8/8/08
Each year, many free agents sign large deals that line their wallets.
Some of those players have an immediate impact on the teams that
sign them. Others have no impact at all. We take a look at each
team’s free agent comings and goings in this series. When
combined with the rookies added via the draft and analyzed in the
Rookie Impact series by
Matt Waldman, you can see a complete picture of how offseason
personnel changes will affect each team.
In part 3 of this series, we look at the AFC East and NFC East teams
and analyze their free agent movements.
Buffalo Bills
Key Additions: Traded for DT Marcus Stroud; Signed DT Spencer Johnson,
LB Kawika Mitchell, DB Will James
Key Losses: WR Peerless Price, RB Anthony Thomas, DT Larry Tripplett,
DB Jerametrius Butler, DB Jason Webster
Analysis: The Bills defense averaged giving up over 22 points per
game and the offense averaged less than 16 points per game. Neither
are good numbers, but the Bills focused their attention in free
agency on the defensive side of the ball along with three of their
first four draft picks. The big acquisition on defense was defensive
tackle Marcus Stroud from the Jaguars, who the Bills hope can anchor
a line that was 29th in the league in sacks last season. The defensive
backfield signed Will James (Eagles) and drafted Leodis McKelvin
to support a defensive backfield that was partly responsible for
being 29th in passing yards allowed, while also being top 10 in
interceptions. On offense, the team made no moves while losing the
A-Train and disappointing Peerless Price.
Fantasy Outlook: The offense is going to be led by 2nd-year QB Trent
Edwards. He will have another year under his belt as will second-year
RB Marshawn Lynch. Lynch is an every down back that will get enough
carries and passes to be a top 10 RB this season, while Edwards
is probably not in the top 20 QB’s. It should also be interesting
to see what the impact is of the holdout by tackle Jason Peters
to the offensive line and Marshawn Lynch. Edwards will get the ball
to Lee Evans enough to make him a top 25 WR, but there is not much
more than that to this offense that you can hang your hat on. The
defense made some moves, but not enough to warrant consideration
of them for much more than a bye-week replacement.
Miami Dolphins
Key Additions: Traded for DT Jason Ferguson, TE Anthony Fasano and
LB Akin Ayodele; Signed QB Josh McCown, WR Ernest Wilford, TE Sean
Ryan, G Justin Smiley, G Steve McKinney, DT Randy Starks, LB Reggie
Torbor, DB Keith Davis
Key Losses: QB Trent Green, QB Cleo Lemon, RB Samkon Gado, RB Jesse
Chatman, WR Marty Booker, C Rex Hadnot, DE Jason Taylor, DT Keith
Traylor, LB Zach Thomas, LB Derrick Pope, LB Donnie Spragan, LB
Charlie Anderson, S Lance Schulters
Analysis: When the Dolphins hired Bill Parcells to make personnel
decisions, you had to know that he was going to put his stamp on
this team. Players either fit his system or style or they will be
sent packing. That goes for the coaching staff as well, considering
that the Tuna brought in Tony Sparano from the Cowboys to be the
head coach and Jeff Ireland as the GM. During the offseason, this
management team got rid of many long-term Dolphins, like Zach Thomas
and Jason Taylor, while making moves for 2007 Cowboys Jason Ferguson,
Anthony Fasano, Akin Ayodele, Nate Jones and Keith Davis.
Also gone are Trent Green and Cleo Lemon who combined for 12 starts
last season for the Dolphins, with Josh McCown (FA), John Henne
(2nd round pick), and John Beck (4 starts) battling for the starting
QB position in 2008. There are quite a few changes along the line,
especially at guard where veterans Steve McKinney, Trey Darilek
and Ikechuku Ndukwe will be battling with rookies Shawn Murphy and
Donald Thomas for a starting guard spot. It is likely that #1 pick
Jake Long will also be a new starter on that line, leaving questions
for the offense.
Fantasy Outlook: The Dolphins made a lot of moves and they are going
to be more competitive than last season (call me Captain Obvious).
Bill Parcells typically builds his team from the defense out, so
it should be no surprise that there are questions all over the place
on offense. Uncertainty at QB leaves that position one that no one
is going to want to touch, unless you are in a deep dynasty league
and you think that one of the 2nd round choices (Beck or Henne)
is going to be something some day. For now, the Dolphins have named
McCown as their starting QB.
The uncertainty of whether Ronnie
Brown can really come back this quickly from his devastating
ACL injury last season and whether Ricky
Williams can really stay off the wacky weed leaves the backfield
situation somewhat cloudy. Add to that uncertainty (notice the theme?),
some new guys on the offensive line and you have to think that either
Brown or Williams are extremely risky picks. WR Ted Ginn, Jr. has
a season under his belt and looks to have some help from FA signing,
Ernest Wilford,
on the other side, but neither is a top 40 WR because of the talent
at QB and their own receiving skills. The defense has been completely
revamped, but they are still a bottom 10 defense overall and one
that you will not likely even need to consider. Watch for third-year
receiver, Derek
Hagan who is having a great camp and currently running ahead
of Wilford.
New England Patriots
Key Additions: Re-signed WR Randy Moss, WR Jabar Gaffney, LB Tedy
Bruschi; Signed RB Lamont Jordan, TE Marcus Pollard, LB Victor Hobson,
CB Fernando Bryant, CB Lewis Sanders, CB Jason Webster, S Tank Williams
Key Losses: WR Donte' Stallworth, TE Kyle Brady, LB Rosevelt Colvin,
CB Asante Samuel, CB Randall Gay, S Eugene Wilson, SuperBowl XLII
Analysis: The big signing of the off-season for the Patriots was
the re-signing of Randy Moss who is looking to build on his record-setting
season of 2007. With the loss of WR Donte’ Stallworth, it
was important to re-sign Jabar Gaffney as he will compete with Chad
Jackson for the #3 WR spot on this potent offense. Gaffney is a
great hands guy who can play several spots and had taken over for
Stallworth towards the tail end of last season anyway. The team
lost several DB’s in Asante Samuel (Eagles), Randall Gay (Saints)
and Eugene Wilson (Buccaneers), and hopes to replace them with players
like free agents Fernando Bryant, Jason Webster, and Lewis Sanders,
rookies Terrence Wheatley and Jonathan Wilhite, as well as 2007-IR
player Mike Richardson.
The team also looks to have Victor Hobson and Tank Williams (being
used as a nickel & dime LB) to help provide some flexibility
for a defense that seemed to be missing something following the
injury to Roosevelt Colvin. Lamont Jordan was brought in to provide
some depth to the RB position that hopefully has Sammy Morris coming
back to full strength after suffering a broken sternum.
Fantasy Outlook: The team that set the record for most points in
a season has most of the key parts of that offense returning. Expect
there to be no hangover from their SB loss and the Patriots will
again be looking to run up the score against a schedule that is
one of the easiest in the league. Moss and Welker should be receiving
TD strikes from Tom Brady and even if there is a drop-off, you are
still looking at a 40+ TD season from Brady.
Laurence Maroney is going to be pushed by Jordan and Morris with
third down back Kevin Faulk being used to provide fresh legs throughout
the game. However, Maroney did show some flashes of hard running
with strong results late in the season. Some may wonder if the team
won’t try to run more this season given that the Patriots
ended up falling short of a SB-win. Well, those folks should quit
wondering because Tom Brady making decisions for the Patriots is
their best chance to win. The defense was the top unit in the NFL
last season and they got younger at a few positions, keeping them
as a top five option in 2008.
New York Jets
Key Additions: Traded for QB Brett Favre; Traded for DT Kris Jenkins;
Signed RB Jesse Chatman, RB Musa Smith, FB Tony Richardson, TE Bubba
Franks, G Alan Faneca, C Damien Woody, LB Calvin Pace, CB Ahmad
Carroll
Key Losses: QB Chad Pennington, WR Justin McCareins, T Anthony Clement,
LB Victor Hobson, LB Jonathan Vilma (traded)
Analysis: The Jets had a difficult 2007 season after being a surprise
playoff team in 2006. The team spent a lot of money on free agents
during the off-season, evidently seeing that their team more closely
resembled the 2006 upside than the 2007 failure. The addition of
Faneca and Woody should help anchor the offensive line that lost
T Anthony Clement. With the maturation of D’Brickashaw Ferguson,
the line looks much stronger than last season. There is more depth
in the backfield with Jesse Chatman and Musa Smith providing help
to Leon Washington as a backup for Thomas Jones. Big tackle Kris
Jenkins, along with rookie Vernon Gholston hope to turn a porous
run defense into a sturdier unit. The Jets losses to their LB corps
(Hobson and Vilma) were augmented by the big dollar signing of former
Cardinal Calvin Pace.
Fantasy Outlook: With Brett Favre suiting it up in the Meadowlands,
the offense may go through some growing pains early as Favre acquaints
himself with his new teammates. As the season wears on expect WR
Laveranues Coles to be a steady performer on one side with Jerricho
Cotchery coming off back-to-back 82-reception seasons and looking
to make that next step as an elite receiver. Both will be affected
by the uncertainty of the QB situation, but will be helped by the
improvements along the offensive line.
Also being helped by that line is Thomas
Jones who, while still gaining 1,000 yards rushing, still only
found the end zone one time via the rush. It should also be interesting
to see what the impact is of FB Tony
Richardson, who has been blocking for Adrian Peterson, Larry
Johnson and Priest Holmes in recent years. Bubba
Franks and rookie Dustin
Keller should provide some depth to the TE position with Chris
Baker originally holding out and looking for more long-term
security. The defense should be better than they were in 2007, but
there are still too many questions on both pass and run defense
to even consider them to be a viable fantasy defense.
Dallas Cowboys
Key Additions: Traded for CB Adam Jones; Signed T Cory Lekkerkerker,
LB Zach Thomas
Key Losses: RB Julius Jones, WR Terry Glenn, TE Anthony Fasano,
DT Jason Ferguson, LB Akin Ayodele, CB Keith Davis, CB Jacque Reeves
Analysis: The big signing was the trade for Adam “Don’t
call me Pac-man” Jones to help anchor a defensive backfield
that was weak last season. Jones has a ton of talent, but his antics
could wear on a team that is on the cusp of the SB. However, the
Cowboys took on Terrell Owens and it did not seem to affect their
ability to win. Losses in key depth positions due to trades with
the Dolphins might hurt the Cowboys, particularly on defense. Bringing
in Zach Thomas will help the run defense, but there are still questions
on the pass defense. The loss of Julius Jones is tempered by the
drafting of Felix Jones and Tashard Choice. The loss of Terry Glenn
means that Patrick Crayton should be ready to step up to a solid
#2 WR.
Fantasy Outlook: The Cowboys offense should be very strong again
this season. The Cowboys offense averaged over 28 points a game
and changes to this team do not indicate any letdown in the production
that this offense will have this season. With only 14 rushing TDs
in 2007(tied for 10th in the NFL), it is likely that the team will
have production closer to the 21 rushing TDs that they had in 2006.
With this and the fact that Julius Jones is no longer part of the
RBBC mix in Dallas, Marion Barber should be a better play this season
than last.
QB Tony Romo
has another season under his belt and his 36 TDs were second only
to Tom Brady, so you would have to consider Romo as a top tier QB
going as early as the 2nd round in many drafts. With Romo throwing
him the ball and being fully healthy, Terrell
Owens should be an even higher selection going in the top 15
spots in most leagues. Patrick
Crayton’s value takes a little jump with the release of Terry
Glenn, putting him as a nice potential sleep in many leagues
if he is available in the 9th or 10th round.
Jason Witten is a nice safety valve and end zone target for Romo,
leaving him as a definite top-five TE. The defense has made some
improvements in the secondary with the addition (assuming no further
problems) of Pac-man Jones, which leaves them as a top-eight defense
in most leagues.
New York Giants
Key Additions: QB David Carr, LB Danny Clark, and S Sammy Knight
Key Losses: TE Jeremy Shockey (traded), DE Michael Strahan (retired),
LB Kawika Mitchell, LB Reggie Torbor, S Gibril Wilson
Analysis: It is always a tough
off-season for a team coming off a championship. There are the players
who leave to take more money elsewhere based upon the team’s
success and the bulls-eye that is on the team throughout the upcoming
season. The Giants are going to feel that this season. With the
losses of several key components, like Strahan, Mitchell, Wilson,
and Torbor, the defense will have some challenges to overcome in
trying to maintain the pressure that they put on during their playoff
run.
The trade of Jeremy Shockey is going to hurt over the long haul
given that they have one less weapon on offense that was not overly
dynamic in the first place (14th in scoring in regular season).
There are questions as to how satisfied Plaxico Burress is going
to be.
Fantasy Outlook: Eli Manning hopes to build on a strong playoff
run with a solid season. With the exception of the loss of Shockey,
the offense remains relatively intact. Brandon Jacobs should help
with the extra year of experience, and the exciting Ahmad Bradshaw
will be competing for more reps at Jacobs’ expense this season.
Plaxico Burress is looking for big money in a new contract, but
there are many (including me) who think that the Giants have reached
their pinnacle with this offense and Eli Manning. With losses on
the defense and playing in the tough NFC East is going to have the
Giants defense being a borderline #1 defense in many leagues.
Philadelphia Eagles
Key Additions: Signed RB Lorenzo Booker, FB Dan Klecko, FB Luke
Lawton, TE Kris Wilson, DE Chris Clemons, LB Rocky Boiman, CB Asante
Samuel
Key Losses: RB Thomas Tapeh, DE Jevon Kearse, LB Takeo Spikes, and
CB William James
Analysis: The Eagles pony-ed up big bucks to sign Asante Samuel
giving them some very good depth at CB. The team hoped to trade
Lito Shepard for a 2nd round pick but have, thus far, found no takers.
The loss of Jevon Kearse and Takeo Spikes, leaves them a little
thinner on defense, but neither player really lived up to their
contracts. The Eagles added a complimentary player in Lorenzo Booker
to add some depth behind Brian Westbrook, but overall the team did
not make any blockbuster moves on offense, particularly adding to
their WR corps.
Fantasy Outlook: Brian Westbrook is a key to the Eagles offense.
He is one of the few every-down backs in the league and he puts
up total offense numbers that are amongst the best in the league.
This makes him a top-five RB and even more attractive in PPR leagues.
Donovan McNabb is a top 10 QB when healthy, but that risk of him
being healthy along with the team’s lack of signing top WR’s
leaves him a borderline top 12 QB in most leagues.
Reggie Brown
was expected to step up last season and become a solid WR as he
took over the #1 WR spot in Philadelphia. However, he had an up-and-down
season with only four TDs in three games over 80 yards. Kevin
Curtis was a pleasant surprise for many that reached for him
last season and it appears that McNabb likes the speedster as a
favorite target, making him a better option than Brown. The team
chose to designate LJ Smith as their franchise player despite a
season cut short by injury and only one score. Unless you are starting
two TEs (if so, why?), Smith will really only be a bye-week fill
in.
The defense is borderline top 15, but given their schedule and their
losses in the pass rush area, they are probably only good as a bye
week replacement if they have a favorable match-up.
Washington Redskins
Key Additions: Traded for DE Jason Taylor, DE Erasmus James; Signed
S Stuart Schweigert (released 8/4)
Key Losses: QB Mark Brunell, WR Keenan McCardell, WR Reche Caldwell,
WR Brandon Lloyd, DB Pierson Prioleau
Analysis: The team lost some secondary
offensive players in backups Brunell, McCardell, Caldwell and Lloyd.
However, they made some trades to shore up the defensive line with
Erasmus James (disappointing in Minnesota) and Jason Taylor (after
the injury to Philip Daniels). The secondary is still recovering
from the death of Sean Taylor last season, but LaRon Landry is ready
to step up and lead in his second year. The team has a new head
coach in Jim Zorn, who will be implementing a West Coast offensive
scheme that should be a little more dynamic than Joe Gibbs’
offense last season.
Fantasy Outlook: Jason Campbell gets his second full season as a
starter and he will be looking to improve upon last season when
he turned the ball over far too much (11 interceptions and eight
lost fumbles). If healthy, Clinton Portis will be carrying the ball
enough to easily make him a top 10 RB. The Redskin WRs will be led
by Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle-El. Moss is going to be outside
of the top 20 this season unless Campbell can step it up and get
more than the 12 passing TD’s he had in 2007. Randle-El might
crack the top 50, but he is probably only going to be a reserve
guy for teams hoping that he will be a deep sleeper. Don’t
count on that. Chris Cooley should have another strong season as
the safety valve for Campbell, offering those who skip over the
top four or five TEs some nice value. With Jason Taylor coming off
the edge, the team should get some more pressure on QB’s,
but they have not really made enough changes from last season to
consider more than a bye-week replacement defense.
Material from personal interviews, wire services, team beat
writers, and league and team sources were used in this report.
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