8/15/08
Each year, many free agents sign large deals that line their wallets.
Some of those players have an immediate impact on the teams that
sign them. Others have no impact at all. We take a look at each
team’s free agent comings and goings in this series. When
combined with the rookies added via the draft and analyzed in the
Rookie Impact series by
Matt Waldman, you can see a complete picture of how offseason
personnel changes will affect each team.
In part 4 of this series, we look at the AFC West and NFC West teams
and analyze their free agent movements.
Denver Broncos
Key Additions: Traded for Dewayne
Robertson; Signed RB Michael Pittman, WR Keary Colbert, WR Darrell
Jackson, WR Samie Parker, LB Boss Bailey
Key Losses: WR Javon Walker, WR
Rod Smith (retired), RB Travis Henry, K Jason Elam, S John Lynch
Analysis: What does a team do
when they cut one WR, lose one WR to suspension via the NFL’s
conduct policy (3 games), and perhaps your greatest WR of all time
retires? Well, they signed a bunch of guys to try to fill in those
gaps, of course. The Broncos brought in Darrell Jackson, Samie Parker,
and Keary Colbert to replace Javon Walker, Brandon Marshall (suspension)
and Rod Smith. If you are Jay Cutler, I don’t think that you
like those changes of fortune. The team also lost starting running
back (sometimes) Travis Henry and their long-time kicker Jason Elam.
Henry’s loss will leave Selvin Young as the de-factor starter
with Mike Bell gone and Ryan Torain fracturing an elbow last week.
Fantasy Outlook: Jay
Cutler had a nice season last year. However, with Walker gone
and Marshall looking at a 3 game suspension, he is going to have
his challenges to continue his progress. He has a new weapon with
Darrell Jackson
and Brandon
Stokley should still be manning the slot. Selvin
Young probably thought after the draft that he had a tenuous
hold on the job. With Travis
Henry and Mike
Bell cut, and Ryan
Torain out with an elbow injury, now he looks like he has a
solid hold on the #1 job in Denver, which can have a ton of value.
However, you have to consider that Mike Shanahan is the coach, so
don’t get too high on Young without remembering the heartburn that
“rat-face” might give you during the season with the games that
he plays, especially with a versatile guy like Michael
Pittman waiting in the wings. Then there’s Andre
Hall, the South Florida back that many teams, including the
Patriots, had rated as a 3rd round back a few years ago – he’s reportedly
the best runner on the depth chart in terms of vision. At WR, Marshall
is going to be a great option when he plays. The defense was not
real consistent last season and none of their offseason moves indicate
a need to think of them as anything other than a bye-week replacement
if there is a great matchup.
Kansas City Chiefs
Key Additions: Signed WR Devard Darling, LB Demorrio Williams, CB
B.J. Sams
Key Losses: Traded DE Jared Allen; Released WR Eddie Kennison, WR
Samie Parker, TE Kris Wilson, T John Welbourn, T Kyle Turley
Analysis: The Chiefs were a horrible team last season, finishing
at 4-12. When you are that bad, you look to either pick up players
via free agency (like the Jets) or you look to build through the
draft. The Chiefs took the latter route. None of the players that
they picked up in free agency can be considered “game-changers”.
In reality, only Demorrio Williams was starter for his previous
team and that was for an even worse team in the Falcons. Where the
Chiefs looked to build was in the draft and they did a very good
job of that in filling holes in the offense and defense by making
6 out of the first 82 picks selected. They picked up Glenn Dorsey
to shore up the defensive line and Branden Albert to shore up the
offensive line. Dorsey is going to be very important, considering
that the team’s lone bright spot last season, Jared Allen,
is now in Minnesota after a trade that will net them... more draft
picks. The offensive line is going to have to replace starter John
Welbourn and part-time starter Kyle Turley, a year after having
to deal with the loss of stalwart Will Shields and Willie Roaf two
years ago. The team also lost some key WR’s in Samie Parker
and veteran Eddie Kennison. With the emergence of Dwayne Bowe last
season as a rookie, the team hopes that Devard Darling will take
over that #2 spot.
Fantasy Outlook: If you are a Larry Johnson owner (like me) and
you are looking for a bright spot for this team, you may want to
take a light bulb and stick it in your eye. LJ is coming of a foot
injury (Shawn Alexander, anyone?) and has to deal with a juggling
line, some questions at receiver, and a QB who is probably going
to be a huge question mark. Brady Croyle has the inside edge at
the starting QB job (over Damon Huard), which shows that this team
is really in rebuilding mode. You would have to think that the team
is going to perhaps ride LJ early, but if things go wrong, they
will look to play their younger prospects to see what they have.
Dwayne Bowe is one of those young prospects and really represents
a nice value option on a team that really does not have much to
offer overall. The exception to that is veteran TE Tony Gonzalez
who still represents a nice value for teams considering that he
is likely to be a good safety valve for a young QB running for his
life. The defense is a bottom tier defense that might not be worth
the ink that you use on your cheat sheets.
Oakland Raiders
Key Additions: Traded for CB DeAngelo Hall; Signed WR Javon Walker,
WR Drew Carter, C John Wade, T Kwame Harris, DE Greg Spires, S Gibril
Wilson
Key Losses: RB Lamont Jordan, RB Dominic Rhodes, WR Jerry Porter,
QB Josh McCown, DT Warren Sapp, S Stuart Schweigert
Analysis: With a team that has had trouble winning games in recent
years, you would think that they would try to make some moves to
solidify things along the lines and protect their investments in
guys like JaMarcus Russell. However, they instead chose to spend
huge dollars on a WR coming of an injury (Javon Walker) and trading
for a CB who alienated his teammates in Atlanta (DeAngelo Hall).
The signing of C John Wade and T Kwame Harris add some veteran help
along the line looking to make some holes for recently extended
Justin Fargas (insert Huggy Bear reference here) and rookie Darren
McFadden, while hopefully giving more protection for Russell than
the line provided last season. However, Harris barely played last
season and neither is going to transform this offense into a dynamo.
On defense, the team put out a ton of money (too much IMO) to re-sign
Tommy Kelly coming off an ACL injury. It remains to be seen if they
can get the type of pressure that Rob Ryan, who was fired and then
not fired during the offseason, is looking for.
Fantasy Outlook: The Raiders were #6 in total rushing yards last
year with over 2,000 yards on the ground. However, they were tied
for 18th in rushing TD’s. The addition of McFadden puts a
nice carrot out there for people looking for a dynasty player but
if you are in a redraft league, you might want to hold off despite
all of the hype (see Matt Waldman’s columns for details on
why). JaMarcus Russell is heading towards his second year, but he
really skipped most of the first season holding out and sitting
on the bench, so he is still in learning mode. Javon Walker is stepping
in to fill the “void” left by Jerry Porter and doing
so with a nice big contract. The question is whether the void in
question is as a true, top-tier WR or whether he is going to be
the latest in a line of whacky Raider receivers. The defense is
still a bottom tier option as it is still likely that they are going
to average about the 24+ points per game that they did last season.
San Diego Chargers
Key Additions: Signed C Jeremy Newberry, T L.J. Shelton
Key Losses: RB Michael Turner, WR Eric Parker, FB Lorenzo Neal,
DB Drayton Florence
Analysis: The Chargers made it to the AFC Championship game last
season and it was injuries that may have derailed their SB hopes.
With QB Philip Rivers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson and TE Antonio Gates
all desperately hurting during that game, they fell to the Patriots
in New England. Due to cap restrictions and really not a lot of
changes necessary, the team made very few moves during the offseason.
The biggest need for this team will be health. The team signed C
Jeremy Newberry as insurance for C Nick Hardwick who was also hurt
during the playoffs last season.
Fantasy Outlook: The loss of RB Michael Turner means that Tomlinson
is going to be relied on even more in this offseason, which will
give him more value short-term, but will all of the work and age
start to catch up to LT2? A more subtle item will be the impact
of the loss of Lorenzo Neal to the running game of the Chargers,
since he has spent the last 5 seasons blocking for Tomlinson. The
key questions will still be the overall health of LT2, Rivers, and
Gates. All of those will affect the value of the rest of the team.
Chris Chambers was picked up mid-way through last season and he
should continue to provide a nice option for Rivers and probably
has more value than Vincent Jackson. Gates has been a traditional
fantasy beast at the TE position, but other offenses looking for
their TE’s and his injury make him not really worth the 3rd
round price that you used to have to pay to get Gates. The defense
is still very solid (understatement) and their speed and tenacity
(see Shawne Merriman) should make them a top defense worthy of a
pick before the last 2 rounds of your draft.
Arizona Cardinals
Key Additions: Signed TE Jerame Tuman, LB Clark Haggans, LB Matt
Stewart; DE Travis LaBoy, DL Bryan Robinson
Key Losses: WR Bryant Johnson, RB Marcel Shipp, LB Calvin Pace,
CB Eric Green, S Terrence Holt
Analysis: The Cardinals lost WR Bryant Johnson, who was a solid
3rd WR, but they hope that 2nd year man Steve Breaston can step
up and take over that role. LB Calvin Pace was a highly coveted
FA this offseason, but Clark Haggans is a solid replacement. The
secondary took a hit with the losses of Eric Green and Terrence
Holt, but the team hopes that rookie Domique Rogers-Cromartie will
help make that defense even stronger combined with the move of Antrel
Rolle to safety. The team cut Marcel Shipp, making many Edgerrin
James owners happy (due to Shipp’s TD vulturing), but it also
should allow rookie Tim Hightower to be a presence in this offense
with the team likely trying to periodically rest James.
Fantasy Outlook: The Cardinals made Larry Fitzgerald a very happy
man by signing him to a contract extension back in March. Now, they
have a challenge in keeping the WR on the opposite side of the field,
Anquan Boldin, happy as he is looking for a new contract. That sort
of distraction, along with the unclear situation at QB can have
some people uneasy about an offense that, on paper, is very talented.
For now, the team is going to be going with Matt Leinart, but Kurt
Warner is waiting in the wings should Leinart falter or get injured
(or have another wild bash with college girls!). Edgerrin James
will again carry the load for the Cardinals, making him a top 15
RB. The key reason that he is not more highly ranked is that he
has now hit that over-30 threshold for RB’s making people
very leery. The defense strung together a few good games last season,
but they were very inconsistent. That leaves them as probably a
bye-week replacement, especially when they are playing the Rams.
San Francisco 49ers
Key Additions: Signed WR Isaac Bruce, RB DeShaun Foster, WR Bryant
Johnson, QB J.T. O'Sullivan, KR Allen Rossum, DE Justin Smith, DT
LaJuan Ramsey, LB Takeo Spikes and LB Dontarrious Thomas
Key Losses: QB Trent Dilfer, RB Maurice Hicks, WR Darrell Jackson,
G Larry Allen, G Justin Smiley, T Kwame Harris, DE Bryant Young,
DE Marques Douglas, LB Brandon Moore
Analysis: The 49’ers lost quite a few veterans this season,
but they gained an offensive coordinator that some fantasy managers
just love, in Mike Martz. The addition of Isaac Bruce and Bryant
Johnson should help shore up a receiving corps that has been disappointing.
The question is whether it was the fault of receivers like Darrell
Jackson (who is now gone) or the QB Alex Smith. Smith has some competition
in Shaun Hill, but you would expect that the team is going to go
with the #1 overall pick from 2005 (Smith) over the journeyman with
a grand total of 4 games under his belt in 7 seasons (Hill). The
team also picked up DeShaun Foster who should give Frank Gore a
breather here and there and also provide some insurance. The offensive
line lost several veterans in Larry Allen, Justin Smiley, and Kwame
Harris, but hope that 2nd round pick Chilo Rachal will help fill
some of those gaps. The defense gained DE Justin Smith to help with
the rush on the outside to help replace long-time 9’er Bryant
Young. They recently added Takeo Spikes to help with the linebacking
unit after cutting veteran Brandon Moore.
Fantasy Outlook: The team definitely
upgraded in the offensive skill positions of WR and RB (depth).
However, they still have two key question marks on any offense in
the offensive line and QB. Neither position is well manned at this
point in San Francisco, which should have many Frank
Gore owners nervous. Alex
Smith will likely be the starter at QB and he is going to be
a bottom 10 QB in most formats, leaving their new WR’s Isaac
Bruce and Bryant
Johnson as being outside of the top 30. If you are feeling lucky,
then go for it with either of those guys. At RB, Frank Gore is going
to get so many touches and be relied on so much, that he is going
to be a top 15 RB, even with all of the questions on the line and
at QB. Vernon
Davis has such good physical assets that, if he can stay healthy,
he will be a top 12 TE. The defense is going to be bottom 10 and
not really worth a consideration even though many people think that
they are going to be improved from last season.
Seattle Seahawks
Key Additions: Signed RBs T.J. Duckett and Julius Jones, TE Jeb
Putzier, G Mike Wahle, DT Larry Tripplett, LB D.D. Lewis, K Olindo
Mare and DL Chris Cooper
Key Losses: RB Shaun Alexander, WR D.J. Hackett, K Josh Brown, TE
Marcus Pollard, T Sean Locklear, OL Jeff Robinson, LB’s Kevin
Bently and Marquis Cooper, DT Chuck Darby, DE Ellis Wyms, DT Marcus
Tubbs
Analysis: The Seahawks brought in a couple of backup RB’s
in T.J. Duckett and Julius Jones to replace an aging Shaun Alexander
to play alongside Maurice Morris. This is likely going to be one
of those RBBC situations that make fantasy owners cringe, but more
and more teams are going to this type of running game. The loss
of D.J. Hackett should be felt more now, with the loss of Bobby
Engram for the next 6-8 weeks and Deion Branch still trying to come
back from an ACL injury. They are likely to rely upon their two
young receivers from Auburn, Ben Obomanu and Courtney Taylor. Obomanu
has decent deep speed and Taylor is a fearless possession guy.
Normally, a kicker does not get a mention in this space (I think
that I threw up in mouth a little), but gone is Josh Brown, being
replaced by Olindo Mare. That can’t be good news for Seahawks
fans that are looking for a key kick to win a game. The offensive
line is improved with the addition of Mike Wahle. The defensive
line is helped with the addition of Larry Tripplett, but the loss
of Marcus Tubbs will hurt this defense.
Fantasy Outlook: Dynasty owners of Matt Hasselbeck can’t be
too enthusiastic about the way this offseason has gone. In addition
to the loss of Hackett, the injury to Bobby Engram, and the uncertainty
of the RB situation, Hasselbeck is being slowed down by some back
problems that are not considered serious, but they can’t be
encouraging either. Many think that Julius Jones is likely to emerge
as the starting running back, with Duckett seeing some goal line
carries and Morris getting some 3rd down work. However, if the first
pre-season game means anything, Maurice Morris is not going down
without a fight. He looked good going for 62 yards on 6 carries.
Normally, that does not mean much, but he also had several good
games last season when given the chance to start with Alexander
hurt. The team moved up to draft Will Heller at TE and he could
be a pretty decent sleeper with all of the uncertainty going on
in the offense. Nate Burleson, the only healthy WR from last season
is a good option, but when Engram comes back, he will go back to
being #2. The defense had a pretty solid fantasy season and this
season, they could do the same, especially with two games against
St. Louis and San Francisco.
St. Louis Rams
Key Additions: Signed QB Trent Green, QB Bruce Gradkowski, TE Anthony
Becht, WR Reche Caldwell, OL Brandon Gorin, G Jacob Bell, K Josh
Brown, CB David Macklin, DE James Hall.
Key Losses: QB Gus Frerotte, WR Isaac Bruce, T Todd Steussie, G
Milford Brown, K Jeff Wilkins, LB Brandon Chillar, DE Trevor Johnson,
CB Lenny Walls
Analysis: The Rams sort of stunk last season, but much of that can
be attributed to injuries. The offensive line was hurting, which
impacted RB Steven Jackson and QB Marc Bulger. They are hopeful
that Orlando Pace can return after playing 1 game last year and
just 9 of the last 32 games to anchor the offensive line, which
he did in the first preseason game. However, Steven Jackson is holding
out, looking for more money and more security, which puts a damper
on any progress being made. The loss of Isaac Bruce will hurt because
he was a veteran fixture on this offense for a long time and was
still productive. Out goes Gus Frerotte as the backup QB and in
come Trent Green and Bruce Gradkowski to fight for that spot. Jeff
Wilkins leaves and they make a move to bring in Josh Brown. Those
are okay moves, but probably not enough to affect a team that was
3-13.
Fantasy Outlook: The question is how long Jackson will hold out
for. The reality is that he does not need to take any more poundings
behind this offensive line until the start of the regular season,
but it can affect team harmony. Gone is Isaac Bruce, which leaves
Drew Bennett as the entrenched #2 WR next to Torry Holt. If Marc
Bulger can get some time, he should be able to get the ball downfield
to those receivers and help open up things underneath for Jackson
to run the ball or catch it out of the backfield. So, it all comes
back to the line for this team. If they can be half decent, the
Rams could put up some pretty good numbers offensively. However,
their defense is still going to be at the bottom of the league (they
gave up 340 rushing yards and a 7.2 ypc average to the Titans in
their first preseason game), which means that the offense is going
to be playing behind a lot.
Material from personal interviews, wire services, team beat
writers, and league and team sources were used in this report.
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