OK, new assignment. I spent the past couple weeks talking about
players I think are overvalued and more likely than not to fall
out of the Top 10 this coming season. Now it’s time to discuss
the players I think have the best shot at replacing them. Some have
been there many times before and others would be making their first
appearance, but all of them would be outperforming their 2022 selves
should they prove me right. Also, full disclosure: Only two of them
have to do that for me to outperform MY 2022 self. LOL!
A quick reminder of the Top 10 fantasy WRs from last season…
Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s
Non-PPR league scoring.
Ja’Marr
Chase, CIN: Cut me a little slack,
would ya’? Last year was my worst ever predicting Top 10 Risers
(1 for 9), so I could use a layup in 2023. Chase is about as sure
a thing as there is at the position, provided he stays healthy.
He plays for a Super Bowl contender, plays with the most successful
young slinger in the game, and has scored double-digit fantasy points
in over half his 29 NFL appearances. In fact, only three other WRs
have averaged more FPts/G since he came into the league in 2021:
Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, and his college teammate Justin Jefferson,
this year’s consensus WR1.
Chase isn’t far behind as the consensus WR2 (ADP 2.7 in
PPR leagues) and one couldn’t be faulted for prioritizing
him over that other LSU product. Though he has more competition
for targets in Cincinnati (Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, most notably),
he’s a much more reliable scorer of touchdowns. Despite
playing in 21 fewer NFL games than Jefferson, he’s scored
only three fewer career TDs. Yards and receptions matter too,
especially in PPR leagues, but those six-pointers are still the
surest path to a healthy bottom line on game days and Chase is
a paydirt machine.
Of course, it’s hard to score points when you’re
watching in sweats and Chase did that too often in 2022, missing
five games on account of a fractured hip (ouch!). That he was
able to avoid IR and return for a Bengals playoff run bodes well
for his future in the league, where playing through pain is just
part of the job description. I’m not a doctor or a psychic,
but if he plays all 17 this year, there’s no chance the
Bengals’ WR1 doesn’t return to the Top 10 ranks.
Garrett
Wilson, NYJ: I’ve already tagged
Wilson’s new battery mate as a Top 10 Riser, so why not the guy
he’ll be tossing those HOF-worthy spirals to come September? There
was nothing HOF-worthy about the Jets’ quarterback room in 2022,
which makes what the former Buckeye did in his first season—83
receptions, 1,103 yards, and four scores—all the more remarkable.
Those numbers are almost statistically indistinguishable from
digits put up by WR11 Christian Kirk (84 receptions for 1,1018
yards) and WR13 Tyler Lockett (84 and 1,033), not to mention the
aforementioned WR12, Chase (87 and 1,046, though he played five
fewer games). Where Wilson failed to measure up was in the TD
department, something he’ll need to improve upon to make a Top
10 leap.
What do you think the chances are he doesn’t do that playing
with red zone maestro, Aaron Rodgers? The Head Cheese has always
needed time to gel with his new targets, which is probably why
he dragged “blankies” Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb
over with him from Wisconsin. Nevertheless, it isn’t going
to take him long to establish rapport with the much more athletic
Wilson, especially since suddenness and separation are the kid’s
calling cards. Davante Adams got open for A-Rodge by being the
league’s best route runner. Wilson will do it by being an
extremely fluid athlete who also happens to have great hands and
top-notch speed (4.38 40-yd dash).
If you need any further convincing, consider that Christian Watson,
a similarly athletic but rawer rookie, averaged 13.3 FPts/G from
Week 10 on last year. If Wilson can avoid getting sent to Rodgers’
doghouse in the first place (catch that first deep ball, Garrett!),
he’s got a great chance to crack the Top 10 in year two.
DK Metcalf,
SEA: I actually considered Watson for this final spot,
but will instead go with a similarly freakish athlete who sports
a more accomplished resume and who didn’t suffer the loss
of an all-time great at the QB position. Geno Smith will never
be confused with an all-time great, but he’s a successful
starter in the NFL, which is something we wouldn’t have
thought possible heading into the 2022 season. With Smith at the
helm, Metcalf commanded 141 targets and turned them into 90 receptions,
both career highs. He also tallied just over 1,000 receiving yards,
well off his 2020 pace (1,303) but more than he’d accumulated
in 2021 (967).
Alas, what kept Metcalf outside the velvet rope in 2022 was the
same thing that prevented Garrett Wilson from making an even bigger
splash in his rookie season, a paucity of six-pointers. After
notching 22 in the two years prior, Metcalf managed only 6 TDs
last season. This despite being targeted a whopping 27 times in
the red zone, second only to Justin Jefferson. The glass half
empty version? He isn’t able to leverage uncommon size and
athleticism into productivity when it counts (or, less charitably,
he can’t catch a cold). The glass half full version? This
uncommon athleticism and size are WHY he’ll continue to
command so much attention nearer the goal line and touchdown regression
is definitely a thing.
I’m not usually a glass half full guy, folks, but I’m
all in on DK this year. I believe he’ll continue to be heavily
targeted in the red zone and be more efficient with those targets.
I also believe the addition of Jaxson Smith-Njigba will give Seattle
opponents even more to worry about this coming season. Metcalf
returns to the Top 10 after a one-year hiatus.
