I get a good laugh out of the usual chatter around this time of year, primarily because it never seems to change. Fans spend most of the summer clamoring for the preseason to start and, about one week after it begins, the usual “preseason doesn’t matter” refrain takes over. I am probably in the minority of people that believes the NFL has no business shortening the preseason, in large part because most teams aren’t ready to play Week 1 anyway (a topic I’ve discussed in this space before, I might add).

At any rate, I enjoy the month-long preseason because it usually gives me enough time to watch just about every meaningful fantasy player for the upcoming season multiple times. Due to the sheer amount of time it takes to consume the first three full weeks of the preseason, however, I’m not always able to watch the entire third week before my final Big Boards are released. Yet another benefit of a simplified PMA process this year is the fact that I should be able to pull that feat off this year, hopefully saving me from my biggest regrets of last season.

What do I mean? For example, I read the reports just like everyone else that Le’Veon Bell had trimmed down prior to training camp last year. Even though I saw the Steelers’ first two preseason games, he had limited opportunity to show off his new and improved form in those contests. Of course, Bell and then-teammate LeGarrette Blount were arrested the day before the third preseason game, which initially cast doubt on whether or not he might be available for the entire 2014 season. Nevertheless, Bell’s sleek new look was obvious on a few of his runs in that dress rehearsal. The problem? I wasn’t able to study that game until after the final Big Board. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not going to try to convince anyone now I was going to forecast 2,000-plus total yards then. What was obvious was that he was no longer the same back that averaged 3.5 YPC as a rookie and more like a late first-round talent.

Obviously, the proof is in the pudding in regards to correcting the shortcomings of yesteryear. The goal this year is to deliver the kind of pudding that will make you ask: “Why didn’t somebody think of this before?”

Two weeks ago, I gave you my initial first-quarter projections for the AFC and NFC East. Last week, I provided a look inside the AFC and NFC North. This week, we’ll dive inside the AFC and NFC South.

Below you will see my initial first-quarter projections for each of the eight total teams in the AFC and NFC East. I have color-coded the matchups for the full season, however, because I still think it is essential for owners to know what they are signing up for in the second half of the season (and especially the fantasy playoffs) when they select a certain player. The stat projections and schedule analysis will still factor into the overall ranking of a player on my Big Boards, but will be one of about six or seven position-specific attributes that will be weighted, graded and scored. Those attributes, their explanations and the overall grades will make their first appearance on the Big Boards in mid-August.

Here’s a quick refresher of what each of the colors mean in each team’s projection chart below:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this is a neutral matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for the defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

For an example as to the amount of possibilities and factors I consider, take a look below at the Indianapolis Colts’ projections. Andre Johnson does not have a single “red” on his schedule because: 1) players like the New York Jets’ Darrelle Revis and Miami Dolphins’ Brent Grimes rarely move into the slot when a player like Johnson slides inside and 2) although I am high on corners like the Jets’ Buster Skrine to defend him, I don’t expect Skrine to shut him down. Furthermore, slot work figures to only be part of what Johnson does, so he’ll probably see Revis and Antonio Cromartie line up across from him anyway at certain points. That is why he gets a yellow and not a red or a white. In other cases (which I will discuss as we move along with these projections), players like Grimes play on only one side of the ball while virtually every receiver will see time on the left and right side of the formation. In still other cases, the quality of the quarterback (Houston, for example) can take a potential green matchup for a receiver and turn into a neutral one. As you can tell, a lot of thought goes into the color-coding system.

Other important notes:

- The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of the season. Black boxes represent bye weeks. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2015.

- These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. In other words, don’t be alarmed if the projections on the Big Boards are different from the ones you see here.

Key to the table below:

PPR Aver - Points per game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
NPPR Aver - Points per game in non-PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non-PPR - Total points scored in non-PPR.

AFC South

Matchup analysis: Foster’s August 3rd groin injury will require surgery and probably result in him being placed either on the regular-season PUP list (costing him at least the first six games of the season) or most likely injured reserve – designated to return (costing him at least the first eight games). It is a shame too, since I identified 10 green matchups for one of the game’s few remaining three-down backs. Moving on, let’s say for simplicity’s sake that Foster can return after the Week 9 bye. If that were to happen, Blue and Polk (maybe even Jonathan Grimes) would almost certainly split the backfield work, with the former handling most of the running chores at first. Will it stay that way? I have my doubts. While Polk cannot be expected to be the answer to the Texans’ prayers, he is a capable receiver and more explosive than Blue for a team that needs its running game to carry the offense. (Let’s not forget he stole some goal-line work from LeSean McCoy last year in Philadelphia, so it isn’t as if he can’t run inside too.) Since it is quite likely that Houston will seek outside help to address Foster’s absence, I won’t go into much detail about the schedule at the moment. If the Texans choose to stay with what they have, I’d classify Blue as a low-end RB3/flex option and Polk as a RB4. If efficiency and productivity mean anything to HC Bill O’Brien, however, I could easily see Polk leading the committee by October.

As the unquestioned new leader of the passing game, Hopkins should trump last year’s breakout campaign rather easily. He should get off to a strong start and, outside of one rough four-week stretch following the bye, have ample opportunity to provide low-end fantasy WR1 numbers for his owners. The Jets (Week 11) and Bills (Week 13) are really the only teams that should give his owners any pause. The rest of the members of the passing game are going to be fighting for scraps on what figures to be one of the more run-heavy teams in the league again this year – even after Foster’s injury. Unlike 2014, Houston has some depth at receiver. The problem is that, outside of volume, rotating three receivers opposite Hopkins is a no-win situation for each player in fantasy. Washington will most likely be the low-upside field stretcher, Shorts will almost certainly be no better than third in line for targets even if he does get the Week 1 start and works out of the slot as expected. Strong may be the most talented of the bunch, but is likely too raw as a route-runner to move past the two aforementioned veterans and dominate snaps opposite Hopkins in 2015. Only Atlanta’s tight ends were less productive last year in fantasy than Houston’s, which pretty much makes a discussion about any Texan at that position moot. Hoyer (or Ryan Mallett, for that matter) can probably be considered a slight upgrade on Fitzpatrick and has the advantage of knowing HC Bill O’Brien’s system from their days together in New England. It is conceivable that Hoyer (or Mallett) could be useful in fantasy on occasion this season, but it is more likely Houston will hide the quarterback and try to win with defense as often as possible.

Matchup analysis: Lost in the “transformation” of Pep Hamilton from a run-oriented rookie play-caller in 2013 to a Luck-centric offensive coordinator one year later was the hiring of associate head coach Rob Chudzinski, who probably hasn’t been given enough credit for encouraging Hamilton to place the offense’s fate in the hands of the best young quarterback in the league. The 2014 version of Luck and the Colts’ offense and Luck is almost certainly going to be the same one we see in 2015, but with better and faster receivers. Any owner looking for a potential slight discount for any player on this offense would be advised to strike after Week 2, since the best two defenses the team will face all year will be in those contests. Luck is capable of going off for 300-plus yards and two-plus touchdowns against any opponent, so a red or yellow matchup is more of a warning that he may only throw for 250 yards OR two touchdowns in many cases. While the first half of the season appears challenging at the start, the fourth-year quarterback could easily carry fantasy teams on his back after the bye. Johnson may have lost a step in his final years of Houston, but here’s some food for thought: if that lost step was so pronounced, how did he manage 85 catches while hauling in passes from four below-average quarterbacks in Houston last year? Indianapolis wants to use Johnson as often as possible in the slot, where he will be an absolute mismatch for virtually every opponent after Week 2. Hilton will see much more quality coverage than Johnson will, but he should be locked in as a mid- to low-end fantasy WR1 after Week 2 as well. The Colts hit the motherlode in terms of the schedule this year; no division opponent (outside of Houston) should have a prayer of slowing down the passing game and Indianapolis faces the defensively-challenged NFC South to boot. The Colts also appear more likely to use more three-wide, one-tight formations, likely meaning Fleener will see his role reduced considerably if the more well-rounded Allen can stay healthy this year. The matchups aren’t particularly favorable for either player, but Allen has established a solid red-zone rapport with Luck, meaning Allen’s fantasy fortunes will depend on how often the Colts find themselves in third-and-goal from the 5 much more than just about anything else.

Regarding Gore, the good news first: he will go from seeing the most eight-man boxes in the league last year to probably seeing the fewest and should have plenty of opportunities to convert red-zone chances into touchdowns simply because the Colts should be there so often. The bad? How smart is it for Indianapolis to count on a 32-year-old to be a feature back? Due in part to the schedule and in part due to a below-average offensive line, the window of opportunity to buy low on Gore is much longer than any of his passing-game counterparts. I can imagine the Gore situation playing out in any number of ways, including as a player who consistently runs for about 50-60 yards but scores a ton of goal-line touchdowns. Given his status as one of the best backs in the game in terms of picking up the blitz, it is fair to wonder if he’ll get to show off the hands he displayed in his early days with San Francisco and end up with 40-plus catches. Or will the Colts give a number of those chances to Herron instead? (I’d bet on the former, but be willing to consider the latter.) All other things being equal, Gore’s rushing averages should be much better after the bye than before it, particularly since three of the Colts’ first five opponents project to be very stingy against the run. Ultimately, I can see Indianapolis preserving Gore as much as possible, using him slightly more as a runner and slightly less as a receiver than it did Ahmad Bradshaw last year before his season-ending leg injury.

Bortles has plenty of upside, but has just as many obstacles this season (namely the schedule and his team’s run-first offensive approach) in order to become even a low-end fantasy QB2, so I will focus my attention on his receivers and tight ends instead. Thomas is a bit of a polarizing figure in fantasy circles given the fact he proved to be so unstoppable in the red zone during his career in Denver. On the flip side, the former Portland State basketball player has yet to play a full NFL season and goes from one of the best quarterbacks of all-time in Peyton Manning to one of the most unproven in the game today. As his schedule grid suggests, it is going to be difficult for Thomas to be a low-end fantasy TE1 even 50 percent of the time in 2015. Part of that is due to the likelihood that Bortles will probably only be able to make one member of his passing attack worthy of weekly starting consideration. I expect that player to be Robinson, who was on an 86-catch pace last year if you remove the two games in which he was not a starter at the beginning of the season. Whether or not he can maintain that pace while sharing targets with Thomas is another story, but it should lead to less defensive attention (and thus, more targets) in the red zone. I believe Robinson is a capable fantasy WR2 as early as this year, but he’s going to need some major improvement from Bortles in order to get there against a schedule that is pretty unforgiving three weeks before and three weeks after the team’s Week 8 bye.

Matchup analysis: The Titans are convinced that Mariota is their answer at quarterback (or at least as convinced as any team can be convinced about anything before preseason games have kicked off). Whether or not HC Ken Whisenhunt and OC Jason Michael have the creativity to maximize his talent is another question entirely. Mariota also lacks late-season appeal in redraft leagues (even if he ends up becoming a quick study) since I fear for any rookie quarterback that is forced to go against the Jets’ secondary, a Bill Belichick-coached team and what should be a dominant Texans’ defense in succession to wrap up the fantasy season. The No. 2 overall pick does have a lot of natural athletic ability on his side, however, and should be able to be a serviceable fantasy QB2 in all but the most difficult matchup as a strong candidate to run for around 500 yards. There is enough chaos around the Tennessee receivers outside of Wright that it is probably is a waste of time to break down their schedule. Douglas is slated to start at the moment, in part because Green-Beckham injured himself early in the offseason and was already extremely raw. Hunter got himself into legal trouble recently and his status for the 2015 season could be in some doubt. Nicks has shown next to nothing over the last two-plus years. By default, Wright is the only that should merit consideration in fantasy and one would have to assume he’ll keep his slot duties even though that is probably Douglas’ best fit. His schedule isn’t overly challenging and actually mostly favorable in the first half, so perhaps there is some sell-high(ish) potential with him. Walker will probably be the most consistent fantasy option on the team again in 2015, but the combination of a rookie quarterback and a string of difficult defenses right after the bye will make trusting him for more than 8-10 games a bit risky.

The running game is a mess, in reality and in fantasy. About the only things we can safely assume is that McCluster will not be the feature back and Sankey will probably start Week 1. With so little clarity beyond that, it is entirely possible that Sankey, Cobb and Antonio Andrews all lead the team in rushing at some point early in the season. Whisenhunt stated shortly upon his hiring last year that he intended to bring the three-back system that worked so well for him in San Diego in 2013 to Tennessee, so maybe that is what ends up happening. The problem is the Titans really don’t have their Ryan Mathews or Danny Woodhead yet. If I didn’t have such little faith in Whisenhunt to do the right thing, I’d say it is possible for Sankey to create some support with a strong three-game stretch to open the season. After that, Tennessee running backs figure to be completely hit-or-miss and will probably be completely useless during the fantasy playoffs. If the Titans commit most of the running chores to one of their backs, there is low-end flex appeal to be had.


NFC South

Matchup analysis: Allow me to begin by saying I realize the first-quarter projections are high for the passing game, especially for a team with a play-caller known for running the ball successfully; I’m just not entirely sure the Falcons will have much success on the ground in their first four games. Thankfully, the aerial attack has enough firepower to keep the offense very competitive and a schedule that is far from intimidating for Ryan and Jones. To give you some sense of what Atlanta’s passing game faces in the first half, the Giants’ Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie ranked 36th in QB rating against (88.3) among cornerbacks that played at least 50 percent of his snaps last year. That is the best mark by any cornerback the Falcons will face before their bye. (Incidentally, Jones caught 11 passes for 105 yards against New York last season.) It is a bit of a downer that Atlanta will face Carolina in Weeks 14 and 16 – neither Ryan nor Jones fared well against the Panthers in two meetings last year – but not so much that Jones should be treated as anything less than the high-end WR1 for the first 13 weeks of the season. Ryan’s schedule makes it possible that he could post career-high passing numbers, although I tend to believe Shanahan will be able to achieve more balance than Koetter did in 2014. Thus, Ryan should probably be viewed as a low-end QB1 with upside. Even though he has fought through injuries over the past two seasons, it is a bit too early for folks to be slamming the door on White as an every-week starter in three-receiver leagues. He may not be able to maintain the 80-catch pace I have him on after four games, but 60-70 receptions should be easily doable against this schedule and considering the fact he hasn’t caught fewer than 63 passes since 2006. Hankerson is supposedly pushing White for a starting job, although I’ll believe that when I actually see it happen. Nevertheless, owners would be wise to assume “Hank”, who played under Shanahan in Washington, will be a more-viable third receiver than Douglas was for most of his Falcons’ career. There is some upside to be had at tight end, as Shanahan has had his share of fantasy-worthy players at that position whose games aren’t that dissimilar to Tamme’s (Jordan Reed, Fred Davis and Owen Daniels). That upside may be inconsistent, however, since Jones and White figure to be open fairly often.

There is fantasy RB2 potential in this backfield. The question is whether or not Freeman or Coleman will create enough separation from the other to allow it to happen. All of the most difficult matchups occur in the first four and last three weeks of the season, which indicates to me that Freeman and Coleman could be worthy bye-week fill-ins even if all they end up doing is sharing carries. Like Sankey in Tennessee, Freeman appears to have the early edge for a starting job in Week 1. Also like Sankey, there is a real chance the job won’t be his by midseason. Both Freeman and Coleman are getting drafted as potential RB3s due in large part to the fact this is a Shanahan offense, but I’d only feel comfortable with that if I had both of them on my team. Individually, I’d rather have them as RB4s and will probably position them as such on Big Board simply because I don’t think a clear winner will emerge out of this backfield before the bye. And even if one does, I’m not overly crazy about that player’s potential to carry owners to a title with two games against Carolina during the fantasy playoffs.