood the Bills (twice), Jets, Texans and Eagles will have good rush defenses this season is pretty high. There are five of the Dolphins’ first nine games. The schedule lightens up a bit after Week 10, but no so much that Miller’s owners should breathe a sigh of relief. For what it is worth, Miami’s running game could really excel during the fantasy playoffs.

As treacherous as things appear for Miller and Ajayi, the passing game appears to have it easy by comparison. The Bills (Weeks 3 and 9), Jets (Weeks 4 and 12) and Ravens (Week 13) figure to slow down a healthy Parker, assuming he is a quick study and can overcome missing the bulk of the preseason. Landry figures to do a lot of his work out of the slot again this year and shouldn’t ever have to face a top corner there – Philadelphia’s Brandon Boykin will be one of the better ones he sees in Week 10 – so owners hoping for another PPR-friendly season from the second-year wideout should be satisfied with his output, especially considering how often the running game could stall. Tannehill was reportedly throwing a good deep ball in offseason workouts, so keep that in mind in regards to Stills, who could easily outperform his current ADP (12th round) for owners if Parker struggles to stay on the field. Speaking of durability, Cameron could be incredible value if he can avoid yet another concussion. He could a difference-maker in fantasy starting in Week 11 if stays healthy. As his matchup schedule clearly shows, Tannehill may a bit hit-or-miss before the fantasy playoffs and a tough player to trust once the postseason begins. He has the supporting cast and talent to produce regardless, but a lot of the former depends on Parker and Cameron staying off the injury report.

 New England Patriots
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
PIT BUF JAC bye DAL IND NYJ MIA WAS NYG BUF DEN PHI HOU TEN NYJ
QB Tom Brady 38 0 0 0 0 0 SUS SUS SUS SUS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD 0 SUS SUS SUS SUS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
INT 0 SUS SUS SUS SUS
Ru Yards 0 SUS SUS SUS SUS
Ru TD 0 SUS SUS SUS SUS
QB Jimmy Garoppolo 23 20.7 20.7 82.8 82.8 1170 290 255 255 370
TD 7 1 1 2 3
INT 5 0 2 1 2
Ru Yards 40 10 15 10 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB LeGarrette Blount 28 13 12 39 36 225 SUS 60 85 80
Ru TD 2 SUS 0 2 0
Re Yards 15 SUS 5 0 10
Re TD 0 SUS 0 0 0
Rec 3 SUS 1 0 2
RB James White 23 7.9 4.6 31.5 18.5 80 30 15 15 20
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 105 25 15 35 30
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 13 3 3 4 3
RB Jonas Gray 25 6.3 6.3 25 25 130 75 10 30 15
Ru TD 2 2 0 0 0
Re Yards 0 0 0 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 0 0 0 0 0
WR Julian Edelman 29 16 9 64 36 300 75 75 50 100
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 28 6 7 5 10
WR Brandon LaFell 28 13.1 8.6 52.5 34.5 225 50 40 80 55
Re TD 2 0 0 1 1
Rec 18 4 3 6 5
WR Aaron Dobson 24 2.9 1.6 11.5 6.5 65 20 20 10 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 1 2 1 1
WR Danny Amendola 29 3.1 1.6 12.5 6.5 65 30 0 25 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 6 3 0 2 1
TE Rob Gronkowski 26 20.9 14.6 83.5 58.5 345 70 80 55 140
Re TD 4 1 0 1 2
Rec 25 6 6 5 8

Key changes
RB: Added Travaris Cadet in free agency, allowed Shane Vereen to sign with the New York Giants
TE: Added Scott Chandler in free agency, released Tim Wright

Matchup analysis: The NFL’s painstakingly slow approach to handing out discipline (or ruling on appeals) keeps us in the dark about Brady, so for the purposes of this article, we’ll assume the league will uphold his four-game suspension and the expected court battle that is likely to follow won’t see a judge hand down a decision until after the start of the season. That means Garoppolo will be at the controls of the offense through Week 5, which should incrementally drive down the price of just about every receiver in New England. It’s not that the second-year Eastern Illinois alum can’t serve as an adequate fill-in for Brady, but doesn’t it seem like a good approach for the Patriots to go run-heavy in at least three of those four games? Owners may want to get their fill of Blount in the first half of the season, however, because very little figures to come easy on the ground after Week 6. That could mean that the winner of camp competition between White and Cadet could become a PPR dynamo, although predicting the week-to-week whims of Bill Belichick & Co. is a game owners will lose more often than they will win.

While Gronkowski gets favorable treatment here in part because he has established himself as such an unstoppable force in the league, I would have assigned plenty of green to a player like Chandler too. In case you were curious, Gronkowski’s most difficult stretch should be during Weeks 11-14. Buffalo (first), Houston (second) and Philadelphia (third) were the three most difficult defenses for opposing tight ends to score against in fantasy last year. Although Brady’s likely absence should reduce the effectiveness of the majority of New England’s passing attack, Edelman figures to run the same high-percentage routes for Garoppolo. Even with the benefit of doubt I gave Gronkowski on multiple matchups, the former Kent State quarterback should have it even easier than the All-Pro tight end. Because he does so much of his damage out of the slot, the stiffest competition Edelman figures to face is potentially the Jets’ Buster Skrine in Weeks 7 and 16 as well as Boykin in Week 13. The schedule is much less favorable for LaFell and/or Dobson, assuming the latter doesn’t have a strong camp and end up splitting time with the former. LaFell’s emergence in 2014 was definitely a byproduct of playing with Brady. It’s not fair to say that matchups don’t matter against the greats of the game like Brady, but the fact of the matter is they typically get their 300-plus yards and two-plus touchdowns in any game in which the situation calls for it. In other words, players like LaFell and Dobson may appear have a daunting schedule (and they do), but all the yellow and red boxes really represent in their cases are games in which they shouldn’t produce under “normal” circumstances.

 New York Jets
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CLE IND PHI MIA bye WAS NE OAK JAC BUF HOU MIA NYG TEN DAL NE
QB Geno Smith 24 19.8 19.8 79.3 79.3 995 255 300 215 225
TD 6 1 2 3 0
INT 4 1 2 0 1
Ru Yards 55 20 10 10 15
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 1
RB Chris Ivory 27 10.5 9.3 42 37 265 105 65 45 50
Ru TD 1 1 0 0 0
Re Yards 45 10 20 0 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 1 2 0 2
RB Bilal Powell 26 5.6 3.4 22.5 13.5 70 10 20 30 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 65 15 30 5 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 9 2 4 1 2
WR Brandon Marshall 31 17.1 11.9 68.5 47.5 295 75 50 90 80
Re TD 3 1 0 2 0
Rec 21 5 3 7 6
WR Eric Decker 28 12 7.5 48 30 240 60 85 40 55
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 18 4 6 3 5
WR Jeremy Kerley 26 4.3 2.3 17 9 90 15 35 10 30
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 2 3 1 2
WR Devin Smith 23 5 3.8 20 15 90 30 10 50 0
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 5 2 1 2 0
TE Jace Amaro 23 6.5 3.5 26 14 140 40 55 20 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 3 5 2 2

Key changes
HC: Replaced Rex Ryan with Todd Bowles
OC: Replaced Marty Mornhinweg with Chan Gailey
QB: Traded for Ryan Fitzpatrick, opted not to re-sign Michael Vick
RB: Traded for Zac Stacy and signed Stevan Ridley in free agency; opted not to re-sign Chris Johnson
WR: Traded for Marshall and drafted Devin Smith

Matchup analysis: The first thing the general fan thinks of when they hear or read the term “spread offense” is “pass-heavy”. It’s a common fallacy, although one can probably assume the 2015 Jets will throw a bit more than the 2014 edition, which ranked 27th in the league in attempts with 498. It’s also the right move after Mornhinweg foolishly tried to fit Geno Smith into his West Coast offense as opposed to incorporating more spread concepts (which is the offense Smith thrived in at West Virginia). And the good news for the New York skill position players is that if Smith cannot thrive in Gailey’s system early, the Jets made a move to bring in a quarterback that has already enjoyed a fair amount of success in his offense in Fitzpatrick. With a lack of top-level shadow corners on the schedule – Buffalo’s Stephon Gilmore and the New York Giants’ Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie are the only ones that appear likely to fill that role – Marshall and Decker’s schedules look remarkably similar, with a fair amount of advantageous second-half matchups. Obviously, the play at quarterback will ultimately determine whether or not the two wideouts can take advantage of it. Owners can expect Amaro to be used in the way he should have been used under Mornhinweg – in the slot and as a “move” tight end – but the schedule doesn’t appear to be overly favorable.

The nice thing about Gailey is that he has shown the ability to be flexible with his offenses and that includes relying on the running game when necessary as well as molding his offense to the unique talents of his personnel. (He was the play-caller in Buffalo when Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller – two completely different backs – enjoyed their finest fantasy seasons in back-to-back years.) Whether or not the Jets opted to bring in Ridley and Stacy to push Ivory or protect themselves against an injury, Ivory has never been trusted to be a true three-down back. That projects to be a big problem against a fairly difficult schedule and behind a line that graded poorly in run blocking (according to PFF) outside of C Nick Mangold a season ago. Powell appears to have a pretty good hold on the backup job and most of the passing-down work for now in this offense, meaning there is an outside chance he becomes the Jets’ most valuable fantasy back in PPR leagues. Of course, if Geno proves to be a revelation under Gailey, Ivory could easily end up really paying off for his owners. With better offensive personnel, the huge upgrade in play-calling and Ivory’s tackle-breaking ability, the ex-Saint could be in line for 8-10 touchdowns.


NFC East

 Dallas Cowboys
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
NYG PHI ATL NO NE bye NYG SEA PHI TB MIA CAR WAS GB NYJ BUF
QB Tony Romo 35 22.7 22.7 90.9 90.9 1160 315 265 270 310
TD 8 3 2 2 1
INT 2 0 1 0 1
Ru Yards 5 0 5 0 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Joseph Randle 23 13.6 11.9 54.5 47.5 305 80 65 120 40
Ru TD 2 1 0 1 0
Re Yards 50 20 5 15 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 2 1 3 1
RB Darren McFadden 28 8.1 7.4 32.5 29.5 155 45 20 25 65
Ru TD 2 1 0 0 1
Re Yards 20 5 0 0 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 1 0 0 2
RB Lance Dunbar 25 6.5 3.8 26 15 25 5 0 10 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 125 25 10 35 55
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 11 2 1 3 5
WR Dez Bryant 26 21.5 15.3 86 61 370 90 120 75 85
Re TD 4 1 2 1 0
Rec 25 6 8 5 6
WR Terrance Williams 25 11.3 8.3 45 33 210 70 45 60 35
Re TD 2 1 0 1 0
Rec 12 4 3 3 2
WR Cole Beasley 26 6.9 3.6 27.5 14.5 145 35 50 20 40
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 13 3 5 2 3
TE Jason Witten 33 10.8 6.3 43 25 190 50 35 45 60
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 18 5 3 4 6
TE Gavin Escobar 24 4 2.8 16 11 50 20 0 20 10
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 5 2 0 2 1

Key changes
Offense: Allowed OC/OL coach Bill Callahan to sign with Washington
RB: Added McFadden in free agency, allowed Murray to sign with Philadelphia

Matchup analysis: The Cowboys believe their rushing attack will be just fine without Murray. For the first month of the season, they could very well be right. After that, all bets are off. And for those forward-thinking owners, the time to sell your stock in the Dallas running game might be after Week 10. With Murray still on the team, the league’s best offensive line would have been a solid bet to win the majority of the six yellow matchups on the schedule. I’m not sure that will be the case with Randle, who has posted 11-17-1, 19-65-0, 14-26-0 and 13-37-0 lines in the four games in which he has received at least 10 carries. (It is worth noting the first three of those contests came in 2013.) This assumes, of course, that he wins a camp competition with McFadden, who is either done or right in the mix to share carries with Randle – depending on who you listen to. The Cowboys’ all-world front five will make whichever back it blocks for look better than he is and that should come as some comfort to the owners that are comfortable in selecting them. Even if one of the two have assumed lead-back duties by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around, it would take a lot of backbone to start him against the Jets and/or Bills in Weeks 15 and 16. Owners hoping to get a preview of those potential fantasy postseason performances may want to check out the Week 8 showdown with Seattle, which will almost certainly be the best run defense Dallas will face during the first 13 games of the season.

Bryant had to exercise a bit of patience to get his five-year deal done last week. Patience isn’t something his owners should need, however, as the reigning league leader in touchdown receptions has a number of winnable matchups before the bye. As is usually the case with a dominant talent like Bryant, only a lack of volume figures to keep him in check against most opponents. It will be fascinating to watch him square off against Revis in Week 15 – one of three likely shadow corners he will face (the Giants’ Rodgers-Cromartie and Bills’ Gilmore are the others) – but only Revis is good enough to give Bryant’s owners some pause. Romo spoke glowingly about Williams during offseason workouts and it wouldn’t be all that surprising if he begins to show that he is something more than an inconsistent deep threat in his third year in the league. However, his schedule isn’t all that conducive to a breakout and it seems unlikely he’ll be a regular target with Bryant and Witten still around. Witten figures to benefit more than any other Cowboy from whatever falloff the running game suffers post-Murray, although half of the teams on the back half of Dallas’ schedule either kept what that had or upgraded their back seven. Romo’s connection with Witten has been built over the course of many years, however, so another 60-70 catch season is probably in the works. There’s almost no chance Romo remains as efficient as he was last season, but more volume should help balance it out for fantasy purposes. He’s going to be a risky play in the fantasy postseason, though, with cold-weather games in Green Bay and Buffalo sandwiching a home date with the Jets.

 New York Giants
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
DAL ATL WAS BUF SF PHI DAL NO TB NE bye WAS NYJ MIA CAR MIN
QB Eli Manning 34 21.4 21.4 85.4 85.4 1260 345 275 350 290
TD 7 3 1 3 0
INT 4 1 0 0 3
Ru Yards 10 5 0 0 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Rashad Jennings 30 12.6 10.6 50.5 42.5 255 65 90 60 40
Ru TD 2 1 1 0 0
Re Yards 50 25 10 0 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 3 2 0 3
RB Shane Vereen 26 12.5 8.5 50 34 75 15 25 25 10
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 1
Re Yards 145 55 30 20 40
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 16 5 4 2 5
RB Andre Williams 23 3.5 3.3 14 13 65 15 25 10 15
Ru TD 1 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 5 0 0 0 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 1 0 0 0 1
WR Odell Beckham Jr. 22 21.4 14.1 85.5 56.5 445 125 110 140 70
Re TD 2 1 1 0 0
Rec 29 8 6 8 7
WR Rueben Randle 24 14.5 9.8 58 39 270 75 55 100 40
Re TD 2 1 0 1 0
Rec 19 5 5 6 3
WR Victor Cruz 28 6.6 3.6 26.5 14.5 145 25 45 30 45
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 2 3 3 4
TE Larry Donnell 26 10.4 6.9 41.5 27.5 155 20 25 60 50
Re TD 2 0 0 2 0
Rec 14 2 2 5 5

Key changes
RB: Added Vereen in free agency

Matchup analysis: To all those readers that believe the streak of green next to Beckham’s name is a tribute to his greatness, congratulations; you are partially correct. The fact of the matter, however, is that eight of the Giants’ first nine opponents don’t really have any player capable of sticking with a younger and slightly bigger version of Antonio Brown. I could have easily handed him another green against New England in Week 10, but Pats HC Bill Belichick has built his reputation on eliminating the opponent’s top weapon. All in all, injury is about the only thing that should keep Beckham from enjoying an incredible encore to an amazing rookie season. I’m not buying into Cruz’s ability to be anything resembling the player he was prior to his torn patellar tendon – an injury that is certain to rob him of some of the quickness that made him so difficult to defend in the open field. Even if you do buy into a complete Cruz comeback, it is important to know he’s going to play second-fiddle to Beckham going forward. Much like Cruz, Randle has the kind of schedule that could allow a WR4 type to play at a WR3 level. The fourth-year pro seems to be getting “it” and caught the eye of Manning with his commitment and preparation this offseason. I expect to be buying his stock in the double-digit rounds a few times next month. Donnell’s star faded after Week 4 – the last game Beckham missed due to his early-season hamstring woes. He’s not going to completely fade out of the picture, but his awful run-blocking and average athleticism figures to make him replaceable, especially considering Cruz is back and Vereen is in the picture. While trying to take nothing away from Manning’s 2014 season, his strong second half was partly the product of a long streak of average to below-average pass defenses he faced after Week 11 (Jacksonville, Tennessee, Washington and Philadelphia all ranked in the top half of the league in terms of most fantasy points allowed to fantasy quarterbacks). It is fair to wonder – as it is for all the members of the Giants’ passing attack – if Manning will be able to carry the momentum he should enjoy over the first 12 weeks in 2015 into the final four of the fantasy season. Even with a healthy Beckham, I’m not sure I want to put my faith in Eli carrying my teams through the fantasy playoffs this year, especially behind what projects to be a poor offensive line.

One of the reasons why the Giants signed Vereen was because they failed to get a receiving touchdown or a catch that gained more than 27 yards from a running back last season (Vereen had three of each with the Patriots last year). That’s a nugget to keep in mind when looking over the Giants’ schedule, which will be relying on a 30-year-old back (Jennings) that has never made it through a full season and a young back that averaged 3.3 YPC on 217 carries in his rookie season (Williams) that is a non-factor in the passing game. New York lost projected starting LT Will Beatty for the season in the spring and will be using first-round pick Ereck Flowers to replace him, all the while hoping to utilize more no-huddle. In order to do that, the running back is going to need to be able to get open quick and pass-block – two areas Vereen in which can hold his own. Perhaps that is just a long-winded way of saying that his catches in the flat and over the middle will have to be an extension of the running game; Beatty was the only regular Giant lineman last year to grade out positively in run-blocking (and the only one that came remotely close to doing so). In short, Jennings may see enough volume in the games he is healthy to serve as a quality fantasy RB3/spot starter, but a repeat of his fantastic three-week start to last season appears highly unlikely.

 Philadelphia Eagles
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
ATL DAL NYJ WAS NO NYG CAR bye DAL MIA TB DET NE BUF ARI WAS
QB Sam Bradford 27 17.8 17.8 71.1 71.1 1065 305 210 265 285
TD 6 2 1 1 2
INT 4 1 0 2 1
Ru Yards 5 0 5 0 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB DeMarco Murray 27 16.8 14.8 67 59 340 90 115 55 80
Ru TD 3 1 2 0 0
Re Yards 70 25 5 0 40
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 3 1 0 4
RB Ryan Mathews 27 8.6 7.6 34.5 30.5 160 55 30 35 40
Ru TD 2 1 0 0 1
Re Yards 25 10 0 10 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 1 0 2 1
RB Darren Sproles 32 7.6 4.9 30.5 19.5 30 5 10 10 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 105 35 15 55 0
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 11 3 2 6 0
WR Jordan Matthews 23 14.5 9.3 58 37 250 70 40 55 85
Re TD 2 1 0 0 1
Rec 21 6 4 4 7
WR Nelson Agholor 22 11.8 7.5 47 30 240 60 90 25 65
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 17 5 6 2 4
WR Riley Cooper 27 5 3.3 20 13 70 20 20 0 30
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 7 2 2 0 3
TE Zach Ertz 24 12 7.3 48 29 230 65 40 75 50
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 19 5 3 6 5
TE Brent Celek 30 3.1 1.6 12.5 6.5 65 20 0 35 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 6 2 0 3 1

Key changes
QB: Traded Nick Foles to St. Louis for Bradford
RB: Signed Murray and Mathews in free agency; traded LeSean McCoy to Buffalo
WR: Drafted Agholor; allowed Jeremy Maclin to sign with Kansas City

Matchup analysis: There is no doubt that it is difficult to get a read on the Eagles in large part because so many of the key cogs from last year’s team are gone. That includes PFF’s second-rated guard last season in Evan Mathis, who was released after he held out of OTAs in search of a new contract and not included in “Key changes” above. Guards are usually key to anchoring a ground game – especially running inside – so it will be interesting to see if new LG Allen Barbre can approach Mathis’ standard of play. RG Todd Herremans was a cap casualty in the spring, which means HC Chip Kelly’s desire to see Murray and Mathews executing his one-cut running scheme without consistent traffic in the backfield may be unfulfilled. There isn’t even a great deal of clarity in terms of the projected backfield distribution between Murray and Mathews, other than the Eagles plan to “divide” carries between the two. (There’s also the issue of keeping the two injury-prone backs healthy as well.) At any rate, the schedule for the running game is a manageable one for Philadelphia, with only the Jets (Week 3) and Bills (Week 14) likely to shut Kelly’s running game down. The amount of yellow for a team that underwent as much transition as the Eagles did this offseason is concerning, but the volume that usually comes as a result of an up-tempo attack should minimize that somewhat. There’s nothing to suggest that Murray can’t be a low-end fantasy RB1 (assuming 250-plus carries) and Mathews a reasonable flex (assuming 130 or so carries), but the slate is not so favorable so as to expect either player to perform at a much higher level either.

For the sake of maintaining some degree of sanity, we’ll assume that Bradford can play the majority of the season. If that happens, the same matchups that should scare Murray and Mathews’ owners the most (Jets and Bills) are the ones that should concern Bradford’s. Outside of those two difficult opponents, any schedule that features four greens and five more neutral matchups in a Kelly offense should be cause for a small celebration. My belief remains unchanged that owners that really want to push the envelope on waiting at quarterback in their drafts are likely to find a low-end QB1 in Bradford if he stays healthy or Sanchez if he doesn’t. Matthews is expected to maintain his rookie-year role as a mismatch weapon in the slot and see more time on the outside as well. It’s the former role that allows him to have a chart with no red on it, although slot corners such as Dallas’ Orlando Scandrick, the Jets’ Skrine and the Cardinals’ Tyrann Mathieu could give him fits from time to time. Agholor doesn’t appear to be a great bet for huge rookie-year production based on the lack of green next to his name, but his ability to work all over the field and the Eagles’ ability to execute plays quickly in order to hinder the defense’s ability to adjust and substitute definitely works in his favor. The USC product is expected to fill the void left behind by Maclin, although his ceiling (playing time- and fantasy production-wise) should be about two-thirds of what his predecessor’s was. Celek will remain a bit of a drain on Ertz’s ability to perform like a fantasy TE1, but the personnel losses the Eagles suffered this offseason (combined with his offseason work in areas such as run-blocking) should be enough for him to start living up to the hype in 2015. Assuming he sees about a 20-percent increase in snaps (50.2 percent in 2014) this year, the schedule sets up nicely for him to become a 70-plus catch player this season.

 Washington Redskins
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
MIA STL NYG PHI ATL NYJ TB bye NE NO CAR NYG DAL CHI BUF PHI
QB Robert Griffin III 25 17 17 68 68 1050 230 205 330 285
TD 4 1 1 1 1
INT 3 1 0 0 2
Ru Yards 80 15 35 20 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Alfred Morris 26 11.6 10.9 46.5 43.5 290 65 85 55 85
Ru TD 2 0 1 1 0
Re Yards 25 0 0 15 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 0 0 2 1
RB Matt Jones 22 9.5 6.5 38 26 95 20 15 40 20
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 1
Re Yards 105 30 10 25 40
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 4 1 3 4
WR Pierre Garcon 29 14.1 8.6 56.5 34.5 285 40 75 100 70
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 22 4 6 7 5
WR DeSean Jackson 28 13.4 9.9 53.5 39.5 275 80 55 35 105
Re TD 2 1 0 0 1
Rec 14 5 3 2 4
WR Andre Roberts 27 4.6 2.4 18.5 9.5 95 25 10 40 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 9 2 1 4 2
TE Jordan Reed 25 6.4 3.4 25.5 13.5 135 30 25 55 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 3 2 5 2
TE Niles Paul 26 6 3.8 24 15 90 15 20 40 15
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 9 2 2 4 1

Key changes
Offense: Added OL coach Bill Callahan
RB: Drafted Jones, allowed Roy Helu to sign with Oakland

Matchup analysis: Second-year HC Jay Gruden brought in Callahan in large part because he wanted the highly-respected offensive line coach to help him install a more physical ground game, so that is where we will start as well. Morris is expected to remain the lead back in terms of early-down work and should be a much more consistent part of the game plan this year after it appeared Gruden forgot about him at times throughout the first half of last season. His limitations as a receiver and Washington’s likely sub-par defense (which should be improved simply by letting go of former DC Jim Haslett) will keep him from becoming a fantasy RB1, whereas Jones is the heavy favorite to take over Helu’s old job on passing downs and projects to steal a few more carries from Morris each game than Helu did. Morris’ limitations mean his four red matchups will probably result in some pretty meager totals in those weeks, so it will be up to Gruden and what is hopefully an improved offensive line to make sure his other 11 fantasy games are respectable. Unfortunately, two of those red games come right at the end of the fantasy season, which means I would advise against counting on him as anything more than a low-end RB2 in 2015.

One of the reasons the Redskins have opted to lean a bit more on the ground game is because Gruden now realizes Griffin still has much to learn in order to be a more complete pro quarterback. A more run-heavy attack would, in theory, accentuate RG3’s own running ability and give him a half-second more to throw the ball as well. Much like the rest of his NFC East brethren, Griffin has a middle-of-the-road schedule that doesn’t feature too many poor matchups, making it possible that he’s a respectable fantasy QB2. Considering neither Garcon nor Jackson topped 70 catches last year, it seems a bit frightening to think what might happen if the team is successful in becoming a more balanced offense. With that said, both players should match or exceed their 2014 totals because it seems unlikely Gruden will want to go through another year of musical chairs at quarterback. It should also help matters the defense should be a bit improved, allowing the offense to work under more favorable conditions. Owners eyeing Garcon or Jackson as WR3 candidates don’t appear to have much to worry about schedule-wise, at least outside of whether Griffin improves at his craft. The schedule looks treacherous for the tight ends, however, which probably means the injury-prone Reed is borderline undraftable – and that assumes he holds on to his job. Paul is probably a better fit for the new Redskins’ offensive vision anyway. Either way, one of the two would have to convince Gruden to go in another direction offensively to be relevant in fantasy this year since Washington plans on using more two-tight sets. While more playing time is a good thing, it probably means both players will end up sabotaging the other in fantasy.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.