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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Top 200 Big Board, Non-PPR: Version 3.0
Preseason Matchup Analysis
8/27/13

PPR | Non-PPR | Ks & D/STs

A d v e r t i s e m e n t

In an effort to bring reader the most comprehensive fantasy draft-day tool, sometimes the words can get in the way.

For those of you familiar with my columns, feel free to move on down about 4-5 paragraphs and begin there. For those readers just learning about the wonderful world of Preseason Matchup Analysis, welcome to the program. (Where have you been?) Rather than provide my usual greeting this week, I have decided to give you the option of clicking on my previous Big Boards (1.0 and 2.0) to explain my thought process in greater detail or simply get started on the good stuff. Before we set the draft boards for the final time this summer, here is the essential information to start your quest toward fantasy glory:

Before I get to the boards, I would like to remind readers about a few key points about the Big Boards:

1) My method of evaluating fantasy players relies heavily on projected consistency and matchups, not overall fantasy point total projections. All too often, fantasy owners and even the so-called "experts" get hung up by the final numbers. Don't get me wrong, I want all my players to have 300+ points at the end of the season. But as the old saying goes, "It's not about the destination, it's about the journey"; if my RB1 gives me seven spectacular performances along with six duds during the regular season, there's a fairly decent chance I may end up 7-6. I don’t want that and neither should you.

2) I will push a player down my board if feel he is a health risk or if I simply don’t/can’t trust him. I will put more stock into this area in 2013 than I ever have. If you take the time to break down each position I provide below, you will notice that I don’t follow the point totals or averages to a tee. (Think of the average and value I provide for each player as a starting point for my rankings.) Outside of trust issues, I will push a player down my board – despite a higher average or overall point total – if I believe he will simply be less consistent throughout the season or if his playoff schedule appears treacherous.

3) Much like last season, I want to provide readers with a clear risk sign. If a player is a moderate risk – be it due to holdout, injury, off-field, etc. – you will see a next his name. If I feel a player is a severe risk, your will see a next to his name. While I feel like I have accounted for each player’s “risk” with their spot on the Big Board, you may be more or less inclined to deal with that risk than I am. This is just another way of helping you take a look at the board and quickly identifying which players stand a good chance to frustrate you at some point this season.

As I have done in recent years, I have taken the additional step on the final set of Big Boards to designate players to their “fantasy position”. Keep in mind that just because there may be 12 teams in your league, it doesn’t mean there are 12 players worthy of being designated as a QB1, RB1, WR1 or TE1. As much as anything, let these designations serve as a guide as to when one tier ends and another begins.

QB1/RB1/WR1/TE1 – A player I am comfortable starting every week, regardless of matchup.

1/2, 2/3, 3/4 (All positions) – A player that can occasionally post numbers with a player in the tier above him, but is usually either too inconsistent to be considered in that tier or has a poor track record of staying healthy.

QB2/TE2 – A bye-week or matchup-based quarterback or tight end.

RB2/WR2 – A back or receiver that can post RB1/WR1 numbers with high upside, but has an obvious flaw that makes him less consistent than a RB1 or WR1.

RB3/WR3 - Usually is an inconsistent “splash” player (DeSean Jackson is a perfect example at WR) that can win his fantasy team with a huge performance, but is best utilized when the matchup is right.

RB4/WR4 – Usually a steady, lower-upside option that can be spot-started and used as a bye-week fill-in. In some cases, he is a high-upside player blocked by two top-level players in front of him.

RB5/WR5 – Usually a “handcuff”, but a player who is on the roster generally to keep the ship from sinking due to injury.

RB6/WR6 – Extreme longshots due to any number of factors, but with enough talent to be viable at some point in fantasy.

Let’s revisit the color-coding system before we start:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers..

Key:
OVR – Overall Rank
PR – Position Rank
FPts – Fantasy points scored
FPts/ G – Fantasy points/game
Value - Read *** below

***In short, the value that you will see below is based on the VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) concept for a two-RB, three-WR league, which allows me to essentially compare apples and oranges. At QB and TE, the value reflects the standard deviation from the 12th player at the position – the last starting-caliber player at the position. At RB and WR, the standard deviation is based on the 24th and 36th player at the position, respectively. 7 One last note to mention regarding the values – numbers that are bolded reflect positive values while the italicized numbers are essentially negative. (For the more statistically-inclined, the former values are on the right side of the bell curve while the latter values are on the left side.)

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the Non-PPR format:

 Non-PPR Big Board - Top 200
OVR PR Pos Player Risk Tm Age Value FPts/G FPts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 1 RB1 Adrian Peterson MIN 28 4.96 18.7 242.5
2 2 RB1 Doug Martin TB 24 4.54 18.1 271.0
3 3 RB1 LeSean McCoy PHI 25 3.72 16.9 253.5
4 4 RB1 Jamaal Charles KC 26 3.72 16.9 253.5
5 5 RB1 Trent Richardson CLE 23 3.62 16.8 251.5
6 6 RB1 C.J. Spiller BUF 26 3.79 17.0 255.0
7 7 RB1 Alfred Morris WAS 24 3.32 16.3 245.0
8 8 RB1 Marshawn Lynch SEA 27 3.06 16.0 239.5
9 1 WR1 Calvin Johnson DET 27 4.24 14.9 223.0
10 9 RB1 Matt Forte CHI 27 3.25 16.2 243.5
11 10 RB1 Ray Rice BAL 26 2.44 15.1 226.5
12 1 TE1 Jimmy Graham NO 26 3.72 12.4 185.5
13 1 QB1 Aaron Rodgers GB 29 4.06 26.6 398.3
14 11 RB1/2 Arian Foster HOU 27 3.53 16.6 249.5
15 12 RB1/2 Steven Jackson ATL 30 2.80 15.6 234.0
16 2 WR1 Dez Bryant DAL 24 3.46 13.8 206.5
17 2 QB1 Drew Brees NO 34 3.97 26.4 396.5
18 3 QB1 Peyton Manning DEN 37 3.96 26.4 396.3
19 3 WR1 Demaryius Thomas DEN 25 3.21 13.4 201.0
20 4 WR1 Julio Jones ATL 24 3.09 13.2 198.5
21 13 RB1/2 Chris Johnson TEN 27 2.30 14.9 223.5
22 14 RB1/2 Maurice Jones-Drew JAC 28 1.27 13.4 201.5
23 5 WR1 Brandon Marshall CHI 29 3.04 13.2 197.5
24 15 RB2 Stevan Ridley NE 24 1.81 14.2 213.0
25 6 WR1 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 30 2.55 12.5 187.0
26 7 WR1 A.J. Green CIN 25 2.50 12.4 186.0
27 16 RB2 Frank Gore SF 30 0.44 12.3 184.0
28 8 WR1 Roddy White ATL 31 2.29 12.1 181.5
29 9 WR1 Andre Johnson HOU 32 2.22 12.0 180.0
30 10 WR1 Vincent Jackson TB 30 2.03 11.7 176.0
31 11 WR1 Victor Cruz NYG 26 1.56 11.1 166.0
32 17 RB2 DeMarco Murray DAL 25 1.58 13.9 166.5
33 18 RB2 Darren Sproles NO 30 0.18 11.9 178.5
34 4 QB1 Matt Ryan ATL 28 2.62 24.5 367.7
35 19 RB2 Eddie Lacy GB 22 0.88 12.9 167.5
36 20 RB2 Reggie Bush DET 28 0.83 12.8 179.5
37 5 QB1 Cam Newton CAR 24 1.85 23.4 351.4
38 12 WR1/2 Eric Decker DEN 26 1.65 11.2 168.0
39 13 WR1/2 Jordy Nelson GB 28 1.53 11.0 165.5
40 21 RB2 Lamar Miller MIA 22 0.10 11.5 172.5
41 14 WR1/2 Pierre Garcon WAS 27 1.45 10.9 142.0
42 22 RB2 David Wilson NYG 22 0.00 11.6 163.0
43 15 WR1/2 Steve Smith CAR 34 1.32 10.7 161.0
44 16 WR1/2 Marques Colston NO 30 0.87 10.1 151.5
45 6 QB1 Matthew Stafford DET 25 1.58 23.0 345.7
46 7 QB1 Tom Brady NE 36 1.34 22.7 340.6
47 8 QB1 Colin Kaepernick SF 25 1.03 22.3 334.0
48 17 WR2 Dwayne Bowe KC 28 1.30 10.7 160.5
49 9 QB1 Russell Wilson SEA 23 0.47 21.5 322.2
50 2 TE1 Tony Gonzalez ATL 37 1.65 9.4 141.5
51 3 TE1 Rob Gronkowski NE 24 1.09 8.6 95.0
52 23 RB3 Darren McFadden OAK 26 0.34 12.1 145.5
53 18 WR2 Mike Williams TB 26 1.06 10.4 155.5
54 19 WR2 Danny Amendola NE 27 1.33 10.8 129.0
55 20 WR2 Wes Welker DEN 32 1.04 10.3 155.0
56 10 QB1 Robert Griffin III WAS 23 1.40 22.8 319.1
57 24 RB3 Shane Vereen NE 24 0.19 11.9 143.0
58 21 WR2 Hakeem Nicks NYG 25 0.83 10.0 130.5
59 11 QB1 Andrew Luck IND 23 0.40 21.4 320.6
60 22 WR2/3 James Jones GB 29 0.73 9.9 148.5
61 23 WR2/3 Mike Wallace MIA 27 0.68 9.8 147.5
62 25 RB3 Andre Brown NYG 26 1.11 10.1 141.0
63 24 WR2/3 DeSean Jackson PHI 26 0.59 9.7 145.5
64 25 WR2/3 Randall Cobb GB 23 0.71 9.9 148.0
65 26 WR2/3 Reggie Wayne IND 34 0.31 9.3 139.5
66 12 QB1 Tony Romo DAL 33 0.00 20.8 312.2
67 26 RB3 Giovani Bernard CIN 21 1.87 9.0 135.0
68 27 WR2/3 Michael Floyd ARI 23 0.09 9.0 135.0
69 28 WR2/3 Antonio Brown PIT 26 0.21 9.2 137.5
70 27 RB3 Ahmad Bradshaw IND 27 0.54 10.9 130.5
71 29 WR2/3 Josh Gordon CLE 22 0.56 9.7 125.5
72 30 WR3 Steve Johnson BUF 27 0.47 9.5 143.0
73 28 RB3 Montee Ball DEN 22 1.00 10.2 153.5
74 29 RB3 Ben Tate HOU 25 2.30 8.4 117.5
75 31 WR3 T.Y. Hilton IND 23 0.02 8.8 132.5
76 32 WR3 Cecil Shorts JAC 25 0.33 9.3 140.0
77 4 TE1 Kyle Rudolph MIN 23 0.94 8.4 126.5
78 33 WR3 Torrey Smith BAL 24 0.09 9.0 135.0
79 34 WR3 Greg Jennings MIN 29 0.26 8.5 119.0
80 35 WR3 Chris Givens STL 23 0.02 8.9 133.5
81 5 TE1 Jason Witten DAL 31 0.68 8.1 121.0
82 6 TE1 Jordan Cameron CLE 25 0.87 8.3 125.0
83 30 RB3 Ryan Mathews SD 25 2.10 8.7 121.5
84 36 WR3 Anquan Boldin SF 32 0.00 8.9 133.0
85 37 WR3 Golden Tate SEA 25 0.26 8.5 127.5
86 7 TE1 Vernon Davis SF 29 0.90 8.4 125.5
87 8 TE1 Jermichael Finley GB 26 0.61 8.0 103.5
88 31 RB3 Daryl Richardson STL 23 2.36 8.3 124.5
89 38 WR3 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 21 0.45 8.2 123.5
90 32 RB3 Chris Ivory NYJ 25 1.76 9.2 119.0
91 9 TE1 Jared Cook STL 26 0.85 8.3 124.5
92 10 TE1/2 Antonio Gates SD 33 0.77 8.2 106.5
93 33 RB4 DeAngelo Williams CAR 30 2.67 7.9 118.0
94 34 RB4 Pierre Thomas NO 28 2.51 8.1 121.5
95 39 WR4 Kenny Britt TEN 24 0.07 8.8 131.5
96 40 WR4 Justin Blackmon JAC 23 0.36 8.4 92.0
97 35 RB4 Mark Ingram NO 23 2.34 8.3 125.0
98 41 WR4 Tavon Austin STL 22 0.54 8.1 121.5
99 42 WR4 Kenbrell Thompkins NE 26 1.44 6.8 102.5
100 43 WR4 Emmanuel Sanders PIT 26 0.67 7.9 103.0
101 44 WR4 Alshon Jeffery CHI 23 0.82 7.7 115.5
102 13 QB1/2 Andy Dalton CIN 25 0.22 20.5 307.5
103 14 QB1/2 Michael Vick PHI 33 0.99 19.4 233.0
104 11 TE1/2 Greg Olsen CAR 28 0.00 7.1 106.5
105 36 RB4 BenJarvus Green-Ellis CIN 28 3.14 7.2 108.0
106 37 RB4 Rashard Mendenhall ARI 26 1.99 8.8 132.5
107 15 QB2 Josh Freeman TB 25 0.59 20.0 299.7
108 16 QB2 Sam Bradford STL 25 0.63 19.9 298.9
109 17 QB2 Jay Cutler CHI 30 0.79 19.7 295.4
110 45 WR4 Rueben Randle NYG 22 2.26 5.7 85.0
111 38 RB4 Vick Ballard IND 23 2.62 7.9 119.0
112 39 RB4 Danny Woodhead SD 28 2.81 7.7 115.0
113 46 WR4 Miles Austin DAL 29 0.87 7.6 107.0
114 47 WR4 Vincent Brown SD 24 1.97 6.1 79.0
115 48 WR4 Kendall Wright TEN 23 1.06 7.4 110.5
116 18 QB2 Carson Palmer ARI 33 1.75 18.3 275.0
117 49 WR4 Ryan Broyles DET 25 0.85 7.7 92.0
118 50 WR4 Percy Harvin SEA 25 1.15 10.5 42.0
119 40 RB4 Le’Veon Bell PIT 21 0.36 12.2 121.5
120 41 RB4 Bernard Pierce BAL 23 3.45 6.8 101.5
121 42 RB4 Bryce Brown PHI 22 3.26 7.0 105.5
122 12 TE1/2 Owen Daniels HOU 30 0.24 6.8 101.5
123 19 QB2 Eli Manning NYG 32 1.23 19.1 286.1
124 43 RB4 Jonathan Stewart CAR 26 3.11 7.3 87.0
125 51 WR5 Mohamed Sanu CIN 24 2.38 5.5 82.5
126 44 RB4 Lance Dunbar DAL 23 4.06 5.9 88.5
127 45 RB4 Shonn Greene TEN 28 4.34 5.5 82.5
128 46 RB4 Joique Bell DET 27 4.65 5.1 76.0
129 47 RB4 Ronnie Hillman DEN 21 6.08 3.0 39.5
130 52 WR5 Sidney Rice SEA 27 1.51 6.7 101.0
131 53 WR5 Lance Moore NO 30 1.60 6.6 99.0
132 54 WR5 Greg Little CLE 24 1.75 6.4 89.5
133 55 WR5 Brian Hartline MIA 26 1.72 6.4 96.5
134 48 RB4 Isaiah Pead STL 23 3.61 6.5 91.5
135 56 WR5 Cordarrelle Patterson MIN 22 2.62 5.2 77.5
136 20 QB2 Matt Schaub HOU 32 1.36 18.9 283.4
137 13 TE1/2 Martellus Bennett CHI 26 0.71 6.1 91.5
138 49 RB4 Christine Michael SEA 22 5.03 4.5 68.0
139 14 TE2 Julius Thomas DEN 25 0.04 7.0 91.5
140 57 WR5 Darrius Heyward-Bey IND 26 2.61 5.2 72.5
141 50 RB5 Fred Jackson BUF 32 3.69 6.4 83.5
142 51 RB5 Michael Bush CHI 29 4.77 4.9 73.5
143 52 RB5 Daniel Thomas MIA 25 4.70 5.0 65.0
144 21 QB2 Alex Smith KC 29 1.87 18.2 272.5
145 22 QB2 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 31 2.57 17.2 257.7
146 53 RB5 Jonathan Dwyer PIT 24 5.19 4.3 64.5
147 54 RB5 Knowshon Moreno DEN 26 5.22 4.3 64.0
148 55 RB5 Stepfan Taylor ARI 22 6.27 2.8 30.5
149 15 TE2 Robert Housler ARI 25 0.00 7.1 106.5
150 56 RB5 Roy Helu WAS 24 6.39 2.6 39.0
151 23 QB2 Ryan Tannehill MIA 25 2.39 17.4 261.6
152 16 TE2 Zach Sudfeld NE 24 1.60 4.8 72.5
153 17 TE2 Marcedes Lewis JAC 29 0.52 6.4 95.5
154 58 WR5 Julian Edelman NE 27 1.87 6.2 68.5
155 59 WR5 Brandon LaFell CAR 26 2.40 5.5 82.0
156 57 RB5 Rashad Jennings OAK 28 5.24 4.2 63.5
157 60 WR6 Jason Avant PHI 30 1.60 6.6 99.0
158 61 WR6 Malcom Floyd SD 31 2.03 6.0 72.0
159 24 QB2 Brandon Weeden CLE 29 2.87 16.8 251.4
160 62 WR6 Nate Burleson DET 32 2.20 5.8 80.5
161 63 WR6 Andre Roberts ARI 25 2.55 5.3 79.0
162 64 WR6 Markus Wheaton PIT 22 3.25 4.3 64.0
163 58 RB5 Kendall Hunter SF 24 5.36 4.1 61.0
164 65 WR6 Robert Woods BUF 21 2.78 4.9 74.0
165 59 RB5 Zac Stacy STL 22 5.26 4.2 63.0
166 20 TE2 Coby Fleener IND 24 0.90 5.8 81.5
167 66 WR6 Nate Washington TEN 30 2.85 4.8 72.5
168 67 WR6 Stephen Hill NYJ 22 2.09 5.9 71.0
169 68 WR6 Santonio Holmes NYJ 29 2.68 5.1 30.5
170 69 WR6 Kenny Stills NO 21 3.63 3.7 56.0
171 18 TE2 Ed Dickson BAL 26 4.78 6.0 89.5
172 19 TE2 Fred Davis WAS 27 1.13 5.5 82.5
173 60 RB5 Jacquizz Rodgers ATL 24 5.71 3.6 53.5
174 70 WR6 Keenan Allen SD 21 3.37 4.1 61.5
175 25 QB2 Christian Ponder MIN 25 1.65 18.5 240.2
176 61 RB5 Bilal Powell NYJ 24 6.06 3.1 43.0
177 21 TE2 Tyler Eifert CIN 22 1.44 5.1 76.0
178 22 TE2 Dwayne Allen IND 23 1.48 5.0 75.0
179 26 QB2 EJ Manuel BUF 23 3.46 15.9 143.3
180 27 QB2 Joe Flacco BAL 28 3.99 15.2 227.5
181 62 RB6 Denard Robinson JAC 22 6.11 3.0 45.0
182 71 WR6 Jeremy Kerley NYJ 24 2.26 5.7 85.0
183 72 WR6 Rod Streater OAK 25 2.17 5.8 87.0
184 63 RB6 Mike Tolbert CAR 27 5.62 3.7 55.5
185 64 RB6 Marcel Reece OAK 28 5.66 3.6 54.5
186 23 TE2 Brandon Myers NYG 27 1.81 4.5 68.0
187 24 TE2 Zach Ertz PHI 22 1.69 4.7 66.0
188 25 TE2 Jermaine Gresham CIN 24 1.72 4.7 70.0
189 73 WR6 Denarius Moore OAK 24 2.36 5.5 83.0
190 65 RB6 Deji Karim HOU 26 6.94 1.8 5.5
191 28 QB2 Philip Rivers SD 31 4.50 14.4 216.7
192 29 QB2 Jake Locker TEN 25 2.97 16.6 249.3
193 66 RB6 Isaac Redman PIT 28 6.44 2.5 38.0
194 26 TE2 Brandon Pettigrew DET 28 1.48 5.0 75.0
195 27 TE2 David Ausberry OAK 25 1.56 4.9 73.5
196 67 RB6 LaMichael James SF 23 6.43 1.9 29.0
197 68 RB6 Knile Davis KC 21 5.97 3.2 32.0
198 69 RB6 Jordan Todman JAC 23 6.94 1.8 27.5
199 70 RB6 Mikel Leshoure DET 23 6.46 2.5 37.5
200 28 TE2 Heath Miller PIT 30 1.39 5.1 56.5

Top 25: Given his ability to turn any play into a big play, Spiller is not in danger of falling out of the top six. In fact, it could be argued that EJ Manuel’s running ability only strengthens Spiller’s chances of making a run for 2,000 total yards. But even the staunchest supporters of Spiller have to be feeling a little queasy as Buffalo will likely turn to third-string undrafted free agent Jeff Tuel in Week 1 against the Patriots. Tuel has been sharp in the preseason (21-of-26 for 236 yards), but much of the Bills’ passing attack in the preseason has been within five yards of the line of scrimmage – based on my observations anyway. It also goes without saying that Tuel probably isn’t going to strike the same kind of fear into New England that Manuel would have. And perhaps Manuel’s “minor knee procedure” will not be an issue if/when he returns in Week 2, but anything more than a one-game absence means multiple games with Tuel, Matt Leinart or Thaddeus Lewis (who I actually like more than every other quarterback on the roster besides Manuel). Obviously, that would lead to multiple games where Spiller is the sole focus of every gameplan. It is something for owners to think about as owners in the early-to-middle part of the first round decide who to build their fantasy franchise around in 2013.

In my most updated projections, I have Ridley running for 1,240 yards and 14 scores in 15 games – numbers that I believe represent his ceiling and assume that he won’t have any more fumbling issues. That total alone would almost guarantee any other back RB1 status, but Ridley’s inability to contribute in the passing game (nine catches in 32 career games) catches up to him, even in this format. It is for that reason he is stretched as anything more than a mid-level RB2 and could actually be less valuable than any other player ranked in this part of my Big Board. He’s even more risky than just about every other player in the top 25 as well since Vereen will play almost every passing down, during the two-minute drill or comeback situations and could actually be the flavor of the week as a rusher in any given game. For a top-15 back going in the mid-to-late second round, that’s an awful lot of time he’s not spending on the field. As such, I can understand why any owner that would rather select a top-flight receiver in the mid-second round and draft a player like Lacy, Sproles or even David Wilson in the third.

26-50: I would argue there are 11 receivers I feel safe calling fantasy WR1s. Decker and Nelson are also in the discussion, but perhaps no receiver brings the upside of Garcon. At last check, owners rarely complain when their receiver’s quarterback is the only wideout they care to throw to on a regular basis. Of course, there is a hint of exaggeration in that statement, but if the Redskins’ passing game operates in the same manner it did last season, it means there will be a lot of one-read passes for Griffin. That’s not to suggest RG3 can’t handle more, it is merely what I observed when Garcon was healthy. As the “X” receiver in OC Kyle Shanahan’s offense, Garcon plays the same role that Andre Johnson did when Shanahan was in Houston. Like Johnson, the ex-Colt doesn’t exactly have a lot of other quality receivers to share the ball with in D.C. If Garcon can stay healthy – a rather big “if” – the Redskins’ running game will ensure he will not see much in the way of double coverage. In that scenario, a full 16 games from Garcon could easily allow him to finish inside the top 10 in standard leagues.

Even given the somewhat unpredictable nature of standard scoring, there are few running backs that can offer the boom-or-bust potential each week than David Wilson figures to in 2013. I have repeatedly made the comparison to Chris Johnson for the simple fact that Wilson is as explosive as any back in the league, but he also has a lot going against him on his own depth chart. Forget for a second that Andre Brown is probably the Giants’ goal-line back because most of Wilson’s fantasy contributions figured to come via big plays anyway. The bigger problem is that Brown is also seeing a lot of passing-down work as well, meaning Wilson almost has to produce a big play every week until he either improves his pass-blocking skills or Brown gets hurt. The dilemma for fantasy owners: both could very well happen this season since players tend to make big jumps in their second year and Brown hasn’t been the most durable player. As a result, Wilson is worthy of a third-round pick in this format because, as far as he appears to be from being a full-time back, it’s not as far away as it seems. He really is a break or two away from a top-15 RB finish.

51-100: The best thing McFadden has going for him heading into 2013 is this season can be his final one in Oakland. While the Raiders made the right call in switching back to the same power-running game model they used in 2011, his offensive line projects to be the worst one in the NFL following the loss of LT Jared Veldheer. (Oakland’s offensive line, from left to right, will consist of rookie Menelik Watson, Lucas Nix/Tony Bergstrom, Stefen Wisniewski, Mike Brisiel and Khalif Barnes.) No matter what the scheme, it is going to be incredibly difficult for Oakland to stick with its running game even if OL coach Tony Sparano rallies the troops because the defense also figures to be every bit as bad. Thus, much of McFadden’s value could actually come via the passing game – and that assumes FB Marcel Reece does not steal third-down work from him. Let’s also not forget McFadden’s lack of durability. If McFadden somehow overcomes all the obstacles I have laid out and the staff figures out how to best utilize Pryor, McFadden might finish among the top 20 running backs in all formats; it’s just not a gamble I would take before the fifth round.

Few will question the top three fantasy tight ends in Graham, Gronkowski and Gonzalez. While the debate conceivably starts at No. 4, in standard leagues, Rudolph should get the nod since he is seemingly Ponder’s default option in the red zone while Witten is almost an afterthought for Romo inside the 2. Be that as it may, the intrigue for me begins at No. 7 since all three players (Finley, Cameron and Davis) have the skill set to challenge the top three, just like Rudolph. I’ve been skeptical of the buzz about Finley and Davis all summer long, but I have reason to believe Finley’s right now more than Davis’. Why? Finley plays on an offense with the best quarterback in the league. He is also coming off a 61-catch season in which he butted heads with Rodgers and didn’t really start to emerge until the second half. Perhaps most importantly, he looks the part now from a size standpoint as well as in his play this preseason. We’ve discussed Cameron enough in previous weeks, so we’ll move on to Davis. On one hand, Davis is a player that has reportedly built an impressive rapport with Kaepernick throughout the offseason and training camp. On the other hand, he has shown an incredible knack lately of disappointing in fantasy during the regular season only to explode during the NFL playoffs. Were it not for his place in a run-oriented offense, I might be tempted to rank him higher. With that said, no other tight end’s upside is higher than Davis’ and, at the cost of a late sixth- or early seventh-rounder, his price tag is no longer too high.

101-150: Le’Veon Bell’s training camp and preseason was an extreme example of the phrase, “Welcome to the NFL, rookie”. First, it was soreness in his left knee, which caused him to miss the Steelers' preseason opener. Days later, he aggravated the knee in practice. He returned to make an appearance in the Steelers' second preseason game, but that outing was cut short due to injury. Last Monday, Bell sprained his right foot after playing in just one series. The Steelers are calling his latest setback a mid-foot sprain – as opposed to a Lisfranc injury – and have yet to announce a timetable. Still, to be on the safe side, I am projecting Bell to miss the first four games as I believe Pittsburgh will eye his return after the team’s Week 5 bye – giving him nearly eight weeks to recover. Bell was incredibly durable in college despite a heavy workload, so this recent rash of injuries would seem to be a terrible run of bad luck (and possibly a result of the physical camp HC Mike Tomlin reportedly had) for a player that could easily be a solid flex option when healthy – if not a low-end RB2. Like Harvin, owners would be wise to invest a pick near the 10th round area or after with the idea that he will be able to contribute at some point before the second half of the season. Assuming a full recovery, it’s a more than reasonable price to pay for solid depth at a shallow position.

Moreno makes his first Big Board appearance of the year and rightfully so considering the aforementioned struggles of the two players (Ball and Hillman) that were supposed to run him out of town. While the lead-back role should go to Ball once he acclimates himself to the NFL, Hillman’s fumbling woes could be just what Moreno needed to get some early-season run in Denver. The fifth-year back is easily the most trusted option of the three backs in all aspects in the passing game, which just happens to be the team’s strong point. Moreno doesn’t offer a ton of upside in fantasy, but last year’s second half served as proof once again that a steady veteran back in a Peyton Manning-led offense is typically a good fantasy option. And it seems like every year we see at least one veteran player – who starts the season as a fill-in until the hot-shot youngster gets up to speed – makes himself impossible to take off the field as his team gets off to a fast start. Moreno is more than capable of being that kind of threat and more than worthy of a late-round pick in hopes that the muddled Broncos backfield is every bit as unclear at midseason as it is now.

151-200: It is rare that we need to discuss third-string running backs at the beginning of the season, but Karim may be the exception given Foster’s recent injury concerns and Tate’s lack of durability throughout his pro career. Although Dennis Johnson is a more impressive athlete and gifted runner, Karim has done a much better job during the preseason of simply finding the hole and getting what he can. Karim – who once was considered a freakish athlete best suited for third-down duties and kickoff returns – is also much stronger (and bulkier) than I can remember him being at any point in the NFL. The former Jaguar and Colt is not the explosive runner I recall from his early days, but his 6.1 YPC against a mixture of first- and second-stringers this preseason should raise an eyebrow. In Houston’s scheme, even a player like Karim could produce like a low-end RB2 or solid flex if Foster and Tate struggle to stay healthy. Again, my preference would be to see the more explosive Johnson, but the undrafted free agent has to learn to trust the Texans’ zone-blocking system first.

Next: Big Board: Ks & D/STs

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Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and appeared in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in 2010 and 2011. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday this past season. Doug regularly appears as a fantasy football analyst on Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive” and for 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.