I’ve recently been profiling those QBs,
RBs, and WRs
I think will take a step back this coming season, so now it’s
time to identify their possible successors. We’re always on
shakier ground here--much smaller pool of potential dropouts than
replacements, after all--but I did bat a cool .500 last
summer. Just sayin’...
Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s default standard
scoring.
A quick reminder of the Top 10 fantasy RBs from last season...
Jamaal Williams was the fourth highest scoring
RB in Week 16, meaning he ultimately mattered more to fantasy GMs
last year than Aaron Jones, the guy he mostly backstopped the rest
of the season. Regardless of whether Williams won you a fantasy
chip or cost you one (sigh), there should be no mistaking who the
Green Bay back to own is this year. Everyone knows it, probably
even Mike McCarthy, the guy who was criminally slow to warm to Jones’
talent.
The speedy 5th rounder from UTEP raised some eyebrows as a rookie
in 2017 when he averaged an FBS-like 5.5 YPC in limited carries
(81). This would have been the second-best YPC clip amongst running
backs had he qualified, trailing only Alvin Kamara, a much more
celebrated 2017 noob. Enthusiasm for Jones heading into the 2018
campaign was still fairly muted, however, as he faced a two-game
suspension right out of the gate and, presumably, many doubted
he could be as efficient with more touches. Does 5.5 YPC over
133 carries enthuse you a bit more? That led the league and it
absolutely qualified.
McCarthy got the hook after 13 years in ‘Sconny, meaning
it’s now Matt LaFleur’s job to figure out how best
to deploy Jones, who hasn’t yet notched a 20-carry game
as a pro. LaFleur will also employ a committee approach, but consider
that his Titans offense ran the ball 454 times last season compared
to Green Bay’s 333 (dead last). More carries to split up
is still more carries for all involved. Coach LaFleur also intends
to involve his backs more as pass catchers and Jones, while raw,
showed promise as a receiving threat last year. I believe there’s
no better value or upside at the RB spot in 2019.
It’s way early still and RB shelf lives
are brutally short, but that 2017 RB draft class sure looks to
be shaping up as one of the all-time greats: Alvin Kamara, Aaron
Jones, Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette, Joe Mixon, Kareem
Hunt, James Conner, Tarik Cohen, Marlon Mack, and Chris Carson.
Oh, and Dalvin Cook, the guy we probably thought would be the
biggest star of all after they’d played a month or so of
professional football.
Cook averaged 14.1 FPts/G over that first month of the 2017 season
and looked every bit the dual-threat dynamo his fellow classmates
did before disaster struck against Detroit in Week 4 (torn ACL).
17 missed games later and a much slower start to his sophomore
campaign has the former Seminole needing to rehabilitate his fantasy
profile heading into this season. And if early projections and
ADP are any indication, he’s already starting to do that.
Cook is very consistently being projected in the RB9 to RB11 range
based on my limited research (we have him at RB9) and that seems
like the perfect slot for a high-upside, high-risk rock toter.
What’s likely buoying those projections heading into 2019
is what people saw out of Cook once Kevin Stefanski took the reins
of Minnesota’s offense late last year. Through Week 14,
he averaged an uninspiring 10.9 carries per contest, clearly not
enough to thrill his owners. From that point forward, however,
Stefanski gave Cook the rock 15.3 times per game. Add that to
the 3+ targets he received over that stretch and...now we’re
cooking with fire. It’s no surprise Minny’s main man
ranked as RB7 over the season’s final five weeks and a similar
utilization rate would almost certainly vault him into the Top
10 this year.
If Dalvin Cook
was good over the season’s final five weeks, Damien
Williams was great. Despite garnering 21 fewer carries over
that same Week 13-to-Week 17 stretch, the former Sooner scored more
fantasy points and, almost overnight, made Chiefs fans forget about
Kareem Hunt
and his career-imperiling behavioral problems. In fact, from Week
14 through the end of KC’s season (including two playoff games),
the previously unheralded Williams averaged 20.0 FPts/G. That’s
better than Hunt’s 18.6 FPts/G mark and better than every other
RB’s full-season rate save for Todd
Gurley’s.
It’s uncertain as we sit here in early to mid-August whether
Williams will earn the same workload Hunt and previous Chiefs
bell cows have. Andy Reid et al. said all the right things this
summer but an early-camp hamstring injury has clouded the outlook
to an extent. It’s probably just coach doublespeak, but
Reid’s praise of backup Carlos Hyde (blah) is at least worth
a mention. That said, it’s also worth mentioning that in
six years as the head man in KC, Big Red has placed four RBs in
the top eight (Jamaal Charles twice and then Hunt two more times).
When Reid has a stud, he knows what to do with him.
What’s particularly compelling about Williams is his ability
to contribute as a pass receiver. In that aforementioned six-game
span to close out the year, he averaged nearly five receptions
per contest and scored four times via the airwaves. Add those
four receiving TDs to the seven Hunt had already accumulated earlier
on and we start to envision how high the ceiling for the main
Chiefs back can actually be. Monitor his usage the rest of this
month, but start getting excited about Williams’ potential
in the league’s most dynamic offense.
